411's MMA Roundtable Preview - UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Henderson 2
Posted by Dan Plunkett on 03.22.2014
Shogun Rua and Dan Henderson face off for the second time in the main event of UFC Fight Night 38! Plus CB Dollaway faces Cezar Ferreira and more! Check out the full roundtable for all the details and join 411 for LIVE coverage of the event Sunday night!
Mauricio "Shogun" Rua and Dan Henderson clash once again in the main event of UFC Fight Night from Brazil! In the co-main event, Cezar Ferreira battles CB Dollaway. At lightweight, Leonardo Santos goes up against Norman Parke. In light heavyweight action, Fabio Maldonado faces Gian Villante. Plus, Rony Jason fights Steven Siler, Michel Prazeres vs. Mairbek Taisumov, and more!
From Forgotten Fights, Paul Lapointe!
From MMA's 3R's, Jeffrey Harris!
From The Round Horn, Koeddy Laemmle!
From the Locked in the Guillotine MMA News Report, Robert Winfree!
From The 411 MMA Top 10, Alex Rella!
THE PRELIMINARY CARD:
First two prelims on UFC Fight Pass, rest on Fox Sports 1.
Light Heavyweight Bout: Francimar Barroso vs. Hans Stringer
Paul Lapointe: Stringbean, TKO, RD3 Jeffrey Harris: Hans Stringer, Decision Koeddy Laemmle: Francimar Barroso, Decision Robert Winfree: Francimar Barroso, Decision Alex Rella: Hans Stringer, Decision The staff picks Hans Stringer, 3-2.
Featherweight Bout: Godofredo Castro vs. Noad Lahat
Paul Lapointe: Lahat, TKO, RD2 Jeffrey Harris: Godofredo Castro, Decision Koeddy Laemmle: Godofredo Castro, Decision Robert Winfree: Noad Lahat, TKO Round 2 Alex Rella: Godofredo Castro, Decision The staff picks Godofredo Castro, 3-2.
Welterweight Bout: Thiago Perpetuo vs. Kenny Robertson
Paul Lapointe: Robertson, Submission, RD3 Jeffrey Harris: Kenny Robertson, Decision Koeddy Laemmle: Thiago Perpetuo, TKO, RD 2 Robert Winfree: Kenny Robertson, Decision Alex Rella: Kenny Robertson, Decision The staff picks Kenny Robertson, 4-1.
Flyweight Bout: Jussier Formiga vs. Scott Jorgensen
Paul Lapointe: Jorgensen, KO, RD1 Jeffrey Harris: Jussier Formiga, TKO, Round 2 Koeddy Laemmle: Jussier Formiga, Submission, RD 2 Robert Winfree: Scott Jorgensen, Decision Alex Rella: Scott Jorgensen The staff picks Scott Jorgensen, 3-2.
Middleweight Bout: Ronny Markes vs. Thiago Santos
Paul Lapointe: Markes, Decision, RD3 Jeffrey Harris: Ronny Markes, Decision Koeddy Laemmle: Thiago Santos, Decision Robert Winfree: Ronny Markes, Decision Alex Rella: Ronny Markes, Decision The staff picks Ronny Markes, 4-1.
Featherweight Bout: Diego Brandao vs. Will Chope
Paul Lapointe: Brandao, KO, RD1 Jeffrey Harris: Diego Brandao, TKO, Round 2 Koeddy Laemmle: Diego Brandao, Decision Robert Winfree: Diego Brandao, TKO Round 1 Alex Rella: Diego Brandao, TKO, Round 2 The staff picks Diego Brandao, 5-0.
THE MAIN CARD:
Featherweight Bout: Rony Jason vs. Steven Siler
Paul Lapointe: Steven Siler is a guy that if his head is on straight and not somewhere up in the clouds can be a real something in the cage. His record and previous attitude that I can recall from TUF really drive that home. He is stubborn, hard nosed but gritty and tough. You put those elements together and you sometimes get narrow sighted and often brash in competition and that is why I believe his record does not clearly reflect his true skills. When and if he focuses on primarily whats in front of him, that person being Jony Jason I see him being able to handle the situation. A good to great all around fighter himselfis Jony but he tends to get emotional and one dimensional in his gameplans. My best example is his lay and pray for points to win the TUF: Brazil title a few years back. Maybe getting plucked in the noggin by Jeremy Stephens woke him up a little and got him off his own jock strap but it may have also made him over think this fight. Both are solid and moldidable dudes but whoever loses sight of who is front of him for whats in there future will lose this fight. To me, Jason may play smother and I see Super not having any of it and making it all about the stand up, 2 rounds to 1.
Winner: Siler, Decision, RD3
Jeffrey Harris: This is actually a good fight for the featherweight division, despite both fighters coming off losses. I enjoy both of these guys fights and they have solid UFC records at 3-1 for Jason and 5-2 for Siler. Siler got the biggest win of his career recently when he knocked out Mike Brown. However, he quickly lost his momentum after a loss to Dennis Bermudez less than three months later at Fight for the Troops 3. However, Bermudez has put quite a hot streak together as well and has proven to be a top 10 featherweight now. Siler is actually a talented, underrated fighter. He's 27 years old and has over 30 fights under his belt, plus a winning UFC record. However, while he's got 23 wins, he's also lost over 11 times and has generally been unable to break into the top 10 when the opportunity presents itself for him. Jason is an exciting Brazilian fighter and prospect. He won his season of The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil. A fight like Siler is a good test for him after he was knocked out by Jeremy Stephens to see how Jason will recover from a tough loss that got him so emotional that he smashed a Plexiglas wall and got suspended. Between these two, I believe Jason is the superior grappler and striker, provided he's still not reeling from his previous loss, I think Jason will unleash the fury of his favorite hockey-masked horror movie monster and put away Siler.
Winner: Rony Jason, TKO, Round 2
Koeddy Laemmle: This should be a really fun matchup between two Ultimate Fighter alumni. Both men are coming off of devastating losses and are needing this victory to get themselves back in the mix of things. Both fighters are going to be more than happy to keep this fight standing. Although Steven Siler has seen great improvement all around since his time in the Ultimate Fighter house I believe Jason is going to overwhelm Siler in all aspects of the fight. Siler will have his moments but will ultimately serve as a stepping stone for Jason in this fight as Jason will be the one to earn this victory and move up the Featherweight rankings.
Winner: Rony Jason, Decision
Robert Winfree: Both men are coming off of losses here, but while Siler lost a unanimous decision to Diego Brandao, Rony Jason was head kicked into oblivion by Jeremy Stephens. Siler's two losses in the UFC have been to Darren Elkins and Dennis Bermudez, two guys who out wrestled him. Rony Jason isn't a strong wrestler, but he is a solid striker and a good grappler. Siler is a good grappler but his striking has been his bread and butter so far. This should be a fun fight, both men will come out at likely strike with each other until the horn sounds or one falls over. I'm going with Siler to out work and out strike Rony Jason.
Winner: Steven Siler, Decision
Alex Rella: This should be a really exciting featherweight fight and I'll be surprised if it doesn't get fight of the night. Both fighters recently had their winning streaks snapped, so this is an important fight as only the winner will stay relevant in the UFC's featherweight division. The two TUF alumni will likely come out and get into a fun slugfest. I think Siler is the better all around fighter plus he only really has difficulty with high level wrestlers and that's not Jason.
Winner: Siler, Decision
The staff picks Steven Siler, 3-2.
Lightweight Bout: Michel Prazeres vs. Mairbek Taisumov
Paul Lapointe: Speaking of one dimensional smotherers here we have Michel Prazeres. After barely sqeaking out a split decision in his last outing against Canadian Jesse Ronson he comes in last minute to take on one of the soldiers in the European UFC invasion just months after his debute. Mairbeks original opponent in Gleison Tibau is a much higher goal to reach for when trying to make a statement in the UFC's lightweight division but with his scratch he will settle for this other Brazilian guy. Noting again why sometimes its hard to judge Brazilian talent by a winning streak Prazere's 17-0 record upon entering the UFC made it look like he was not a one trick pony...umm...or Donkey in Brazil, I guess. But really his game is top pressure and jiu jitsu, something if coupled with wrestling has a tendency to inflict headaches on Russian fighters but I do not think so here so much. Though its early to get on Mairbeks bandwagon after his forgettable decision victory in January (the 1st in his pro career) I see him branching out here to showcase some other facets of his game.
Winner: Mairbek, TKO, RD2
Jeffrey Harris: Here's a lightweight battle between two fairly new UFC fighters. Taisumov is an Austrian fighter who debuted earlier this year on the UFC Fight Night 34 card on Fight Pass, beating Tae Hyun Bang by unanimous decision. Prazeres is a Brazilian fighter who lost in his UFC debut to longtime veteran Paul Thiago at UFC on FX 8. He then rebounded with a split decision win over Jesse Ronson at UFC 165 last September. Both fighters have a good deal of experience and decent records, though mostly against fairly unknown competition. Based on their abilities and experience, I'm expecting Prazeres to utilize his grappling skills to beat Taisumov here.
Winner: Michel Prazeres, Decision
Koeddy Laemmle: It's too bad Gleison Tibau had to pull out of this fight against Taisumov, he would have been a good test for Taisumov. Instead we are stuck with this fight that would have been best served for the preliminaries. I expect a similar performance from Taisumov as his UFC debut in January where he ground out a win against Tau Hyun Bang. Michael "Tractor" Prazeres walks into the fight with an impressive 17-1 record and shouldn't be completely discredited in this fight with his exception ground skills.
Winner: Mairbek Taisumov, Decision
Robert Winfree: This was supposed to be Mairbek Taisumov taking on Gleison Tibau, Tibau got injured and we've got Prazeres stepping in. I'm a little sad about that loss, I generally like seeing how guys stack up against Tibau, but this became a much more winnable fight for Taisumov. Taisumov had a solid enough UFC debut, winning by clear cut unanimous decision. I'm going with the Austrian to take this one.
Winner: Mairbek Taisumov, Decision
Alex Rella: This is a bit of a drop off from the first fight and I would rather see most of the prelim fights get this spot on the main card. Taisumov is 1-0 in the UFC and Prazeres is 1-1, but neither one has looked great so far. Maybe I'm wrong and one of these guys turns out to have a nice UFC career. I'll pick Taisumov as he looked pretty good the couple times I saw him fight in M-1.
The staff picks Mairbek Taisumov, 4-1.
Light Heavyweight Bout: Fabio Maldonado vs. Gian Villante
Paul Lapointe: This is going to be shoe horn ugly if Fabio has his wits about him. Love the body shot this fights for you. In all seriousness though if Gian wants to get off the hump and into some hype like some people think he can he needs to showcase here. This bout is tailor made for him to shine or fall back into meh territory. Fabio has ever one gameplan and if he can limit the cliches and pepper away at all the scar tissue lingering in and around that pretty mug of Maldonaldo he will be able to pull away here. Now, never let smarts get in the way of a good ole fashioned brawl though which Fabio's fights tend to veer into but decisions also tend to be tricky for him too.
Winner: Gian, Doctor Stoppage, RD3
Jeffrey Harris: Fabio Maldonado is not a very well rounded fighter, but he's earned a decent reputation for being a tough striker or who just likes to throw caution into the wind and stand and bang. He's an overall pretty sloppy fighter, but he appears to have a decently favorable match-up here in Gian Villante. Villante is a Strikeforce veteran who had a 3-2 record there, and he beat some decent albeit unspectacular competition. Looking at both guys' overall games, it wouldn't surprise me to see this fight becoming a stand-up war. And that is where Maldonado will be able to get the advantage and stop Villante.
Winner: Fabio Maldonado, TKO, Round 1
Koeddy Laemmle: Fireworks will fly in this "Fight of the Night" dark horse. Fabio Maldonado has seen nothing but success since his back was put to the wall following his person beatdown from Glover Texeira, winning both his fights by decision last year. He will get a great test with the heavy handed Gian Villante who is looking to make his mark in the UFC's Light Heavyweight division. Maldonado will need another gutsy performance if Villante is able to land some bombs and earn himself a second win in the UFC.
Winner: Gian Villante: TKO: RD 2
Robert Winfree: Fabio Maldonado hasn't had a bad fight in the UFC so far, and Gian Villante will be willing to stand in front of the former professional boxer and both will swing leather. I'm actually favoring Villante here, Maldonado likes to be in close and hit the body and I think Villante will be able to stay away from the wild brawling and out land Maldonado to take a decision.
Winner: Gian Villante, Decision
Alex Rella: I can't stand Fabio Maldonado and I really hope the Strikeforce veteran Gian Villante can knock him out. Villante has some heavy hands, but he isn't a great fighter while Maldonado's boxing is highly overrated. I expect these two to stand and strike rather sloppily. It should at least make for an entertaining fight. Villante would be smart to wrestle more in this fight and I think he's strong enough on the ground and up against the cage to pull out the win.
Winner: Villante, Decision
The staff picks Gian Villante, 4-1.
Lightweight Bout: Leonardo Santos vs. Norman Parke
Paul Lapointe: If Parke can keep himself off his back and has better cardio then Macario (which he does in spades) he follows his previous fights to the letter and walks away 3 rounds further into his UFC fight career and with another win. Santos sure as hell cannot stand in this fight but he will have to be patient which to Norman's credit he is as well and is never one to lose his cool in the confines, another day at the office for the Stormin one. Granted if Norman you do get put on your back...pray.
Winner: Stormin' Normin, Decision, RD3
Jeffrey Harris: Here we have the winner of The Ultimate Fighter: The Smashes facing the winner of The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil 2. Norman Parke is a Northern Irishman with over 13 submission career wins. Leonardo Santos has fought in BAMMA and Sengoku before went on to win TUF: Brazil by submitting William Macario. For this fight, I think Parke will want to keep it standing, but here actually, I think it will be OK if the fight does go to the round. I see Parke outpointing Santos to get the win.
Winner: Norman Parke, Decision
Koeddy Laemmle: Remember when fights between former Ultimate Fighter winners was something rare and hyped up? This fight doesn't really live up to those trailblazing encounters but it will help determine where both of these fighters will stand in the very crowded Lightweight division. Norman Parke has a distinct advantage in the standup game where he will be trying to keep this fight. Many of Santos' wins have come via submission and he will look to going to his bag of tricks of this fight but Parke is no slouch to get to the ground and I think he will struggle early on in the standup.
Winner: Norman Parke, Decision
Robert Winfree: I actually forgot that these are two TUF winners, but they are. Santos is a really solid submission artist while Parke is more of a striker. A lot of this will depend on if Santos can get Parke to the mat, and I'm leaning towards thinking he can.
Winner: Leonardo Santos, Submission, Round 1
Alex Rella: So the winner of TUF Brazil 2 takes on the winner of TUF: Smashes. Santos looked impressive when he won TUF last summer and I'm looking forward to see how he does against a UFC caliber fighter. Parke is 3-0 in the UFC and on a nine fight winning streak. The best part of Parke's game is his striking, but he isn't bad on the ground either and I think he has some real potential to make it to the top of the UFC's lightweight division. I expect Parke to keep his winning streak going.
Winner: Parke, Decision
The staff picks Norman Parke, 4-1.
Middleweight Bout: Cezar Ferreira vs. CB Dollaway
Paul Lapointe: This fight is just super peculiar to me. One, you have a Doberman pincher faced CB a man so two faced in his fights since TUF you really have no way of gauging his real talent. Then you have Mutante, the young desciple of The Phenom that is built like a tractor trailer but has beaten only people from TUF: Brazil since being in the UFC while also in Brazil. At least at this point he has branched out to TUF guys from America. All that in mind CB needs to utilize close quartered grappling fast and often if he plans on winning. Both these guys have faced Daniel Sarafian and though CB made it a super fun fight, Cezar cruised controlled through the third to get the nod while huffing and puffing along the way. These things considered the dog faced gremlin has a more then suspect chin in the cage but it may stand up against Ferreira's lung capacity. And lastly Dollaway once pulled off a peruvian necktie in the octagon. That is just cool.
Winner: CB, Submission, RD3
Jeffrey Harris: Many complained about CB Dollaway fighting Daniel Sarafian on the main card of UFC on FX 7, also in Brazil. But it actually turned out to be an exciting fight and the Fight of the Night. CB Dollaway is not a world beater, and generally a mid-level guy at best. He's been up and down throughout his UFC career. Whenever he puts a couple nice wins together he comes up short in the bigger fights to the likes of Tim Boetsch or Mark Munoz. That being said, I've been a fan of Dollaway since his days on The Ultimate Fighter, and I'm pulling for him to spoil the night for another the local Brazilian fans again. Dollaway's wrestling and grappling skills will give him the edge here to grind out a win against Ferreira.
Winner: CB Dollaway, Decision
Koeddy Laemmle: Cezar Ferreira has built up a three fight win streak including winning the original Ultimate Fight Brazil Middleweight finals. Meanwhile the veteran fighter, CB Dollaway has seen mixed results since losing the TUF 7 Finals nearly seven years ago. Both men have faced a familiar opponent in Daniel Sarafian in 2013 with both gaining close split decision victories over him. This fight shapes up to be quite the interesting matchup. Dollaway has superior wrestling skills and will want to keep this fight grounded, something Ferriera has been excellent at avoiding thus far in his UFC career. If Ferreira can keep the fight standing, it'll take just one shot to end the fight.
Winner: Cezar Ferreira, KO, RD 2
Robert Winfree: Oh, CB Dollaway is fighting. Yeah, that's rarely a good thing. Both guys have a penchant for decisions and grappling heavy fights, I'm hoping this fight becomes watchable, but not terribly hopeful about that. I'm leaning towards Ferreira just because I don't like picking Dollaway most of the time.
Winner: Cezar Ferreira, Decision
Alex Rella: As far as free UFC shows go, this isn't a bad co main event. Ferreira won the first season of TUF Brazil and is 3-0 in the UFC, but his performance in his last fight was a little disappointing. CB Dollaway has been around since TUF 7 and has made some big improvements in his game even though a lot of people still rip on him. Dollaway is usually just outside the top fifteen of the UFC's middleweight rankings and this would be the biggest win of Ferreira's career. I'll take the UFC vet to pull out the win in a close fight.
Winner: Dollaway, Decision
The staff picks CB Dollaway, 3-2.
Light Heavyweight Bout: Mauricio Rua vs. Dan Henderson
Paul Lapointe: The real Shogun is BACK!!!! Or they just keep hyping that a reality when it really isn't true, not in the least. I mean rewinding a tape to the part in the movie where something cool happens is a novelty we all had once to relive cool moments as they played out on film. But doing that and then continuing on in the movie for it only to just suck and then EXPLODE all over again is the Michael Bay treatment that has been Shogun's career in the UFC thus far. I mean shit he has been around so long I am referencing VHS tapes for god sakes. But his opponent is even older I should probably mention laser disc or beta max to make my point. Seriously though, Old Man Henderson is older, slower, much more predictable and seeping to the gills in drug therapy and still only really has his H-Bomb. The UFC seems content to keep him around to really just be a name added to other peoples resumes and like Vitor before him, Shogun is supposed to put the lights out on Hendo like father time is doing on Hendo albeit at a much slower rate. All and all the novelty of their previous fight is the selling point to get you to watch but what the UFC wants and needs is a Shogun win and an emphatic win so they can do something with Rua and keep finding ways to punish Dan for fucking up UFC 151 so many moons ago. That is what they want, as for what will happen....well...pretty much what they want.
Winner: Shogun, TKO, RD2
Jeffrey Harris: Their first fight was the greatest MMA fight in history. Unfortunately, even with it being a main event and again five rounds, I'm not expecting it to live up to the original. Still the atmosphere of it happening in Brazil should be interesting. Unfortunately for Henderson, while he is still one of the greatest of all time, it's clear he's nearing the end of his career. Henderson had a good run in Strikeforce, won the light heavyweight title, knocked out Fedor Emelianenko, returned to the UFC, edged out Shogun in the greatest fight in history, and basically peaked at that point. Unfortunately, he did not get the title shot he earned against Jon Jones and then lost back to back fights to Lyoto Machida and Rashad Evans. Granted those were close fights and split decisions with a lot of low activity from Hendo's opponents. Then he got knocked out by Belfort. Now I know there's a lot of hysteria over TRT, but guess what? Dan Henderson has been using the same treatment for almost 10 years. He admitted he started using TRT in his 30's. And, he will still be using it for this fight, as he was granted the last TRT exemption by the Brazilian athletic commission for this bout. Despite how great Henderson has looked in the sport despite his advancing age, it looks like fights such as the war with Shogun have clearly taken their toll on Hendo. He's definitely looked a lot slower and lacking in power in his recent efforts. Now Shogun Rua has had his own set of issues throughout his UFC career. He's been sidelined a lot by knee injuries. But not only that, there have been instances where it's appeared that he wasn't training hard or taking his training very seriously. One of his longtime coaches, Rafael Cordeiro, accused Shogun of not working hard following UFC 139. Shogun had returned to Kings MMA recently to train with his old coach Cordeiro for the fight with Griffin before things apparently soured. I'd read rumors that Shogun didn't want to train so geographically close to Dan Henderson before their fight since Kings MMA and Team Quest are both in California. Despite his inconsistency and his seeming lack of dedication in getting in shape for his fights, I'm going with Shogun here. Henderson has likely reached the end of his career, and I would like to see him retire and not get knocked out several times. Henderson had a great run and one of the most historic, legendary careers ever. He doesn't seem ready to retire yet, so it will ultimately be his decision. But it looks about that time for him now. Both of these men possess a lot of knockout power. I think what made the difference in the first fight though is Shogun's cardio and gas tank just were not there. Henderson himself gassed out about after the third round, but Shogun was not able to do enough to take the fight back. Hopefully the results of the Te Huna fight and the previous loss will motivate Shogun to come to this fight in shape. I think Shogun might just be putting Henderson to sleep this weekend.
Winner: Shogun Rua, TKO, Round 2
Koeddy Laemmle: This is a much anticipated rematch to one of the greatest fights in UFC history. This fight represents the drastic evolution we have seen in the Light Heavyweight division since their first encounter which had heavy implications on Jon Jones next title challenger. This fight is more about getting their name back into the mix since both fighters have fallen on tougher times since then. Shogun has split his four fights during this time and Hendo hasn't won single fight since earning the decision victory at UFC 139! This also could end up being the final fight in Henderson's legendary career with the recent ban of testosterone replacement therapy and the possibility of a 4-fight losing streak following Saturday night. I like Shogun in this fight, Hendo appears to be at the end of his road and Shogun has a legitimate chance at one more good run. I think Hendo has regressed a lot more so since Shogun during this time but the quick loss to Chael Sonnen that Shogun suffered is still fresh in everybody's mind. I think Shogun will become the 2nd person to finish Hendo and earn back the devastating loss from over 2 years ago.
Winner: Shogun Rua, KO, RD 1
Robert Winfree: The key to enjoying this fight is managing your expectations. If you expect this fight to resemble the classic they had before, you'll be disappointed. Both men are older, both men are a little more worn down, and both men are closer to the end of their careers. Since their classic bout, Rua has gone 2-2 and had an impressive KO win in his last outing while Dan Henderson has gone 0-3 and was just stopped with strikes for the first time in his career against Vitor Belfort. If Rua enters this fight healthy and motivated, I think it's his for the taking as Hendo has slowed down a fair amount over the last couple of fights. I'm going with Rua here, though Hendo is usually a live pick.
Winner: Mauricio "Shogun" Rua, Submission Round 2
Alex Rella: Unfortunately this fight is much easier to call than the original fight. Both fighters have been on the decline since their first fight in 2011, but Henderson has looked the worse of the two. He hasn't won since this fight back in 2011 and he's looked really old lately. Shogun has also gone downhill, but most of his fights have been competitive and he showed he still has something left in the tank with his awesome knockout over James Te Huna. Shogun may not be able to knock out Hendo, but he'll definitely be able to outwork him in almost every aspect of the fight.
Winner: Shogun, Submission, Round 3
The staff picks Mauricio Rua, 5-0.
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