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411's MMA Roundtable Preview - UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Mousasi
Posted by Dan Plunkett on 02.14.2014





WELCOME:
Lyoto Machida battles Gegard Mousasi in the main event of UFC Fight Night on Saturday! In the co-main event, Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza faces Francis Carmont. At welterweight, Erick Silva fights Takenori Sato. Plus, Viscardi Andrade squares off with Nicholas Musoke, Charles Oliveira vs. Andy Ogle, and more!

THE STAFF:

  • From MMA's 3R's, Jeffrey Harris!

  • From Five Quick Rounds, Evan Zivin!

  • From the Locked in the Guillotine MMA News Report, Robert Winfree!

  • From The 411 MMA Top 10, Alex Rella!

  • From Forgotten Fights, Paul Lapointe!

  • From What's Next, Robert Practor!



    THE PRELIMINARY CARD:

    Prelims streamed on UFC Fight Pass.

    Featherweight Bout: Douglas Silva de Andrade vs. Zubair Tuhugov


    Jeffrey Harris: Silva de Andrade, Decision
    Evan Zivin: Douglas Silva de Andrade, TKO, Round 1
    Robert Winfree: Zubair Tuhugov, Decision
    Alex Rella: Andrade, Decision
    Paul Lapointe: (Russian) Tuhugov, TKO , RD3
    Robert Practor: Douglas Silva de Andrade, TKO, Round 1
    The staff picks Douglas Silva de Andrade, 4-2.

    Welterweight Bout: Ildemar Alcantara vs. Albert Tumenov


    Jeffrey Harris: Ildemar Alcantara, Submission, Round 1
    Evan Zivin: Ildemar Alcantara, Submission, Round 2
    Robert Winfree: Ildemar Alcantara, Submission Round 2
    Alex Rella: Alcantara, Decision
    Paul Lapointe: (Russian) Tumenov, Decision, RD3
    Robert Practor Albert Tumenov, TKO, Round 3
    The staff picks Ildemar Alcantara, 4-2.

    Featherweight Bout: Felipe Arantes vs. Maximo Blanco


    Jeffrey Harris: Maximo Blanco, TKO, Round 2
    Evan Zivin: Maximo Blanco, Decision
    Robert Winfree: Felipe Arantes, Disqualification Round 3
    Alex Rella: Blanco, TKO, Round 1
    Paul Lapointe: Arantes, Submission, RD2
    Robert Practor: Maximo Blanco, TKO, Round 2
    The staff picks Maximo Blanco, 4-2.

    Bantamweight Bout: Iuri Alcantara vs. Wilson Reis


    Jeffrey Harris: Wilson Reis, Decision
    Evan Zivin: Iuri Alcantara, Decision
    Robert Winfree: Iuri Alcantara, Decision
    Alex Rella: Alcantara, Decision
    Paul Lapointe: Reis, Decision, RD3
    Robert Practor: Iuri Alcantara, Decision
    The staff picks Iuri Alcantara, 4-2.

    Lightweight Bout: Francisco Trinaldo vs. Jesse Ronson


    Jeffrey Harris: Francisco Trinaldo, Decision
    Evan Zivin: MASSARANDUBA!!!!, TKO, Round 3
    Robert Winfree: Francisco Trinaldo, TKO Round 1
    Alex Rella: Trinaldo, Decision
    Paul Lapointe: Drinaldo, Submission, RD2
    Robert Practor: Francisco Trinaldo, Decision
    The staff picks Francisco Trinaldo, 6-0.

    Lightweight Bout: Rodrigo Damm vs. Ivan Jorge


    Jeffrey Harris: Rodrigo Damm, Decision
    Evan Zivin: Ivan Jorge, Decision
    Robert Winfree: Ivan Jorge, Decision
    Alex Rella: Damm, Decision
    Paul Lapointe: (Never bet against Batman) Jorge, Submission , RD2
    Robert Practor: Rodrigo Damm, Decision
    The staff calls it a draw, 3-3.

    Lightweight Bout: Cristiano Marcello vs. Joe Proctor


    Jeffrey Harris: Joe Proctor, TKO, Round 2
    Evan Zivin: Joe Procter, Decision
    Robert Winfree: Cristiano Marcello, Decision
    Alex Rella: Proctor, TKO, Round 2
    Paul Lapointe: Proctor, KO, RD1
    Robert Practor: Christiano Marcello, Decision
    The staff picks Joe Proctor, 4-2.



    THE MAIN CARD:

    Featherweight Bout: Charles Oliveira vs. Andy Ogle


    Jeffrey Harris: This is a decent featherweight matchup. Oliveira hasn't quite lived up to his promise that he showed early on in his UFC run and has been very inconsistent, even after moving down to featherweight. He did go toe-to-toe for three rounds with Frankie Edgar, but he still wasn't able to pick up the victory. Though, based on his skillset, I think he easily takes Andy Ogle in this fight. I'm predicting Oliveira to get this to the ground and pick up the submission.

    Winner: Charles Oliveira, Submission, Round 1

    Evan Zivin: It's been over a year and a half since Oliveira last won a fight. Since then, he's been knocked out by Cub Swanson and outclassed over three rounds by Frankie Edgar. He needs a win to get his career back on track and he should be able to get one against Ogle. Andy is a very durable and scrappy guy. He's looked good in victory over Josh Grispi as well as in defeat to Akira Corassani and Cole Miller. He doesn't possess a ton of technique but what he lacks is made up for with a willingness to do whatever it takes to win. I'm not so sure Oliveira can finish the Brit but if he can set the pace and keep Ogle from securing any dominant positions on the ground, it should be his to win.

    Winner: Charles Oliveira, Decision

    Robert Winfree: I have a hard time not getting excited for Charles Oliveira, he's an exciting fighter. Unfortunately he's on a two fight skid after losses to Cub Swanson and Frankie Edgar. Oliveira has a good striking game, his leg kicks are solid, and his guard is one of the most active and effective in the division. His top game isn't great, but that's also relative to the competition he's been facing. Andy Ogle isn't nearly the caliber of fighter that Cub Swanson or Frankie Edgar is. Oliveira is a guy the UFC wants to turn into a big deal, Ogle is here to make him look good, and I don't see Ogle upsetting the apple cart.

    Winner: Charles Oliveira, Submission Round 1

    Alex Rella: This should be a solid featherweight fight to start the show. Charles Oliveira has been with the UFC for a couple years now and he's had some nice submission victories, but he isn't a great fighter only going 4-4 inside the octagon. Andy Ogle has looked ok since coming off of TUF, but I'm taking Oliveira as he only loses to some of the best fighters in the lower weight classes and right now that just isn't Ogle.

    Winner: Oliveira, Submission, Round 2

    Paul Lapointe: This is a pretty good scrap to open the main card. It also adds to the credence that the UFC stacks the deck in Brazil's favour when they book these cards. Slowly but surely the foreign muscle have been creeping back but the brass usually want to appease them rabid Brazilian fight fans and more power to them for that. To gear this rant back on point, this match was built to specifically work in Da Bronx's favour. After two high level talents being thrown his way he gets Andy Ogle. The previous statement is not a snide remark on Andy's skill as he has guts and hart for days but just can't get over that proverbial hump. That being said Charles is definitely in charage as has a nasty submission game and if he can get Ogle to the mat I see some leg damage ALA Eric Wisely bad. Ouch.
    Also Andy does know that a Little Axe is a Hatchet, right?

    Winner: Charles Oliveira, Submission, RD1

    Robert Practor: Charles Oliveira more than held his own against Urijah Faber in the midst of Faber's incredible 2013 run and.. well.. Andy Ogle is no Urijah Faber. Oliveira is young and I see a lot of room for advancement for him, beginning with a solid performance and submission win here.

    Winner: Charles Oliveira, Submission, Round 2

    The staff picks Charles Oliveira, 6-0.



    Welterweight Bout: Viscardi Andrade vs. Nicholas Musoke


    Jeffrey Harris: Viscardi Andrade follows up his impressive quick working of Bristol Marunde at UFC 163 with his next bout against Nicholas Musoke, who submitted Alessio Sakara in his UFC debut at UFC Fight Night 30. It's tough to predict what to expect from these guys. However, I'm leaning toward Andrade picking up the win here.

    Winner: Andrade, Decision

    Evan Zivin: I know very few people have any idea who these guys are but this fight has potential to be really good. Andrade is an alum from TUF Brazil 2 who was as impressive as one can be in defeating Bristol Marunde in his Octagon debut. Musoke is the man who fought Alessio Sakara on short notice and tapped him out in two minutes in his debut. Both men are aggressive finishers and will look to do the same on Saturday. I'm leaning towards the Swede for this fight because he possesses a stronger grappling game than Andrade and I think he'll be able to get this fight to the ground before Viscardi has any clue what's happening. Or he'll knock Andrade out. Musoke has more ways to win so I'll give him the edge.

    Winner: Nicholas Musoke, Submission, Round 2

    Robert Winfree: Viscardi Andrade and Nicholas Musoke are both on their second fights with the UFC, Andrade defeated Bristol Marunde in his debut while Musoke submitted Alessio Sakara with an armbar. I'm not sure about this one, but I'm leaning towards Musoke, likely via decision.

    Winner: Nicholas Musoke, Decision

    Alex Rella: Both of these guys were victorious in their UFC debuts against guys who are no longer with the company. They both had quick victories over lackluster competition so it's hard to analyze this one too much. I guess I'll take Andrade as he looked a little more impressive to me and he's fought against some other UFC guys in the past.

    Winner: Andrade, Decision

    Paul Lapointe: In a recent article I read, Andrade was quoted as being a bad guy and wondered exactly why he has had to wait so long for a fight. Could a layoff effect him, I don't think so but being that I am in Sweden I have to go for the home boy. Musoke by ground murder.

    Winner: Musoke, Submission, RD2

    Robert Practor: Viscardi Andrade looks to follow up on his destruction of Bristol Marunde in his UFC debut in August of last year. I don't see Musoke having anything special to offer Andrade here and I see another win for Andrade.

    Winner: Viscardi Andrade, TKO, Round 1

    The staff calls it a draw, 3-3.



    Welterweight Bout: Erick Silva vs. Takenori Sato


    Jeffrey Harris: This is more or less a get well fight for Silva, another fighter who looked like a dynamite prospect but has fizzled out as of late due to some inconsistent performances. Granted, Silva did get screwed out of a fight he should've won against Carlo Prater, which goes on his record as a DQ loss. Sato is a former Pancrase welterweight champion who makes his UFC debut with this fight. He's got a lot of fights and experience under his belt, and he hasn't lost since 2010. However, he hasn't really beaten anyone of note since then. Silva takes care of business and quickly puts Sato away, unless he's gun shy from that last loss to Dong Hyun Kim.

    Winner: Erick Silva, TKO, Round 1

    Evan Zivin: It looks like UFC really wants Erick to get back into the win column. For all the hype he was given after his UFC debut in 2011, he sure hasn't done a lot with it, alternating wins and losses his entire UFC career. In his last fight, he fought Dong-Hyun Kim, who spent the entire fight doing nothing but look for knockout shots. The strategy should have failed but Erick played into it and got knocked out in the second round. Hopefully he's been learning from those losses. Sato is the welterweight King of Pancrase (I'm impressed he hasn't had to vacate the belt yet) and has 17 wins but he also has 8 defeats, including 5 by knockout. Sato will likely be looking to submit Erick so as long as the fight stays standing Erick should be able to pick up another victory.

    Winner: Erick Silva, TKO, Round 1

    Robert Winfree: Erick Silva is a guy the UFC really wants to be a big deal. He's an exciting striker, moves forward a lot, and has a high finish rate. These are things the UFC highly prizes. Unfortunately Silva also isn't good on the defensive side of things, as evidenced by his last fight when Dong-Hyun Kim knocked him out cold during an exchange when Silva failed to do something as simple as move his head off of the line of attack. Silva has been trading wins and losses, though his DQ loss to Carlo Prater was questionable, which means he should win here. Takenori Sato is making his promotional debut after becoming the best rickshaw guy fighting in various Japanese promotions. Sato can win if he's smart, because Erick Silva doesn't fight smart, but I find that highly unlikely. This is a get well fight for Silva, and he's likely to make it look just like that.

    Winner: Erick Silva, TKO Round 1

    Alex Rella: Erick Silva hits hard and has shown some nice grappling skills as well, but he just makes stupid mistakes that prevent him from becoming a top fighter. He usually puts on good fights win or lose and is a good fighter to have on these smaller Brazilian shows. I've never seen Sato fight before, but he's been the Pancrase welterweight champion since 2011. I'll take Silva as he has had moments of awesomeness in the past against some top competition.

    Winner: Silva, TKO, Round 1

    Paul Lapointe: Lamb meet slaughter. End of story. Sato was a humble man, a kind man, a soon to be dead man.

    Winner: Erick Silva, DEATH (TKO), RD1

    Robert Practor: Despite the fact that Takenori Sato is relatively unknown, the odds being at -1100 for Silva and +700 for Sato is pretty far out there, making him one of the biggest underdogs in UFC history. I certainly expect Erick Silva to win here but I just had to make note of those odds here. I feel the UFC rushed Silva into the deep end of the Welterweight division and this is the type of fight I called for after his last loss. Silva could be great but he needs more time to develop against lower ranked fighters than Jon Fitch and Stun Gun Kim, so hopefully Silva makes a nice statement here.

    Winner: Erick Silva, Submission, Round 2

    The staff picks Erick Silva, 6-0.



    Middleweight Bout: Ronaldo Souza vs. Francis Carmont


    Jeffrey Harris: Say what you want about Francis Carmont, but he's been successful so far and managed to put a six fight win streak together in the UFC. Granted, Jacare is a few cuts above Carmont's previous opposition. He's much more dangerous off his back than most of the fighters Carmont has narrowly grinded out decision wins over, and he has also proven to be very formidable with his striking as well. Now granted, if Carmont is prepared and he is able to stifle Souza's offense, yes he could win this. Souza isn't unbeatable as Luke Rockhold and Gegard Mousasi have already proven. But, I think Souza will be too much for Carmont and give the Tristar product his fourth submission loss.

    Winner: Ronaldo Souza, Submission, Round 2

    Evan Zivin: This fight will be either really exciting or really boring depending on who is able to execute their gameplan more effectively. I don't want to say that Carmont is a boring fighter (but you can...IN THE COMMENTS!) but he does excel in controlling his opponents in the clinch and on the ground, taking rounds in close fights quite consistently. "Jacare" Souza, on the other hand, doesn't like to play that game. Jacare likes to finish. He is one of the most accomplished jiu-jitsu practitioners to step foot inside a cage and his striking is really good as well. Jacare fought a fighter with a similar style to Carmont in Yushin Okami and expertly shut down Okami's game before finishing him with strikes. The former Strikeforce champion is on a mission to get to the UFC belt and this fight will get him one step closer when he finishes Carmont and does what countless others have failed to do: make a Francis Carmont fight interesting.

    Winner: Ronaldo Souza, Submission, Round 1

    Robert Winfree: I don't have much patience for Francis Carmont. The man is a boring fighter. That is being counterbalanced here by Jacare Souza, a man who hasn't had a boring fight that I've ever seen. Souza is a monster on the ground, and since Carmont tends to fight to win fights by being on top a lot, he could be in trouble here. Souza isn't complacent on the ground, he's either attack with submissions or looking for sweeps, and he keeps looking for them. Carmont has a questionable gas tank as well, if Souza can't get him in the first he'll likely get him in the third when Carmont tires. I think Souza lands a big punch standing and finishes this on the ground, which has been his M.O. lately.

    Winner: Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza, Submission Round 1

    Alex Rella: I can't stand Francis Carmont and I'm glad the UFC finally put him against a fighter that won't allow him to implement his lame style. Jacare Souza is going to destroy him in the first round, either by submission or knockout. My guess is Souza knocks him down fairly quickly and locks in a submission.

    Winner: Souza, Submission, Round 1

    Paul Lapointe: Kick it into high gear or stop wasting our time is probably what is on DW's mind. Carmont has been getting gift decisions as of late but his W's keep piling up by hook or by crook no matter how you look at it. Souza try is a scaly mother and it goes without saying that his ground skills are in another stratosphere and Carmont's dry hump and growl technique most likely will not work here. So Does Carmont try standing and if so will he have Okami luck. Well, Jacare could be next in line if Machida ducks and tumbles so I see fireworks.

    Winner: J-Gator, Submission, RD2

    Robert Practor: Francis Carmont is on a nice win streak and he could play the spoiler to 'Jacare' Souza here. Jacare, though, has looked impeccable earning finishes in his past five fights. The improvements in his striking game make him all the more dangerous. Although Lyoto Machida may be next in line for a Middleweight Title shot at either Chris Weidman or Vitor Belfort, I'd be more interested in seeing Jacare in there. Regardless, I don't see anyone stopping Jacare anytime soon so he should get there sooner than later.

    Winner: 'Jacare' Souza, Submission, Round 2

    The staff picks Ronaldo Souza, 6-0.



    Middleweight Bout: Lyoto Machida vs. Gegard Mousasi


    Jeffrey Harris: This is a great, intriguing matchup with huge implications for both fighters. Machida has looked impressive enough so far after his move down to middleweight. He can potentially be next in line for a title shot with a win here depending on how things pan out with Vitor Belfort vs. Chris Weidman. For Mousasi, this is really the toughest test he's had since fighting King Mo in Strikeforce when he lost the heavyweight title. Since that time he's beaten the following oppoents: Jake O'Brien, Tatsuya Mizuno, Hiroshi Izumi, Ovince St. Preux, Mike Kyle, and Ilir Latifi. Oh, and he fought to a drew with Keith Jardine. His current resume hasn't been all that impressive. Now he returns to a weight class he previously found success at. He knocked out Jacare in 2008 to capture the DREAM middleweight title and won the Middleweight Grand Prix. He's not fought at 185 lbs in over five years. Previously, Mousasi said he couldn't make that weight anymore. After going to Strikeforce, he spoke of eventually fighting at light heavyweight, so I'm curious to see how well this weight cut will treat him. While I like Mousasi and find him talented, and I've wanted to see him in a marquee matchup like this for years, he's said a lot of things that make me question how dedicated and prepared he is for a fighter like Machida. I think Mousasi has the abilities to hurt or beat Machida, but my gut says Machida will outpoint and beat Mousasi this time.

    Winner: Lyoto Machida, Decision

    Evan Zivin: This is another fight that could have middleweight title implications for at least one of the men if they win. Dana White has already said Machida is likely to get the next shot if he wins here. It's easy to make a case. Not only is Machida the former champion at light heavyweight, he also fought Mark Munoz in his middleweight debut last October and destroyed him with a head kick. What isn't so certain is where Mousasi will end up if he wins. The Dreamcatcher comes into this fight having not fought in almost a year. He last competed against Alexander Gustafsson's stunt double, Ilir Latifi, in a fight that Mousasi didn't look all that impressive in despite dominating every round. This will also be Mousasi's first middleweight fight since 2008. I don't think Mousasi gets a title shot with a win (unless he kills Machida) but he does stand a chance of winning. He may need to rely on his wrestling to get the job done but it's possible. That being said, I can't go against Machida. Lyoto has a more dangerous striking game than Mousasi and he should be able to stuff any takedown attempts that Mousasi may go for. Machida also has a better gas tank so he'll stand a better chance of winning the longer the fight goes. I think Machida will use his slow, calculating style to pick Mousasi apart and take a unanimous decision to put himself in line to face the winner of Chris Weidman vs. Vitor Belfort. Should be a good one.

    Winner: Lyoto Machida, Decision

    Robert Winfree: This is a big fight for both men, Mousasi is returning to the middleweight division for the first time since he won the DREAM Grand Prix at that weight in 2008, KO'ing Jacare Souza with an up kick in the finals. Since then Mousasi has been fighting at light heavyweight. Lyoto Machida could earn a title shot with an impressive win here. The fight could suck, both men are counter strikers and that could lead to a lot of circling, leg kicks, and feints. Machida is the better counter striker, so if Mousasi tries that game he's likely to lose. Machida also showed more aggression in his last fight, he's still a counter striker, but he seemed to have more urgency when he KO'd Mark Munoz in the first round of his last fight. I think Machida has that same type of fight here and Mousasi falls to The Dragon.

    Winner: Lyoto Machida, TKO Round 2

    Alex Rella: I've been looking forward to this fight since it was announced and I can't wait to see how it plays out. This fight has the potential to be kinda dull considering both men are mainly counter strikers, but I'm hoping it turns out good. We all know what Lyoto Machida brings to the table and I think a lot of people aren't giving Mousasi the credit he deserves. He's only lost once since 2006 and that was when Mo Lawal just overwhelmed him with his wrestling. He's a deceptively good striker with his boxing background and really uses his jab well to neutralize opponents. And his ground game is pretty good too with eleven submission victories. I think this will be a close battle and I think Mousasi will edge him out if Machida implements his slow non-aggressive style that has caused him some fights in the past.

    Winner: Mousasi, Decision

    Paul Lapointe: I really want Gegard to bring his A game as he deserves a bevy more recognition and respect thrown his way after all this time. Lyoto has realized that his championship aspirations are night considering his age and name value he needs to remove himself from the scorecards. Can he get another go with a big gold belt? I see this going to the later rounds and maybe even to final round, that is when this fight gets interesting. I am happy with either man getting the nod. I go against the grain just for giggles.

    Winner: Mousasi, Decision, RD5

    Robert Practor: I've never been as high on Gegard Mousasi as many others have. Add in the fact that he's been out for 10 months due to ACL injury, he's going to have ring rust. Also, it's been a long while since he was in the cage with some real competition. Machida has always been a top fighter and I expect Middleweight to continue to be a good fit for 'The Dragon'. While Machida may not get a finish, I see him clearly outworking Mousasi en route to a decision victory. That being said, this fight is a five-rounder and Mousasi may really tire in the later rounds, opening himself up to something dangerous from Machida.

    Winner: Lyoto Machida, Decision

    The staff picks Lyoto Machida, 4-2.



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