411's MMA Roundtable - UFC 142: Aldo vs. Mendes

Posted by Dan Plunkett on 01.13.2012

Jose Aldo puts his UFC featherweight title on the line against the undefeated Chad Mendes in the main event of UFC 142! Plus, Vitor Belfort takes on Anthony Johnson, Rousimar Palhares fights Mike Massenzio and more! Get ready for the show with our full roundtable preview and join 411 for LIVE coverage of the event on Saturday night!



WELCOME:
Jose Aldo puts his UFC featherweight title on the line against the undefeated Chad Mendes in the main event of UFC 142! In the co-main event, Anthony Johnson makes his middleweight debut against "The Phenom" Vitor Belfort. Also on the card, Rousimar Palhares battles Mike Massenzio. Plus, Edson Barboza fights Terry Etim, Erick Silva faces Carlo Prater, and more!

THE STAFF:

From MMA on Tap!, Jon Butterfield!

From Locked in the Guillotine, Robert Winfree!

From The View From the Cheap Seats, Scott Kuczkowski!

From MMA's 3R's, Jeffrey Harris!

From The Juggernaut MMA News Report, Jonathan Solomon!

And from Thoughts From Across the Pond, Alex Watt!



THE PRELIMINARY CARD:
All preliminary fights will air live on FX
Lightweight Bout: Felipe Arantes vs. Antonio Carvalho

Jon Butterfield: Felipe Arantes, Submission, Round Three
Robert Winfree: Felipe Arantes, Decision
Scott Kuczkowski: Antonio Carvalho, Decision.
Jeffrey Harris: Felipe Arantes, Submission, Round Three
Jonathan Solomon: Antonio Carvalho, Decision
Alex Watt: Antonio Carvalho, Decision
The staff calls it a draw, 3-3.

Welterweight Bout: Ricardo Funch vs. Mike Pyle

Jon Butterfield: Mike Pyle, Decision
Robert Winfree: Mike Pyle, Decision
Scott Kuczkowski: Mike Pyle, Decision.
Jeffrey Harris: Mike Pyle, Decision
Jonathan Solomon: Mike Pyle, Decision
Alex Watt: Mike Pyle, Decision
The staff picks Mike Pyle, 6-0.

Featherweight Bout: Yuri Alcantara vs. Michihiro Omigawa

Jon Butterfield: Yuri Alcantara, Decision
Robert Winfree:Michihiro Omigawa, Decision
Scott Kuczkowski: Yuri Alcantara, TKO, Round 2.
Jeffrey Harris: Yuri Alcantara, Decision
Jonathan Solomon: Yuri Alcantra, Decision
Alex Watt: Michihiro Omigawa, Decision
The staff picks Yuri Alcantara, 4-2.

Heavyweight Bout: Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Edinaldo Oliveira

Jon Butterfield: Edinaldo Oliveira, TKO, Round Two
Robert Winfree:Ednaldo Oliveria, TKO Round 1
Scott Kuczkowski: Ednaldo Oliveira, TKO, Round 1.
Jeffrey Harris: Edinaldo Oliveira, TKO, Round One
Jonathan Solomon: Ednaldo Oliveira, Decision
Alex Watt: Edinaldo Oliveira, Decision
The staff picks Edinaldo Oliveira, 6-0.

Lightweight Bout: Thiago Tavares vs. Sam Stout

Jon Butterfield: Sam Stout, Decision
Robert Winfree:Sam Stout, Decision
Scott Kuczkowski: Sam Stout, TKO, Round 1.
Jeffrey Harris: Sam Stout, Decision
Jonathan Solomon: Sam Stout, TKO, Round 2
Alex Watt: Sam Stout, Decision
The staff picks Sam Stout, 6-0.

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THE MAIN CARD:
Lightweight Bout: Edson Barboza vs. Terry Etim

Jon Butterfield: It's easy to forget how good Terry Etim is in wake of a couple of extended absences, but he's an extremely skilled stand up fighter who possesses some genuinely slick submission skills. Many will overlook him in this fight for no other reason than they've seen more of Edson Barboza lately, and they understand that he's something of a Muay Thai wunderkind. Unfortunately, however, those buying into the Barboza hype train need to look a little closer, because the reality is, as good as he is to watch, he struggled to get past Njokuani and Pearson. Now I firmly believe Etim could hang with those particular fighters fairly comfortably on the feet, albeit if only to buy more time to work towards yet another submission victory. What I'm saying is, don't be fooled into thinking this is striker vs grappler. It isn't – and Etim's advantages in the submissions game far, far outstrip Barboza's advantages in the striking department. The smart money is on Etim, I feel.

Winner: Terry Etim, Submission, Round Three

Robert Winfree: Edson Barboza emerged onto the scene with a couple of very good performances that showcased his great striking. He even landed a wheel kick against Anthony Njokuani in the closing seconds of their fight. While his fight with Ross Pearson probably should have gone to the Brit, Barboza is clearly riding high. Terry Etim just returned from a lengthy break by submitting Edward Faaloloto in seventeen seconds. Etim is a very talented fighter with good submissions and crisp striking. Etims only losses in the UFC have been to guys who were superior wrestlers and could control him. Barboza doesn't fall into that category.

Winner:Terry Etim, TKO Round 2

Scott Kuczkowski: Barboza probably has the advantage on the feet with his speed, but Etim is no slouch either. Barboza will want to keep this on the feet where his Muay Thai will allow him to pepper Etim and perhaps even knock him out or cripple him with leg kicks. Etim will want to get this to the ground where he might have strength and size advantage. This will be a tough fight for Etim, as Barboza is tough to handle, but if he can get him to the ground I think he might be able to hand Barboza his first loss.

Winner: Terry Etim, Decision.

Jeffrey Harris: It's easy to forget how good Terry Etim is in wake of a couple of extended absences, but he's an extremely skilled stand up fighter who possesses some genuinely slick submission skills. Many will overlook him in this fight for no other reason than they've seen more of Edson Barboza lately, and they understand that he's something of a Muay Thai wunderkind. Unfortunately, however, those buying into the Barboza hype train need to look a little closer, because the reality is, as good as he is to watch, he struggled to get past Njokuani and Pearson. Now I firmly believe Etim could hang with those particular fighters fairly comfortably on the feet, albeit if only to buy more time to work towards yet another submission victory. What I'm saying is, don't be fooled into thinking this is striker vs grappler. It isn't – and Etim's advantages in the submissions game far, far outstrip Barboza's advantages in the striking department. The smart money is on Etim, I feel.

Winner: Terry Etim, Submission, Round Three

Jonathan Solomon: On paper this is a close lightweight battle between the striker (Barboza) and the grappler (Etim). While Terry Etim is able to use his striking to set-up his ground work, Barboza is a notoriously powerful striker. Etim will want to keep the fight close, perhaps even working from the clinch to set-up his takedown attempts. Meanwhile, Barboza should be maintaining his lateral movement and making Etim pay for looking to shoot in. If Etim can have any success striking, it will make his game plan all the more easier to implement. The key is whether Barboza will be able to keep Etim at a distance to prevent from being put on his back.

Winner: Edson Barboza, Decision

Alex Watt: Edson Barboza, the last time he fought in Brazil, was handed a bit of a gift hometown judges decision with his victory over Ross Pearson, a fight I felt that "The Real Deal" had edged. As such, Terry Etim (another British opponent for Barboza in Brazil) will probably have to finish this fight within the distance in order to win in Rio. That is easier said than done however when he is fighting a Muay Thai practictioner with the skills of Barboza. If this fight stays on the feet you have to favour Barboza, as he should be able to pick Etim apart using his flashy strikes. Barboza's leg kicks are brutal but I wouldn't expect him to use them much in this contest for fear of Etim countering with a takedown. Indeed, if this fight hits the mat then Etim has to be favoured due to his size and his submission skills. This one could go either way but I feel that Etim should be able to hold his own on the feet long enough to get the fight to the ground and score the submission win.

Winner: Terry Etim, Submission, Round 2

The staff picks Terry Etim, 5-1.

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Welterweight Bout: Erick Silva vs. Carlo Prater

Jon Butterfield: This is a great opportunity for Erick Silva to notch up his second UFC victory, since I have to give him the advantage both on the feet and on the mat. Prater is a veteran, however, and will be difficult to stop – but if Drew Fickett and Brock Larson can do it, I'm pretty sure Erick Silva can too. As long as Erick doesn't make any obvious mistakes, I don't see Prater as too much of a threat.

Winner: Erick Silva, Submission, Round Two

Robert Winfree:Um, not sure why this is on the main card, but alright. This is really Silva's fight to lose as he should hold advantages on the feet or on the mat as long as he avoids doing anything really stupid he should take this one.

Winner:Erick Silva, Decision

Scott Kuczkowski: Prater is a tough journeyman fighter who comes in with a lot of experience and has mostly lost at the hands of strong wrestlers. Silva on the other hand has only lost once, but has mostly only fought against local competition. If this fight goes to the ground, Prater will probably look for the submission. Silva is no slouch, but I think Prater's experience will be too much for him.

Winner: Carlo Prater, Submission, Round 2.

Jeffrey Harris: New welterweight prospect Erick Silva who had an impressive UFC debut last year now faces Strikeforce veteran Carlo Prater. Prater has a ton of fights on his record and he's fought a lot of tough guys but he's also lost 10 times. Silva showed extremely good striking and ability to finish in his first fight where he beat Luis Ramos. He's also a got a strong grappling background in Judo and BJJ. I'm going with Silva to get a quick knockout or submission this time.

Winner: Erick Silva, Submission, Round One

Jonathan Solomon: Erick Silva is a great prospect who looked the part in his UFC debut last year winning by quick knockout. MMA vet Carlo Prater took this fight on about a month's notice and will make his UFC debut here after spending years fighting in all sorts of organizations. Simply put, Silva is the more dynamic striker and should not be out of his league if the fight hits the ground. On paper, this is totally Silva's fight to lose.

Winner: Erick Silva, TKO, Round 2

Alex Watt: Erick Silva looked highly impressive in his UFC debut scoring a fast knockout. Carlo Prater is a tough journeyman fighter with good ground skills. This fight could come down to who can get the fight where they want it and personally I favour Silva scoring another TKO.

Winner: Erick Silva, TKO, Round 2

The staff picks Erick Silva, 5-1.

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Middleweight Bout: Rousimar Palhares (#14 MW) vs. Mike Massenzio

Jon Butterfield: Every now and again a fight comes along that looks like such a mismatch that I just can't give one of the fighters even the slightest chance. That's how I feel about this one, and that probably means Massenzio CRUSHES Palhares with a 15 second TKO or something – but you know what, even if I had a time machine, even I went forward a week, even if I SAW MASSENZIO WIN WITH MY OWN EYES, and even if I came back to the present, I STILL wouldn't fancy his chances. If (or when) Palhares wins, I don't really see how he benefits from this match up unless he puts on a clinic and bags a highlight reel submission. It really does look a strange piece of matchmaking, and it's obviously only here so the Brazilian fighter in front of a Brazilian audience.

Winner: Rousimar Palhares, Submission, Round One

Robert Winfree:Well, this isn't going to be pretty. Mike Massenzio is a wrestler, that's by and large what he brings to the table along with some decent brawling. Really he's being fed to Palhares here to make the native look good. Palhares is a darn good fighter whose issues seem to be more mental than anything. He has some extremely good submission skills, and is comprehensively better than Massenzio pretty much everywhere. Unless he makes a huge mental mistake Palhares will tear off a limb and add it to his collection.

Winner:Rousimar Palhares, Submission Round 1

Scott Kuczkowski: Palhares is about as whacko as you can get and still be allowed out of the house unsupervised, which leads me to believe Massenzio is being brought in solely to lose to him. Massenzio is a well-rounded fighter, but I don't think he has the skills to compete with Palhares when this fight hits the ground (and it will). Palhares will probably score a takedown and submit Massenzio early in the fight. Unless he jumps on the cage early because he's mistakenly thought he's won or gets distracted because he thinks Massenzio is greased, Palhares should win this handily.

Winner: Rousimar Palhares, Submission, Round 1.

Jeffrey Harris: On paper this looks like a fight tailor made for Palhares to win. Massenzio is a decent fighter and he's tough but he's still 2-3 in the UFC. He was previously submitted by Brian Stann. So with that in mind, as long as Palhares doesn't go nuts and lose his head in the cage again he should take this fight rather easily. Even with his gaffe in the Miller fight, Palhares still managed to come out with the win. While I think Palhares' rather odd personality and penchant for going crazy for the cage will prevent him from ever becoming a champion, I do think he will still manage to become a force at middleweight. Palhares gets the win here.

Winner: Rousimar Palhares, Submission, Round One

Jonathan Solomon: Palhares is a strong grappler with sincerely dangerous potential if he can grab hold of a leg, a foot or an ankle. In his UFC career, he has proven to be a versatile fighter who can mix takedowns in with his Jiu-Jitsu. He was able to take Nate Marquardt down before the grease-incident led to the fight ending TKO. He even brought the fight to Dan Henderson in 2008 and lost a decision. You have to be at a high level to be able to fend off Palhares' attacks. Is Mike Massenzio that guy? He returned to middleweight in October, beating Steve Cantwell in a decision. He implemented his striking in that fight to win and was solid in defending Cantwell's submission attacks. However, Palhares should be able to dictate the pace of the fight and have a lot of success in taking the fight to the ground. The only way Massenzio can win is if he hurts Palhares with his boxing and uses his wrestling to keep the fight standing for three rounds.

Winner: Rousimar Palhares, Submission, Round 2

Alex Watt: Massenzio is a well rounded fighter who is tough as nails but this fight looks to be tailor made for Palhares to get a win in his home country. With Massenzio having proved vulnerable to submissions in the past I can't see this going any other way than a Palhares win via leglock. That is, unless Palhares has another brain fart inside the Octagon…

Winner: Rousimar Palhares, Submission, Round 1

The staff picks Rousimar Palhares, 6-0.

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Middleweight Bout: Vitor Belfort (#6 MW) vs. Anthony Johnson

Jon Butterfield: If this were a stand up battle, Vitor Belfort would win hands down. However it's NOT, and I doubt very much that ‘Rumble' is stupid enough to stand with Belfort when he wouldn't even stand with Dan Hardy. He'll know his big advantage will be in the wrestling department, but the question is, when it hits the mat can he actually control the fight? After all, Vitor Belfort has beaten FAR better wrestlers than Johnson, and not always with flash (T)KOs. He beat Heath Herring over three rounds, did enough to DESERVE a win over Tito Ortiz (not that he got it), and on top of that, he's got the sub-one minute victories over Randy Couture and Matt Lindland. Plus, he's genuinely looking better than he's ever looked before (even if that IS a mile behind Anderson Silva). It just doesn't make good reading for Johnson, but never say never.

Winner: Vitor Belfort, TKO, Round One

Robert Winfree:This should be an interesting one. This is Anthony Johnson's first fight at 185 and he's instantly being thrown to the wolves. While I think Johnson at middleweight will be successful, Belfort is just too much too soon I think. Vitor seems to be mostly over the mental issues that plagued his early career, and has done well at middleweight so far. Well, apart from forever being added to knockout highlight reels because of Anderson Silva. For Johnson, his best path to victory lies in wrestling, but he has serious power in his hands and feet. I wouldn't be shocked if 'Rumble' pulled this one out.

Winner: Vitor Belfort, TKO Round 1


Scott Kuczkowski: If Vitor can score early and fast in this fight, then he should be able to blitz Johnson and score a quick win. Johnson will have a 2 inch height advantage and a 4 inch reach advantage, so he shouldn't be lost in these exchanges, but Vitor can put him to sleep if he scores cleanly. However, if Johnson survives some of these striking exchanges and can take Vitor down a few times, he will have a good chance at winning. Belfort's biggest weakness is that he seems to crumble if the fight isn't going his way, so if Johnson can give him a lot of problems, he has a chance to win this fight. If Johnson can follow Randy Couture's gameplan and clinch with Belfort against the cage (or take him down) and tire him out, then he should be able to take the decision.

Winner: Anthony Johnson, Decision.

Jeffrey Harris: When I first heard about this match-up and Anthony Johnson finally moving up to middleweight, I got a little excited. Johnson moving up in weight was long overdue, especially when he's so huge and he's cutting down from 220 and even as high as 230 pounds before a fight to get down to welterweight. Johnson I think as long as he doesn't try and stand and trade too much with Belfort I think can come out of this with the victory. Belfort has quick and heavy hands but he is also a very inconsistent fighter throughout the years. Belfort usually gasses if he gets out of the first round and if he doesn't pull the trigger first, that's usually the sign he will lose the fight. I see this fight going a little bit like Belfort/Hendo at Pride 33 and Johnson will out-wrestle Belfort to get the decision win. Belfort is a very good fighter, but mentally he just seems to psyche himself out at times and lose the fight mentally before it begins.

Winner: Anthony Johnson, Decision.

Jonathan Solomon: This is an intriguing match-up for Rumble Johnson in his step up to middleweight. You assume that not having to cut so much weight will benefit him, leaving him to be a bigger and stronger middleweight. Johnson does have a wrestling game worth noting, not to mention his effective kickboxing. He has power and speed whether it be with his hands or legs. The problem I foresee is simply, Vitor Belfort is one hell of a striker. Violently effective when he lets his hands go. If Belfort can land a cluster of punches early on, this will be a short fight. If Johnson can get past the first several minutes, even past the first round, this will be a close fight. I don't trust Belfort's conditioning to stand up if this fight goes into the third round. Getting there will be the key for Johnson and at some point, his chin will have to prove to be made of granite. I must see it to believe it.

Winner: Vitor Belfort, TKO, Round 1

Alex Watt: First of all, I think we can all agree that this is a much better weight class for Anthony Johnson than 170lbs. On paper, Johnson's middleweight debut against Belfort could be a great striking battle but it is more likely that wrestler "Rumble" will make his not so welcome return in Rio. It is a strategy which could bring him success, if he keeps taking Belfort down and actually works towards a finish (something he failed to do when he used a wrestling based strategy against Dan Hardy). However, I ultimately cannot see him getting past a rejuvenated "Phenom" in Brazil. I think Johnson will struggle with the hand speed and explosive power of Belfort and eventually the Brazilian will land a flurry to put Johnson down and out.

Winner: Vitor Belfort

The staff picks Vitor Belfort, 4-2.

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UFC Featherweight Championship Bout: Jose Aldo (#1 FW) vs. Chad Mendes (#2 FW)

Jon Butterfield: Jose Aldo's record speaks for itself. He's 20-1, has lethal striking, and in the WEC, he cleared the opposition out of the featherweight throne room and took his place in the P4P top 3. Yet in the UFC, he hasn't looked nearly as dominant. Aldo out-struck (but failed to finish) Mark Hominick for the better part of five rounds, before trading points with company mainstay Kenny Florian in an oddly uninspiring bout. Whilst it's true that a Champion doesn't need to inspire to keep a firm grasp on his belt, it helps people back you if you actually look a cut above. Aldo HASN'T looked a cut above, and he's been dropping rounds when he should have been finishing fights. Decision specialist Chad Mendes is the LAST man you want to face when that's the case. I'm going to go out on a limb here and predict an upset, with Mendes claiming the featherweight belt and Aldo moving up to 155. It can't just be my imagination that cutting weight has been hurting Aldo, because there's no way in hell he's not (ordinarily) streets ahead of Hominick – and if he's even a step slow defending takedowns and stopping Mendes pressuring him, he's going to lose.

Winner: Chad Mendes, Decision

Robert Winfree:It seems people picking this fight either fall into the "Aldo isn't as good as he used to be" camp, or the "Aldo can't be beaten at featherweight" camp. People expecting to see the Jose Aldo of old are constantly disappointed because he isn't. He's facing a much higher level of competition, people are studying him much more closely, and he's added a fair amount of muscle to his frame. For Mendes, he's an undefeated wrestling specialist. Wrestling is pretty much all Mendes brings to the table, but he is damn good at it. For me, I keep coming back to the fact that Aldo made his name beating wrestlers, and has been training with Gray Maynard for this fight. While we may not see the Aldo of old, I have a hard time picking against him despite the fact that Mendes is a damn good fighter.

Winner:Jose Aldo, Decision



Scott Kuczkowski: I think Mendes will be foolish if he does anything other than use his striking to set up takedowns. Aldo will own all the exchanges on the feet, but if Mendes can get this fight to the ground and hold Aldo down while staying busy, then he can steal the rounds. Additionally, if Aldo begins to anticipate the takedowns, Mendes could use that to score on the feet. Aldo will have to defend the takedowns and punish Mendes each time he moves in. Aldo has great knees and will need to time Mendes moving in to make him hesitate before each subsequent takedown attempt. If Aldo can dictate the pace of the bout on the feet, he should win. Conversely, Mendes really only needs to get Aldo down and hold him down to steal three rounds, after which he could conceivably win a decision. I think the early rounds will be close, which will be when Aldo has the best chances to win. If Mendes can score takedowns while simultaneously tiring Aldo, then he should take the decision. In light of how Aldo has looked in recent bouts, I'm leaning towards Mendes taking this fight by decision and becoming the new Featherweight Champion.

Winner: Chad Mendes, Decision.

Jeffrey Harris: Is Jose Aldo the toughest featherweight around? No question. Aldo has gone undefeated in WEC and his current UFC run. He went on a tear to get to the title and no one has been able to wrest it away from him since. However since going to the UFC, Aldo has not looked as dangerous and the force to be reckoned with he used to be. He's a good striker. He showed good takedown defense against Kenny Florian. But Aldo has struggled a lot more in his recent UFC fights as well. Maybe the competition is getting tougher, well Chad Mendes is as tough as they come. In this sport it is not always about who is better, but who has the right gameplan and how fighter styles match-up. Mendes is undefeated at featherweight and he's shown to know how to deal with Brazilians with strong grappling and ground games even off their backs. If Mendes is prepared to deal with Aldo's strong leg kicks and makes it a dirty fight for Aldo and pushes the pace and the takedowns he can win this. And that is what I am betting on. Mendes wears down Aldo and takes the title.

Winner: Chad Mendes, Decision

Jonathan Solomon: Perhaps I think too highly of Jose Aldo, but he's given no reason to think he cannot handle what Chad Mendes offers. Aldo has fought big wrestlers and neither Mike Brown nor Urijah Faber could take him down with much success. Some people point to last year's fight with Mark Hominick as evidence that he may tire over the course of a five round fight. I'm not sold there, believing Aldo's illness can be attributed to that rather than struggles with cutting weight. Aside from that, what chance does Mendes have of beating him? He has not proven to have knockout power and he will have to hurt Aldo before you can even talk about the possibility of a submission. The simplest route would be a decision using his wrestling credentials. Instead, I see Aldo's ability to sprawl and brawl being the difference maker. Mendes has never fought a fighter as dynamic as Aldo and it will show.

Winner: Your Winner and STILL UFC Featherweight Champion, Jose Aldo, TKO, Round 3

Alex Watt: As ever, I have previewed this fight in great detail in Thoughts From Across The Pond which is available to read on the main page today. Here is my conclusion from that fascinating article:

So, to conclude, who do I favour in this fight? What is clear is that for Mendes to have any success he needs to take this fight to the mat frequently and use a ground and pound attack on his foe. If he can control Aldo on the floor, which will be easier said than done, then perhaps he can take the champion out of his comfort zone and test the shaky cardio of the Brazilian. However, will Mendes have the confidence to constantly dart into Aldo's striking range for takedowns or will he be too wary of the champion's striking? I have a feeling that the latter will end up being the case, a factor which will allow Aldo to pick Mendes apart from range using his brutal leg kicks and pinpoint striking. On the feet this is a complete mismatch and that, combined with Aldo's high level takedown defence, leads me to believe that this will be another fairly comfortable title defence for "Scarface". Aldo will want to put on a good show in front of the Brazilian fans and will constantly look for the finish but I think a dominant decision win for the champion is a more likely bet.

Winner: Jose Aldo, Decision

The staff calls it a draw, 3-3.

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