The Greatest MMA News Column 01.31.12: Two Big Fights

Posted by Dan Plunkett on 01.31.2012

411's Dan Plunkett takes a look at the upcoming match-ups of Jon Jones vs. Rashad Evans and Anderson Silva vs. Chael Sonnen II and what kind of business they'll do. Plus, thoughts on UFC on FOX 2, the UFC's next FOX special, UFC 143 'By the Numbers' and more!



UFC on FOX: Evans vs. Davis Thoughts

It may sound a bit strange, but UFC on FOX 2 was a considerably more important show than the first. For starters, the second television rating is more important than the first one. The UFC's first show on FOX did a 3.1 rating (3.5 if you include the FOX Deportes feed), an impressive number considering there was only a minute of fighting. Traditionally, main events grow in viewership as the fight goes on, so the longer the main event the better it is for the rating. Had the Cain Velasquez-Junior dos Santos heavyweight title fight gone to a decision and not been horribly bad, it would have done around a 4.0 rating. All told, that rating should be considered a success, but plenty of network television programming has pulled a big first rating and then flopped. Remember Celebrity Boxing and the XFL? The overnight rating for Saturday night's second FOX special came in at a 2.7, which isn't great, but it's fine. In a way, that rating being just fine a win for the UFC, because it shows they don't have to put big pay-per-view caliber fights on FOX to succeed. Considering how many PPV and television events the UFC is running in 2012, not having to worry about delivering really big main events for free TV that could have drawn money on pay-per-view is relieving for the UFC.

The other reason the show was so important was because two of their most promising big money fights hung in the balance on the show. In the main event, Rashad Evans, who has been feuding with champion Jon Jones for nearly a year now, took on the undefeated Phil Davis. In the co-main event, Chael Sonnen, who fans have been clamoring to see rematch middleweight champion Anderson Silva, fought Michael Bisping. Evans vs. Jones and Sonnen vs. Silva make up half of what look to be the UFC's four biggest fights of 2012, along with Junior dos Santos vs. Alistair Overeem and Georges St-Pierre vs. Nick Diaz (which will only happen if Diaz wins this weekend). Thankfully for the UFC, both Evans and Sonnen came out on top in their fights, although neither had very inspiring performances.

Overall, I didn't think the show was bad, but it certainly wasn't good. Perhaps it could be best categorized as slightly below average. Rashad Evans proved to be considerably superior to Phil Davis in the main event. Evans just did everything better than Davis in this fight, winning a lopsided 50-45 decision on all three judges' scorecards. The fight wasn't bad, but by the end of the first or at least in the second round, it became clear that Davis had nothing to offer Rashad. It simultaneously became clear that this was a fight that was going to go to the judges' cards, which took a lot excitement away from the viewing experience.



After the fight, Jon Jones opened up as a 6-to-1 favorite over Evans for their scheduled April fight in Atlanta. I don't think Evans is quite that big of an underdog, but I certainly favor Jones. One thing of note about that pay-per-view is that while it's expected to do quite well, it has a much different element than the typical big UFC PPV. The Jones-Evans "good friends, better enemies" feud and long delay is one that should make anticipation paramount by fight time. However, the question in my mind is whether Jon Jones is the right foil for Rashad Evans. Evans, for whatever reason, is among the most hated fighters in the company. In his feud with Quinton Jackson, the fans were firmly in the corner of Jackson and their fight did great business. But Jon Jones is by no means a fan favorite like Jackson. After he won the title there seemed to be a bit of fan backlash against Jones, though he has generally been cheered in his fights since. Still, he's a 24-year-old champion that, with the exception of Lyoto Machida, has dominated every single fighter in his path since emerging as the future of the division in 2009. Jones is looked at as a guy with the potential to be a big star, but his three title fights haven't even drawn as well as Lyoto Machida's three title fights. There is something to be said about Machida's reign coming at a point when the UFC was a much hotter commodity than they have been since Jones took the gold, but the point remains that Jones has yet to show the ability to draw big. For a down year like 2011, he was actually a good draw, but in comparison to other shows over the past 3-4 years and his numbers are slightly below average and just okay.

This isn't to say that Jones vs. Evans won't draw, because it will, but it remains to be seen just how big of a draw it will be. With a Primetime series behind it to tell the story, which is a treatment it really should get, the fight should do quite well, but it's not a fight I see doing a million buys. That's not to disparage it, because a million buys is a hell of a lot. The true testament to the success of Jones-Evans will be where it takes Jones as a draw. If Jones wins and his next fight is back hovering in the vicinity of 500,000 buys (unless it's against a complete no-name opponent), then it's a disappointment. But if his next fight is up, even to about the 550,000-575,000 range, then you'll know who to thank.

Chael Sonnen and Michael Bisping had far and away the best fight on the FOX portion of the event. The fight was a competitive, three round battle for the right to fight middleweight champion Anderson Silva. The first two rounds were very close; I had Bisping winning the first and Sonnen the second, but you could really have scored either round for either fighter without argument. Sonnen clearly took home the third, mounting Bisping for a good amount of time in what was the most dominant portion of the fight. Sonnen won a unanimous decision, including a 30-27 score from one judge that Michael Bisping didn't like, but there's nothing wrong with that scoring. UFC commentator Joe Rogan seemed to think Bisping won the fight, but one of his flaws as a commentator is that he sometimes ignores that rounds could go either way and makes a point to say that one fighter probably needs a finish to win the fight. When that fighter ends up winning the fight by decision, it can make a fair decision look unwarranted or controversial.

Even in defeat, I was impressed with Michael Bisping in this fight. For the most part, the fight went how I thought it would for the first two rounds. Chael was able to take Bisping down at points, but Bisping got right back to his feet. Striking-wise, Bisping was getting the better of Chael when at a distance. What I didn't count on was Bisping controlling Chael in the clinch and pressing him against the fence. I thought Sonnen would be able to out-muscle and out-maneuver Bisping there to make it a more clear-cut decision, but that certainly wasn't the case. One must wonder how Bisping would have fared had he known he was facing Sonnen for his entire training camp. This was one of the rare examples of a fighter advancing himself in defeat. Bisping made it clear in this fight that he can compete with the best of middleweights.

Sonnen now moves on to a showdown with the greatest fighter in mixed martial arts history, Anderson Silva. The likely date for the fight is June 16 in Sao Paulo, Brazil, but that isn't confirmed at this point. Many have critiqued Sonnen's performance against Bisping and come to the conclusion that if he shows up as the same fighter against Anderson he won't emerge as the champion. I don't think that is necessarily the case because Bisping's takedown defense and ability to scramble back to his feet are both better than Anderson's. Those two factors are really the things Chael had the most trouble with, so if Sonnen loses to Silva I don't think it will be for an inability to take the champion to the ground.



Silva vs. Sonnen II has been heavily anticipated since their first fight came to an end. By the time the rematch takes place, it will almost be two years since that fight. First Chael's post-fight drug test came back showing raised levels of testosterone, causing him to be suspended for a year. That suspension was reduced to six months, but he then found himself in hot water with the athletic commissions in California and Nevada for the testimony he gave in his appeal. Sonnen returned in October with a dominant win over Brian Stann and called Silva out for Super Bowl weekend, but the champion was sidelined with an injury.

As previously mentioned, this is one of the "big four" match-ups of the year. This fight is unique from the others in that it will take place outside of North America, and traditionally buy rates of UFC events held outside of the United States and Canada have are relatively low. January 14's UFC 142 took place in Brazil and is currently estimated at about 225,000 buys, though it was an event that lacked star power and would have performed poorly regardless of where it was held. August's UFC 134 was the UFC's first Brazilian event in a decade and had a main event fighter generally believed to be the third-biggest draw in the company at the time. That show disappointed with 335,000 domestic buys. The North American market is far and away the leading consumer of UFC PPVs, so when events are held overseas and much of their promotional push is decentralized from the U.S. and Canada, pay-per-view buys suffer. Furthermore, most of the prominent U.S. and Canadian media outlets don't pony up the money to make the trip overseas to cover the show. In this particular case, that means fewer chances for Chael Sonnen (who, for the record, should have mentioned Anderson Silva in his post-fight interview on Saturday) to push the fight in the final week – something that could be used to create a late buzz for the event. A big fight like Silva-Sonnen II is one that may very well capture the attention of ESPN, and when they really take notice of a UFC event they usually end up doing better PPV numbers for it.

This is one event though where the business success can't just be measured in terms of pay-per-view buys. Make no mistake about it, this is going be a really big event in Brazil. Most likely, the top two fights on the card are going to be Silva vs. Sonnen and Vitor Belfort vs. Wanderlei Silva. The latter should have a ton of hype after a season of Brazil's first Ultimate Fighter in addition to Belfort already being a big star in the country. The media presence in Brazil for this event will be incredible and it should do a big TV rating.

So the UFC is most likely giving up pay-per-view dollars, but that decision may prove to be with merit. Plus, there is a chance that the idea of the fight being in Brazil gets over though. After all, it is slated to be a stadium show and with Sonnen's past remarks about the country, that could become a point of interest.

Chris Weidman beat Demian Maia by decision in a terrible fight. My hope was that this turned into a really fun grappling match, but each time Weidman took Maia down the Brazilian was able to get back to his feet. Both guys tired quickly and were completely exhausted by the third round. Weidman has a legitimate excuse for that because he took the fight on eleven days' notice, but Maia has known he was fighting on this date since probably late-November. He doesn't have an excuse for tiring the way he did.

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UFC 143: Diaz vs. Condit
By the Numbers

2 - Number of fights Carlos Condit nearly lost in his four fight win streak. This by no means insinuates that Condit doesn't deserve to be fighting for the (interim) title, but rather how if just one small thing went differently he wouldn't be in this position. Condit entered the UFC in 2009 after a run as WEC champion. He first fought Martin Kampmann in a fantastic fight, losing by split-decision. In his next bout, Condit took on UFC new comer Jake Ellenberger, who replaced an injured Chris Lytle (the UFC would try to make Condit vs. Lytle at least one more time, with Condit getting injured before they could fight in February of last year). The fight was incredible (in my UFC Best of 2009 DVD review I called the first round the best of the year) and truly could have gone either way, but two judges scored it for Condit. Then in June of 2010, Condit faced young Rory MacDonald. Surprisingly, MacDonald clearly won the first two rounds against Condit. But Condit took over in the third, and the referee made a controversial stoppage in Condit's favor with seven seconds left in the fight. Had the fight not been stopped, in all likelihood it would have went down either as a loss for Condit or a draw if at least two judges scored the last round 10-8 for "The Natural Born Killer."

1 - Combined number of times Diaz and Condit have gone the full five round distance out of 9 opportunities. That one time happened in October of 2010 when Diaz, then the Strikeforce welterweight champion, defeated his old nemesis K.J. Noons by decision. Diaz, an avid competitor in triathlons, may very well be the best-conditioned athlete in mixed martial arts. Despite being the single most prolific puncher in the sport, I can't recall him ever tiring in a fight. Condit is also one of the most active fighters in the sport, but he has noticeably tired in the past, most notably in his 2008 fourth round win over Hiromitsu Miura. But even when he is tired, Condit doesn't relent in his attack, which shows remarkable heart.

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NEWS!

Jim Miller vs. Nate Diaz set for UFC on FOX 3 on May 5 in New Jersey. The unfortunate thing about the UFC's specials on FOX thus far is that they have yet to showcase a great fight. There was the perfect opportunity with the Ben Henderson-Clay Guida bout on the first show, but they didn't air that on FOX. With this fight, that streak will in all likelihood come to an end. It's pretty much impossible for a Diaz brother to be in a bad fight and Jim Miller has been involved in a string of good-to-great fights as of late. I'm looking forward to this one, but I wonder what the main event could be. My hope would be that they stick with the lightweights and do the Henderson-Edgar winner against the Lauzon-Pettis winner, particularly if Pettis beats Lauzon. That way Henderson-Pettis is an easy sell with the first fight being so great and having the Showtime Kick and all, and Edgar is a natural fit to headline in New Jersey. I'm not sure how the UFC feels about giving away title fights on FOX, but it's not as though they'd be giving away a big PPV fight. Another option would be Tito Ortiz's retirement fight, which would be nice and do a good rating, but it's not something that would build towards a PPV fight. Other potential fights I came up with were the inaugural flyweight title fight, Jose Aldo vs. Hatsu Hioki (those two would need big names in the co-main event though), BJ Penn vs. Josh Koscheck (good rating, problem of not building towards PPV), and Frank Mir vs. Cain Velasquez.

Dana White is not afraid of the internet. In an interview with MMAFighting.com's Ariel Helwani, UFC president Dana White made it a point to say he was not afraid of the internet. Evidently some of those on this "internet" device were listening, and they responded. This came in the aftermath of UFC.com behind hacked, presumably due to the company's support of the awful SOPA bill. The group Anonymous, apparently the ones behind the hack of the website, then posted what was apparently Dana White's personal information including social security number, phone numbers, and address. The only problem is that none of the information posted was Dana White's. One of the phone numbers and the address was for a Las Vegas woman named Julie Breeler, who was subsequently harassed by callers thinking she was White. Dana has since apologized to Breeler for the trouble. A good old fashioned "no comment" probably would have sufficed in regards to Helwani's question.

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That's it for this week. Thanks for reading; I hope you enjoyed it. You can join 116 others and follow me on Twitter if you please. Feel free to leave feedback in the comment box or at the e-mail address below.