Thoughts From Across The Pond 02.10.12: Throwing 'Spinning S***' For Over a Year Now

Posted by Alex Watt on 02.10.2012

Can Diego Sanchez walk out of UFC on FUEL 1 a winner or will Jake Ellenberger be victorious? 411's Alex Watt takes a look! Plus thoughts on the fall out from Carlos Condit's win over Nick Diaz at UFC 143 and more!



Thanks to the fantastic TEK_Designs for my lovely banner.

EDIT: On Thursday evening, after I had finished writing this week's column it was announced by the NSAC that Nick Diaz has failed his post-fight drugs test for his UFC 143 contest with Carlos Condit. Diaz tested positive for marijuana metabolites for the second time in his career. His previous failure, following his fight against Takanori Gomi at PRIDE 33, resulted in a six month ban for the Californian and it is highly possible that he will receive an even more extensive ban this time around (a ban of up to a year is being reported) since it is his second offence in Nevada. Obviously this brings the talk of a rematch with Carlos Condit to an abrupt halt. What does this mean for Diaz and his future in MMA? I'll take a closer look at this issue and the fallout from it in next week's column.

Controversy At UFC 143?

"I'm not gonna accept the fact that this is a loss. I've lost fights before, where -- I'm not gonna accept that either, that ain't right. I pushed him back the whole fight. I walked him down, I got the takedown. I'm the guy who won on top. Had I thought I wasn't ahead I probably should have finished that armlock. Carlos is a great guy, I'm happy for him and his family. I think I'm done with this MMA. It's been great out here; I've had a good career, you guys have paid me way too much, but I don't think I'm going to get enough to keep going in this. It's been a good time. Cesar Gracie jiu jitsu. Good job Carlos." - Nick Diaz

In the main event of UFC 143 Carlos Condit defeated Nick Diaz in a close contest to capture the UFC Interim Welterweight Championship. The judges scored the fight 49-46, 48-47 and 49-46 all in favour of "The Natural Born Killer". In the end, the fight was not the back and forth barnburner that many fans were hoping for but it was still a compelling fight from start to finish.

Carlos Condit fought, arguably, the most intelligent and disciplined fight of his entire career as he aimed to avoid getting drawn into Diaz's style of fight. Nick Diaz looked frustrated that he was unable to fight his fight; he constantly taunted Condit and even slapped "The Natural Born Killer" at one point in an attempt to goad Condit into standing in the pocket with him and exchanging punches. Condit though never took the bait and succeeded, for the most part, in staying on the outside and picking Diaz apart from a distance with his kicks.

Throughout the fight Diaz constantly moved forward and looked to pressure Condit and land his trademark combinations. Condit though used his footwork brilliantly and, with a couple of momentary exceptions, was able to prevent himself from getting caught with his back against the fence and allowing Diaz to land punches in that position. Whenever he found himself with his back against the cage, "The Natural Born Killer" would circle away and bring the fight back to the centre of the Octagon and continue to pick Diaz apart using leg kicks and different combinations.

As previously noted the fight was very close. Rounds 1 and 2 could have gone either way as both fighters landed significant strikes. Rounds 3 and 4 were far more clear cut as Condit began to settle into his rhythm and picked Diaz apart using leg kicks and combinations. The final round began with Condit winning the striking battle but concluded with Diaz dragging Condit to the mat and controlling his back. Round 5 then, could also have gone either way depending on which the viewer favoured more in that round; the striking or the grappling. On first viewing I scored the fight 48-47 in favour of Condit; I felt Diaz won rounds 2 and 5, and Condit won rounds 1, 3 and 4. Nevertheless, it is not surprising that some felt Diaz won the fight 48-47 since rounds 1,2 and 5 were so close and Diaz could have been seen to edge those stanzas.



Nevertheless, the outcry following the decision has been almost unparalleled in the history of the UFC. Fans of the 209-er have pointed out that it was Diaz who was pressing forward the whole fight and Condit was always moving backwards or "running away". This, however, is a blinkered and misguided view since what Condit was using was effective movement and counter-striking and in terms of the much quoted "Octagon Control" it was Condit who was the more effective. After all, Condit kept the fight away from the fence (where Diaz wanted it) and constantly circled back to the centre of the Octagon to where he wanted it; thus, controlling where the fight took place. In addition, he was the more effective striker and although not as obviously aggressive in the fight as Diaz was, he was landing far more attacks than the Californian was.

In fact, when you look at the statistics from the fight, they support a Condit win. Accoring to Fight Metric, "The Natural Born Killer" landed more significant strikes of 151 to Diaz's 105 and more total strikes with 159 to Diaz's 117. In addition, Condit landed a UFC record 68 leg kicks throughout the fight which was one of his keys to winning, since (as I noted in my pre-fight breakdown last week) Diaz never checks leg kicks effectively.

Whilst Diaz is clearly frustrated at seeing another close fight being judged against him, he and his team also need to accept that Diaz got his strategy wrong in this fight. As a high level Cesar Gracie BJJ black belt Diaz, or his corner-men, should have recognised that after a third round in which Condit began to pick Diaz apart on the feet that the Californian should have aimed to take the fight to the ground. After all, when Diaz finally took the fight to the ground in the last minutes of the fifth round, he immediately took Condit's back and came close to finishing the fight. Although Condit was able to fight off Diaz's submission attempts on that occasion, it could be argued that had Diaz used his BJJ skills earlier in the fight that he could have controlled the fight, won more rounds decisively and perhaps even finished the fight. As it was, Diaz continued to instigate a boxing fight despite finding limited success due to the highly effective nature of Condit's counter-striking.

Despite the win being the biggest of Carlos Condit's career, the spotlight once again fell on the ever fascinating Nick Diaz. Immediately following the judges' decision, Diaz expressed his annoyance at the decision and then claimed that he was retiring from Mixed Martial Arts. Whether this supposed retirement will actually come to pass or whether it is simply an emotional response from Diaz which needs to be taken with a pinch of salt remains to be seen. Diaz has toyed with the idea of moving into Boxing before but was persuaded away from that career path with the promise of a UFC title shot against Georges St. Pierre. Since then Diaz has seen his popularity amongst the MMA fan-base rise tremendously, due in part to his volatile personality and the great job that the UFC have done in marketing him, particularly on the UFC Primetime series. This was never more clear than this past weekend when Diaz received the lion's share of the cheers at the weigh-ins and on fight night ahead of family man and all-round nice guy Carlos Condit. Just months ago, such a scenario would have been considered unthinkable. What is clear, is that the UFC have stumbled across a star in Nick Diaz and they simply cannot afford to lose him now, particularly when Brock Lesnar has just walked away from the sport, GSP is injured, BJ Penn is considering retirement and the old guard of Couture, Liddell and Ortiz have retired (or is one fight away from retiring in the case of Ortiz).



Because of this need to keep Diaz around, plus with the furore following the outcome of the fight, signs seemed to point towards the UFC booking an immediate rematch between Condit and Diaz, with the main event slot of UFC on FOX 4 looking as though it would be the most likely slot for this fight to fill. On Wednesday, Dana White confirmed via twitter that Condit and his team had accepted a rematch with Diaz. Indeed, the word was that Condit would be meeting with Dana and the UFC today (Friday) to discuss terms and sign the contract. However, at press time, it is still uncertain as to what the status of the rematch is. Cesar Gracie told ESPN.com; "Yeah, I said that (there will be no rematch). But that's all I can say. I can't say anything else. I can't do anything. Quote that if you want to. There is not going to be a rematch. Other than that, that's all I can say." Does this mean that Diaz is serious about retirement or could there be something more sinister at work here? (Keith Kizer of the NSAC has confirmed that at least one fighter on the UFC 143 card has failed a drugs test and there are rumours circulating that it could be Diaz).

Still, if the UFC can make the rematch then you would fully expect them to do just that. After all, the fight was close enough to warrant an immediate rematch and the UFC are running so many events in 2012 that another genuinely compelling main event is very much needed for the company. Nevertheless, you have to question just how much of the UFC's desire to rematch Condit and Diaz immediately has to do with a) the reaction of Diaz's strong and passionate fanbase, and b) the UFC potentially losing out on the big money fight of St. Pierre Vs. Diaz. After all, GSP himself has pointed out that it is Diaz whom he wants to fight next and the UFC have directed much of their publicity towards that potential match-up, including on the recent UFC Primetime. Condit, despite being a phenomenal fighter, is not as well known amongst the "causal fans" and despite being an intelligent, committed family man, he is not as compelling a character as the unpredictable and volatile Diaz.

Despite all of those factors though, many will ultimately have to concede that a Condit-Diaz rematch actually does make the most sense for everyone involved right now. It is a risky move for Condit as if he loses, he loses out on his shot against GSP, but it also gives "The Natural Born Killer" a chance to cement his superiority over Diaz with an even more dominant performance and face St. Pierre with more momentum behind him. Plus, without this fight in the interim it is likely that Condit would have to sit out and wait for his fight with St. Pierre until the end of the year, since the other main welterweight contenders are either tied up with other opponents or need another fight or two before they can realistically challenge for the (interim) title. It is also likely that Condit will earn a substantially larger sum of money for this second fight than he did for the first.

For Diaz, it gives him the chance to avenge this controversial loss and earn the showdown with Georges St. Pierre which he so desperately craves. And, for the UFC, it allows them to hold onto their surprise new star and work towards the big money title unification bout that they desire. Would this fight have been offered to Condit if the decision had gone in Diaz's favour? I doubt it. But that is the nature of the fight game; it is, at the end of the day, all about making money.

The big question now is; will Diaz accept the rematch or is he really done with MMA for good? I suppose we'll find out over the coming weeks.

---

Elsewhere at UFC 143…

Fabricio Werdum defeated Roy Nelson via unanimous decision in a thrilling contest which took the official Fight of the Night honours. Werdum looked fantastic in this UFC return dominating the stand-up exchanges with improved striking, particularly in the clinch when he landed some of the best Muay Thai knees to the head seen inside the Octagon in some time. It is to the iron chinned "Big Country"'s credit that he even remained conscious in the first round when "Vai Cavalo" consistently slammed his knees into Nelson's face.

Roy Nelson unfortunately couldn't really find a way to get himself back into this fight and was largely picked apart by Werdum, whilst he relied on his ridiculous durability (which may well be the best in the entire sport) to survive until the end of the fight. Dana White has cast doubt over Nelson's future in the UFC since this fight, implying that he may be cut. If that does transpire though, it would be very harsh in this writer's opinion. After all, Nelson has only lost to top competition inside the Octagon (Werdum, Mir, Dos Santos) and despite his physique, which he is improving on, he has proven to be a genuine force at heavyweight with wins over Mirko Cro Cop, Stefan Struve and Brendan Schaub. In this case, I think Dana White needs to put his personal feelings for "Big Country" aside and accept that Nelson deserves to be on the roster far more than other fighters I could name.

As for Werdum, he looked phenomenal here. With such an impressive performance in a division which remains thin on challengers, it is not a stretch to suggest that one more fight against a top opponent could see him in UFC title contention. The main name which is being discussed at the moment is a No. 1 contender's showdown with former champ Frank Mir, which would be a great match-up for the UFC to make; two top contenders who are supremely talented BJJ black belts with ever improving striking. Also, the build up would be entertaining too I'd bet since Frank Mir always has some choice words for his opponent and Werdum showed a level of personality and charisma we had never seen from him before at the post-UFC 143 press conference. I mean, just look at the man's happy face:



Renan Barao continued his incredible run with the 28th consecutive win of his career, and third in a row in the UFC. It wasn't as dominant a performance or as exciting a fight as many expected, but he was able to defend all of Scott Jorgensen's takedown attempts and pick him apart on the feet using his superior striking. It is likely that Barao will need one more fight before he challenges for the UFC Bantamweight Championship since Dominick Cruz and Urijah Faber will be tied up until the summer filming the latest season of The Ultimate Fighter. A former 135lbs champ like Brian Bowles or Miguel Torres would be a perfect next opponent for the Brazilian.

---

Video Interlude

Some interesting interviews here with UFC Middleweight Champion Anderson Silva, Strikeforce Women's Bantamweight Champion Miesha Tate and UFC Welterweight Champion Georges St. Pierre:

---

UFC on FUEL TV 1

Next week the UFC present their first mid-week show of 2012 and their inaugural non-prelims show on FUEL TV. On paper, the card as a whole is not the most inspiring affair but it is headlined by a fight which could be a very entertaining affair and one which holds implications for the 170lbs division.

Jake Ellenberger (26-5) is on a very impressive UFC win streak of five in a row, all over tough opponents, with his only loss inside the Octagon coming to current UFC Interim Welterweight champ Carlos Condit via a controversial split decision. A win over Sanchez would solidify Ellenberger's status as one of the top contenders in the division and, should the Condit-Diaz rematch fall through, could see him challenge for that interim belt whilst the UFC awaits Georges St. Pierre's return from injury.

Diego Sanchez (23-4) is returning to the Octagon following an absence of almost an entire year due to injuries. The winner of the inaugural season of The Ultimate Fighter, Sanchez is a true UFC veteran and has faced some of the top fighters in the company at both 170lbs and 155lbs. He has been hot and cold in recent fights going 2-2 and a win over the explosive Ellenberger would be a fantastic way to get himself back on track and back in the mix for a title shot. He may well have to call on all of his experience to be victorious here though.

Ellenberger is a world class wrestler and is usually able to take his opponents down, hold them there and work them over using ground and pound. However, doing the same against Sanchez will be no easy feat. Diego's takedown defence is solid but it is in his scrambling ability where he excels. His fight against Nick Diaz from 2005 demonstrates how quick and active he is on the ground. However, there have been occasions too where "The Dream" has been taken down by a strong wrestler and held there; Jon Fitch and Josh Koscheck being the most notable examples.

It is possible then that Ellenberger will be able to find success in taking Sanchez down and holding him there as long as he keeps the pressure on Sanchez when he is on top and doesn't allow Sanchez to attack from his guard; Diego's elbows from his back are particularly vicious. Sanchez, despite having good offensive wrestling as witnessed in his dramatic slam of Paulo Thiago, will likely find himself unable to take powerful wrestler Ellenberger down.



Because of Sanchez's scrambling ability and Ellenberger's takedown defence, it is likely that much of the fight will take place on the feet. In a kickboxing battle, the two are very evenly matched. Ellenberger has demonstrated that he has serious knockout power on the feet with quick first round TKO wins over Sean Pierson and Jake Shields in his last two contests. The latter of those was highly impressive as he became the first man to knock out the durable Shields (the last challenger to Georges St. Pierre, remember) in over a decade. In fact, a remarkable 17 of Ellenberger's 26 wins come courtesy of TKO or doctor's stoppage. As such, he will clearly be a very real threat to Sanchez, a man who will often eat punches as he uses his constant forward movement to land his own strikes.

Sanchez has actually been rocked in 3 of his last 4 fights and although he was able to weather the storm in all of those fights, it shows that "The Dream" is very hittable. Nevertheless, it also shows the durability and determination of Sanchez to continue fighting and, despite a lot of long, ugly fights Sanchez has only one TKO loss on his record; a doctor's stoppage to BJ Penn in 2009 due to a horrific cut. Still, when Sanchez gets into his rhythm his kickboxing can yield some fantastic results, perhaps nowhere better demonstrated than in his picture perfect head kick against Clay Guida in their 2009 Fight of the Year which sent "The Carpenter" crashing to the mat.

As noted, Sanchez has a habit of dragging his opponents into long, fast-paced, bloody battles and the question is whether Ellenberger will be able to handle the pace and intensity of such a contest. That is not to say that Ellenberger has not been in long, intense battles himself (his UFC debut against Carlos Condit was one of the best fights of 2009), but will he be able to handle the constant, unyielding pressure which "The Dream" will bring to the Octagon?

This is actually a very tough fight to predict. Both men are very experienced and have great grappling and striking skills. Because of this, the fight has the potential to be a real back and forth battle which goes all over the Octagon. Ellenberger will be favoured, and rightly so, because of his recent successes in the Octagon. Nevertheless, Sanchez is one of the toughest fighters in the sport and will likely turn this fight into a war. I expect it to go all three rounds due to the skills and durability of both men and, as much as I can see a Sanchez upset win coming to fruition, I have to give the edge to Ellenberger to pull off the decision win.



The full 411 staff picks for this event will be up on the main page on Tuesday so be sure to check them out.

---

Quotes of the Week

"I think she was a detriment to women's MMA. I think that no little girl is going to watch Cris Cyborg fight and want to be like her one day. I don't think that she's a good example. I think it was obvious all along that she was doping and I think it's a really bad message to send to kids that you need to dope to be a champion. I think it's better with her gone and I think that when she comes back -- I plan on fighting her when she comes back and I plan on beating her when she comes back. I feel like that will be a good example. The only positive role that I think Cris Cyborg can play for women's MMA is as a bad guy Ivan Drago character that's going to get beat by a Rocky. . . . She earned her sentence, and when she's done, she can come back and get her real punishment." – Ronda Rousey continues her verbal assault on Cristiane Santos.

"Going back to the Diaz/Condit fight, my point about missing things, is I watched the fight at home and when I watched the fight at home, I had a slightly different opinion. When I watched it live I thought that Carlos Condit won it. In the fourth round I said that Condit was winning this fight and when I said that, I was a little bit out of school, because on the scorecards maybe necessarily he wasn't winning, in my head even, but, there was a trend in round three and four where Condit was scoring way more than Diaz was, that's why I was saying that Condit was winning that fight. The bottom line is when I watched it at home I gave Nick Diaz round one, round two and round five. At home when I watched it, I thought Nick Diaz won that fight." – Joe Rogan reassesses his view on the UFC 143 main event.

"Well one of the things, (was when) I threw a spinning back-fist or something and he said, ‘So we're throwing spinning s*** now?' And I kind of just -- I had to crack a smile at that one." – Carlos Condit discusses what Nick Diaz was saying to him during their fight.

"When I want your advice I'll beat it out of you, stupid. Now go back to singing to hamburgers and telling Seagal he's legit." - Chael Sonnen tweets his thoughts to Anderson Silva. Again.

---

Pound for Pound Rankings

Carlos Condit defeated No. 8 ranked fighter Nick Diaz this weekend, so the pound for pound rankings have seen some reshuffling this week. Carlos Condit jumps into the top 15 to occupy the No. 12 slot, while Nick Diaz drops off the list entirely. Indeed, despite his highly impressive win streak prior to the loss to Condit it was impossible to keep Diaz on the list ahead of other incredible fighters like "Shogun" Rua, Urijah Faber and Benson Henderson.



1. Anderson Silva (29-4)

2. Georges St. Pierre (22-2)

3. José Aldo (21-1)

4. Jon Jones (15-1)

5. Frankie Edgar (14-1-1)

6. Dominick Cruz (19-1)

7. Junior Dos Santos (14-1)

8. Rashad Evans (17-1-1)

9. Gilbert Melendez (20-2)

10. Joseph Benavidez (15-2)

11. Dan Henderson (29-8)

12. Carlos Condit (28-5)

13. "Shogun" Rua (20-6)

14. Urijah Faber (26-5)

15. Benson Henderson (15-2)

---

And that'll do it for another week.

I'll be back next week with my thoughts on UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez Vs. Ellenberger, a round-up of recent news from UK MMA and, hopefully, the status of Carlos Condit Vs. Nick Diaz II.

If you enjoy the column please do follow me on twitter (@AlexWattMMA).

Thanks for reading and if you have any comments or feedback please leave them below or message me on twitter. Cheers.