Thoughts From Across The Pond 01.28.12: More Entertaining Than the UFC on FOX 2 Press Conference
Posted by Alex Watt on 01.28.2012
Can Michael Bisping and Phil Davis pull off upset wins at UFC on FOX 2 this weekend or will Chael Sonnen and Rashad Evans continue their runs towards UFC title shots? 411's Alex Watt breaks down both fights and more!
Apologies in advance if this week's column is less in-depth than usual. It's been a busy week!
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UFC on FOX 2
Tomorrow night the UFC makes its second foray onto FOX in what has the potential to be a very entertaining second event on the channel.
The main event of the evening is a showdown between light heavyweight contenders Rashad Evans and Phil Davis. Evans has been considered the true No. 1 contender to the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship ever since he beat Quinton Jackson back in May of 2010. Since then, a variety of things (most notably injuries to the champion and injuries to Evans) have prevented him from cashing in that title shot. If, however, Rashad can get past Davis this weekend and stay healthy and injury free then he will finally get the title showdown with Jon Jones that he has been craving for so long. "Mr. Wonderful" though is a talented up and comer, with fantastic wrestling and will be the bigger man than Evans on the night. This fight then will be a tough test for "Suga" and may well require him to fall back on his experience in order to emerge victorious.
The wrestling battle in this fight, of course, is a very interesting and significant one. At the press conference on Thursday, the two men went back and forth on who's wrestling is better with both claiming that the other man would have no chance of beating them in a wrestling match. Really that is by the by since their match-up on Saturday is a Mixed Martial Arts fight but you would still expect wrestling to play a significant part in this contest. The slight advantage may well go to Davis since he is the larger fighter and has a more decorated record of wrestling at the collegiate level. Nevertheless, both Evans and Davis are great at mixing up their wrestling; staying unpredictable with their timing and alternating between single legs, double legs and throws. If one man is able to get the other to the floor then the battle will become very interesting as the two wrestlers battle for position and supremacy.
The worry whenever two world class wrestlers meet inside the Octagon, of course, is that the majority of the fight will be spent in the clinch as the two fighters battle for position and look to wear out their opponent. You would have to expect the same to happen, at some stage, between Evans and Davis. After all, Davis will be the bigger man and it would make tactical sense for him to look to wear out the smaller Rashad by leaning his weight on his opponent against the fence. Rashad will no doubt look to reverse position and push Davis against the fence himself, and Evans showed in his win over "Rampage" Jackson, that despite being the smaller man he can have a lot of success in that position. Still, Davis is a more talented grappler than Jackson and so should not find himself held against the fence with the same ease. Instead, Rashad may find more success if he is to use his superior footwork to stay away from the fence and try and win this fight by using his striking.
On the feet, Rashad Evans will hold a clear advantage. He has scored some highlight reel knockouts over the likes of Chuck Liddell and Sean Salmon inside the Octagon, plus he was able to rock "Rampage" Jackson with the very first punch of their fight in 2010. Evans also looked phenomenal in his last outing at UFC 133 against late replacement Tito Ortiz. "Suga" naturally showed off his great wrestling chops during the contest but also demonstrated a much more diversified striking game in the fight. For a long time Rashad's striking was based around good boxing, great footwork and that sledgehammer of a right hand. However, he threw a variety of kicks in that fight with Ortiz and ultimately finished "The Huntington Beach Bad Boy" with a brutal knee to the midsection.
In contrast, Davis' striking remains the weakest part of his arsenal. Davis uses his striking primarily to set up his takedowns and remains relatively rigid and inexperienced with his boxing. Considering that he will likely enter the Octagon with some ring-rust following a 10 month layoff, Davis' striking is unlikely to look particularly slick on Saturday night.
In conclusion, as the more experienced fighter Rashad Evans will naturally be the favourite going into this fight. For Davis to beat "Suga" he will need to control Evans in the clinch, take him down consistently and keep him on the ground. With Evans' own wrestling skills, combined with his explosive scrambling ability it is difficult to envision that happening for any extended period. Because of this, you would expect a good portion of this fight to be contested on the feet. In that area, Rashad is the far superior athlete. Provided that Evans can stop Davis from pushing him against the fence (and part of that will be by using his great footwork) then he should be able to use his speed, fast hands and clever boxing combinations to pick Davis apart. The smart money is on a Rashad Evans judges' decision win here but with his better striking I think Evans can finish this by TKO in the second or third round.
The co-main event is arguably now even more anticipated than the headline fight. After all, it is not often that two such polarising figures square off against each other. As two of the most outspoken and vilified fighters in all of MMA, Chael Sonnen and Michael Bisping could well create some of 2012's most memorable moments at the pre-fight weigh ins and in the Octagon on fight night. We can only be somewhat disappointed that the fight had to be so hastily put together when Mark Munoz fell foul of injury as it has robbed us of months of potentially brilliant trash talk.
Verbal sparring aside though, this fight holds serious ramifications for both combatants. The winner will get the dubious honour of challenging UFC Middleweight Champion and pound for pound king Anderson Silva in the summer.
A particularly interesting factor in this contest is that, with the late change to this contest, neither man has had sufficient time to prepare for their opponent. On the contrary, just a fortnight ago both men were still preparing to face a vastly different fighter to the one they will now face off against on Saturday night. Sonnen was originally scheduled to face fellow wrestler Mark Munoz, a fighter who was more of a threat with takedowns than Bisping. However Munoz, although holding serious power in his hands, does not have the same level of diverse striking as Bisping. For his part, Bisping was preparing for a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu specialist as opposed to a high level wrestler. Could these factors play a significant part in who wins Saturday's fight? Perhaps whoever has been doing the most varied training, rather than focussing it too much on their original opponent's style, will be the man who wins this fight.
First of all, it goes without saying that Sonnen will have a significant advantage in the wrestling stakes in this fight. Sonnen was an NCAA Division I All-American Wrestler at the University of Oregon, plus holds a variety of awards in Greco-Roman wrestling. It is not an exaggeration at this stage to suggest that Chael Sonnen stands as the best wrestler in the 185lbs division, a fact he reiterated with his incredibly dominant performance against Brian Stann. In that contest (plus that title losing effort to Anderson Silva) Sonnen's success came by largely refusing to engage in a striking battle with his opponent. Instead, he charged forward relentlessly with powerful double leg takedowns, showing no fear of being tagged with strikes as he moved in. This is surely the strategy that he will look to employ against Bisping too.
"The Count" has shown good takedown defence in previous fights and uses clever footwork and effective sprawling to try and keep fights on the feet. Nevertheless, he struggled with the wrestling of Rashad Evans and Matt Hamill and was also taken down in the early stages of his previous contest against Jason Miller. Despite this, Bisping has always demonstrated great scrambling ability and is usually able to clamber back to his feet fairly quickly when a wrestler puts him on his back. However, Bisping has arguably never faced a wrestler as talented as Chael Sonnen, particularly when it comes to controlling an opponent on the ground whilst continuing to land damage. Bisping will have real trouble getting back to his feet if Sonnen dumps him on his back and, instead, needs to try and prevent Sonnen from taking him down at all. The key to that will be Bisping's footwork; he needs to stay in constant motion and never allow Sonnen to grab a hold of him.
If Bisping can do this and prevent the takedowns of Sonnen then he will hold the definite advantage in the striking stakes. As a seasoned kickboxer "The Count" should be able to pick Sonnen apart using that superior footwork and his clever combinations. Bisping has won many fights using his fists, elbows, knees and shins and has some of the best killer instinct in the sport; when he has an opponent hurt, he swarms on them and hunts for the finish. If he is able to hurt Sonnen on the feet though, Bisping will have to be careful not to get too overeager in looking for that TKO finish against the fence in case Sonnen decides to change levels and counter with a takedown. In addition, although Bisping has to be considered the superior striker in this fight, it should not be forgotten that Sonnen has a powerful right hand of his own (he rocked Anderson Silva on the feet on a couple of occasions in their title fight in 2010) and Bisping will have to be careful not to get caught with it.
Sonnen's kryptonite is undoubtedly his vulnerability to submissions; 8 of his 11 losses come by this method. The majority of those too are by either armbar or triangle choke, two holds frequently applied by grapplers fighting from their backs. Bisping, a fighter who likes to stay active from the guard position, will need to try and exploit Sonnen's most obvious weakness by constantly attacking with these manoeuvres. Nevertheless, in Sonnen's fight with Brian Stann it was he who emerged victorious by using a submission (a head and arm triangle choke from top position) proving that Bisping will have to remain wary of submissions too.
Ultimately, this fight will likely be a case of whether Bisping can keep the fight standing or whether Sonnen can get the fight to the mat. If Bisping is able to sprawl on Sonnen's takedowns effectively, then he can definitely pull off the win here because of the quality of his kickboxing. However, I just cannot foresee Chael Sonnen not being able to do what he has done to the likes of Silva, Stann, Okami and Marquardt; that is, put his opponent under constant pressure, consistently taking him down and dominating him on the ground. As long as Sonnen remains wary of any Bisping submission attacks from the guard then he has to be favoured to take this fight by controlling the Brit on the floor and grinding out a decision win.
For the full staff's picks for the whole of the UFC on FOX 2 card, be sure to check out the official preview on the main page.
Video Interlude
For those who have yet to see episode 1 of UFC Primetime: Diaz Vs. Condit, check it out below. Condit comes across brilliantly and the segment on Diaz is a fantastic piece of work which gives a good insight into his psyche:
Last Friday the UFC presented its first Fight Night event from its new home on FX. Overall the event was an entertaining one with Josh Neer, Pat Barry and Mike Easton all pulling off good wins.
However the event was really all built around the main event between lightweight contenders Jim Miller and Melvin Guillard. Both 155-pounders needed an impressive win here in order to move themselves back into title contention.
The fight started, unsurprisingly, with Guillard finding success in the striking battle. Guillard landed a nice left hook which temporarily dropped Miller and he was constantly hurting his opponent with hard, accurate strikes. "The Young Assassin" connected with a few slick jumping knees which rocked Miller but Guillard threw the strike one too many times. Miller was able to figure out Guillard's timing, catch the knee attempt and take the fight to the floor. Once there Miller quickly took the back and locked in a rear naked choke for the all-important submission win.
In many ways this fight played out as expected. Guillard was able to outstrike Miller in the early part of the first round and Miller, again, had to rely on his toughness and durability to continue fighting. Once Miller found the opening for the takedown though, he took it and the fight was over fairly quickly from there due to the impressive skills of the BJJ black belt.
It was foolish of Guillard to continually throw the jumping knee. A strength of Guillard's is usually his unpredictability and clever striking. However, in this fight he continued to throw the same strike, in the same way and that allowed Miller to counter with a takedown. If Guillard had remained more composed and not tried so desperately to knock Miller out (something which was always going to be unlikely considering Miller's iron chin) then Guillard may well have won this fight.
Instead, it is Miller who came out of the fight looking like the proverbial beast. He weathered the striking exchanges and took the fight to where he is most comfortable. Another win for Miller could see him finally receive the title shot which many believe that he has long deserved. Miller will next take on Nate Diaz at UFC on FOX 3 in a mouth-watering match-up. Diaz has looked much improved in his last two fights and with his ever improving boxing, plus a great ground game of his own he has the potential to give Miller a lot of problems. It seems likely that the winner of that fight will get the next shot at the UFC Lightweight Championship, held by either Frankie Edgar or Ben Henderson.
Quotes of the Week
"You know, these guys want to talk about God. 'Oh, I want to thank God. I want to thank God.' Listen, I'm a God-fearing man, go to church every Sunday and have since I was a boy. But if I ever found out that God cared one way or another about a borderline illegal fist-fight on Saturday night, I would be so greatly disappointed that it would make rethink my entire belief system." – Chael Sonnen is not convinced that God is a fight fan.
"I think Alistair, everything he does is one single shot because he knows he's got that glass jaw as well. He's been knocked out quite a few times in the past, even by Chuck Liddell as well. Every time when he punches, one hand is up. He throws single shots; he doesn't throw combinations. You saw that when he fought [Fabricio] Werdum. Werdum was actually tagging him more than he did to Werdum. I think that Junior dos Santos, with his combinations, his reach, I think he's going to tag him and he's going to throw combos and I think that yeah, he's going to take this fight." – Bas Rutten is not impressed with Alistair Overeem.
"I think what [Ronda Rousey]'s done has been impressive. However, I know she hasn't fought anybody of my caliber or my style. I really feel that she's highly, highly, highly underestimating my ability. Most of my opponents that I've fought haven't challenged me too much on the ground. I do believe she'll be a challenge. But my opponents also haven't pulled the most out of me. If she thinks that's all that I've got, she's sorely mistaken. And if she thinks I don't have knockout power or that my standup is so-so, she's mistaken again. It's called a gameplan. Most of the people I've fought are strikers. When you strike to strike, it's different than when you strike to take someone down. When you strike to take someone down, usually you're coming forward. You're trying to close the distance so you can get it to the ground where that's your strongpoint. When you're striking to strike, you can develop a lot power because you're trying to stay at a certain range where your punches have the most power. I can do both. She better keep that pretty little chin tucked if she doesn't want to wake up with the lights in her eyes." – Miesha Tate shows that it's not just Ronda Rousey who can smack talk.
The UFC on FOX 2 press conference. It's full of too many great quotes to list here so just watch it. Sonnen, Bisping, Evans and Davis are all on top form. The press conference starts at the 24 minute mark:
Pound for Pound Rankings
Rashad Evans is in action this weekend. Can he win his contest with Phil Davis and maintain his No. 7 spot in the pound for pound rankings?
1. Anderson Silva (29-4)
2. Georges St. Pierre (22-2)
3. José Aldo (21-1)
4. Jon Jones (15-1)
5. Frankie Edgar (14-1-1)
6. Dominick Cruz (19-1)
7. Rashad Evans (16-1-1)
8. Junior Dos Santos (14-1)
9. Nick Diaz (26-7, 1NC)
10. Gilbert Melendez (20-2)
11. Joseph Benavidez (15-2)
12. Dan Henderson (29-8)
13. "Shogun" Rua (20-6)
14. Urijah Faber (26-5)
15. Benson Henderson (15-2)
And that'll do it for another week.
I'll be back next week with my thoughts on UFC on FOX 2 and my in-depth preview of UFC 143's showdown between Nick Diaz and Carlos Condit.
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Thanks for reading and if you have any comments or feedback please leave them below or message me on twitter. Cheers.
