411's UFC 66 Preview: Liddell vs. Ortiz II
Posted by Sam Caplan on 12.28.2006
'Tis the seating to be fighting? With major mixed martial arts cards scheduled for December 29, 30, and 31st, 2006 promises to go out with a bang. The most watched card of the three will likely be UFC 66, scheduled for this Saturday. 411Mania.com's Sam Caplan has a full preview with his picks to win.
What: UFC 66
When: Saturday, December 30, 2006.
Where: MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Chuck Liddell vs. Tito Ortiz for Liddell's Light Heavyweight Title:
These two first fought in April of 2004, with Liddell winning convincingly via a second round knockout. At the time the two were supposedly ex-friends who had a parting of the ways and were going to settle their grudge in the Octagon. For this bout there isn't as thick of a storyline with the exception of Ortiz whining about an incidental eye poke in their first meeting. But there isn't much need for synthetic hype since Saturday's PPV could very well be the first in the history of MMA to top 1 million buys. If that's the case then you can expect many mainstream media outlets to start devoting more coverage to mixed martial arts in 2007.
As for what I expect in this fight, there's no need to drag this out, as I believe Liddell will defeat Ortiz in a decisive manner once again.
I don't know how to come out and say this other than Tito doesn't like to get hit. You might be saying, "Who likes to get hit?" Well, there might be a few sadistic people out there who like it but for the most part nobody likes to get punched. However, I would say that the vast majority of professional MMA fighters out there don't mind getting hit anywhere near as much as Tito minds it.
Also, let's face it, what's changed with these two fighters since they last fought? Ortiz is more than capable but is not the same fighter he was when he was at the top of the MMA World following his first win over Ken Shamrock. Since the first fight with Liddell all Tito has on his resume are unimpressive wins over Shamrock and Vitor Belfort and a suspect decision victory over Forrest Griffin from earlier this year.
Meanwhile, Liddell is on top of his game. He's mastered the ability to throw powerful punches from unorthodox angles and arm slot positions and land them with a high success rate. Don't get me wrong, Liddell is definitely not a fighter without weaknesses. His conditioning is usually a question mark in most of his fights but never gets exposed because Liddell's fights usually don't last long. In Liddell's five fights since last fighting Ortiz, only once did the fight go past the second round (against Jeremy Horn at UFC 54). If you're looking for the last time a fight involving Liddell went to a decision then you'd have to go all the way back to 2002.
Aside from conditioning, Liddell's other weakness is his lack of a ground game. The UFC is usually quick to tout Liddell's amateur wrestling background while he was going to college at San Luis Obispo. However, that was years ago. Doing some wrestling in college and being able to execute great wrestling technique at the highest level of competitive sport fighting are two separate things. If Tito were to execute a takedown and get Chuck on his back, Liddell wouldn't be defenseless but he'd still be in a bad spot. And getting Chuck on his back is imperative because it's the only I can picture Ortiz winning this fight.
Tito has to fight a different fight than the last time he fought Liddell. But that's easier said than done. What can he do? Try to exploit Chuck's lack of conditioning by not engaging and trying dance around? Such a strategy wouldn't be effective because Chuck is a patient fighter that won't waste energy chasing someone. He'll just hang back and wait for an opening like he did vs. Horn. Ortiz could completely abandon the standup game by trying to get the fight to the ground right out of the gate. Again, easier said then done. Good luck beating Liddell's takedown defense, which rates amongst the best in the business. Tito simply is going to have to stand and trade punches with Chuck in order to set up a takedown. Unfortunately, by engaging Chuck he then provides Liddell with the small opening he needs to pound Ortiz into oblivion.
Look for Liddell to try and prevent Ortiz from exposing his lack of conditioning by going for the knockout early. I expect Liddell to land a barrage of shots towards the end of the first round and for Ortiz to get TKO'd for not intelligently defending himself.
Andrei Arlovski vs. Marcio "Pe de Pano" Cruz
Arlovski is the Rich Franklin of the UFC Heavyweight division; a former champion and poster boy looking to get back on the right track. "The Pitbull" lost the Heavyweight Title at UFC 59 this past April when he was knocked out by Tim Sylvia. The two fought in a rematch at UFC 61 in a boring bout in which both fought not to lose. Arlovski lost via decision, which sent his stock spiraling downward.
Many pundits claim that Arlovski has a weak chin. I'm not ready to agree with them on that point but even if he does, it won't come into play against Cruz unless he connects with a lucky strike. There aren't many heavyweight fighters in the World with better Jiu Jitsu than Cruz, who defeated Frank Mir in an upset at UFC 57 this past February but followed it up by dropping a decision to Jeff Monson at UFC 59.
Arlovski's primary concern is preventing the fight from going to the ground. While he has a solid ground game, he's overrated by many in that area. He has recorded a few impressive submission victories in the UFC but they were usually preceded by a big strike to the head. Simply put, Arlovski is not in Cruz's league when it comes to the ground game.
Cruz cannot afford to stand with Arlovski. His poor striking skills were not exposed by Mir and Monson because neither has much of a standup game. Arlovski is a big hitter who is going to look for an early knockout so he can regain some of the momentum he's lost in the past year. I'm predicting a second round knockout by Arlovski.
Forrest Griffin vs. Keith Jardine
You're looking at what promises to be the fight of the night. Both guys can throw a punch while also being able to take one, or two, or three.
In addition to being a good fight to watch this is also a good fight to bet. Griffin opened up as such a heavy favorite that Jardine is worth betting on since the money line is so favorable. That doesn't mean I think he'll win. Quite the contrary as I expect Griffin to win via a split decision in a war that will have both fighters' faces resembling hamburger meat.
Michael Bisping vs. Eric Schafer
Bisping has not fought since winning the light heavyweight division of "The Ultimate Fighter 4." He hasn't fought in so long that an entire season of "The Ultimate Fighter" was recorded and aired since his TKO victory over Josh Haynes last June.
Bisping was scheduled to fight twice prior to UFC 66 but the first fight was called off due to injury and the second was called off due to visa issues. He's a crowd favorite and a fighter that the UFC has a great interest in. As such, Bisping will quickly climb the light heavyweight ladder if he can defeat Schafer this Saturday.
Defeating Schafer shouldn't be too hard so long as Bisping is in good condition. Schafer is capable, as he won in his UFC debut this past August at UFC 62 when he defeated Rob MacDonald via an arm triangle. However, he's nowhere near as good an athlete as Bisping, who is on a completely different level as a fighter.
I expect Bisping to win the fight in the second round with the fight being stopped due to strikes.
Chris Leben vs. Jason MacDonald
This fight was originally scheduled to be a preliminary bout but was moved up on the card after several other fights were moved to other dates. I'm thankful it's been moved up because this has a chance to be the second best fight of the night.
Leben will look to avenge fellow Team Quest member Ed Herman's upset loss to MacDonald at UFC Fight Night 7. Herman was the heavy favorite but lost in the first round after getting caught in a triangle choke.
MacDonald is great on the ground with 15 of his 17 victories coming via submission. His standup isn't bad but with just one knockout to his credit he has no business trying to slug it out with Leben.
MacDonald's nickname is "The Athlete," making him the antithesis of Leben, who is one of the hardest punchers in the UFC middleweight division but is not athletic in the slightest. Leben can not only deliver a punch but he can also take it.
Look for MacDonald to show respect for Leben's knockout ability by trying to avoid engaging him, instead putting almost all of his focus into getting the fight to the ground. This fight could go either way but my money is on Leben winning via a second round knockout.
Preliminary Bouts:
Yushin Okami vs. Rory Singer – Okami is a dangerous fighter who already has two UFC wins to his credit and holds wins outside of the UFC against Nick Thompson and Anderson Silva. Singer's wrestling is solid but it's not going to be enough to save him from losing against Okami.
Thiago Alves vs. Tony DeSouza – This will be a classic striker vs. grappler matchup with Alves playing the part of striker and DeSouza playing the role of grappler. Alves is capable but has not performed well against a higher echelon fighters such as Jon Fitch and Spencer Fisher. Both Fitch and Fisher were superior strikers, which won't be the case with DeSouza on Saturday. DeSouza must get the fight to the ground if he has any chance of winning. I don't have high expectations for this fight but if I have to pick a winner, I'll go with Alves via decision.
Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Carmelo Marrero – Marrero shocked a lot of people with his upset victory over Cheick Kongo at UFC 64 but will have his work cut out for him this weekend. Unlike Kongo, Gonzaga has a great ground game. Marrero's wrestling is outstanding but against another fighter who is capable on the ground you'll see his size disadvantage exposed. I expect Gonzaga to win via decision with Marrero dropping down to light heavyweight following the fight.
Anthony Perosh vs. Christian Wellisch - This will be a heated contest with both fighters coming off losses. Both Perosh and Wellisch not only need to win but they need to win in impressive fashion if they hope to remain in the UFC. Look for Wellisch to push the pace and win via decision.
Sam Caplan is a Philadelphia-based sports talk show host and freelance sportswriter. He's also an amateur mixed martial artist (and we do mean amateur) who trains out of the Mixed Martial Arts Academy of Philadelphia. Sam can be reached via e-mail at SCaplan8@comcast.net or you can check out his blog at: caplanmma.blogspot.com
