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411's MMA Roundtable Preview - UFC Fight Night & TUF: Brazil 3 Finale
Posted by Dan Plunkett on 05.30.2014





WELCOME:
For the first time ever, UFC presents two events in one day on Saturday. First, in Berlin, Germany, Mark Munoz and Gegard Mousasi battle it out at middleweight. Later, in Sao Paulo, Brazil, Stipe Miocic vs. Fabio Maldonado headlines The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil 3 Finale. Let's meet the staff and then get to the picks!

THE STAFF:

  • From The 411 MMA Top 10, Alex Rella!

  • From MMA's 3R's, Jeffrey Harris!

  • From Five Quick Rounds, Evan Zivin!

  • From the Locked in the Guillotine MMA News Report, Robert Winfree!



    UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs. Mousasi

    THE PRELIMINARY CARD:

    All bouts stream live on UFC Fight Pass.

    Heavyweight Bout: Viktor Pesta vs. Ruslan Magomedov


    Alex Rella: Magomedov, Decision
    Jeffrey Harris: Magomedov, Decision
    Evan Zivin: Viktor Pesta, TKO, Round 1
    Robert Winfree: Ruslan Magomedov, TKO Round 1
    The staff picks Ruslan Magomdeov, 3-1.

    Featherweight Bout: Andy Ogle vs. Maximo Blanco


    Alex Rella: Ogle, Decision
    Jeffrey Harris: Ogle, TKO, Round 2
    Evan Zivin: Andy Ogle, Decision
    Robert Winfree: Andy Ogle, Disqualification
    The staff picks Andy Ogle, 4-0.

    Welterweight Bout: Peter Sobotta vs. Pawel Pawlak


    Alex Rella: Sobotta, Submission, Round 3
    Jeffrey Harris: Sobotta, DEC
    Evan Zivin: Pawel Pawlak, TKO, Round 2
    Robert Winfree: Peter Sobotta, Decision
    The staff picks Peter Sobotta, 3-1.

    Bantamweight Bout: Iuri Alcantara vs. Vaughan Lee


    Alex Rella: Alcantara, Decision
    Jeffrey Harris: Vaughan Lee, Submission, Round 2
    Evan Zivin: Iuri Alcantara, Submission, Round 1
    Robert Winfree: Vaughan Lee, Submission Round 2
    The staff picks a draw, 2-2.

    Middleweight Bout: Magnus Cedenblad vs. Krzysztof Jotko


    Alex Rella: Jotko, Decision
    Jeffrey Harris: Cedenblad, TKO, Round 2
    Evan Zivin: Magnus Cedenblad, Submission, Round 3
    Robert Winfree: Magnus Cedenblad, Decision
    The staff picks Magnus Cedenblad, 3-1.

    Lightweight Bout: Nick Hein vs. Drew Dober


    Alex Rella: Hein, Decision
    Jeffrey Harris: Hein, Decision
    Evan Zivin: Nick Hein, Decision
    Robert Winfree: Nick Hein, Decision
    The staff picks Nick Hein, 4-0.

    THE MAIN CARD:

    Featherweight Bout: Tom Niinimaki vs. Niklas Backstrom


    Alex Rella: Niinimaki, Submission, Round 3
    Jeffrey Harris: Niinimaki, Submission, Round 1
    Evan Zivin: Niklas Backstrom, TKO, Round 2
    Robert Winfree: Tom Niinimaki, Decision
    The staff picks Tom Niinimaki, 3-1.

    Middleweight Bout: Luke Barnatt vs. Sean Strickland


    Alex Rella: Barnatt, TKO, Round 2
    Jeffrey Harris: Barnatt, TKO, Round 2
    Evan Zivin: Luke Barnatt, Decision
    Robert Winfree: Luke Barnatt, TKO Round 2
    The staff picks Luke Barnatt, 4-0.

    Middleweight Bout: Francis Carmont vs. CB Dollaway


    Alex Rella: Dollaway, Decision
    Jeffrey Harris: Dollaway, Decision
    Evan Zivin: Francis Carmont, Submission, Round 3
    Robert Winfree: Francis Carmont, Decision
    The staff picks a draw, 2-2.

    Middleweight Bout: Mark Munoz vs. Gegard Mousasi


    Alex Rella: This should make for a good fight and it makes perfect sense considering where they are at this point in their careers. Both are coming off a loss to Lyoto Machida and only the winner of this one will stay somewhat near the top of the middleweight division. Mousasi just lost for the first time since 2010 and with a 34-4-2 record at only 28 years old, I think still think he has a lot of potential. Munoz is a pretty good wrestler, but even if he does get past Mousasi's boxing and score a takedown, Mousasi is the much better fighter on the ground. I expect the former Dream and Strikeforce champ to get the win here.

    Winner: Mousasi, Decision

    Jeffrey Harris: This is a good rebound fight for Gegard Mousasi after his recent return to middleweight and losing to Lyoto Machida. While he might feel differently, I see Munoz as a pretty tough gatekeeper and a good test and evaluation for a guy like Mousasi. People may forget, but a few years ago, Mousasi was getting a ton of hype as the future of the sport in Strikeforce. Muhammed Lawal basically derailed his hype train. Since Munoz is a good wrestler, this will be a good way to see how far Mousasi has come since that loss. Other than Machida, King Mo was Mousasi's only career MMA loss since a 2006 loss to Akihiro Gono in Pride FC. Munoz is a very good wrestler, and he's got some formidable ground and pound. But standing up, I think Mousasi will be way too much for him. Munoz doesn't have the greatest of chins, and I think Mousasi has the type of power to put him away.

    Winner: Mousasi, TKO, Round 2

    Evan Zivin: Both men have something in common in that they are both looking to bounce back from a loss to Lyoto Machida, although Munoz was knocked out and Mousasi just lost a close yet dull decision. Will that make a difference? Not really. Mousasi has improved a lot over the last few years but his big weakness has always been wrestling. It's what cost him the Strikeforce Light Heavyweight Championship in 2010 and it's the key to victory for Munoz. Mark has aggressive takedowns and good top control that I don't think Mousasi can stop. The story of this fight will be Munoz taking Mousasi down every round and going Donkey Kong on him.

    Winner: Mark Munoz, Decision

    Robert Winfree: This is actually a solid choice to main event a Fight Pass event. Mark Munoz has been a borderline top five guy for a while, though now he's just borderline top ten, and has a good skill set. Munoz has good wrestling, heavy top control, and some of the most powerful ground and pound in the sport. Mousasi lost his return bout to middleweight his last time out, a decision to Lyoto Machida, but has a very well rounded skill set. Mousasi has power, technical striking, and has improved his wrestling since coming to the UFC. Mousasi should find Munoz's chin and put him down since Munoz doesn't take the best punch in the world.

    Winner: Gegard Mousasi, TKO Round 2

    The staff picks Gegard Mousasi, 3-1.





    The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil 3 Finale

    THE PRELIMINARY CARD:

    First three prelims stream on UFC Fight Pass. Remaining bouts on FS 1.

    Bantamweight Bout: Pedro Muhnoz vs. Matt Hobar


    Alex Rella: Munhoz, Decision
    Jeffrey Harris: Munhoz, Submission, Round 2
    Evan Zivin: Matt Hobar, Submission, Round 2
    Robert Winfree: Matt Hobar, Decision
    The staff picks a draw, 2-2.

    Middleweight Bout: Ricardo Abreu vs. Wagner Silva


    Alex Rella: Silva, Decision
    Jeffrey Harris: Silva, Decision
    Evan Zivin: Ricardo Abreu, TKO, Round 1
    Robert Winfree: Ricardo Abreu, Decision
    The staff picks a draw, 2-2.

    Heavyweight Bout: Marcos Rogerio de Lima vs. Richardson Moreira


    Alex Rella: Moreira, Decision
    Jeffrey Harris: Moreira, Decision
    Evan Zivin: Richardson Moreira, Submssion, Round 1
    Robert Winfree: Richardson Moreira, TKO Round 1
    The staff picks Richardson Moreira, 4-0.

    Featherweight Bout: Kevin Souza vs. Mark Eddiva


    Alex Rella: Souza, Decision
    Jeffrey Harris: Souza, Submission, Round 1
    Evan Zivin: Kevin Souza, Decision
    Robert Winfree: Kevin Souza, Decision
    The staff picks Kevin Souza, 4-0.

    Welterweight Bout: Paulo Thiago vs. Gasan Umalatov


    Alex Rella: Thiago, Submission, Round 3
    Jeffrey Harris: Thiago, Decision
    Evan Zivin: Paulo Thiago, Decision
    Robert Winfree: Paulo Thiago, Decision
    The staff picks Paulo Thiago, 4-0.

    Lightweight Bout: Elias Silverio vs. Ernest Chavez


    Alex Rella: Chavez, Decision
    Jeffrey Harris: Chavez, Decision
    Evan Zivin: Elias Silverio, Decision
    Robert Winfree: Elias Silverio, Decision
    The staff picks a draw, 2-2.

    Lightweight Bout: Rodrigo Damm vs. Rashid Magomedov


    Alex Rella: Magomedov, TKO, Round 2
    Jeffrey Harris: Magomedov, TKO, Round 1
    Evan Zivin: Rashid Magomedov, Decision
    Robert Winfree: Rashid Magomedov, TKO Round 2
    The staff picks Rashid Magomedov, 4-0.

    THE MAIN CARD:

    Featherweight Bout: Rony Jason vs. Robbie Peralta


    Alex Rella: Jason, KO, Round 1
    Jeffrey Harris: Jason, KO, Round 2
    Evan Zivin: Rony Jason, TKO, Round 1
    Robert Winfree: Rony Jason, TKO Round 1
    The staff picks Rony Jason, 4-0.

    Welterweight Bout: Demian Maia vs. Alexander Yakovlev


    Alex Rella: Maia, Submission, Round 1
    Jeffrey Harris: Maia, Submission, Round 1
    Evan Zivin: Demian Maia, Submission, Round 1
    Robert Winfree: Demian Maia, Submission Round 1
    The staff picks Demian Maia, 4-0.

    Middleweight Bout: Marcio Alexandre Junior vs. Warlley Alves


    Alex Rella: Alexandre, TKO, Round 2
    Jeffrey Harris: Alexandre, Decision
    Evan Zivin: Warlley Alves, Submission, Round 2
    Robert Winfree: Warlley Alves, Decision
    The staff picks a draw, 2-2.

    Heavyweight Bout: Vitor Miranda vs. Antonio Carlos Junior


    Alex Rella: Miranda, Decision
    Jeffrey Harris: Miranda, Decision
    Evan Zivin: Antonio Carlos Junior, TKO, Round 2
    Robert Winfree: Vitor Miranda, TKO Round 3
    The staff picks Vitor Miranda, 3-1.

    Heavyweight Bout: Stipe Miocic vs. Fabio Maldonado


    Alex Rella: There's no way around it, Maldonado is going to get killed in this one. Maldonado has won three lackluster fights in a row, but is now going up against one of the best heavyweights in the world. Miocic is a much larger fighter with far superior striking and wrestling. Maldonado has proven he can take a beating, but I don't expect him to be able to go the distance in this one.

    Winner: Miocic, TKO, Round 2

    Jeffrey Harris: Anything can happen in a fight, but Maldonado coming out on top as the winner here is something I find highly improbable. Now credit to Maldonado for taking this fight on such short notice after Junior dos Santos dropped out. He'll get a nice fan reception and try to put on a show. But I expect him to be absolutely dominated by Miocic. Miocic actually has pretty good technical striking and boxing, though he doesn't pack a lot of knockut power standing up. Maldonado is a bit of a lunatic inside the cage, and his aggressive, crazy style as well as his impressive chin has earned him a lot of fans. Still besides the size difference, Miocic will have another edge with his wrestling game. Anyway, Miocic wins this one.

    Winner: Miocic, Decision

    Evan Zivin: This fight will be the story of two different kinds of strikers. Miocic is very technical with his striking, using his reach to keep the fight at a distance and find ways to pick at his opponent without taking too much damage in return. It's a safer approach that isn't always the most exciting but, more times than not, it gets the job done. Maldonado is more of a brawler, having no problem getting in the face of his opponent and throwing down even if it means suffering some damage for doing so. The styles have worked for both men, as Miocic has only lost once in 12 fights and Maldonado is on a three fight win streak. So when these two styles are put together, who will win? I think it could go either way but I will give the edge to Miocic. His style will allow him to keep a steady pace throughout the entire fight and pick apart Maldonado, who will likely gas sometime in the second round of the 5 round fight. I don't predict the fight to be wildly entertaining, unless Maldonado hurts Miocic, but it should get Stipe another quality win. Thank the gods you aren't fighting Junior dos Santos, Stipe. He would have wrecked you.

    Winner: Stipe Miocic, Decision

    Robert Winfree: When this was Miocic taking on Junior dos Santos I was interested. I wanted to see how dos Santos would rebound from his last loss, how Miocic would do facing one of the two best guys in the division, there was a lot to look forward to. Now not so much. Maldonado deserves credit for stepping into this fight on short notice, but he's going to be crushed. Miocic is a big heavyweight, Maldonado is short for light heavyweight. If Miocic can't finish Maldonado then he has no hope of competing against the top of the heavyweight division. I think he will just overwhelm Maldonado, likely in the second.

    Winner: Stipe Miocic, TKO Round 2

    The staff picks Stipe Miocic, 4-0.



    Remember to join 411's coverage of both events on Saturday!





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