The Thursday Throwdown 9.07.06: Showdowns Galore
Posted by Jon Hartley on 09.07.2006
This week in the Throwdown, 411's Jon Hartley previews a huge weekend, including Pride's tournament finals and the Matt Lindland/Jeremy Horn showdown in the IFL! Also, Sean Sherk and Kenny Florian heat things up, and which UFC fighter is the newest to test positive for steroids? All this plus the Throwdown's MMA top ten rankings!
Contrary to my dim-witted statement last week, this is not a slow month for MMA, rather it's just the opposite. Among others, Pride Fighting Championships and the International Fight League are putting on some huge fights for the consumption of MMA fans this weekend, and of course later on we have UFC 63 and it's rematch between Matt Hughes and BJ Penn.
But first things first; the "open weight" tournament in Pride finally comes to a close this weekend. The survivors are matched up thusly: Pride Middleweight Champion Wanderlei Silva vs. Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic and Josh Barnett vs. former Pride Heavyweight Champion Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. Meanwhile, Sergei Kharitonov and Aleksander Emelianenko will do battle, as will perennial title contender Ricardo Arona and Alistair Overeem. Mauricio "Shogun" Rua also returns to action following his loss via freak injury to Mark Coleman.
I really think that Silva is in a win-win situation here. He's already beaten a tough heavyweight (Kazuyuki Fujita), and as long as he doesn't lose in devastating fashion via "Cro Cop decapitating head kick", he'll come out looking good. I put "open weight" in quotes because the format was flawed from the get-go, and the fact that Silva is the only remaining non-heavyweight is evidence of that. For that matter, Silva himself didn't even have to fight in the first round, instead taking Fedor Emelianenko's spot and entering directly into the second round. The original field was nearly completely filled with heavyweights, with Ikuhisa Minowa and Alistair Overeem being among the only exceptions. Actually Overeem, along with Hidehiko Yoshida and Silva are big middleweights anyway, and all have either fought at heavyweight or considered doing so in the past. To really mean something, the open weight tournament should have included the best each division had to offer, including Shogun, Takanori Gomi, Dan Henderson, Arona, Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, maybe a Phil Baroni or Denis Kang to spice things up. I know that most of these are impossible because of either injuries or other tournaments that Pride is currently running, and some of the matchups would be just plain stupid (as with the Minowa/Cro Cop sideshow)...but that's really the point: the open weight gimmick was just that, a gimmick and Pride would have done just as well to have another heavyweight tournament.
As far as my predictions, it's hard to really say what's going to happen. I will say that at least two out of three, if not all three, tournament bouts will go to decision. The matchups are so even, and the fighters so skilled, that it will be very hard for anyone left in the field to finish one of the others. Silva and Cro Cop have already fought to a draw, and although many will say (correctly) that the fight had modified rules including limited ground fighting, I don't think that will make a difference. This fight isn't likely to end on the ground anyway: Silva would have a tough time taking Cro Cop down now that Cro Cop has developed great takedown defense, and Silva hasn't shown the kind of determination to submit opponents that defeating Cro Cop in that manner would require.
Predicting who would win in a stand up war, then, is also difficult as both fighters have numerous KO's on their resumes, and neither has been a victim of many. Furthermore, Silva's fights in particular often become brawls, and although Silva frequently comes out on top, he does leave himself open as well to counterattacks. Silva has shown great recovery time when he's rocked, though...even in the famous loss to Vitor Belfort, he was never actually knocked out and was discussing the finish with John McCarthy as soon as he called the bout. I really think this one will go to an action-packed decision, and due to Silva's aggressive style, I think he will pull it out. I'm not gonna lie...I'm a huge Silva fan and it's hard for me to pick against the guy. I don't have to be impartial...I'm a columnist, not a reporter.
The other fight is no easier to pick, as Barnett and Nogueira will face each other in what will be a much different fight from the other semifinal. Barnett has looked very good in his Pride tenure, losses to Cro Cop notwithstanding. Meanwhile, Nogueira has literally beaten everyone there is to beat that's not named Fedor Emelianenko. The ground war will be very interesting to witness, and a healthy portion of the fight will take place on the mat. However, I also think we will see a decent share of standup action, and this is where Nogueira has a decisive advantage. Nogueira's boxing style will do a good job of neutralizing Barnett's less-polished standup, and I think Nogueira will eventually prevail. Nogueira's only weakness has really been against great ground-and-pound, and Barnett doesn't really bring that to the table.
I do think that the winner of Barnett-Nogueira has a great shot to win it all. I think that both fights will likely go the distance and take a toll on the fighters, but I also think that Silva and Cro Cop are going to tear each other up pretty badly, and the winner will not be up to the task of beating Barnett/Nogueira.
Elsewhere, it will be interesting to see how Shogun rebounds from his loss...almost as interesting as it will be to see what Pride does with him, should he get back on track. Other organizations, like the UFC, have avoided having two dominant fighters from the same camp in the same weight class (as evidenced by the recent departure of Jeremy Horn), but Pride has been far less concerned, as they draw heavily from certain teams, such as Brazilian Top Team and Chute Boxe. Even the brothers Emelianenko were slated to be fighting in the same tournament recently! We may not see an answer to how Pride intends to handle this for awhile, as Lil' Nog is widely rumored to be next for a title shot at Silva, and in the even that Silva wins the tournament this weekend, he may have a showdown with Fedor as well. Add this to the much-anticipated Silva-Chuck Liddell showdown (which I think will happen in 2007), and Silva's got plenty on his plate for now. But in the future, and if both fighters keep winning, it will be interesting to see how long Shogun is willing to stay in Silva's shadow.
In the American scene, the money fight this weekend is definitely the one between top ten middleweights Jeremy Horn and Matt Lindland in the IFL. The IFL is following a great promotional plan, coupling their team vs. team events with "superfights" that feature IFL coaches and top MMA fighters. There's no question that the Horn-Lindland fight adds an incredible amount of importance to the IFL event this weekend, as does the return of Pat Miletich in the other IFL event this month. The Horn-Lindland matchup in particular will shake up middleweight rankings from coast to coast.
Lindland is coming off a razor-thin decision loss to Quinton "Rampage" Jackson in the recent return of the World Fighting Alliance. Despite the loss, Lindland looked spectacular in the fight. Not only did he once again prove he's far from a boring fighter, but he nearly finished a much stronger opponent who has had great success against some very good competition. That fight only solidified Lindland's reputation as an extremely hard guy to finish, and a fighter who will give nearly anyone a run for their money. Meanwhile, Horn is on a hot streak, winning 8 of his last 9 fights. He finished a pretty successful run in the UFC recently, which saw him take Chuck Liddell to four rounds before beating Trevor Prangley in a close decision and Chael Sonnen with an excellent armbar in his other two UFC appearances. His second to last loss was to Anderson Silva by decision, and Horn's recently beaten Josh Burkman and David Loiseau.
Style-wise, this is an interesting fight. Uneducated fans will likely think it to be a potentially boring matchup, but I personally think it's much the opposite. It's true that if neither push the pace, the fight may disappoint, but I think Lindland will force the action and Horn will be actively looking for submissions. I don't think there's any chance of Lindland submitting Horn, and I don't think Horn would pull out a decision against the more-active Lindland. I think that either Horn will submit Lindland, or Lindland will win via judges decision.
Quick Thoughts
--Extremely surprising news is circulating today in the MMA world, as none other than Stephan Bonnar has apparently tested positive for a banned substance. Bonnar was tested after his second fight with Forrest Griffin and the test revealed boldenone metabolite in his system. The substance is usually used by veterinarians and is said to be less used by athletes because it lingers in your system for a long time. (source: MMA Weekly)
This is really shocking to me. First of all, anytime a UFC fighter tests positive for a banned substance I'm shocked, because why would a fighter take the chance? You know you may get tested, and in the case of main event fighters, you will get tested. Bonnar in particular is not the kind of fighter you would expect to do something like this. With that said, I'm going to reserve judgement to a certain extent until more facts come to light and Bonnar has a chance to address the situation. I do think that this is a bad thing for MMA, as part of the sport's appeal is that it is a pure competition of sorts between two athletes. Minimal rules, no teammates...one guy competing against another to see who's better. The use of steroids really takes away from that appeal and will make the fan base cynical and damage the sport's mainstream appeal. The sport needs to stay as far away from corruption and cheating as possible.
--The upcoming lightweight title fight between Sean Sherk and Kenny Florian has heated up as some unlikely trash talk has taken place between the two. Florian first posted a message on his website where he acknowledged Sherk's wrestling skills but says he is the more well-rounded fighter. He said, "his weaknesses will be found and exploited...this is Sherk's 2nd attempt at a UFC World Title, he will lose again." The comments were not that inflammatory, and pretty much par for the course for pre-fight chatter. Sherk didn't see it that way, though, saying that he fights better and trains harder "pissed and this guy pisses me off". Sherk was already angry before Florian's comments, as he says that Florian was offered the fight in August and turned it down, only to deny doing so later on. He says Florian will win "only in the wildest" of his wet dreams, and that Florian is "going to be eating a lot of leather" during the fight. Florian then responded back to Sherk on the Underground Forum, and we have a full-fledged Ken-Tito level rivalry. Well, maybe not, but their fight will be better than Ken-Tito III.
None of this is exceptionally noteworthy, except for the fact that Sherk is not the kind of guy to talk a lot of trash. The fact that he would not only be angry at Florian but that he would admit to being angry speaks volumes. Much has been made of how fighting while angry isn't always a good thing, but I think it fits Sherk's style just fine. Sherk will utilize his takedowns and sure, he has to avoid getting submitted, but I think if he's truly mad at Florian he will be more aggressive with his strikes on the ground, which will pay dividends in the end. Florian does have submission skills, but I doubt his ability to work for a good submission against an experienced fighter like Sherk while attempting to avoid a barrage of strikes. People have made an issue of Sherk not fighting at 155 lbs. before, but this is a non-issue to me. Wrestlers are experts at cutting weight and Sherk said he's already done a "mock-cut" and felt fine. I'm glad that the fight will have a little tension to increase anticipation, but I really think Sherk will win via MurderDeathKill. Sorry, "KenFlo" fans.
The Thursday Throwdown MMA Top Ten Rankings- August 2006
Yes, I know it's no longer August.
Heavyweight: (206 lbs. and up)
1. Fedor Emelianenko
2. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
3. Mirko "CroCop" Filipovic
4. Tim Sylvia
5. Josh Barnett
6. Mark Hunt
7. Fabricio Werdum
8. Brandon Vera
9. Aleksander Emelianenko
10. Andrei Arlovski
Notes: Nothing of note has happened since my last rankings to change these. No one in my top ten was active in the last month, and no one outside of it has earned a way in. This weekend may change things around a bit, as Nogueira, CroCop, Barnett, and Aleksander are all fighting. However, I don't expect any to drop much in the rankings as they are all fighting quality opponents. If Sergei Kharitonov can beat Aleksander Emelianenko decisively, he will warrant a good look.
Notes: Many have bumped Liddell up to #1 following his destruction of Babalu, but to me, Silva has been too dominant for too long to lose his spot. Unless Silva loses decisively to someone within his own weight class, it'll be hard for me to demote him. Sobral drops two spots following the loss, although I think it was more a result of poor strategy than a lack of ability. I wouldn't be surprised to see him reel off another streak of victories, and I think he would beat Tito Ortiz if they fought. Griffin comes off a win vs. Bonnar, and the win showed he has improved since he officially won his UFC contract in the first fight with Stephan. Is the win more impressive now that we know he was fighting a guy on the juice? I know, I'm being ridiculous.
Middleweight (171-185 lbs)
1. Rich Franklin
2. Matt Lindland
3. Paulo Filho
4. Denis Kang
5. Dan Henderson
6. Jeremy Horn
7. Anderson Silva
8. Nathan Marquardt
9. Ivan Salaverry
10. David Loiseau
Notes: This division saw the most shuffling, with everyone but Franklin, Silva, Loiseau and Marquardt seeing recent action. Henderson's decision loss in Pride Bushido wasn't necessarily enough to drop him three spots, but the loss combined with strong performances by Lindland, Filho and Kang is. If Horn beats Lindland, it will be very hard to decide who to leave out of the top 5. I took the opportunity to rearrange Anderson Silva, Marquardt and Salaverry. Marquardt and Salaverry are great fighters but after further thought, I felt that Silva deserved to be ranked ahead of them. Loiseau will need to perform well against Mike Swick to retain his spot in a very talented division.
Welterweight (156-170 lbs.)
1. Matt Hughes
2. Georges St. Pierre
3. Diego Sanchez
4. BJ Penn
5. Karo Parisyan
6. Jake Shields
7. Jon Fitch
8. Josh Burkman
9. Drew Fickett
10. Josh Koscheck
Notes: Only two changes to the 170 lb. rankings in August: Jason Black dropping out of the top ten and Koscheck joining the list. Black suffered what was kind of a freak loss to Shonie Carter recently, ending his undefeated record. Then, after a win over Eoh Won Jin of all people, he lost his second Pride Bushido bout to Shinya Aoki. Aoki is a pretty good fighter, but the loss is still a very disappointing one. Meanwhile, Koscheck has recently shown some standup ability to complement his impeccable wrestling skills. If he continues to hone his standup and learn submission defense, he can undoubtedly become a force in the welterweight division. It will be interesting to see what unfolds in the next several months, as a gauntlet of competitors (3 of which are in the top 5, one of which will be determined in TUF 4) awaits UFC Champion Matt Hughes. Hughes-Penn will be a great fight and give Hughes the chance to exorcise some demons.
Notes: Of all the divisions, easily the hardest to rank. You could honestly put any one of about 20-25 fighters in one of these slots and make a fair argument for it. Everybody basically moved up a slot as I took Kid Yamamoto out of the rankings while he takes a break for MMA to train for the Olympics. If he does well enough to make it, it will be a few years before he fights again, so I would rather have an active fighter make the list in his stead. Aurelio debuts in my top ten, as after further thought, even with the disappointing decision loss to Ishida, he has done enough to deserve the spot. Ishida is actually one to watch as he just picked up another win, although against a far-less accomplished opponent than Aurelio. Kawajiri moves up after a predictable win over Chris Brennan in quick fashion, and ditto with Franca after he weathered the storm and got an impressive submission on Jamie Varner. A lot of fighters could have gotten the 10th spot, but I still feel that Spencer Fisher is the sleeper of the UFC LW division and will surprise a lot of people. Interesting that neither of the competitors for the vacant UFC LW title are represented. I will rank Sean Sherk once he's fought at the weight, and Kenny Florian hasn't done near enough to warrant a spot in such a tough division filled with established fighters. To be honest, anyone who ranks Florian in the top 5 needs their head checked.
Reader E-Mail
First off is Craig, who wins the award for "First Person to Tell Me I Forgot About Pride This Weekend".
Love your articles, but i fail to see how September will be a quiet month with not only UFC 63 but also the finals of Pride's Open Weight GP. The latter alone includes Silva vs. Cro Cop and Barnett vs. Nogueira. That will be a massive event and on paper is a whole lot more action packed than UFC 63.
*sigh* Yes, I know. Not a quiet month at all. People are really sleeping on the UFC 63 card, I tell you. Sure, the Pride event has more top ten fighters involved, but the UFC card is right up there as far as good matchups go.
RT concurs that the Pride PPV will be the shizzle:
Jon, I think the open weight GP has the potential to be the greatest PPV ever. Cro Cop vs. Silva is possibly the most exciting match up you could assemble, as these two will look to finish quick as to minimize the amount of potential damage and keep themselves as close to good fighting condition as possible.
Barnett vs. Nog is a submission fighters wet dream, Barnett is incredible but Nog is the second best heavyweight in the world and is just a little bit better at everything. However Ricco, was able to control Nog quite well using his size and sub defense. If Barnett could come up with something similar while staying busier he might pull off the decision. But I dont see it happening. Nog will win the GP, he is by far the most durable fighter in the game and that will be the difference.
Nishijima vs. Cyborg will be awesome as they both have incredible chins and great stand up. Cyborge vs. Manhoef was a fight of the year candidate as was Nishijima vs. Hunt. Aleks vs. Sergei will be a barn burner as they will stand and trade. The biggest angle here is that they are both coming off losses and could still potentially find themselves in the OWGP final if one of the semi-finalists can't continue and that should be more than enough to get these two beasts fired up!
UFC can't compare with this kind of card. Should Pride ever end up on a better network it would definitely become player in the North American MMA market. Im fucking stoked for this shit. Theres the run down sorry about the length but when ya get rolling you get rolling.
I'm in no position to criticize someone else for being long-winded.
That's pretty solid analysis, although I don't know that Silva and Cro Cop will set the kind of pace RT predicts. The "get him out of the way, move on" mentality was more of an old school UFC tourney school of thought, back when guys were fighting bums every round. I don't think either Silva or Cro Cop will make the mistake of trying to get the other one finished quickly. I could also see Barnett following (to an extent) the Ricco Rodriquez blueprint, although to be fair, Ricco's strategy was just a poor man's Fedor Emelianenko approach. The match was basically what would happen if Fedor and Nog fought, but Fedor had the punching power of an adolescent girl.
Cyborg/Manhoef was a great fight, indeed. In fact, I'll be mentioning that in another paragraph or two.
You lost me with the "UFC can't compare with this kind of card". In a way, you're right. Pride only puts on 6-8 pay-per-views a year, not counting Bushido. Compare that with the UFC's number of events. If the UFC could take all of their talent and only have to fill 6-8 cards a year, they would put on some outstanding shows. Look...UFC fighters fight 3-4 times a year, so on a Pride PPV schedule, the UFC's top guys would fight approximately every other event if healthy. That means we could conceivably see, say, Liddell-Tito, Franklin-Silva, Penn-St. Pierre, Vera-Mir, Sanchez-Parisyan, etc. all on the same card. To compare the kind of lineups Pride puts together with the UFC's isn't really fair, because Pride puts on far less shows and their talent isn't spread thin by a busy schedule.
Random MMA YouTube Moment
This week, we're watching Cyborg vs. Manhoef in Cage Rage 15, which took place in February of this year. The fight is highly regarded to be one of the best of the year, so be sure to check it out. Manhoef in particular is someone who I've thought of ranking and has awesome standup.
