411's MMA Roundtable - UFC on FOX 2: Evans vs. Davis

Posted by Dan Plunkett on 01.27.2012

Rashad Evans takes on Phil Davis in the main event of UFC on FOX 2! Plus, Chael Sonnen fights Michael Bisping for a middleweight title shot, Demian Maia battles Chris Weidman and more! Get ready for the show with our full roundtable preview and join us Saturday night for LIVE coverage!



WELCOME:
Two title eliminators headline the UFC's second event on FOX! In the main event, Rashad Evans fights Phil Davis in a five round light heavyweight bout. In middleweight action, Chael Sonnen takes on Michael Bisping. Also, Demian Maia takes on undefeated prospect Chris Weidman and more! Let's meet the staff and get to the predictions!

THE STAFF:

From Five Quick Rounds, Wyatt Beougher!

From MMA on Tap!, Jon Butterfield!

From Locked in the Guillotine, Robert Winfree!

From MMA's 3R's, Jeffrey Harris!

And from The Greatest MMA News Column, Dan Plunkett!



THE PRELIMINARY CARD:
Fights will air live on Fuel TV.
Middleweight Bout: Chris Camozzi vs. Dustin Jacoby

Wyatt Beougher: Dustin Jacoby, UD
Jon Butterfield: Chris Camozzi, TKO, Round Two
Robert Winfree: Dustin Jacoby, Decision
Jeffrey Harris: Chris Camozzi, Decision
Dan Plunkett: Camozzi, Decision.
The staff picks Chris Camozzi, 3-2.

Heavyweight Bout: Joey Beltran vs. Lavar Johnson

Wyatt Beougher: Lavar Johnson, UD
Jon Butterfield: Joey Beltran, Decision
Robert Winfree: Joey Beltran, Decision
Jeffrey Harris: Lavar Johnson, Decision
Dan Plunkett: Beltran, Decision.
The staff picks Joey Beltran, 3-2.

Lightweight Bout: Michael Johnson vs. Shane Roller

Wyatt Beougher: Shane Roller, Submission (RNC), Rd 2
Jon Butterfield: Shane Roller, Submission, Round One
Robert Winfree: Shane Roller, Submission Round 2
Jeffrey Harris: Shane Roller, Submission, Round One
Dan Plunkett: Roller, Decision.
The staff picks Shane Roller, 5-0.

Featherweight Bout: Charles Oliveira vs. Eric Wisely

Wyatt Beougher: Charles Oliveira, UD
Jon Butterfield: Charles Oliveira, Submission, Round Three
Robert Winfree: Charles Oliveira, Submission Round 3
Jeffrey Harris: Charles Oliveira, Submission, Round Two
Dan Plunkett: Oliveira, Submission, Round 1.
The staff picks Charles Oliveira, 5-0.

Featherweight Bout: George Roop vs. Cub Swanson

Wyatt Beougher: Cub Swanson, Submission (Guillotine), Rd 3
Jon Butterfield: George Roop, Decision
Robert Winfree: Cub Swanson, Decision
Jeffrey Harris: George Roop, Decision
Dan Plunkett: Roop, Decision.
The staff picks George Roop, 3-2.

Heavyweight Bout: Mike Russow vs. Jon Olav Einemo

Wyatt Beougher: Mike Russow, SD
Jon Butterfield: Jon Olav Einemo, Submission, Round One
Robert Winfree: Jon Olav Einemo, Submission Round 1
Jeffrey Harris: Mike Russow, Decision
Dan Plunkett: Russow, Decision.
The staff picks Mike Russow, 3-2.

Lightweight Bout: Evan Dunham vs. Nik Lentz

Wyatt Beougher: Evan Dunham, UD
Jon Butterfield: Evan Dunham, Decision
Robert Winfree: Evan Dunham, Decision
Jeffrey Harris: Evan Dunham, Decision
Dan Plunkett: Dunham, Decision.
The staff picks Evan Dunham, 5-0.

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MAIN CARD:
Middleweight Bout: Demian Maia (#9 MW) vs. Chris Weidman

Wyatt Beougher: So Bisping gets bumped into the co-main event for a chance at a title shot against a guy that Maia's already beaten, and Maia gets an up-and-comer? Just shows how badly a horribly boring loss to Anderson Silva can derail your momentum. As for Weidman, he's widely regarded as one of the best prospects in MMA, but taking this fight against Maia on short notice represents a GIANT step up in competition for the youngster. If Weidman is smart, he'll try to emulate Mark Munoz' gameplan, choosing his shots on the feet and using his wrestling background to prevent Maia from getting takedowns. If he can do that, he's got a legitimate shot at beating Maia, just like Munoz did. However, Maia's victory over Jorge Santiago showcased his still-improving striking, and, of course, he's deservedly one of the most feared BJJ practitioners in all of mixed martial arts today. In a fight that looks this close on paper, conventional wisdom would suggest you take the guy who's awesome at one thing and not the guy who's merely good at everything; however, I'm picking Weidman to prove that all the hype behind him is warranted.

Winner: Chris Weidman, Unanimous Decision

Jon Butterfield: Bisping gets the fight with Sonnen because Maia has already defeated Chael. Obviously UFC brass see no sense in repeating that match, especially as Maia would likely just submit Sonnen again anyway, and if that happens Maia is in no position to take a title shot on the back of two wins. Instead, then, Maia gets the promising prospect Weidman, who has developed his skills around a solid wrestling base – but I don't feel Weidman is at the same level as, say, Munoz just yet, and that doesn't bode well. I fancy Maia to get the better of the striking exchanges here (his striking is ever improving and vastly underrated – Maia definitely doesn't solely rely on grappling anymore), and he'll certainly be a tough opponent to take down and smother. Aside from pinning Maia to the cage, which itself won't be easy, I don't really see where Weidman is better here. While I'm a little wary of picking a Maia finish, since he hasn't had one in six fights, this could be the time to pick up Submission of the Night. Let's see.

Winner: Demian Maia, Submission, Round Two

Robert Winfree: Well, this is certainly an interesting fight. Despite having beaten Chael Sonnen already, Demian Maia finds himself fighting the best prospect the middleweight division has seen in a really long time. Weidman has very good wrestling and his displayed some solid submission skills. Maia has been having a rough time lately as people seem to have figured out his jiujitsu game, or at least how to survive if necessary. Maia will have an advantage in the striking, which is surprising for me to actually type out, but he most likely wants this fight on the ground. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Weidman takes this one, he's got all the tools necessary, but I think it's too big a step too soon.

Winner: Demian Maia, Submission Round 2

Jeffrey Harris: In terms of match-up Maia easily has the experience factor. Maia is a top level grappler and submission artist. However, Weidman has also proven in a short time to be a strong opponent. In his UFC debut he bested long-time veteran, Alessio Sakara. In terms of style, I really like Weidman's chances in this match-up. Maia is beatable if you get him on the ground and defend his submission attempts and I believe Weidman can do that with his wrestling background. I'm picking Weidman for the upset.

Winner: Chris Weidman, Decision

Dan Plunkett: When this fight was first announced I didn't have very high expectations. I thought it would develop into a mediocre kickboxing match given their styles. However, Chris Weidman changed that when he said he plans on taking Maia to the ground. While that may just be talk, it's something I'd really like to see. For his experience level, Weidman is an excellent grappler, but Maia is considerably better. My hope is that Weidman really goes after Maia on the ground, like Jason MacDonald did at UFC 87 in a great fight. Ultimately though, I think Maia is too good on the ground and his stand-up isn't too bad either.

Winner: Maia, Submission, Round 2.

The staff picks Demian Maia, 3-2.

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Middleweight Bout: Chael Sonnen (#2 MW) vs. Michael Bisping (#7 MW)

Wyatt Beougher: While it's not quite as awesome as Sonnen facing Munoz, this is still the fight I'm most excited about on the entire card. I'd like to write up a long, detailed breakdown of this fight, but why? I can break it down in one sentence – Sonnen is a world-class wrestler; Bisping is British, thus he can't wrestle. Okay, okay, stereotypes aside, Bisping's actually a decent wrestler, but if Sonnen wants to put "the Count" on his back, he will. And while Bisping does have enough power to finish this fight, Sonnen pretty much only loses by submission, and while Bisping does own four submission victories (one by strikes), I don't really think his submission game is going to be a huge factor in this fight. On the other hand, Sonnen is coming off of a submission victory against Brian Stann, and it'll be interesting to see if he tries to win this fight with his grappling again, perhaps to send a message to Anderson Silva. Considering Bisping's never lost by submission, though, I look for Sonnen to play it safe, use his smothering wrestling to control the pace of the fight (and Bisping) and pick up the decision win.

Winner: Chael Sonnen, Unanimous Decision

Jon Butterfield: This fight feels a little bit like a less stellar version of Georges St Pierre vs Nick Diaz. Like GSP, Sonnen has a huge wrestling advantage and will likely score takedowns at will, but for the entire time they're on the feet, Bisping (and Diaz) will be incredibly dangerous, live opponents. These days, the top level wrestler is usually favoured against the top level striker, mainly since they can dictate where a fight takes place – but Diaz and Bisping don't rely on single punch knockouts and aren't likely to miss their targets; instead, they really on draining, high-volume combination attacks that find their mark nine times out of ten. They also both possess outstanding cardio – but then Sonnen and GSP are hardly strangers to decisions themselves… So, will Sonnen, in this ‘preview' of the Welterweight title fight, control Bisping in a wrestling-heavy assault, or will he try and do a little too much to impress, take too many shots on the feet (particularly to the body), and suffer in the latter two rounds? Well, it's hard to say, but the likelihood is Sonnen simply plays this safe, uses his one (and pretty much only) strength and stifles Bisping for 15 minutes. I hope not, but it's the likely outcome.

Winner: Chael Sonnen, Decision

Robert Winfree: Two of MMA's least favorite fighters go head to head. Honestly I'll just be happy if Bisping gets hurt here, since he's the one guy I can't bring myself to feel neutral about. If Bisping wins, we get to see Anderson Silva destroy him, which is definitely a huge positive for the MMA world. That said, I don't see how he can beat Sonnen. Sonnen has the best wrestling in the middleweight division, and while Bisping has pretty good takedown defense and solid hip escapes from the bottom, he isn't offensive from his back. Bisping's only path to victory is the old jab and move offense, and Sonnen wont let him do that.

Winner: Chael Sonnen, Decision

Jeffrey Harris: Honestly I'm glad this fight is happening and it's a better match-up in my opinion than Munoz vs. Sonnen. Bisping, no matter what you might say, is a really experienced opponent and you don't win 12 fights in the UFC with the only losses Bisping has had by being a bad fighter. Bisping's takedown defense is underrated and even Rashad Evans had trouble keeping the Brit on the ground and controlling him there and that was at light heavyweight. Both guys took this fight on short notice which could very well affect the outcome. Still, Bisping did not have his best performance in his last fight against Jason "Mayhem" Miller. While Sonnen on the other hand submitted and put away the fast rising star, Brian Stann. Now the way these two match-ups, if Bisping has shown a stronger and better proficiency for submissions off his back I might be more likely to pick him. I think Bisping has a shot here if he's able to stuff the takedowns and just keep hitting and moving away. But I'm not sure he will be able to stave off the attack and double leg of Sonnen for three rounds. I think Sonnen will edge it out.

Winner: Chael Sonnen, Decision

Dan Plunkett: The fight itself may not end up being very exciting, but the crowd reactions should make this a memorable one. Chael is better wrestler, but Bisping's takedown defense isn't bad and he's good at getting up off his back. Bisping has very solid striking, but he hasn't shown to posess knockout power. I think Sonnen is able to take Bisping down and win the fight.

Winner: Sonnen, Decision.

The staff picks Chael Sonnen, 5-0.

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Light Heavyweight Bout: Rashad Evans (#3 LHW) vs. Phil Davis (#7 LHW)

Wyatt Beougher: Why I want Phil Davis to win – 1. he's a wrestler, and most of my favorite fighters are wrestlers, 2. he went to Penn State, and so did I, and 3. Rashad Evans is a smug jackass who needs to get his ass handed to him and YET AGAIN prevent him from getting a title shot. Why I think Rashad Evans will probably win – 1. he's also a wrestler, and a pretty good one, at that, 2. he's got more big fight experience than Davis, and 3. for all of his pre-fight bravado, with a title shot on the line, he'll play it as safe as possible to make sure he gets a fight with Bones. So do I go with my head or with my heart? I'm going with my heart – Davis picks up the win and gives Penn Staters something to be happy about.

Winner: Phil Davis, Split Decision

Jon Butterfield: Davis definitely has a chance here, but this fight still feels a little early for him. His performance against Lil' Nog was just about good enough to earn him a decision, but he still seemed to lose a little lustre – for me, I think this was the point people realized he wasn't quite Jon Jones mk 2. Still, Davis is a tremendous talent, has the wrestling chops to deny Evans the chance to get out of trouble with a well-timed takedown or two, but really, who is the one we expect to seek takedowns during the stand up exchanges? I say it's more likely to be Davis. Evans has quality MMA-oriented boxing and a hell of a lot more experience using it. If this goes the way I anticipate, it's going to be a long night for Davis – but the fight WILL be close.

Winner: Rashad Evans, Decision

Robert Winfree: I'm not going to lie, I'm not really inspired by this fight. Phil Davis has used his wrestling and submission skills to beat all of his previous opponents, but Rashad Evans is a huge step up in competition for Davis. I don't think Rashad can take Davis down, but Rashad has much more fluid striking and more power in his hands. The big question is if Phil Davis can take Rashad down, and take him down and hold him there consistently. I don't think he will be able to consistently, but he's too good an athlete to miss all of his takedowns against the smaller Evans. This wont be a very exciting fight, but it will be close.

Winner: Rashad Evans, Decision

Jeffrey Harris: This is a big step up in competition for Phil Davis, but at the same time it is a good test for him to see how good he is and what he needs to work on. Davis is a very good fighter and he's gotten by with extremely good wrestling and grappling skills. I think his problem has been with transitions and bringing all the aspects of his game together. Now Davis hasn't fought in nearly a year so hopefully he's worked on these things, but at the same time he hasn't been fighting in almost a year so ring rust could be a factor. Just in terms of how these guys have fought in the cage against top competition, I have to give the edge to Rashad Evans. Davis definitely brings the better wrestling credentials and background, but Evans is no slouch in the cage himself with wrestling and he is a much better power striker and boxing. I think Evans gets the knockout at some point before fight is over.

Winner: Rashad Evans, TKO, Round Two

Dan Plunkett: Davis should be the better wrestler, but the question is how much of a better wrestler he is. If Rashad is able to continually get back up from the takedown, his striking has developed to the point that he should be able to beat Davis. I like Rashad here.

Winner: Evans, TKO, Round 3.

The staff picks Rashad Evans, 4-1.

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