Locked in the Guilltoine News Report 02.03.12 The Natural Born Killer Edition

Posted by Robert Winfree on 02.03.2012

Thoughts on Dana White's open challenge to hackers and what came of it, a preview of the big welterweight showdown between Nick Diaz and Carlos Condit, a review of UFC's on FOX 2 and more!

Greetings loyal readers, it's Friday and we all know what that means. Lots to discuss this week, the big UFC on FOX show happened on Saturday, and the big interim title fight between Carlos Condit and Nick Diaz is right around the corner. Drop your head and take a read, you're Locked in the Guillotine again.

Feedback

My look at same day weigh ins seemed to spark some interest, let's take a look.
Guest#7331 agreed with my assessment that Jon Anik and Kenny Florian sound alike. Apparently it wasn't just me; I believe Stewart Lange had a similar issue. Both men seem capable, but sounding so much alike does tend cause problems for the viewers.
Guest#4712 brought up another relevant point for same day weigh ins, in that if a fighter misses weight and his opponent doesn't agree to a catchweight fight there would be further logistical problems. He also notes that fighters would probably go to some extreme lengths to make weight and still try to be competitive.
Guest#0009 expressed confidence in my fighting skills, saying I could beat many of the current UFC fighters the day they cut weight. I appreciate the vote of confidence, but my cardio is really bad right now.
wylun puts out the theory of weighing in on fight day with a limit on how much a fighter can put back on. That seems to be a theory that's gaining more weight now that most people have admitted that same day weigh ins aren't going to happen.
Buzz pointed out that plenty of coaches might alter their strategies to keep the fighters walking around near their fight weight. A valid strategy, but some guys are just too big to do that and stay healthy, others though could really benefit from it.
Guest#4850 points to the fight between Maia and Weidman (more on that a bit further down) as an argument for same day weigh ins. The thing about that is I don't think Maia cuts that much weight, and Weidman took the fight on short-ish notice. Plus the match ups weren't exciting, that's just the nature of the fighters booked on that event.
As always thanks for your comments, hopefully there will be more this week.

News

Dana White, not afraid of the Internet

During an interview with Ariel Helwani UFC President Dana White brought up internet hackers and the general feeling of people towards the internet community. For those unaware of the back story here the UFC's website was "hacked" in response to Dana White's support of the SOPA act and others similar to it. There are several industries that are hurt because of internet piracy, and the UFC is one so it makes sense for them to support efforts to shut it down. The internet pirates responded by hacking the UFC's website. White noted that this was probably a bad move; the bill itself was put on hold prior to that incident because plenty of people believed that while the idea of trying to shut down piracy is good, this bill wasn't set up properly. Because of those events there is now the possibility that the bill will be revived. He noted that actions like that make the hackers appear like terrorists, a big title to drop and that you can't fight the government. That last part is ridiculous; governments all over the world all throughout history have been fought and overthrown, in some cases with startling regularity. I tend to find the way Dana White handles himself refreshing, because hearing someone essentially read from a script gets boring really quickly. That said, this is one of those times when it might have been better for Dana to respond with a simple "No comment." Provoking people with aptitude for computer hacking who probably have nothing better to do than respond to White's taunts probably isn't the wisest thing in the world.


Bring it on Internet

GSP wants Diaz

Georges St. Pierre has gone on record stating he wants to fight Nick Diaz, most notably after some remarks Diaz made after GSP was forced to pull out of his title defense against Carlos Condit. That is a horrible stylistic match up for Diaz, and should be a relatively easy defense for GSP if the fight happens. GSP will also host the Q&A session before the weigh ins for UFC 143, which should be fun. GSP isn't going to spew nonsense like Chael Sonnen, and should prove to be an informative and entertaining host.

UFC on FOX ratings

The total average viewership for the UFC's second prime time broadcast clocked in at 4.85 million viewers. This is a pretty good number for the event as a whole, and the main event actually averaged 6.1 million viewers. This is a good number for a show on a Saturday evening for a sport still gaining its footing. The production was much smoother this time around, the transitions between the broadcast team of Goldberg and Rogan and the team of Kurt Menefee, Kenny Florian, and Ariel Helwani were well placed and added to the broadcast instead of taking away from it. Now all the UFC needs is a really exciting fight for one of these shows, and given that a fight between Nate Diaz and Jim Miller is scheduled to air on the next one these shows are gaining momentum.






The UFC's second event on FOX went down on Saturday; let's take a look at what happened.

Johnson arrives in style: Lavar Johnson made a huge impression in his UFC debut stopping Joey Beltran by KO in the first round. Beltran went three rounds with Pat Barry and lasted, Johnson stopped him in the first. Johnson could be a real player at heavyweight if he keeps up this form and shows improvement.

Another Johnson another win: Michael Johnson scored a unanimous decision win over Shane Roller. This was a pretty fun fight, mostly it highlighted that Johnson has begun using his athleticism to improve his technique. Decent fight to keep the night rolling.

What was that?!: Charles Oliveira scored a first round submission victory over Eric Wisely with a leg lock move that I've never seen before. Research has informed me that it's called a Calf Crusher and it's a nasty leg lock if you can get it. Great win for Oliveira in his featherweight debut.

Swanson finds his range: Cub Swanson TKO'd George Roop in the second round. Cub took much of the first round finding his range, and both guys were throwing down. In the second he seemed to settle down, covered up well and landed a huge overhand right on the jaw of Roop and it was all over from there. Fun fight and a good win for Swanson.

Mediocre heavyweights = boring fight: Mike Russow scored a unanimous decision victory over John-Olav Einemo in a fight that didn't feature a ton of action. Mostly Russow was able to score takedowns and avoid possible submissions from the former ADCC winner. Mostly this fight had Russow using the lay and pray tactic, but with Einemo unable to muster enough offense to make him reconsider his strategy. Russow gets the win in his home town here.

Dunham stops the Carny: Evan Dunham became the first man to stop Nick Lentz inside the Octagon when the doctors stopped the fight after the second round. Lentz had a nasty cut under his left eye as well as swelling that made it impossible for Lentz to continue. Good fight for Dunham who seems to be regaining his form. Very good fight, early candidate for fight of the night.

Not the best way to start the broadcast: Chris Weidman scored a split decision victory over Demian Maia in the first broadcast of the main card. This was a boring sloppy stand up fight that did neither fighter any favors. I don't know what's been up with Maia, but he has lost his fighting mojo lately. This was a big step up for Weidman, but he didn't look like a world beater.

Sonnen gets his rematch: Chael Sonnen defeated Michael Bisping via unanimous decision in a fight that was much closer than most predicted. For rounds one and two Bisping was able to scramble back to his feet from under Sonnen, it wasn't until the third round that Sonnen was able to get Bisping down and really smother him. The shocking thing was how effective Bisping was with his takedown defense and clinch work against Sonnen. If Sonnen shows up and fights like this against Anderson Silva he'll be finished inside of two rounds. Hopefully Silva has been training his wrestling.

Evans vs. Jones is set: Rashad Evans defeated Phil Davis by unanimous decision in a fairly uninspired fight. Not at all a bad fight, but it just seemed kind of underwhelming. Hopefully this fight will be a learning experience and Phil Davis will come back better. For Evans, he's the next on the hit list for Jon Jones in a fight that should be pretty good.



The UFC kicks off February with a bang, and one of the better cards on paper that we've seen in quite some time. Of course the main event is what everyone is looking forward to, and with very good reason. Let's take a look at the card.

Ed Herman vs. Clifford Starks: This should be a fun little scrap, but really this is Herman's fight to lose. Since returning from his leg injury Herman has been on fire, and if he brings that same fire here he'll run through Starks. Starks is a good wrestler and very tough, but Herman is more experienced and more well rounded and should take this one. It's a somewhat sad statement that with this win and one or two more Ed Herman could get a shot at the middleweight championship.

Renan Barao vs. Scott Jorgensen: Now this is a fight. Barao is currently riding a ridiculous 27 fight win streak, granted not all of those wins are over top flight competition, but he's clearly a talented kid. His win over the tough Brad Pickett in his last outing should have generated more talk than it did. Jorgensen is a wrestler primarily, but he has good power in his hands especially for a lighter weight class. Jorgensen's path to victory here involves taking Barao down and grinding out a decision, but Barao is no slouch off of his back. This one should be Barao's coming out party and with a win he should get the next title shot.

Josh Koscheck vs. Mike Pierce: Mike Pierce is one of the younger guard of welterweight fighters who seem to be rising up and overthrowing the old guard. That said, I think he's biting off more than he can chew here. Pierce has a problem with fighters who are better wrestlers than he is, and Koscheck is one of the better wrestlers in the welterweight division. Pierce could win if he catches Koscheck standing, but I think Koscheck uses his wrestling and gets the win here.

Roy Nelson vs. Fabricio Werdum: Well, the night just wouldn't be complete without a heavyweight fight featuring mediocre fighters. This will be the first time Werdum has entered the Octagon since some guy making his debut named Junior dos Santos KO'd him so hard his ears wiggled him right out of the UFC. Werdum became the first guy to legitimately beat Fedor Emelianenko, but went out and laid an absolute egg against Alistair Overeem. Roy Nelson is 1-2 in his last three fights, but those losses came to Junior dos Santos and Frank Mir. After the Mir fight Nelson made a concentrated effort to slim down and it was obvious he'd lost some of the excess body fat when he fought Mirko Cro Cop. If he's lost about the same amount of weight, something between five and fifteen pounds, I think Werdum is in trouble. Nelson is a very good grappler in his own right, and he won't be afraid to go to the ground with Werdum if he rocks him on the feet like Overeem was. On the feet Nelson has legitimate one punch KO power, something that should worry Werdum. I think Big Country takes this one, but hopefully this won't be a slow plodding affair.

Nick Diaz vs. Carlos Condit: This is as competitive a title fight as the welterweight division has seen in years. Granted it's just for the interim belt, but these two are guaranteed to throw down until the final bell sounds or one of them falls over. Nick Diaz hasn't lost a fight since KJ Noons opened up his face to the point the doctors stopped the fight. Not all of his competition has been that good, and Condit will be the best fighter he's faced in a long time by a pretty wide margin. Diaz uses a punching oriented attack to wear down his opponents and excels at backing them against the cage and unloading until they fall down. His submission skills are some of the best in the division, though his wrestling is pretty much nonexistent. For Diaz to win he'll need to walk Condit down and wear him out with punches, because he won't take Condit down though he might get Condit to shoot on him and then work off of his back for a submission.

Carlos Condit hasn't lost since his split decision loss to Martin Kampmann in his UFC debut. Condit has also gone the distance a grand total of twice in his entire career, which should be a very telling stat. Condit enters every fight looking to take his opponent out, and does everything he can to create those openings for himself. The last time Condit had trouble in a fight was against Rory MacDonald, but MacDonald used his wrestling and athleticism to trouble Condit while Diaz won't have the advantage in either area against Condit. Condit also has a diverse striking attack as he throws kicks, knees, elbows and punches to constantly keep his opponents off balance. On the ground Condit is no slouch, and while he might be at a deficit in a straight jiujitsu match, his wrestling and submission skills in MMA could prove troublesome for Diaz, or at the very least should prevent him from falling victim to an obvious submission.

Diaz has the edge in cardio, but Condit won't get tired easily and even if he does he fights through it with his heart. The two men have remarkably similar reaches, but Condit uses kicks more than Diaz and has the edge in one punch power. Diaz is a very flat footed fighter and very hittable as demonstrated by Paul Daley. The big difference is that if Condit hurts Diaz with a punch he's not going to stop, he'll swarm until the referee pulls him off. Diaz is a very talented fighter, but I think Condit has more tools at his disposal and takes this one.

And with that bold prediction this week's column comes to a close. Come back next week to see how I did with my predictions, and all the other goodness that you've come to expect from me. Until then you've escaped the Guillotine.