The Thursday Throwdown 10.13.06: UFC 64 Preview
Posted by Jon Hartley on 10.13.2006
Not one, but two titles are on the line at UFC 64, and 411's Jon Hartley is here with a full preview of those as well as the other matches on the card! Also, thoughts on UFC Fight Night 7, K-1, and Takanori Gomi's next title defense!
After a one-week absence, I'm back to brighten up your day with a little MMA discussion. Behold...The UFC 64 preview. *here's where the triumphant horns and trumpets play to emphasize the greatness of The Throwdown*
Without further ado, let's get into it, beginning with our two title matches and working down to the 2+2'ers. Predictions will be done in HAIKU FORMAT!!!!!! Yeah, that's right.
Middleweight Championship--Rich Franklin vs. Anderson Silva
This is a great matchup, marred only by the UFC's insistence on giving title shots to fighters their fan base is largely unfamiliar with. Don't get me wrong, I'm pumped for this fight. However, the average UFC fan has no idea how big this fight is. Two top ten middleweights, and the toughest fight in Rich Franklin's career to date. Whether this one remains standing or hits the ground, it promises to be a compelling and action-packed bout. The question is, why should Joe UFC Fan care? I mean, if you're unfamiliar with Anderson Silva's pre-UFC career, all you've seen him do is destroy Chris Leben. Now, Chris is a good fighter and Silva had an impressive showing that night, but I don't think it was enough to truly get the fans behind this fight. What would have been so wrong with matching Silva up with a second fight before getting a title shot? The problem is that the UFC had (and has) no other contenders for the title and had no place to go. That's what happens when you're not working enough at building top contenders in each weight class...it forces you to put together matchups long before they've been truly anticipated by your fan base. It's the match-making equivalent of having to throw together a term paper overnight because you didn't handle your research and do your rough drafts weeks before, when you should have.
But promoting aside, it's tough to predict how this one will go. After all, both men have the skill and the resume to prove that they can finish opponents quickly, but at the same time, they are evenly-matched and depending on the aggression level set by each man, it could be a long night after all. Silva, for the uninitiated, is a standup specialist who nonetheless has a pretty good grappling resume, with a BJJ black belt and all. However, he has been submitted before, so it's hard to say that ground fighting is a true strength for him. Meanwhile, Franklin does it all. He's a jack of all trades, and it's hard to label him as a certain type of fighter. He doesn't have the polished standup that Silva has, but his standup is good enough that he can survive should the fight not hit the ground. The one thing we haven't seen much of is Franklin on his back, and this fight will not change that as Silva doesn't have what it takes to take the fight to the mat consistently (nor would he probably want to). Franklin's superior game-planning and all-world conditioning give him the edge here.
Prediction--
There's a "Silva" who
I would pick to beat Franklin,
but not Anderson
Lightweight Championship--Sean Sherk vs. Kenny Florian
And no, I won't call him "KenFlo". Seriously, can we find a different nickname-generator than lazily sticking a letter/syllable from the first name and combining it with one from the last?
Anyway, this is a highly-anticipated bout maybe more because it signifies a long-term commitment to the lightweight division than because of the actual matchup. I am excited to see Sean Sherk fight, he is a true class act and it's hard to think of anyone else more deserving of success in the UFC. This is a guy who literally could NOT find anyone to fight him half the time and yet wasn't getting the attention he deserved from the Big Two (UFC and Pride, of course). Luckily, after hanging up the gloves for a short time, he decided to come back to the sport and despite a nightmare of a loss to Georges St. Pierre, the UFC is still looking to get behind him.
Don't get me wrong, I don't think Sherk and Kenny Florian were the two guys to choose to compete for the vacant title. It's Sherk's first fight at the weight, he's only won one UFC bout in a row and Florian is still largely unproven in the UFC. Florian is a fighter who is supposed to have great ground skills, but we've yet to see evidence of them. He has submitted two opponents in a row in the UFC, but they were Sam Stout and Kit Cope--both tough guys, but definitely not ground wizards. Meanwhile, his overall record is just 4-2 and while other TUF alums pile up wins without title opportunities (Diego Sanchez, Mike Swick, anyone?), he beats two standup fighters by submission and gets a title shot? Hmmm...
Regardless, this will jump start the division and whoever wins, they will have a long list of contenders ready to stake their claim for the belt. Who will win, you ask? Come on now...before you ask me such a question, give me a scenario under which Kenny Florian defeats Sean Sherk. That's right, you can't. No, shut up in the back row, I don't want to hear it. Florian has a chance to build a solid career in MMA and has improved tenfold, but there is simply no way that he beats Sherk. Sherk is a monster at 170 or 155, and has not shown himself in the past to be susceptible to submissions or knockouts. I'm not even that convinced that Diego Sanchez would beat Sherk, and look what he did to Florian! I know, apples and oranges, but the fact is that Sherk's game isn't that much different, and we will likely see a very similar fight.
The only reasonable argument that Florian backers have come up with to justify Kenny winning is that Sherk hasn't fought at the weight before, and how-my-God-how-can-such-a-jacked-up-dude-cut-even-more-weight??? I don't think it will be a problem. Sherk was a guest on Sherdog's Beatdown radio show, and said that he was actually too small to be a welterweight in the first place. Sherk says that he was eating 4,000 calories daily to maintain the weight, and to cut to lightweight he only needed to eat a normal amount of food instead of gorging to Butterbean-esque levels. He's already done two practice cuts, which went well, and judging from his comments, he's not taking Florian as lightly as someone like myself would in his position. There go the only two possible arguments for a Florian win- troubles cutting weight and Sherk underestimating him.
Prediction--
Sorry Boston, and
Florian fans, but it's Sherk
by MURDERDEATHKILL
Jon Fitch vs. Kuniyoshi Hironaka
Wait, Casual Fan! Don't stop reading! That's right, Jon Fitch, despite his status as Preliminary Fighter (tm), is well worth knowing. He's cracked many a welterweight top ten and deservedly so, finishing Thiago Alves and Josh Burkman in his last two UFC fights. So yeah, you may not have heard of Fitch, or maybe don't remember him, but don't buy into the UFC's short-sighted preliminary bout choices...this guy is worthy of the main card. Fitch, a former Purdue wrestler, is a tough test for any welterweight right now, and I expect him to seize this opportunity to show MMA fans what he's capable of.
Meanwhile, Kuniyoshi Hironaka is a tough Japanese competitor with a Judo and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu background and ten wins against just two losses. More impressively, one of his losses was in just his third pro fight (over four years ago) and his only other loss was due to a cut vs. Shinya Aoki. I haven't seen Hironaka fight, so it's hard for me to analyze this very accurately...however, as this fight will most undoubtedly see the mat with Fitch on top, I only see Hironaka winning if he's able to submit Fitch. Fitch, however, has not proven to be very susceptible to submissions and should be able to pound out a tough decision at least, further advancing his name into the long list of contenders for Matt Hughes's title.
Prediction--
Don't you know Jon Fitch?
Another good welterweight
wins by decision
Cheick Kongo vs. Carmelo Marrero
Easy fight for the marketable heavyweight to further establish him as a threat to Tim Sylvia? Maybe not. After all, Carmelo Marrero is a ground fighter who looks to utilize ground-and-pound in his fights, and Cheick Kongo's ground game is definitely the weakest of his abilities. But how good is Marrero on the ground, anyway? Well, um...that's the thing. I have no idea. Marrero's five wins (out of five fights) were in Reality Fighting, Mix Fight Championships, and Cage Fury Fighting Championships against such esteemed competitors as Chris Dippolito. So really, who knows? Does the UFC make these matchups (and put them on the main card) simply to "put over" rising talent, or are they attempting to frustrate potential gamblers as well?
The fighter we do know (compared to Marrero, at least) is Kongo, the physically imposing Frenchman (oxymoron, I know) with a 9-2-1 record to this point. Kongo hasn't faced the toughest competition thus far, but has done well and let's face it, he's not facing a top guy this weekend either, so it's not exactly uncharted territory for him. He has shown good standup skills and great knees from the clinch, both of which I'm sure we'll see early and often in his fight on Saturday.
Prediction--
Kongo versus who?!?!
Oh, I guess Kongo by strikes.
Why the hell not, right?
Spencer Fisher vs. Dan Lauzon
This is a good candidate for fight of the night, along with the Middleweight Championship bout. Spencer Fisher is a fighter who fans should be knowledgeable of now, who always puts on an exciting show and may just be the best lightweight in the Miletich camp. With great standup and solid ground skills, Fisher has made his mark in the lightweight division while finishing nearly all of his opponents...Fisher's only decision win was years ago against his now-teammate Josh Neer. Meanwhile, the UFC has a nice little grudge match going here as Dan Lauzon's older brother Joe just knocked out Fisher's teammate Jens Pulver to spoil his UFC return (and break many MFS fans' hearts in the process). Fisher now has the opportunity to get a measure of revenge (perhaps setting up a match with Joe Lauzon?) and put his name in the hat for a Lightweight Title shot. Fisher appeared lost in the shuffle when Pulver announced his return, as Jens was certainly higher on the ladder as the former LW champ and the teammates will not fight one another. Now, with Pulver coming off a loss, Fisher could leapfrog ahead of him into title contention with an impressive win. I expect Fisher to do so, as Lauzon is a young guy who has only been training four years and has just a few fights under his belt. Spencer Fisher is a veteran who will take advantage of any mistakes Lauzon makes, and I have no doubt that there will be a few.
Prediction--
MFS versus
the Lauzons! Fisher
ties it at one-one.
Preliminary Bouts
No, I'm not writing haikus for preliminary bouts. Maybe because I'm not sure whether "TUF" should be counted as one syllable or three? Is it "tough" or "T-U-F"? Or maybe that's just an excuse, because I don't feel like breaking down the prelims for you. Picking a winner in a "barnburner" between Mike Nickels and Keith Jardine is not the most exciting thing, you know (oh, okay, Jardine by TKO). I am interested in seeing Kurt Pellegrino and Clay Guida, though.
Quick Thoughts
--After watching UFC Fight Night 7, I'm left with a lot of thoughts, one of which is "why are we being forced to watch Matt Hamill develop into a real fighter?" Hamill is a good wrestler (although his shots looked slow during the fight against Seth Petruzelli), but he has no other skills to mention and is nowhere near being a serious contender. There were several times where Petruzelli could have knocked Hamill out had he been a little more aggressive and seized the moment. Hamill may one day be a great fighter and may one day be a well-rounded one, but that day is not coming for awhile, so why are we watching him fight instead of Top 10 Middleweight Nathan Marquardt? And then the UFC will wonder why buyrates for Franklin-Marquardt will be underwhelming.
--Ken Shamrock is retired...or at least that's what the UFC wants you to believe. The truth is they are simply pushing him out the door as he has now put over half the UFC roster and they have nothing left to do with him. And that's fine. There are a few good fights left for Ken in the IFL or WFA if he so chooses (and I think he will). As far as the fight with Tito Ortiz goes, what did you expect? More interesting were the post-fight happenings, with Ortiz being completely classless, as usual, and then doing a complete 180 after Shamrock swallowed his own pride to end things on a nice note. Incredibly, after they made up, Goldberg and Rogan continually put over the maturity of Ortiz, as if he's changed or improved as a sportsman. Ha! Ortiz was a complete jerk after the fight, flipping Shamrock off as if TKOing him three times wasn't enough to satisfy his disdain for the man. Then, after apparently making up with Shamrock, he donned a t-shirt proudly claiming that he "retired" Shamrock, even mentioning that fans can buy their own shirts on the internet. Yeah...that Tito Ortiz has really changed, alright.
Incredibly, some folks have completely ignored Tito's childish actions and focused on Shamrock trying to bridge their gap by saying "we've made a lot of money together". Apparently, that shows that Shamrock only cares about the money and wasn't in the fight to win it. Huh? Sometimes I think a certain percentage of MMA fans have been guzzling paint thinner on a regular basis. Acknowledging that their mutual dislike has made them both wealthy men is in no way a tasteless or offensive statement. How is it that fans continually bitch about the UFC's payscale, then complain when Shamrock talks about having made good money?
--So those of you who believe that Marcus Aurelio is underrated will get the chance to rub it in, should he defeat Takanori Gomi a second time at Pride:Bushido 13. Gomi will this time be putting his title on the line, which means that Aurelio had to beat Gomi once just to earn a title shot, and will have to beat him a second time in a row to actually win the title. I suppose if he wins, Gomi will get a return match? Then Aurelio will have had to beat him three times to gain and keep the title. I'm just illustrating exactly how idiotic the idea of non-title matches is. When you're a champion, your title should be on the line every time you fight. That's what being a champion is all about. Now, with Gomi having lost to Aurelio, and Aurelio subsequently losing himself, Pride has put themselves in quite a situation.
--Diego Sanchez will be fighting Joe "Diesel" Riggs in December as he awaits his welterweight title shot in the UFC. This is a pretty good matchup, as Riggs is an exciting fighter who presents a decent challenge to Sanchez without probably derailing the UFC's plans too much. I'm sure Riggs will be greatly anticipating the chance to put a blemish on the record of the undefeated golden boy and throw a monkey wrench in the UFC's welterweight title picture. Riggs has sometimes failed to perform as he should, but I think he is less likely to be unprepared when he is in the role of underdog.
--In other happenings, Gesias "JZ" Calvancanti has made his mark in a big way after winning the K-1 Hero's tourney recently, and will likely find himself as a Top 10 fighter in most rankings, finally getting some credit in the deepest division in mixed martial arts......Wes Sims finally picked up a win against a "name" opponent; unluckily for him, the opponent was disgraced former UFC fighter Kimo Leopoldo......the IFL has kept the big announcements coming, as Carlos Newton will take on Renzo Gracie in the December World Team Championships. Gracie is, of course, coming off his quick submission win over Pat Miletich......
