411 MMA Fact or Fiction 08.04.07
Posted by Michael Huckaby on 08.04.2007
Could WEC WW champ Carlos Condit beat UFC WW champ Matt Serra? Are steroids a major issue in MMA? Will Fedor Emelianenko sign with the UFC by the end of the year? All of this and more in the latest 411 MMA Fact or Fiction.
And welcome back to yet another edition of 411 MMA Fact or Fiction. Thank you for sticking out the dry spell with us, this isn't exactly easy when there are no UFC or PRIDE cards for a month and a half. "Shut up and get on with it." Alright.
My guest this week is Punch Drunk Love writer and our official steroid expert, Bren Oliver. He will have a tough task this week and he'll be going up against me.
On with it!
1. Steroids are a large problem in mixed martial arts.
Oliver: FICTION. This response shouldn't be a surprise to anyone who read my "Eight Sides to a Story" commentary on steroid use in MMA. Steroids are definitely an issue in MMA, as they are in EVERY sport from the high school level to the professional ranks, but to say it's a "large" one is an overstatement. We're talking about a VERY small percentage of guys who have been caught in comparison to the number of Mixed Martial Arts events taking place on any given weekend. I think the use of street drugs (cocaine and marijuana specifically) is a bigger issue in MMA than illicit substances of a performance enhancement nature, but athletes smoking dope isn't as sexy a story as the media's favorite S-Word so don't expect to see too many stories on the subject.
Huckaby: FICTION. For future reference, the "media's favorite S-Word" is sex. Agreed on the point, and since you pretty much hit the nail on the head, I'm going to run with the street drugs. Why were so many people upset when Nick Diaz had to forfeit his win against Gomi due to the marijuana on his drug test? Is it just teenage potheads wanting to support weed? You know full well the Sherdog forums are filled with 15-year-olds that want to use it as an opportunity to talk about their personal experiences doing drugs to show how super awesome and unique they are. Was it UFC fans wanting to prove how much PRIDE sucks? I wish they would take all of the victories away from fighters found with illegal substances in their body. If I get caught with heroin in my system after a great presentation at a business meeting it really doesn't matter how great the speech was, they're going to focus on the heroin. I shouldn't get the promotion and accolades I normally would if I played by the rules. Either that or they'd tell me to do more heroin.
Score: 1 for 1.
2. Paulo Filho will finish Joe Doerksen in their WEC middleweight title bout on Sunday.
Oliver: FACT. This question works well since half of Filho's wins have come via decision and half via a finish. Doerksen is also no slouch on the ground where the Brazilian tends to do his best work, but he (Doerksen) seems to struggle when facing fighters who are of a "next level" nature. His record shows lots of wins over bottomfeeders, with a peppering of mid-tier UFC guys like Cote and Herman, but every time he's faced a guy who possesses a hint of eliteness he fails. The only way I see this going to decision is if Filho starts slow as a result of pressure, whether resulting from his WEC debut, gold being involved, or even the mere fact he'll be favored to win.
Huckaby: FACT. Man, I was torn. Plus we're not sure if Filho is going to have the killer instinct and want to get a message across to the WEC and Zuffa or if he just wants to not lose by any means necessary. You have to admit, most of these guys coming over haven't looked like gold in their first fight. Be it nerves or poor opponent choices, it is what it is. I think there is roughly a 49% chance it goes to decision but that leaves 51%. 50% goes to Filho stopping him and 1% always goes to a Holyfield/Bowe-like parachuter landing in the middle of the cage. "But the event is indoors," you say all smarmy. Don't get smart.
Oliver: FACT Now, will it turn out to BE the best in series history? I guess we'll find out in a month-and-a-half. But on paper this sucker is in the vein of UFC 73 (i.e. "stacked"). It's the kind of card that tempts me to order UFC's service streaming the undercard live for subscribers. Every fight interests me and offers a lot of potential which is pretty rare for any event featuring nine bouts, let alone a card being broadcast for free on Spike TV. I think Cole Miller vs. Leonard Garcia could be a war, something quickly becoming a trademark of the UFC's Lightweight Division. I think Crocota vs. Cummo will be full of action, as should be Alves vs. Hironaka, and I dig the Quarry vs. Sell fight because of the sheisty finish to their first encounter in the UFC. If you don't remember it, Sell got knocked down and before taking any real damage the referee ended the fight. It's also Quarry's return to the Octagon after a twenty-month layoff due to injuries said to potentially be career-ending at one point. And that's just the undercard! Martin vs. Leben is a vicious knockout waiting to happen, Nate Diaz steps into the ring to prove he deserves the title of "The Ultimate Fighter", Mike Swick returns against veteran Jonathan Goulet, and Din Thomas has a chance to cement himself as a top contender in the 155 lbs. division, possibly earning a chance to avenge his highlight reel knockout at the hands (actually knee) of BJ Penn, by taking on another upper-tier Lightweight in the form of Spencer Fisher. I know I might sound like a UFC hype package but the card truly is as good as advertised.
Huckaby: FACT. Uh oh, three for three. I love this card. Even the five fight undercard is better than a majority of UFC PPV undercards. You add Franklin/Okami as the main event and this is easily better than the UFC 72 card that featured that fight. Of course this card could have been slightly better had Chris Leben accepted the fight with Mike Swick. That can't make Joe or Dana happy as they like Leben because he's a guy that likes to fight. Suddenly it's looking like that confidence he used to show was just arrogance that has now been lost with a few defeats to superior fighters. "I don't want to fight a guy I've beaten before because I might lose" doesn't scream "confidence".
Score: 3 for 3. Could we have back-to-back perfect weeks?
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4. Should Sherk be stripped of the belt, the winner of Spencer Fisher and Din Thomas deserves a spot in the vacant title fight.
Huckaby: FACT. I was torn but I look at it like this, it's hard to disagree with Fisher being there if he wins so if Din Thomas beats him why wouldn't he be worthy? Thomas is undefeated since his comeback and while a few other names might come to the top of your head I have to imagine Roger Huerta (among others) isn't yet ready. Don't get me wrong, if BJ Penn stays in the fight he's going to beat anyone they put him in there with, but the winner of this fight deserves the chance to get that loss.
Oliver: FICTION. I wouldn't have any problem with either man fighting BJ Penn for the UFC Lightweight Championship, but my feeling is Joe Stevenson deserves the shot if he defeats Kurt Pellegrino at UFC 74. I think he'll have earned it and is the better move from a business standpoint compared to Thomas or Fisher. Stevenson is young, extremely talented, and is most definitely a more recognizable fighter to the average fan than either of the 9/19 Fight Night main eventers due to his having won the Ultimate Fighter.
Score: 3 for 4, damn you and your well thought out logic.
5. Fedor Emelianenko will sign with the UFC before the end of the year.
Huckaby: FICTION. Fedor's manager has already stated that UFC is the most lucrative offer on the table.... but they're still unwilling to sign. I believe they've stated that they want to do sambo competitions in Russia and UFC has a firm no-compete clause for combat sports. On top of that, Emelianenko has also stated that he wanted the UFC (should he sign there) to try and put on a show or two in Russia, something that they're not willing to do at this time. I don't really think anyone is in the wrong here but Fedor certainly isn't. He wants to fight and compete in his home country and he wants to continue doing his sambo. The UFC has shown in the past they're not usually willing to budge but Fedor isn't a struggling fighter needing a chance, he has plenty of opportunities. I think it can happen but it will be down the line. I just hope that by then it hasn't been too long between bouts with top competition, then a single loss would cause a vast majority of idiot MMA fanbase to go the "see he wasn't that good" route. And we all know they'd be wrong but they wouldn't think they were, and that's all that matters. We all know dumb people are usually the loudest. I'd hope if the deal isn't signed by the end of 2007 that he finds a way to fight Josh Barnett somewhere to atleast keep the juices flowing.
Oliver: FICTION. Huck has the right idea, though I'm holding out a little faith we might get an announcement on a late December card. Fedor clearly doesn't care about money and I don't think White is ready to throw anything too insane at ANY fighter. How can the UFC performances of Cro Cop and Big Nog not be weighing on Dana's mind every time he thinks about making a concession for Emelianenko? And frankly I think Fedor needs the UFC more than the UFC needs him. If Fedor, the top fighter in the world, can only face the best Bodog or EliteXC can offer him, how long can we really consider him to be the supreme being of MMA? And what happens in the event Fedor falls to a sub-par opponent? If Fedor truly is that rare athlete who does not care about accolades then he'll be a journeyman who gets to occasionally fight in his home country. But, if cementing his legacy means anything to him, he'd be a fool not to find a way to sign with the UFC.
Score: 4 for 5. This isn't directed at you but in general. How does Fedor need to fight in the UFC to "cement his legacy"? He doesn't need to for me and he doesn't need to for alot of fans. In fact MMA is alot more popular in Japan and he'd fight in front of 80,000 people at times, so how does coming to the States and battling in front of 14,000 people in Vegas "cement his legacy"? That's like a Russian message board ripping Wayne Gretzky because he never played in the Russian Super League to "cement his legacy".
I haven't done this before but I read Mike Farrow's column and it draws a parallel with this. He briefly discussed ShoXC keeping King of the Cage and Strikeforce as they were, basically making their coverage like Showtime boxing. This differs to the UFC who seem to be in a world alone and even nixed a deal with HBO because they wanted their own announcers. I just found this to be another neat niche in the competition that I hadn't really thought about.
6. WEC welterweight champion Carlos Condit could defeat UFC welterweight champion Matt Serra.
Huckaby: FACT. I originally put fiction but then I wasn't sure what I meant by "could". Of course he COULD so I have to put fact. If you think this statement is silly think back to what you would have said prior to Serra's victory over GSP. Condit is a legit top 10 ranked WW, Serra was unranked. Despite my "FACT" answer I think if these guys met 10 times that Serra would win 6 of them, I wouldn't bet on it but that's my feeling. I got a few emails last week just trashing me for my Serra "joke" and knocking me for a lack of respect. I do respect Matt Serra and I hope he beats Matt Hughes, I just don't think having the belt makes him the best.
Oliver: FACT. Amazing the difference a "W" makes, and I don't mean in terms of a UFC Welterweight victory, but in the case of could vs. would. COULD Condit beat Serra? Of course. WOULD he? I think there's a fairly good chance. The thing is, Serra is a top class jiujitsu guy and the type of fighter it's hard to root against, but I have to go on what I've seen. His knock out of St. Pierre has been discussed ad nauseum. Prior to it though he eeked out a few decisions over guys who should have been far beneath his level (if he's as advertised). Condit has more than twice the wins and the same number of losses. He tapped out Frank Trigg in 2006 and took Jake Shields to a decision on the same card! Ironically enough both Serra and Condit are facing superb wrestlers in their upcoming title bouts (Matt Hughes and Brock Larson) so it will be interesting to see how each man handles a similar opponent. I must add that I'm a little concerned Huck. You've confused yourself with your own statement, one which you could have edited prior to presentation. I think I need to shoot Armando Garcia of the CSAC an email to let him know a new round of drug testing is in order.
Score: 5 for 6. Armando Garcia would suspend me because he's never seen cartwheel guard writing before.
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Join us next week when two other writers will be discussing the WEC results (Sunday night on Versus), new UFC rumored fights, and maybe even why my electric bill was so expensive this month for no apparent reason. I said it was a slow month.
