The Blueprint 2.09.12: Dream Warriors
Posted by Patrick Mullin on 02.09.2012
The UFC will have its first exclusive FUEL TV card headlined with a welterweight showdown. In one corner stands Diego "The Dream" Sanchez looking to re-establish himself as a top welterweight contender. In the other corner is Jake "The Juggernaut" Ellenberger looking to keep his momentum going after a career best win over Jake Shields. What happens when the irresistable force meets the immovable object? Find out right here in The Blueprint.
Welcome back friends, fans, and welcome first timers. This is The Blueprint where we tell you what two opposing fighters have to do in order to win their bout, and in the end tell you who comes out on top. Now we departed from our traditional format last week in order to tell you how exactly I'd train Carlos Condit to beat Nick Diaz. We wrapped it with my assertion that I would really train Condit's legs to be his best friends so that he would be able to effectively work leg kicks throughout the bout and be able to move evasively with success through all five rounds. Well wouldn't you just know that's EXACTLY how Condit won the fight. This week we're back to our usual of breaking down two opponents on a collision course in the octagon and the essential tactics for victory.
Since returning to the welterweight division Diego Sanchez has beaten Paulo Thiago and Martin Kampmann in successive Fight of the Night efforts. Sanchez has gone back to his ways as a relentless wrestler out of the Greg Jackson camp and another big victory could put him into title contention. Jake Ellenberger has been on a tear since a highly controversial loss to Carlos Condit in his UFC debut. Ellenberger has reeled off five straight victories in the octagon punctuated by an upset knockout victory over former multi-division champion Jake Shields. Ellenberger can ill afford a loss when on the best run of his career. We'll begin our look with "The Juggernaut".
Jake "The Juggernaut" Ellenberger Height: 5'10 Reach: 73 inches Record: 26 Wins(17 KO, 5 Submission, 4 Decision) 5 Losses(1 Submission, 4 Decision) Years Pro: 7 Years
Jake Ellenberger's Keys to Victory
1) Slow and Steady Wins the Race - If you've ever seen a Diego Sanchez fight, his plan of attack really never changes. He's going to come out at you throwing a plethora of strikes to back you up against the cage and then take you down and beat you up. A lot of the success he has with this strategy comes from opponents trying to meet him head on and match him blow for blow. We saw Clay Guida attempt this and it got him battered unmercifully in the first round of the fight. The right way to counteract this is simply to stay calm, move away laterally rather than back straight up, and force Diego to chase you.
We've seen Ellenberger tire late in fights and it wound up costing him the decision in the Condit bout. Sanchez loves to push the pace and Jake can't get caught up playing that game. He needs to conserve his energy and fight smart. Diego is generally always going to be more active than his opposition so trying to match him in output is a fool's game. By making Diego waste energy by chasing you around you'll not only keep your cardio in check and wear him down, you'll also frustrate him by not meeting him head on and Diego has lots of trouble with evasive opponents. That leads us to...
2) Jab and Circle Right - You're probably looking at me as if I'm crazy. Diego Sanchez is a southpaw and generally you want to avoid circling right against southpaws. Why you ask? Because when you circle right against a southpaw you're circling towards their power hand, the left hand, and thus putting yourself at a greater risk of being hit with it than if you were to circle to your left. However I don't see Diego Sanchez as a great threat with his left hand.
Generally Diego does most of his striking work with his right hand. He carries it very low and usually has it cocked to throw a lead uppercut, his favorite strike, and follows it usually with maybe one left hand and a plethora of follow up right uppercuts and right hooks. Now by circling right you're not only staying away from Diego's dangerous hand but you're also keeping your lead leg further away from Diego's left hand making takedowns harder to come by for him. If Diego Sanchez cannot take you down, it's a very uphill battle for him to win a fight.
By complimenting this movement with a stiff and authoritative jab the threat of a takedown is further depleted due to forcing Diego's upper body backward and taking him out of proper position to shoot for a leg. The jab will also keep him at bay from clinching and being able to score a trip takedown or one of his famous slams. Diego does not move his head well and becomes a sitting target for follow up offense behind the jab. This is why B.J. Penn was able to easily shut Diego out. Consistently landing his jab and moving away from Diego's effective hand stifled all of his offense and made him desperate, creating offensive openings for Penn to surgically pick him apart.
3) Set up the Knee Strikes - In his last bout Ellenberger scored the biggest win of his career by putting Jake Shields to sleep via a wicked knee combination from the plum grip. Ellenberger throws generally every strike in his arsenal with bad intentions looking to take his opponent out. Those bad intentions are how he's been able to knock out 17 of his opponents in 25 victories. However the majority of those knockouts have come via Jake's fists and he's shown evolution in his striking by adding some good Muay Thai fundamentals.
He should make the most of his newfound weapons. If he can successfully keep Diego Sanchez at a distance via key to victory number two as seen above, this will set up desperate lunge takedown attempts from Diego. Sanchez will have to open himself up and shoot from very far out which will give Ellenberger ample time to prepare adequately. He'll be able to see Diego coming and properly judge the shot to either sprawl and brawl, or circle away at enough of an angle to take control of Diego via the plum grip and throw those devastating knee strikes.
Jake Ellenberger's Perfect Strategy - With the anticipated fast start from Sanchez coming, Jake will make himself an elusive target via lateral movement while keeping Diego at the end of his jab and scoring points. Ellenberger has a good wrestling base and will use it to negate any close quarters takedown attempts by widening his base and using his Muay Thai to take control of Diego to land knees in close and force Diego to back away and establish critical distance. This will allow Ellenberger to dictate the pace of the fight and force Sanchez to take wild and unsuccessful chances leading to counterstrikes from Ellenberger through each round of the fight and enough to take home a decision.
Diego "The Dream" Sanchez Height: 5'10 Reach: 72 inches Record: 23 Wins (6 KO, 9 Submission, 8 Decision) 4 Losses (1 KO, 3 Decision) Years Pro:: 10 Years
Diego Sanchez's Keys to Victory
1) Force Ellenberger to Work - If there is one major advantage Diego holds over Jake Ellenberger in this fight its a distinct stamina advantage. In his last two bouts we've seen Diego finish very strong and aggressively to secure the wins via decision. In Jake's only octagon defeat against Carlos Condit he ran out of gas in the fight and Condit finished stronger to take the nod on the scorecards. So for Diego Sanchez point one of the strategy for this fight is simple, give Jake Ellenberger NO quarter. Diego Sanchez believes in himself more than seemingly any fighter and this confidence allows him to perform feats of stamina and heart most guys cannot match.
We've seen Diego break guys just via relentless aggression and an opponent with questionable conditioning is a prime target for that style of offense. Even if Ellenberger has some degree of success countering, it's a case of winning a battle to win a war. I don't think he's enough of a heavy hitter to knock out Diego and he's not a superior grappler by any means. Eventually he can be worn down and this is the way to do it, by forcing him to be active when he doesn't want to be.
2) Back to Basics - In addition to his seemingly endless stamina, one of the reasons Diego has had such success as of late is that he's gone back to what helped propel him to wins over the likes of Nick Diaz, Kenny Florian, and Karo Parisyan. Diego has once again gone into fights looking to bring his opponent to the mat and beat them up. He seems to understand that despite the fact that he loves to trade punches, his best bet to win fights is to take his opponent down and pound them unmercifully.
While Jake Ellenberger is a wrestler and possesses a purple belt in jiu jitsu, he can be outwrestled. Rick Story was the last good wrestler that Ellenberger was forced to grapple with and at the end of their bout it was Story who had his hand raised in victory. Diego is just as good a wrestler as Story is and could very well be able to put Ellenberger on his back and keep him there for as long as this fight lasts. If you cannot keep Diego Sanchez off of you then you cannot win the fight.
3) Smother Offensive Opportunities - Since part of what Diego needs to avoid are the heavy hands and knees of Jake Ellenberger and he'll be looking to take Ellenberger down, Diego would be well advised to clinch and force Ellenberger against the fence. Now while this does allow Diego to attempt takedowns by having Ellenberger stationary, it also eliminates necessary room for Ellenberger to throw effective strikes. When there is no fear of strikes coming back at you it gives you the confidence to attempt whatever you'd like to try. Jake is not likely to outwrestle Diego and smothering his strikes will prevent him from scoring points while allowing you to take octagon control points in the eyes of the judges.
Diego Sanchez's Perfect Strategy: Diego must immediately storm out at Ellenberger mixing up punches and kicks to set up a takedown. If he can't get a good shot immediately, then force Jake up against the cage and impose his animalistic will on him by forcing Jake on the defensive and just trying to survive the onslaught. While clinching Diego should work hard knees to the body to help empty Jake's gas tank prematurely and eventually the takedowns will be easier to secure and from there Diego can pound away until his hands break.
Final Prediction - This is a fight neither man can really afford to lose at this point. Ellenberger is really one win away from a title shot after his upset victory over Jake Shields, and a loss here derails all of the momentum he's built. In the case of Diego Sanchez a win over Ellenberger really legitimizes him as a top 5 welterweight contender and puts him in the position Ellenberger is currently in with being one win away from a title fight. I've seen Diego Sanchez take more damage in fights than his opponent, but Diego winds up winning because of his impressive looking slams and aggression, even if its not effective. I think that unless Sanchez is totally ineffective with his offense this is what's likely to happen here as he's very tough to get rid of and he tends to always finish a fight stronger than his opponent.
Winner: Diego Sanchez via controversial split decision
