The Blueprint 1.27.12: Revolutionary War
Posted by Patrick Mullin on 01.27.2012
Injuries and forces beyond our control have brought together two of the biggest mouths in MMA for a showdown on Fox. TUF 3 winner Michael "The Count" Bisping and Middleweight Champion of his own mind Chael Sonnen will do battle Saturday night in order to determine a challenger for UFC middleweight champion Anderson Silva. While the war of words will be legendary and mouths will indeed roar as never before, they still have to actually fight. We'll tell you who wins and why.
Welcome back readers! This is The Blueprint and let me preface by saying our win streak was finally snapped on last Friday's card when Melvin Guillard lost to Jim Miller bringing our record since our return to 4-1. Its okay, we can get back on track and rediscover our winning ways. Our bout today features two of the most unlikeable fighters in MMA today. In one corner you have the cocky Brit Michael Bisping fresh off a grudge fight victory against Jason Miller, and Chael "Yeah I tapped out but I still won" Sonnen who defeated Brian Stann via submission in his last bout. We'll start our look at this fight with the guy you should never buy a house from.
Chael Sonnen Height: 6'1 Reach: 74 inches Record: 26 Wins (7 KO, 4 Submission, 15 Decision) 11 Losses (2 KO, 8 Submission, 1 Decision) 1 Draw Years Pro: 11 Years (Initially fought in 1997, inactive until 2002)
Chael Sonnen's Keys to Victory
1) The Right Hook - While Chael Sonnen fights out of a southpaw stance, he is not actually left handed. Chael is what you would call a "converted southpaw" meaning he's a right handed fighter in a left handed stance, keeping his power hand closer to his opponent and his weaker hand at a greater distance. Throughout history boxing has seen its fair share of fighters employ this tactic and do it with great success. Notable examples include men like "Marvelous" Marvin Hagler, Michael Moorer, and most recently Victor Ortiz. The best punch for all of these men in terms of its ability to inflict maximum damage on the opponent has been the right hook.
Chael is no exception to this. Bisping can be extremely tough to take down and Chael will have to fight Michael while standing. Bisping's absolute worst habbit while standing in a fight is that he constantly circles to the right hand of his usually orthodox stanced opponent. Despite Sonnen being a southpaw, we've discussed that his right hand is his naturally more powerful hand and that if Bisping circles towards it he'll be putting himself in the line of fire for Chael's best punch, and Michael doesn't have the chin to take more than a few of those flush punches and remain standing.
2) Keep Close - One of the things Michael Bisping does right when he's really on his game is control the distance. Being an outside style fighter this generally allows him to control what he can do to his opponent with his punches and kicks and gives him escape routes should they get too close to him. Part of what makes him effective at this style is that he usually steps into the center of the octagon before his opponent. This allows him to dictate distance control more than his jab or footwork because taking the center forces your opponent to move either into your strikes or away from them. When he doesn't do this he gets caught, like he did by Sonnen's one time training partner Dan Henderson.
So for Chael he has to either bolt out of his corner to take the center of the octagon, or use head movement and feints to get close to Bisping. If he can get to the inside he should immediately grab a hold of Bisping by the back of the neck or waist and either use it to score a takedown or put him against the cage. Don't allow that seperation and just lean on Bisping while throwing punches and elbows and beat the will to fight out of him. If Chael allows distance between himself and Bisping, that distance will show on the scorecards as Bisping will peck away and stay evasive and outpoint Chael. Chael must smother Bisping like a blanket with fists and that way nothing in Michael's bag of tricks is applicable to Chael.
3) Pace Yourself - Usually when a fighter is as relentless as Chael tends to be, one of their strengths is their cardiovascular conditioning. However, we've seen a tendency from Chael in fights to fade. After a few rounds his punches and elbows lack the same steam they had at the start of the fight. He doesn't explode for his takedowns the same way. Perhaps worst of all is his defense just disappears against both strikes and submissions. Anderson Silva was able to catch him in a triangle quite easily in the final round of their bout and after punishing Nate Marquardt for two and a half rounds he almost fell prey to a guillotine choke on two seperate occasions in the final round of a fight he had in the bank.
So while Chael does have to close the distance and work as mentioned above, he has to do so intelligently. He can't just go wild in there and swing away or just shoot for takedowns no matter the cost and punch and elbow away. He has to look for the opportunities and take them as presented, not try to force them or look for something that isn't there. If he has to go to a decision, then so be it because I'm sure he'd rather have won by being smart rather than lose to his own stupidity or ego.
Chael Sonnen's Perfect Strategy - Sonnen needs to immediately come out and show Bisping he is not intimidated by his striking, which is really Bisping's entire offensive game. He can go out and afford to trade a bit with Michael and try to land that big right hook to shake him up a bit. At that point Chael should shoot in on him and bring him to the mat and work from either the half guard or side control with elbows to the head and knees to the body. If he continually works that strategy he will either stop Michael Bisping via accumulation of punishment, Bisping giving it up, or simply cruise control on points.
Michael "The Count" Bisping Height: 6'2 Reach: 76 inches Record: 22 Wins (14 KO, 4 Submission, 4 Decision) 3 Losses (1 KO, 2 Decision) Years Pro: 8 Years
Michael Bisping's Keys to Victory
1) Run and Gun - It may not be the most exciting path to a win, but when a title shot is on the line you do what you have to do in order to win. Bisping needs to pick his shots from the outside by virtue of his reach advantage, score quickly with them, and exit at angles with quick footwork to avoid any return fire. Now he may not do much damage with this strategy, but he will frustrate Sonnen to all hell with it. Frustrated opponents leave themselves open and give you opportunities when they get impatient.
When Bisping employed this strategy against Chris Leben, he avoided the power of Leben's punches, wasn't taken down for any significant period of time by him, and was able to land flush strikes seemingly at will. It scores points, and when you don't get hit in return judges are forced to score those rounds for you. Yes, aggression is a scoring point for judges, but if your aggression is ineffective then it doesn't count for anything.
2) Force a Fast Fight Pace - Even when carrying extra weight at 205 pounds, if he went the distance with his opponent Michael Bisping looked like the fresher fighter at the end of his fight. For all the criticisms about how Bisping fights, he's generally not a guy who has a problem with his stamina. Michael has been hurt badly in fights with guys like Yoshihiro Akiyama but still fought through it and not looked tired when the horn sounded to end the final round.
On the other hand as we've mentioned, Chael Sonnen has a habit of fading. Now while Michael isn't the kind to catch Sonnen with an armbar or a choke from the guard position, he may not have to if he applies Key to Victory #1 to further Key to Victory #2. Forcing Sonnen to constantly move while having to take pesky strikes and making him level change then moving out of shooting range is going to make Chael use a lot of energy. If you can be rope-a-doped by a guy as he was against Anderson, then you can certainly wear him out by forcing him to constantly move and reset while taking strikes.
3) Steal Rounds - When all else fails in a fight you aren't likely to score a finish in, your best option is to manipulate the judges. Even if you aren't winning the fight, there are things you can do to make the judges believe that you are. Leave the final impression of significance in the round with them by throwing a last minute flurry or scoring a last second takedown. This tactic was really most famously used by "Sugar" Ray Leonard in his middleweight boxing title fight against "Marvelous" Marvin Hagler.
While Hagler pounded Leonard with hard clubbing blows throughout the duration of most rounds in the bout, Leonard would sacrifice power at the expense of increased speed and flashy visibility to his punches that were not damaging blows, but were so impressive looking to the judges that to them it looked like he was winning the fight and got two out of the three judges to vote him the winner. This tactic would prove very useful against a fighter like Sonnen who is by no means flashy and much more of a grinding type of fighter. If you get to the final minute of a round where say Sonnen has had his way just by holding Michael in a clinch for most of it while inflicting some minimal damage, would a judge be inclined to score the round for Bisping if he explodes with a multi-strike combination that seems like it did damage? Yes.
Michael Bisping's Perfect Strategy - Michael is best served to stay as far away from Chael as is possible and use every bit of real estate in the octagon he has at his disposal. He has to keep pumping his jab at Chael while keeping his chin tucked behind his left shoulder to avoid Sonnen's right hook landing flush, and keep his right hand a bit low to be able to pummel under Chael in a clinch situation as Sonnen's left hand is not a threat. When Sonnen does get in close Michael should time a swift knee to the sternum and push off to circle away and avoid being taken down. He can afford in the last 30 seconds to explode with hard strikes while circling to his own right to avoid Sonnen's only dangerous counter strike to him. By cutting this type of pace and avoiding Chael's bread and butter he can walk away with a decision.
Final Prediction - This is an interesting bout to say the least. You have two of the biggest mouths in MMA with two completely opposite styles looking to secure a title fight with Anderson Silva, the best fighter in MMA. One thing we should take into account is that during their training camps Sonnen was preparing to fight a freestyle wrestler who would likely look to put him on his back, while Bisping was preparing to fight a guy who would look to bring him to the mat at any cost. This would seemingly give Bisping an advantage as stylistically he was planning for this type of fight all along, while now Sonnen will have to adjust to fighting a kickboxer as opposed to a fresstyle wrestler.
However, we have to consider the fact that Michael Bisping has fought and been taken down by men far less skilled at the art of the takedown than Chael Sonnen, and also guys who don't compliment their wrestling with good stand up fundamentals as Chael Sonnen does. Sonnen meanwhile has fought and beaten strikers as good or better than Michael Bisping. I don't see Bisping being able to fend off Sonnen's takedowns for a long enough time to win on points, and I don't see him being able to defend Sonnen's ground and pound. He's never shown a capacity to submit a good wrestler from his back, and in the end that's really the way to beat Sonnen.
Final Prediction: Your Winner, Chael Sonnen, TKO Round 2
Don't forget to join us every Sunday for 411 Ground and Pound Radio, featuring my esteemed colleagues; The King of Coverage Mark Radulich, The Nosebleed famous for A View from the Cheap Seats Scott "Kuch" Kuchowski, and "The Vile One" himself from MMA's 3 R's and some great interviews Jeffrey Harris.
