The Juggernaut MMA News Report 01.26.11: UFC on FOX 2 Preview

Posted by Jonathan Solomon on 01.26.2012

Will Phil Davis play spoiler to Rashad Evans' hopes of fighting Jon Jones? Can Chael Sonnen batter Michael Bisping setting up a rematch with Anderson Silva? 411's Jonathan Solomon previews UFC on FOX 2! Plus, check out the latest news including Nate Diaz vs. Jim Miller, the Karate Hottie and more!




UFC on FOX: EVANS vs. DAVIS PREVIEW

Rashad Evans vs. Phil Davis

Rashad Evans wants the opportunity to fight Jon Jones and after missing out on it throughout 2011, he will enter the octagon again this weekend with a shot to secure that match-up. All he must do is stop Phil Davis and stay healthy in the process. The former champion's foe is the taller undefeated wrestler with a longer reach. Can Phil Davis bounce back after going nearly a year without a fight since last March?

Rashad moved his camp from Greg Jackson's New Mexico team to Imperial Athletics in Florida last year, training with a fresh group of fighters for the first time in years. His first fight since the switch came in the summer when he demolished Tito Ortiz on short notice, finishing the legend with a brutal knee to the body. Obviously, I wouldn't go so far to compare Ortiz of 2011 with Phil Davis right now, but Evans looked as good as he has, perhaps since the Forrest Griffin fight in 2008.

Phil Davis' striking has not proven to be a dangerous asset up to this point after just nine professional fights. He is a wrestler who uses his length to keep his opponents at bay which helps set up takedowns. Over time in their March 2011 fight, Davis was able to take Antonio Rogerio Nogueira down and wear him out for a decision win. He was able to submit Alexander Gustafsson and Tim Boestch in 2010 although the wrestling ability of the former at the time left much to be desired.

Evans is a fighter who branches the rest of his game from his speed when he's comfortable striking against his opponent. Prior to the Ortiz bout, he fought Rampage Jackson and Thiago Silva. Neither fight saw a majority of the action spent boxing because Evans was weary of both men's power. He was able to utilize his takedowns for long periods of time, before coming too close to punches that nearly hurt him (well, in the Silva fight, he was hurt but was able to regain his composure quickly). The point is, with Phil Davis not known for having one punch knockout power, we should see Evans look to unleash his speed and combinations.

From there, the story turns to Phil Davis and his bread and butter, takedowns. Will he be able to put Rashad on his back and if so, keep him there? Evans has not struggled against a wrestler since his draw with Tito Ortiz (which would have been a loss had Tito not been penalized a point for holding the fence). However, on paper, Davis is a much better wrestler than Michael Bisping, Chuck Liddell, Griffin, Lyoto Machida, Silva, Rampage or Ortiz.

We know Rashad Evans has the potential to knock out almost any other light heavyweight in the world. We cannot say the same for Phil Davis and add to the equation that Rashad is a sound wrestler in his own right (even if he is giving up some abilities to his younger counterpart), he should have more opportunities to win this fight.


The last time Rashad Evans lost a fight, he went to sleep. Do not expect a similar outcome this weekend.


Chael Sonnen vs. Michael Bisping

The fight we wanted all along finally came to fruition two weeks ago and it should be glorious. Depending on your perspective, both fighters are hated or loved and you love seeing them defeated. While Sonnen has a funky reputation because of his ridiculous interviews, performance enhancing drug use, admission to fraud in real estate, (being from Oregon, or whatever else floats your boat) Bisping has become a lightning rod for other reasons. Simply put, he comes off as a pompous ass when giving interviews or in his two season's spent coaching on The Ultimate Fighter. Throw in his actions in the fight with Jorge Rivera where he intentionally threw and landed an illegal knee and then spit at his corner, and he's hardly Randy Couture in terms of positive behavior.

Throwing all that to the side, you cannot take away the fact that both men are impressive fighters who have improved over the years to become among the top contenders in the UFC. Both have their weaknesses, some more obvious than others. For Sonnen, his submission defense has been his pitfall in MMA whether against Paulo Filho in WEC or Demian Maia and Anderson Silva in the UFC. With Bisping, it's the fact he is not outstanding at any one thing. He has a great gas tank, effective takedown defense and technical striking. His chin has been rocked, most notably by Dan Henderson, but also by Denis Kang (who he later came back to defeat).

It's obvious how these guys stack up. What's concerning however is the fact that Bisping has had two weeks to practice his takedown defense going from fighting Demian Maia to Chael Sonnen. Sonnen is one of the best wrestlers in the division as he brings a physical style built off his striking. He will throw down and when the opportunity presents itself, bull rush with a shot. In his last five fights, Sonnen has been able to utilize that wrestling effectively to a mark of 4-1 (Brian Stann, Silva, Nate Marquardt, Yushin Okami and Dan Miller). If he's forced to stand and trade for three rounds, can he still be as effective?

Michael Bisping has historically had good takedown defense. Not even Rashad Evans was able to control him on the ground for long in their 2007 fight at light heavyweight. Since then, the best wrestler he fought was Dan Henderson and we all know what happened there. Generally, against the middle tier of fighters, his takedown defense allows him to keep the fight standing and then unleash his skilled striking to win on points or by stoppage. Sonnen has not been stopped by strikes in over 7 years so odds are he will not fall victim to a big punch in this fight. Could Bisping pull off a submission? It's possible, but recent history would not be on his side. He has never finished a fight in the UFC by submission.

For Bisping to win, he will need to take this fight to a decision. Through 15 minutes, he needs to stay off his back as long as possible and stick and move to score points on the judge's scorecards. I'm not too confident in his ability to achieve all that considering the only man able to prevent Sonnen from getting in a groove was Demian Maia (with his beautiful takedown/sweep into a triangle choke).




Demian Maia vs. Chris Weidman

The Fox opener is a match-up made on just two weeks notice after Mark Munoz was injured and pulled out of his fight with Chael Sonnen. So, instead of fighting primarily a striker in Michael Bisping, Demian Maia will meet a former Division-I wrestler in Chris Weidman.

Maia is attempting to build up enough steam for another run at the UFC middleweight championship. It will be two years in April since he fought Anderson Silva in Abu Dhabi, losing by decision in one of the oddest performances of Silva's title reign. While there are fighters above Maia in that pecking order (Sonnen, Bisping, Munoz to name the top three), he just turned 34-years old two months ago. Does he have another four years left in MMA? It's possible, but if he is ever going to earn another title shot, these are the types of fights he must win (two week notice or not).

The Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt went 1-1 last year, losing to Mark Munoz by decision and then overcoming Jorge Santiago in October. Against Munoz (a large wrestler), Maia was not able to do much on the ground and most of his takedown attempts failed. Demian did score well in the first round by being the aggressor on the feet landing punches and kicks. The tide turned in the next round as Munoz answered back and Maia had no outlet to go to on the ground. When he fought Santiago, he utilized his grappling to win the fight thanks to takedowns and top position. Santiago had success standing but was not able to prevent the fight from going to the ground against the higher level black belt.

Weidman is 27-years old and this will mark his fourth year as a professional since his debut in 2009. He earned his first fight in the UFC last year and remained undefeated through three fights (7-0 overall). He beat striking specialist Alessio Sakara by decision before choking out Jesse Bongfeldt (standing guillotine) and Tom Lawler (D'arce choke). His striking has not been proven against top competitors yet and has to be considered a wildcard entering this fight.

If Demian Maia can put the former Hofstra University wrestler on his back, can he somehow avoid any damage and get back up? He's been a member of the Serra-Luongo team in Long Island, New York and is a BJJ purple belt so he shouldn't be a fish out of water. However, having someone as dangerous as Maia on top of you has to be disheartening if you cannot power him off. On the other hand, are we assuming wrong? Perhaps Maia will struggle to take Weidman down. In that case, he'll be forced to strike and hope he can take advantage what we would expect is the wrestler's deficiencies regarding technique.

As long as Weidman can keep himself off his back, he has every chance in the world at securing the win. While he is the betting favorite, I would guess that's because he's an undefeated prospect and a wrestler. Don't sleep on Maia because even if he's the one who is taken down, Weidman must be cautious not to give up an arm or a leg. He must be the anti-Sonnen.

---

---

JUGGERNAUT NEWS BRIEFS

- Dana White broke the news Tuesday night, the third UFC on Fox show will be Saturday night May 5 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. The first fight announced was Jim Miller vs. Nate Diaz.

- The March 3 Strikeforce show currently headlined by women's 135-pound champion Miesha Tate vs. Ronda Rousey has a couple new fights to the card. In light heavyweight action, Gegard Mousasi will fight Mike Kyle and then lightweights Ryan Couture and Conor Heun will clash.

- The UFC has added Diego Nunes vs. Dennis Siver in a featherweight bout to UFC on Fuel 2 on the Sweden card this April.

- The "Karate Hottie" Michelle Waterson returned to MMA action last week with a submission win over Diana Rael in New Mexico. This was her first fight since April 2010 and giving birth to her first child, in March of 2011.



- A representative of M-1 Global shot down rumors of a fight between Fedor Emelianenko and Bobby Lashley.

- John Dodson will return to his natural weight class, flyweight, on the 3rd UFC on FOX show to fight Darren Uyenoyama. Dodson won season 14 of TUF as a bantamweight, knocking out TJ Dillashaw in the finals.

---

JUGGERNAUT VIDEO OF THE WEEK

A look back in time to about two years ago on the road to Silva-Sonnen 1. Chael talks about a wide range of topics which you can probably guess. If he wins this weekend, I'd expect something similar over the next few months. If he should lose, I doubt he'll shut up and that's what's great about Chael Sonnen.




TWITTER

http://www.twitter.com/411mania
http://www.twitter.com/411wrestling
http://www.twitter.com/411moviestv
http://www.twitter.com/411music
http://www.twitter.com/411games
http://www.twitter.com/411mma