411's MMA Roundtable - UFC on FX 1: Guillard vs. Miller

Posted by Dan Plunkett on 01.20.2012

Lightweight contenders Melvin Guillard and Jim Miller square off in the main event of UFC on FX 1, Duane Ludwig takes on Josh Neer and more! Check out the full roundtable preview and join 411 for LIVE coverage of the event Friday night!



WELCOME:
Lightweight contenders Jim Miller and Melvin Guillard square off in the main event of UFC on FX 1! In the co-main event, Duane "Bang" Ludwig takes on Josh Neer. Also, Mike Easton battles Jared Papazian, Pat Barry faces Christian Morecraft, and more!

THE STAFF:

From The MMA 5 & 1, Stewart Lange!

From MMA on Tap!, Jon Butterfield!

From MMA's 3R's, Jeffrey Harris!

From The View From the Cheap Seats, Scott Kuczkowski!

From Locked in the Guillotine, Robert Winfree!

And from The Greatest MMA News Column, Dan Plunkett!



THE PRELIMINARY CARD:
All preliminary fights will air live on Fuel TV
Bantamweight Bout: Joseph Sandoval vs. Nick Denis

Stewart Lange: Joseph Sandoval, TKO, Round 2
Jon Butterfield Nick Denis, TKO, Round One
Jeffrey Harris: Nick Denis, TKO, Round One
Scott Kuczkowski: Nick Denis, TKO, Round 1.
Robert Winfree: Nick Denis, TKO Round 1
Dan Plunkett: Denis, TKO, Round 2.
The staff picks Nick Denis, 5-1.

Featherweight Bout: Daniel Pineda vs. Pat Schilling

Stewart Lange: Pat Schilling, Decision
Jon Butterfield Daniel Pineda, TKO, Round Two
Jeffrey Harris: Daniel Pineda, TKO, Round Two
Scott Kuczkowski: Pat Schilling, Submission, Round 1.
Robert Winfree: Pat Schilling, Decision
Dan Plunkett: Schilling, Decision.
The staff picks Pat Schilling, 4-2.

Lightweight Bout: Fabricio Camoes vs. Tom Hayden

Stewart Lange: Fabricio Camoes, Submission, Round 2
Jon Butterfield Fabricio Camoes, Decision
Jeffrey Harris: Fabricio Camoes, Decision
Scott Kuczkowski: Fabricio Camoes, Submission, Round 1.
Robert Winfree: Fabricio Camoes, Submission Round 3
Dan Plunkett: Camoes, Decision.
The staff picks Fabricio Camoes, 6-0.

Welterweight Bout: Charlie Brenneman vs. Daniel Roberts
Stewart Lange: Charlie Brenneman. Decision
Jon Butterfield Charlie Brenneman, Decision
Jeffrey Harris: Charlie Brenneman, Decision
Scott Kuczkowski: Charlie Brenneman, Decision.
Robert Winfree: Charlie Brenneman, Decision
Dan Plunkett: Charlie Brenneman, Decision.
The staff picks Charlie Brenneman, 6-0.

Lightweight Bout: Kamal Shalorus vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov

Stewart Lange: Kamal Sholorus, TKO, Round 1
Jon Butterfield Kamal Shalorus, Decision
Jeffrey Harris: Kamal Shalorus, Decision
Scott Kuczkowski: Kamal Shalorus, Decision.
Robert Winfree:Kamal Shalorus, Decision
Dan Plunkett: Shalorus, Decision.
The staff picks Kamal Shalorus, 6-0.

Middleweight Bout: Jorge Rivera vs. Eric Shafer

Stewart Lange: Jorge Rivera, TKO, Round 2
Jon Butterfield Jorge Rivera, TKO, Round Three
Jeffrey Harris: Eric Shafer, Decision
Scott Kuczkowski: Eric Shafer, Submission, Round 2.
Robert Winfree: Eric Shafer, Submission Round 2
Dan Plunkett: Rivera, Decision.
The staff calls it a draw, 3-3.

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THE MAIN CARD:
Heavyweight Bout: Pat Barry vs. Christian Morecraft

Jon Butterfield: I like both these fighters even they're hardly pulling up any trees at the moment. Barry, for his part, is an outstanding striker who really lacks any secondary dimension, while Morecraft has a questionable chin for a man mountain his size but a decent all round game. I don't think Morecraft's height and bulk or any other perceived advantage he has will matter to Barry, who will likely wade through and score a comprehensive KO to get back on track. Morecraft would be best served taking it down to the mat, but the only time I've seen him win on the floor was when Sean McCorkle made him do so, which tells me he may lack the required urgency to try and out-wrestle Barry. We'll see.

Winner: Pat Barry, KO, Round One

Jeffrey Harris: An interesting heavyweight bout to the say the least. Morecraft does have some distinct advantages over Barry, specifically his wrestling and grappling experience. Barry is a good striker and he's got sick leg kicks but he's consistently had weak submission and takedown defense throughout his UFC career. Morecraft was able to submit Sean McCorkle, and I think he will be able to submit Pat Barry.

Winner: Christian Morecraft, Submission, Round One

Scott Kuczkowski: O.K., we have HD vs. World of Morecraft. Barry will obviously be going for the knockout since he doesn't have much else in his arsenal to win this fight with. Morecraft will be smart to get this fight to the ground and force Barry to carry his weight. If Morecraft can get this to the ground, he should be able to either TKO or submit Barry inside of a round or two. If he can't do that and he starts eating leg kicks, he could crumble in the third round. I think Morecraft will be more successful in this bout and will give Barry his third loss in a row and perhaps his UFC walking papers.

Winner: Christian Morecraft, TKO, Round 2.

Robert Winfree: These two guys are fighting for their jobs here, Barry is on a two fight losing streak and Morecraft is just 1-2 in the promotion. Morecraft seems to have trouble with good strikers, and Barry certainly qualifies as one of those. That said, Morecraft is the physically larger man who should try and clinch and wrestle Barry to the ground. I think Pat Barry comes out and takes this one, he likely knows his job is on the line and will look to make a statement.

Winner: Pat Barry, TKO Round 2

Dan Plunkett: Pat Barry has enough talent that he really shouldn't lose this fight. Morecraft will enjoy a big size advantage, but he's a lower level fighter in the thinnest division in the UFC. I think Barry's vastly superior striking wins him this fight.

Winner: Barry, TKO, Round 2.

The staff picks Pat Barry, 3-2.

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Bantamweight Bout: Mike Easton vs. Jared Papazian

Jon Butterfield: While I like the idea of promoting bantamweight prospects early (so that we've, you know, actually heard of them before they're fighting in contender eliminator bouts), this one kind of takes the biscuit. I don't care who wins, largely because I have no idea who Jared Papazian is. Mike Easton seems to have a bit of promise, but he's still something of an unknown quantity to me. I'll pick blind and say Easton wins.

Winner: Mike Easton, TKO, Round Two

Jeffrey Harris: These are two new bantamweights relatively new in the UFC. Easton won his UFC debut against Byron Bloodworth. Papazian is a veteran of King of The Cage and BAMMA. Not having seen much footage of either guy, this is a bit of a tough call. Both guys are on winning streaks. This is a bit of an odd choice for the main card, but it's really not a bad way to showcase the bantamweights and give them an opportunity to re-introduce the division to the FX audience. For this fight I am going with Easton by a knockout or early TKO.

Winner: Mike Easton, TKO, Round One

Scott Kuczkowski: I don't know much about Papazian aside from the fact he's won more fights by decision than by TKO/submissions combined, which doesn't make him sound very exciting. Having said that, Easton put on a nice show in his octagon debut, so I'm leaning towards him to go in for the kill and try to make something happen in this bout.

Winner: Mike Easton, TKO, Round 2.

Robert Winfree: Mike Easton is a beat at 135, his nickname of the "The Hulk" is well earned. He's about as stacked as you can get for the division, and his only career loss came because of an injury. Papazian is making his UFC debut here, and I don't see him faring all that well.

Winner: Mike Easton, TKO Round 2

Dan Plunket: Mike Easton is a very talented, well-rounded fighter. I don't think Papazian gives him any problems.

Winner: Easton, Submission, Round 1.

The staff picks Mike Easton, 5-0.

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Welterweight Bout: Duane Ludwig vs. Josh Neer

Jon Butterfield: Duane Ludwig has, surprisingly, put a bit of a run together in the UFC despite relying a little too heavily on his effective stand up. Neither Nick Osipczak or Amir Sadollah could get their hands on Ludwig long enough to earn a decision, and I'm not sure how likely it is that Neer will look to keep it against the cage or off the feet either. In theory, then, Ludwig has a decent chance, so I'll say he wins it, but he's not the kind of guy I'd put a lot of stock in as a long term contender. Still, as long as it's a good fight, does it matter?

Winner: Duane Ludwig, Decision

Jeffrey Harris: In terms of striking and stand-up skills this is a very good fight and both these guys, long time MMA journeymen, look very evenly matched. Off his back and grappling wise, I want to give the edge to Neer who has submitted Melvin Guillard and Mac Danzig in his UFC career. Ludwig has a lot of experience and he's 2-2 in his current UFC run. For this fight, I think Ludwig will be the one playing it a little bit more safe and I think he will be hitting and moving a lot in order to eke out the decision.

Winner: Duane Ludwig, Decision

Scott Kuczkowski: The story of this bout is pretty simple; Ludwig is a great striker while Neer is a well-rounded veteran. If Neer chooses to stand and trade with Ludwig, then this fight might not end well for him. I doubt Neer will do that, and I think he will get this to the ground where he will have the advantage. Once on the ground, I see Neer submitting Ludwig, probably in the first round.

Winner: Josh Neer, Submission, Round 1.

Robert Winfree: Two longtime veterans of the sport square off here. This fight is designed to simply be entertaining as neither man is a threat to the belt in the division, or likely to make it into the top fifteen for the remainder of their careers. Neer is a hard nosed veteran fighter who enjoys a good brawl but is well versed in all aspects of the game. Ludwig is one of the best strikers in the division, but has also worked to improve his all around game. This should be a fairly entertaining fight, but I think Ludwig is the better fighter.

Winner: Duane Ludwig, Decision

Dan Plunkett: All signs point to this being a striking match. Neer would be the better fighter on the ground, but he's been vocal about wanting to stand-up in the past couple of years and leading into this fight. Ludwig has the better striking background, so I'm going with him here.

Winner: Ludwig, Decision.

The staff picks Duane Ludwig, 4-1.

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Lightweight Bout: Melvin Guillard (#14 LW) vs. Jim Miller (#9 LW)

Jon Butterfield: I actually got asked to predict the winner of this fight in this week's Fact or Fiction, so I've had quite a while to chew it over. I still can't see any reason to change my mind. Guillard is an excellent striker with good takedown defence and outstanding athleticism – but I just think this is Miller's fight to lose. Guillard is going to be in a world of trouble if the tenacious, relentless Miller brother can get his hands on him, and I just don't like his chances of fending off every single takedown or clinch attempt, let alone his chances of slipping out of Miller's ground game. If he can, however, it will be telling. I just don't think he will. Miller will impose his will here, and that's kind of a good summary of both these guys' careers: Miller will never quit trying to implement his ground game, whereas Guillard's mental toughness just isn't at the level it needs to be.

Winner: Jim Miller, Submission, Round Two

Jeffrey Harris: Mentally I've been going back and forth with this fight. Guillard did get really arrogant and overconfident for his last fight. Guillard is a very good fighter and his striking and boxing are forces to be reckoned with inside the cage. He's a decent wrestler and the way he took out rising star Evan Dunham was really impressive. However, my gut just wants me to go with Miller. Of the two, I just find Guillard to be the one more likely to make a mistake. Miller's a proven submission master inside the cage and he's definitely earned his BJJ blackbelt. His striking is always very accurate and technical as well. I think it will be close, but Miller takes this home by decision if not by submission earlier in the fight.

Winner: Jim Miller, Decision

Scott Kuczkowski: I think Miller will stand and trade long enough to see an opening and take Guillard down. This will be no easy feat, but I think Miller will be successful. Once on the ground, Miller will probably work for some type of submission and try to put Guillard away quickly. If Miller cannot secure a takedown, he has to look out for Guillard's striking, which can end the fight quickly. However, whereas Guillard has only has a puncher's chance to win this fight, Miller can submit Guillard or merely outwrestle and outgrapple him for three rounds to take the decision.

Winner: Jim Miller, Submission, Round 1.

Robert Winfree: This should be a dandy of a fight since Jim Miller is rarely in a boring contest, and win or lose Melvin Guillard does either in pretty spectacular fashion. Miller is the better all around fighter, and has only ever lost to some of the very best in the division. Guillard has struggled to put all the pieces together, but given his incredibly physical gifts he should never be counted out of a fight. I just have a hard time seeing Miller lose to anyone who isn't at the very top of the division, and Guillard isn't. Millers wrestling and submissions should prevail here, especially if the fight gets out of the first.

Winner: Jim Miller, Submission Round 2

Dan Plunkett: On paper this match-up favors Melvin Guillard. He's the better striker, more powerful, and has very good takedown defense. Miller is extremely tough, but his striking has never been anything special and his wrestling isn't on a level where I can confidently state he will be able to take Guillard down. However, Guillard has mentally faltered in fights in the past, including in his most recent fight against Joe Lauzon. With that in mind, it makes this fight very difficult to predict with any certainty. I'm going with Guillard based on his talent, but Miller can certainly come out of this fight on top.

Winner: Guillard, Decision.

The staff picks Jim Miller, 4-1.

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