411's MMA Roundtable - UFC 143: Diaz vs. Condit

Posted by Dan Plunkett on 02.03.2012

Nick Diaz and Carlos Condit fight for the interim welterweight title in the main event of UFC 143! Also, Roy Nelson fights the returning Fabricio Werdum, Josh Koscheck battles Mike Pierce, and more! Get ready for the show with 411's full roundtable preview and join us for LIVE coverage on Saturday night!

WELCOME:
Nick Diaz and Carlos Condit fight for the interim welterweight title in the main event of UFC 143! In the co-main event, Fabricio Werdum returns to the UFC against Roy Nelson. Also in welterweight action, Josh Koscheck battles Mike Pierce. Plus, Renan Barao takes on Scott Jorgensen, Ed Herman vs. Clifford Starks, and more!

THE STAFF:

From The Juggernaut MMA News Report, Jonathan Solomon!

From MMA on Tap!, Jon Butterfield!

From Locked in the Guillotine, Robert Winfree!

From Five Quick Rounds, Wyatt Beougher!

From MMA's 3R's, Jeffrey Harris!

From Thoughts From Across the Pond, Alex Watt!

And from the Greatest MMA News Column, Dan Plunkett!



THE PRELIMINARY CARD:
First two prelims to air on Facebook.com, rest on FX
Welterweight Bout: Dan Stittgen vs. Stephen Thompson

Jonathan Solomon: Dan Stittgen, Submission, Round 2
Jon Butterfield: Stephen Thompson, TKO, Round One
Robert Winfree: Stephen Thompson, TKO Round 1
Wyatt Beougher: Dan Stittgen, Submission, Round One
Jeffrey Harris Dan Stittgen, Submission, Round 1
Alex Watt: Stephen Thompson, TKO, Round 1
Dan Plunkett: Thompson, Decision.
The staff picks Stephen Thompson, 4-3.

Middleweight Bout: Rafael Natal vs. Michael Kuiper

Jonathan Solomon: Michael Kuiper, Decision
Jon Butterfield: Rafael Natal, Decision
Robert Winfree: Rafael Natal, Decision
Wyatt Beougher: Michael Kuiper, TKO, Round Two
Jeffrey Harris: Rafael Natal, Decision
Alex Watt: Rafael Natal, Decision
Dan Plunkett: Natal, Decision.
The staff picks Rafael Natal, 5-2.

Welterweight Bout: Matt Brown vs. Chris Cope

Jonathan Solomon: Chris Cope, Decision
Jon Butterfield: Matt Brown, Decision
Robert Winfree: Chris Cope, Decision
Wyatt Beougher: Matt Brown, Decision
Jeffrey Harris: Chris Cope, Decision
Alex Watt: Matt Brown, Decision
Dan Plunkett: Brown, Decision.
The staff picks Matt Brown, 4-3.

Bantamweight Bout: Alex Caceres vs. Edwin Figueroa

Jonathan Solomon: Edwin Figueroa, TKO, Round 2
Jon Butterfield: Edwin Figueroa, Decision
Robert Winfree: Alex Caceres, Decision
Wyatt Beougher: Edwin Figueroa, TKO, Round Three
Jeffrey Harris: Edwin Figueroa, Submission, Round 1
Alex Watt: Edwin Figueroa, Decision
Dan Plunkett: Caceres, Decision.
The staff picks Edwin Figueroa, 5-2.

Welterweight Bout: Matt Riddle vs. Henry Martinez

Jonathan Solomon: Matt Riddle, Decision
Jon Butterfield: Matt Riddle, Decision
Robert Winfree: Matt Riddle, Decision
Wyatt Beougher: Matt Riddle, Decision
Jeffrey Harris: Matt Riddle, Decision
Alex Watt: Matt Riddle, Decision
Dan Plunkett: Riddle, Decision.
The staff picks Matt Riddle, 7-0.

Featherweight Bout: Dustin Poirier vs. Max Holloway

Jonathan Solomon: Dustin Poirier, TKO, Round 1
Jon Butterfield: Dustin Poirier, Submission, Round One
Robert Winfree: Dustin Poirier, TKO Round 1
Wyatt Beougher: Dustin Poirier, TKO, Round 2
Jeffrey Harris: Dustin Poirier, TKO, Round 1
Alex Watt: Dustin Poirier, TKO, Round 2
Dan Plunket: Poirier, TKO, Round 2.
The staff picks Dustin Poirier, 7-0.

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THE MAIN CARD:
Middleweight Bout: Ed Herman vs. Clifford Starks

Jonathan Solomon: Starks is a former Division-I wrestler at Arizona State and is 8-0 since turning to MMA in 2009. Herman is 2-0 since returning from injuries last year with impressive finishes against Tim Credeur and Kyle Noke. I have not seen enough of Starks striking to believe he can stand and trade with Herman for a prolonged period of time. His game plan will almost certainly rely on takedowns and preventing stand-ups. However, Herman's takedown defense may be good enough to prevent that plus, he has an active guard. Starks won't be able to keep Herman down for 15 minutes and somewhere along the road, Herman will finish him.

Winner: Ed Herman, TKO, Round 2

Jon Butterfield: First of all, Ed Herman is a HUGE step up from Dustin Jacoby, that much is clear. Second of all, Herman has looked an absolute beast since his near-two year lay off from the sport. I rate both Tim Credeur and Kyle Noke as quality opposition, and neither is easy to finish – and Herman disposed of both in a combined time of 5 minutes, 3 seconds. That's bad ass right there, and this fight looks extremely winnable as Herman looks to put a nice little streak together. Starks will try to stifle ‘Short Fuse' by clinching and wrestling, but I don't like his chances of holding Herman down or pinning him to the cage for three full rounds – in fact, I don't like his chances of doing it for ONE round! Herman looks a very solid choice for me here, and I expect a finish.

Winner: Ed Herman, Submission, Round One

Robert Winfree: I don't care too much about this fight, but since it's on the main card I have to actually devote some effort to talking about it. Ed Herman has looked very good since returning from his injury, and I don't think Starks is the quality of fighter to challenge him here.

Winner: Ed Herman, TKO Round 2

Wyatt Beougher: While Starks certainly has power enough in his hands to finish the fight, Ed Herman's only TKO loss came as the result of a knee injury. Since his return from said knee injury, Herman has looked dominant in his fights with Riddle and Noke, and I look for him to continue that dominance here.

Winner: Ed Herman, Submission, Round Two

Jeffrey Harris: Interesting fight. Herman has been on fire lately since he came back from a lengthy absence. Starks is an undefeated prospect with an NCAA division I wrestling background. Granted Starks won his UFC debut against Dustin Jacoby at UFC 137. Starks could be a tough, new prospect, but the way Herman has looked lately I want to give him the edge. Herman has experience dealing with tough wrestlers and grapplers and he is I believe the superior finisher.

Winner: Ed Herman, TKO, Round 1

Alex Watt: Starks is undefeated in his MMA career since making the transition from wrestling. Ed Herman is on a nice little run of 2-0 since he returned from a long injury layoff. In those fights against Tim Credeur and Kyle Noke, Herman's striking looked very good. Unless Starks can take Herman down and hold him there then Herman should pick him apart in the stand-up.

Winner: Ed Herman, TKO, Round 1

Dan Plunkett: Everybody is picking Herman here, and you can't blame them. He's a known commodity that has looked really good of late. However, Starks is a good wrestler, and the guy with the wrestling advantage always has a solid shot at winning the fight. But like my colleagues, it's difficult to go against Herman's experience and recent success.

Winner: Herman, Submission, Round 2.

The staff picks Ed Herman, 7-0.

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Bantamweight Bout: Renan Barao vs. Scott Jorgensen

Jonathan Solomon: Barao is likely fighting for the next title shot after the Cruz/Faber fight in the spring. When we last saw the Brazilian, he had an alpha male moment where he knocked down Brad Pickett and choked him out to seal the win at UFC 138. In a fight that was expected to be closer, Barao made a statement. He will have his hands full here against one of the strongest wrestlers in the bantamweight division, Scott Jorgensen. Jorg should have more compact power but Barao has more fluid striking and can mix up leg kicks well, too. Most intriguing may be the battle on the ground because Barao is a dangerous Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu fighter while Jorgensen is a man with tremendous top control. First of all, I would not expect him to shoot for a takedown unless he is being overwhelmed on the feet. If he does go to the ground, he'll have to pick his spots so he doesn't give up an arm with which Barao will almost certainly take off. I don't want to underestimate Jorgensen's power (or his wrestling) but Barao should be able to get the better of the striking and his ground work is exceptional.

Winner: Renan Barao, Decision

Jon Butterfield: Barao looked extremely impressive when he came out, gave Brad Pickett the brawl he wanted and went on to win it handily, eventually submitting ‘One Punch' in the first round. It's hard to say, given that performance, whether Barao is better on the feet or on the ground, but one thing is for sure – he's DAMN good at both. Jorgensen, however, is no slouch, and he's got the wrestling chops to stifle Barao somewhat, but not for the entire fight. I can't see past Renan here. He really does look an exceptional talent.

Winner: Renan Barao, Submission, Round Three

Robert Winfree: This should be Renan Barao's coming out party. For as good as the guy is he is flying under the radar for most people. Scott Jorgensen is no joke, but his only advantage is wrestling and Barao is quite active off of his back and will have a distinct advantage in the stand up. Barao takes this one and should get the next title shot after Cruz beats Faber again.

Winner: Renan Barao, Decision

Wyatt Beougher: Scotty Jorgensen was campaigning for a rematch against Dominick Cruz before the UFC announced that Faber would be getting the shot, but unfortunately for him, I think his path to a rematch is going to take a SEVERE detour this weekend. Renan Barao has been amazing in his four Zuffa fights, and while I won't rule out Jorgensen, who always has a puncher's chance, the only aspect where he has a true advantage over Barao is wrestling, and, as my colleagues have pointed out, Barao is no slouch off of his back. I look for Barao to easily outpoint Jorgensen on the feet and to remain active enough off of his back if Jorgensen does get him down to pick up the win.

Winner: Renan Barao, Decision

Jeffrey Harris: Barao might have an impressive winning streak, but look at the quality of his opponents. Jorgensen for the past three years has proven to be one of the best in the world in the bantamweight division. He is the more battle tested fighter and has beaten the superior competition. Barao is tough, but Jorgensen has dealt with strong strikers before and he knows how to deal with them as well as solid grapplers. Jorgensen dominates this one and grinds out another win.

Winner: Scott Jorgensen, Decision

Alex Watt: This is a fight which isn't getting anywhere near the level of hype surrounding it as it should. With Barao and Jorgensen, two of the best competitors in the 135lbs division, this should be a great fight. Barao has the slicker striking but Jorgensen likely has more punching power. Jorgensen is a great wrestler but will he want to take the fight to the ground when Barao has such a fantastic ground game? Barao's exceptional performance against Brad Pickett at UFC 138 opened a lot of people's eyes to his talent. I expect him to impress more people here by picking Jorgensen apart on the feet and ultimately finishing him on the ground.

Winner: Renan Barao, Submission, Round 3

Dan Plunkett: It's a real shame that this fight has gotten no hype because if you consider where everyone on this card stands within their division, this is the real co-main event of the night. Barao is currently on an ungodly long unbeaten streak which he most recently extended in November with a thrilling defeat of Brad Pickett. With a win in this fight, he's at most one win away from a shot at the winner of the upcoming Dominick Cruz-Urijah Faber title bout. Jorgensen is a great opponent for him here because a decisive win over Jorgensen, a former title challenger, signifies that Barao is truly among the elite of the division. The tough thing about breaking down this fight is that it's tough to pick a winner. Jorgensen is a good wrestler with better submission skills than his purple belt in BJJ would seem to indicate. But Barao is a fighter with excellent submissions as he's shown in his time in the WEC and UFC. Both fighters are very tough and durable. I think this fight, with the exception of the main event, will be the best on the card. I can't say it with the utmost certainty, but I leaning towards Barao here.

Winner: Barao, Decision.

The staff picks Renan Barao, 6-1.

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Welterweight Bout: Josh Koscheck vs. Mike Pierce

Jonathan Solomon: Mike Pierce is a hell of a wrestler with five UFC wins, but his two losses came against Jon Fitch and Johny Hendricks (looking further, he also lost to Mark Munoz in his second MMA fight). While he has talked about breaking Josh Koscheck's will, can he really? To date, the only fighter who's been able to consistently outwrestle Koscheck was George St. Pierre (and even the rematch saw GSP spend most of his time jabbing Koscheck to the hospital). Koscheck is too good of a wrestler in MMA to fall victim so Pierce's best bet is for a knockout. As long as the former title contender doesn't get involved in a brawl and leave his chin out there for the taking, this is Koscheck's fight to lose.

Winner: Josh Koscheck, TKO, Round 1

Jon Butterfield: While I'd like to pick Pierce here, just to give the 170 lb division even MORE of a shuffle, I just can't. Pierce has lost four times in the past, ALL to wrestlers, ALL decisions. You do the math. Add to that a less-than-dominant performance against Paul Bradley in his most recent outing, and the best Pierce can hope for is to MATCH Koscheck – and by and large, looking at Pierce's record (he ran Hendricks close in a more striking-oriented bout, but lost to Jon Fitch and Nathan Coy, two high-pressure, takedown-happy fighters) I just think he's too beatable for a guy like Josh. Pierce, like Hendricks, will want to prove how good his hands are, but you know what, Koscheck is no Jon Fitch – he CAN and WILL strike when it suits him, and he's got a heck of a chin to back it up. I don't foresee any upset here, but I don't think it will be easy for Josh. I expect 15 minutes out of this one.

Winner: Josh Koscheck, Decision

Robert Winfree: Mike Pierce is a tough guy, but he can't seem to beat guys who are better wrestlers than he is. Enter Josh Koscheck, one of the better wrestlers in the division. Pierce will need a few new tricks to win this fight, and while he's capable he's not the smart bet. Koscheck is about to fall into the position previously held by Jon Fitch of beating everyone but the champ, and I have a hard time seeing him lose this fight.

Winner: Josh Koscheck, Decision

Wyatt Beougher: As Butterfield pointed out, Pierce's track record against wrestlers isn't that great, and while I, too, would like to see even more shuffle at the top of the 170-pound division, I just can't see it happening here. Pierce's best chance is catching Kos by surprise and knocking him out, or by using his jab to keep Kos on the outside, but he hasn't exactly been knocking opponents out left and right, and he'll be giving up a 2" reach advantage to Koscheck, which will make it significantly harder for Pierce to keep Kos on the outside. While I'm not sure Koscheck is ready to step into Fitch's place, I do think he'll win this fight and face the winner of the main event in July.

Winner: Josh Koscheck, Decision

Jeffrey Harris: I guess for Mike Pierce, the saying goes, "be careful what you wish for because you might just get it." Pierce called out Koscheck for this fight and got the fight he wanted when the spot opened up after Condit was penciled into the interim title fight against Diaz. Pierce is a good, tough, and underrated welterweight. He put in a good performance against Jon Fitch. However, in terms of overall skills, in terms of MMA wrestling, grappling, striking, and submissions I still got to give the edge to Koscheck. Not that Pierce couldn't get the upset if he gets Koscheck off his game and takes the fight where he wants it, but I think Koscheck will take this just based on looking at who Pierce has fought and lost to in the UFC. Koscheck will be the bigger and stronger wrestler in the cage. And if Fitch can grind out Pierce, I have a feeling Koscheck will as well.

Winner: Josh Koscheck, TKO, Round 2

Alex Watt: Mike Pierce is a tough welterweight contender with decent striking. However, his bread and butter is wrestling and it is the style he tends to fall back on when he fights in the UFC. The only problem is, he tends to lose to more talented wrestlers and Josh Koscheck is just that. Kos is also a better striker than Pierce and has that mean overhand right. I simply cannot foresee Pierce being able to take Koscheck down (not when GSP, the best wrestler in the division, struggled to do it) and so the only way he can win is if he knocks Koscheck out. Which is unlikely.

Winner: Josh Koscheck, TKO, Round 2

Dan Plunkett: I believe Koscheck's intent in this fight is to throw bombs until something lands. Maybe that will work, because we really haven't seen how good Pierce's chin is and Koscheck hits hard, but Pierce may try to negate that by fighting in closer to use his wrestling. Based on credentials, Koscheck should be the better wrestler, but he's further removed from his wrestling days than Pierce and in the past has admitted to focusing little on sharpening his wrestling skills. However, his past two fights were against wrestlers, so I'm sure he's focused on it a bit more of late. If Pierce isn't able to take Koscheck down, or at least hold him against the fence, he'll need to find an opening in Koscheck's striking. For a good and experienced striker, that isn't a very difficult task as Koscheck's slugging style leaves holes to be taken advantage of, but I don't see Pierce as that guy.

Winner: Koscheck, TKO, Round 2.

The staff picks Josh Koscheck, 7-0.

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Heavyweight Bout: Fabricio Werdum vs. Roy Nelson

Jonathan Solomon: "I am well mentally, as well as physically, much faster and this will be determinant in this fight, due to the fact that he's slower, a fatty." Fabricio Werdum said that when talking about this fight this week. Does anything else need to be said? Well, Werdum is correct in that Nelson is a "fatty." However, he's as athletic a "fatty" as there is in MMA (perhaps ever for that matter). So I would hope the Fedor Killer is not underestimating him based on his body shape. The fact is this is a pretty even match-up between a pair of tremendous grapplers who can also strike with effectiveness. Werdum fought Alistair Overeem in June and it was a terrible fight because Overeem was scared to engage the Brazilian on the ground. You won't have to worry about that here. Not that Nelson will jump at the chance to enter Werdum's guard, but if the fight should end up in that position, I do not see Nelson clawing for a way out. On the feet, Nelson has knockout power while Werdum is hardly known for that quality. Assuming the ground game cancels itself out, I have to give the striking edge to Nelson, even if he may be a "fatty."

Winner: Roy Nelson, Decision

Jon Butterfield: Okay, I get why people would pick Nelson, especially by KO, but Werdum is too smart to get caught in a gunfight with someone as obviously heavy-handed as Nelson. Then again, it won't be easy for Werdum to take ‘Big Country' down, but I have a hunch that Nelson (and his fans) will falsely assume he has the jiu-jitsu chops to match (or at least defend against) ‘Vai Cavalo'. He doesn't, and you can bet your (fat) ass that's a game Roy should avoid like the plague. Roy may have never been submitted, but Mir aside (who didn't really grapple with him, mainly because he didn't need to), who has he really fought with a top, top level ground game? I can't think of anyone, although Monson will stand out to some – and you know what, he BEAT Roy as well. The bottom line here is, I expect Nelson to be goaded into a grappling affair and he'll find himself submitted for the first time. If he doesn't go for the ground game, well, he's got the power to hurt Werdum, but that side, I think he's overmatched here. He didn't connect with Mir's chin, and I don't think he'll find Werdum's either. There's only one man that ever DID connect with Werdum's jaw, and that's JDS. Enough said.

Winner: Fabricio Werdum, Submission, Round Two

Robert Winfree: And the obligatory heavyweight fight finds its way into the co-main event for the card. This is Werdum's return to the UFC after getting KO'd so hard his ears wiggled against a debuting Junior dos Santos. Werdum might have the best pure submission game in MMA as far as heavyweights go, but he's sorely lacking in every other aspect. Roy Nelson has power in his hands and is an accomplished grappler in his own right. Nelson also has an incredible chin and wont cover up like Overeem did and fire back one shot, he'll move forward and throw combinations. Nelson also wont hesitate to go to the ground with Werdum, he probably wont jump into the Brazilians guard, but if he gets the opportunity to get into half guard or side control he'll take it. I'm also interested to see what shape Nelson shows up in, if he's continued to drop some excess weight or not.

Winner: Roy Nelson, TKO Round 2

Wyatt Beougher: As good as Werdum is on the ground, I think Nelson is smart enough to keep the fight standing if he feels like he's overmatched on the ground. On the feet, Nelson may not be able to put Werdum away; however, he's certainly got enough of an advantage to outpoint Werdum and pick up the decision win. And while Werdum would certainly like another shot at JDS, the man who knocked him out of both his number one contendership and the UFC, I think Big Country wins this one, especially if he comes in having lost even more weight than his last fight.

Winner: Roy Nelson, Decision

Jeffrey Harris: Werdum makes a long awaited return to the UFC after his last fight there over three years ago when he was knocked out by Junior dos Santos. Werdum's bread and butter is his grappling. Nelson's strong suits are his chin and his brawling style. Nelson is also a decorated grappler as well, though nowhere near the level of Werdum. I think Werdum should win this fight provided he's learned his lessons from the rematch with Overeem last year and he's coming in better shape. Werdum is the better grappler so I think he should be able to take down and out-grapple Nelson on the ground not unlike the fight between Frank Mir and Nelson even with Nelson having shed some weight. Werdum wins in his UFC return.

Winner: Fabricio Werdum, Decision

Alex Watt: This an interesting fight between two Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belts. On the ground this could turn into a very interesting grappling showcase. However, if it does go to the ground then you would have to favour Werdum as his BJJ is some of the best in all of MMA. Still, "Big Country" should be able to hold his own and defend any submission attempts from "Vai Cavalo". On the feet, Nelson has to be favoured. Werdum has decent striking and was able to hold his own against Overeem when they actually, you know, fought. However, Nelson should have the better boxing overall and he is in possession of a heavy right hand which has knocked out many a fighter. This could come down to whether Werdum can get the fight to the ground or whether Nelson can keep the fight standing. I favour "Big Country" to defend the takedowns and score the knockout.

Winner: Roy Nelson, TKO, Round 3

Dan Plunkett: It's a term used far too often, but Fabricio Werdum is truly a world class grappler. Roy Nelson is a very good grappler, but Werdum will have the advantage if the fight hits the floor. However, Nelson is a solid wrestler with knockout power in his right hand, making this a very tough fight for Werdum and a tough fight to pick. Werdum's stand-up isn't bad, but his punches aren't as big of a threat to end the fight as Nelson's. Don't be surprised if we see Werdum feign being hurt and drop to his back after getting hit – and you shouldn't be surprised because it's a tactic he's been employing far too often so anybody knocking him down shouldn't believe he's hurt (unless Junior dos Santos is the puncher). If Werdum can make this his fight and get to the ground, there's no doubt he can win. But I think he has a very hard time doing that and comes up short.

Winner: Nelson, Decision.

The staff picks Roy Nelson, 5-2.

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UFC Interim Welterweight Championship Bout: Nick Diaz vs. Carlos Condit

Jonathan Solomon: Legitimately, I think this is as close to a 50/50 fight as you can have in the main event. Both men are aggressive strikers and since they almost enjoy getting into a scrap, I see someone getting the bad end of it. Condit has never been knocked out but he has been submitted three times in his career. Diaz lost by knockout in his fifth professional fight almost a decade ago and of course, lost to K.J. Noons due to cuts. He had noodles for legs in the Paul Daley fight before he ended up blasting the Brit with a fight ending punch. With that said, you may even give a slight advantage to Condit who has proven to have a damn good chin over the years. Grappling wise, I'm not sure that Condit will look to shoot for takedowns and if he does, Diaz should be able to defend them. He's an incredibly difficult fighter to take down and then keep on his back. So if this is a striking battle, can you IMAGINE these two men going back and forth for 25-minutes? Magic! It's tough to pick against Diaz right now because he's looked so dominant and while Condit has looked mighty good himself, consider this a vote for GSP vs. DIAZ.

Winner: blah blah interim championsip -- Nick Diaz, Decision

Jon Butterfield: It wasn't that long ago that people were saying GSP had cleaned out his division – well, step up Nick Diaz, Carlos Condit, Jake Ellenberger and Johny Hendricks, and I think you'll find there's still a ton of work to be done! Still, at least GSP is likely to avoid one of these two killers for the time being, but the question is: which one? Both these guys are exceptionally talented stand up fighters, both have plenty of ability on the deck, and both have left a trail of badly-beaten opponents in their wake. For Condit, he is, as his nickname suggests, a ‘Natural Born Killer'. He finishes fights, and normally does so in a completely unpredictable manner. For Diaz, he's less of a finisher, but you could argue his opponents usually end up looking even worse than Condit's. Why? Because he lays down three or five round beatings that at times are unbearable to watch. People criticised Diaz for not fighting the best of the best, and that's how they explained the beat downs away, but now that he's in the UFC, he's proving that the time spent in the shooting gallery was well, well worth it.

So, who wins? Well, personally I think Diaz is better than Condit pretty much all over – and he's got the chin to take those heavy blows Carlos will throw at him (if he hits him). I wouldn't expect Condit to crack, or to gas, but I think when this gets to the fourth and fifth round, you're going to be looking at a Carlos Condit who looks no better off than Penn did in Diaz's UFC return. He's going to be hit by a relentless onslaught of tight, technical MMA striking that will pepper his face, head and body, and I can't see him making it through the fog any better than anyone else. I do believe there are people out there who can beat Diaz, but I don't think Carlos is that man. Unless he gets finished by something crazy and unexpected (quite possible), I think GSP gets the opponent he really wants.

Winner: Nick Diaz, Decision

Robert Winfree: The big one, the two best welterweights not named Georges St. Pierre fighting for the interim title. This is a lot closer to a 50/50 fight than most people are saying. Nick Diaz has good punches, but is very flat footed and hittable when striking and relies on his recovery powers to compensate. On the ground he's a very talented submission artist, and he's earned his status among the elite of the welterweight division. Carlos Condit has the more diverse striking attack as he uses kicks and knees very effectively and is no slouch on the ground either. Condit has gone the distance only twice in his entire career, which is a very telling stat about how he likes to fight. Diaz likes to back his opponents against the cage and unload to the body or strike with punches from distance. Condit wont be backed up regularly and should be using leg kicks to hobble Diaz when they're striking. The Condit will have better wrestling than Diaz, but the question is if he'll choose to use it. Diaz has an active guard so a traditional double leg probably wont be something Diaz is regularly looking for. I know most people are picking Diaz, and they have plenty of reason to, but I think I'm going with Condit. If he hurts Diaz at all he'll swarm him, he wont be afraid to fight on the ground if it's advantageous to him, and he'll use leg kicks from the outside to hobble Diaz's movement.

Winner: Carlos Condit, TKO Round 4

Wyatt Beougher: I have to agree with Robert here - I like Condit in this one, both for his ability to use kicks to keep Diaz and his "punches in bunches" at bay and for his chin, which should stand up to any punches that Diaz does manage to connect with. Add in the fact that Diaz is very hittable, that he was rocked by Paul Daley before knocking Daley out, and that Condit isn't going to gas like BJ Penn did, and I think you have all the makings of an upset in this fight. Diaz certainly does have the tools to win, and if he can control the Octagon and keep Condit backed against the cage, then he can certainly win this fight, but I look for Condit to push the pace and wear Diaz down before putting him away in the championship rounds.

Winner: Carlos Condit, TKO, Round 5

Jeffrey Harris: I think this is going to be an overall war of attrition. And in that, I'm giving the edge to Nick Diaz. While Diaz generally lacks pure one punch knockout power, his striking and boxing skills are incredibly slick and a great equalizer in his MMA fighters. BJ Penn has never been beaten up in a fight like he was in his fight with Nick Diaz. Diaz I believe will have the edge with his ridiculous cardio and stamina. I think his two main weaknesses are with leg kicks and takedowns, but even off his back, Diaz is still incredibly dangerous. Diaz is also not to mention extremely tough and hard to finish. Condit is also tough and a really strong, dynamic stronger. But ultimately I think Diaz's pace and volume will win him the day.

Winner: New UFC Interim Welterweight Champion, Nick Diaz, Decision

Alex Watt: As always, check out my in-depth breakdown of the main event in today's edition of Thoughts From Across The Pond on the main page. Here is my conclusion from that brilliant article:

So, to conclude, who do I favour in this fight? On the feet this contest is very evenly matched. If Condit can maintain his range and use his kicks and knees then he has the potential to pick Diaz apart. However, if Diaz can move in close using his constant forward movement, keep the pressure on Condit and use his numerous punching combinations to wear down his opponent then he could dominate this fight. On the ground, this contest is also fairly evenly matched but you have to favour the Cesar Gracie black belt, Diaz. Even if Condit is able to secure top position and attack with his quality ground and pound, Diaz's BJJ from the guard is of such a high quality that I would expect him to always threaten with submissions and sweeps. This is a fight which could go either way but personally I favour Nick Diaz. The Californian, with his high pressure style and unending cardio, has a habit of forcing his opponent to fight his style of fight. Because of this, I see Diaz pressuring Condit for the first three rounds and picking him apart with his brilliant boxing. In the fourth round, "The Natural Born Killer" exhausted from Diaz's pressure will take the fight to the floor and Diaz's world class BJJ will come to the forefront. I'm picking Diaz by fourth round submission in an early Fight of the Year contender.

Winner: Nick Diaz, Submission, Round 4

Dan Plunkett: Let's consider some things here: Diaz is the single most active fighter in the sport and Condit is up there too. Diaz is also, in my estimation, the single most consistently exciting fighter in the world at the moment, and Condit is up there as well. Diaz is probably also the best conditioned fighter in the sport, and while Condit has tired in the past, tiring has never seemed to make him relent in his attack. Now, I'm not usually Joe Rogan going out calling fights "the fight of the century" before they happen, but I legitimately think this fight has a relatively strong chance of an all-time great. I can't even envision a scenario in which this fight turns out to be bad. Now we can get to the fight breakdown. Condit is a more diverse striker, while Diaz tends to stick to boxing. I don't necessarily think that's an edge in Condit's favor just because to this point nobody has found an answer to Diaz's striking attack. Condit does seem to have more knockout power, but he was never seen as a one-strike knockout guy until he beat Dan Hardy in late-2010. Neither fighter has ever shown strong wrestling ability, though Diaz has shown improvement in that area. On the ground, Condit is very good, but Diaz is better. This is a fight that really could go either way as both guys have legitimate paths to victory, but I think Diaz's path is just a little bit more direct. Plus, rumor has it he goes full contact four times a week; he just doesn't go around telling everyone about it.

Winner: Nick Diaz, TKO, Round 5.

The staff picks Nick Diaz, 5-2.

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