The MMA News Report 08.22.07
Posted by Morgan Marx on 08.22.2007
Both The Axe Murderer and The Truth return, GSP changes camps, and a full rundown of the UFC 74 main card. I’m getting off the bandwagon of one superstar. Find out if it’s St-Pierre or Couture I think is taking the loss.
INTRODUCTION
We're back with an in-depth look at the main card for UFC 74, airing this Saturday night. I hope you're all excited for a card that may be lacking multiple stars, but has real depth characteristic of the new UFC. There's been a lot of buzz about the Georges St-Pierre v. Josh Koscheck fight, and I'm interested to see if you all agree with my thoughts on how the fight will turn out. Let's get to it.
MAILBAG/RANT TIME
Last week's questioned generated a bunch of responses Let's check out a few. First up is the succinct Matt:
I believe any champion should automatically be given the #1 spot in any rankings.
Emphatically said, but not particularly well defended. Longtime reader and frequent emailer Jamie rebuts:
I don't think that a reigning champ should necessarily be ranked number one. Couture should not be ranked in the top two simply because he is the champ. He has only beaten one top ten, and zero top five heavyweights in recent years, and therefore should be ranked below Gonzaga.
Jamie makes some great, well-supported points as usual. While Matt Serra makes an easy target when debating rankings, Randy Couture offers an equally unique position. I think Jamie hits the nail on the head, as most rankings seem to place Gonzaga slightly ahead of Couture in the top 10. However, Gonzaga himself only has one top 10 victory to his name, albeit a spectacular one.
Jamie also adds this conundrum:
Serra is tougher to rank. He has beaten GSP, who beat Hughes. Koz lost to Fickett, but beat Diego, Karo has lost to Diego, and recently beaten no one of note, except Serra. This creates a situation where no one is without a major win to argue for or a major loss to argue against.
Well said. These debates don't have a true answer. Like arguments over college football rankings and NFL power polls, there are cases to be made for each of the fighters. Josh sums things up pretty well:
In conclusion, Serra is not #1, but definitely top 10. Luckily, top 10's don't mean jack as they are just a way for MMA fan boys to debate and kill time in these doldrums before we (finally) have a feast of events to watch.
That's pretty much it. With 6 weeks between UFC PPVs we've had a lot of time to argue about where fighters stand in the rankings. Now, the next few months should sort out a lot of these debates.
I'm going for the obvious this week for the question I put to you, the readers. I've spent a lot of time writing about Georges St-Pierre and Josh Koscheck, and I'm interested to know what the fans think.
The Reader's Question: Who will win this Saturday's fight between Georges St-Pierre and Josh Koscheck and why?
NEWS
It's Official: Wanderlei to Return in December
Finally, we can draw the curtain on one of the longer running stories in MMA over the past few years. Wanderlei Silva has ended speculation about his future by signing an official multi-fight contract with the UFC, agreeing to fight in the octagon for the first time since 2000. The long rumored superbout with Chuck Liddell looks to be only months away.
I don't think anyone can be certain what kind of a fighter the UFC is getting in Silva. While only 31 years of age (I was literally surprised when I remembered how young Wanderlei actually is), Silva has looked a step slower in recent losses to Mirko Filipovic and Dan Henderson. Though a superstar in Japan, Silva will be largely unknown to US audiences. And unlike charismatic stars like Quinton Jackson and Michael Bisping, Silva is not a marketing firm's dream. He has average command of the English language (at best), and I think his persona ("The Axe Murderer") will be a tough sell for a sport trying to go legitimate.
But I don't want to come off as a negative commentator. Silva's signing is good for both MMA and the UFC. The contract is rumored to be for 6 fights. The potential match-ups (Silva v. Liddell, Silva v. Jackson, maybe even Silva v. Rua though I doubt that one) will all be main event worthy. Silva had fought 8 times over two years, but recently has had longer stretches of rest to recover from the beating his body took. If Wanderlei can recapture the ability and fighting sprit that made him one of the sports biggest draws (arguably the biggest), fans should be in for a treat.
Though no date/opponent has been set, the UFC has intimated that Silva will appear on the year's final card in December. The timing seems to suggest that Silva will get at least one fight before facing off against Liddell. Expect the UFC to pair Silva with a second tier light heavyweight, someone willing to trade strikes. The last thing the UFC would want is for their new prize acquisition to lose against a wrestler a la Heath Herring. So don't expect a match-up against a Rashad Evans. I think a fight versus someone like Stephan Bonnar is more likely.
Brandon Vera to Return Against Former Heavyweight Champion
Unfortunately for us, that heavyweight isn't Andrei Arlovski. Instead, Vera will get his shot at Tim Sylvia, the fighter Vera was originally set to face with the championship belt on the line before contract negotiations muddled the waters. Vera and Sylvia will square off at UFC 77 in Cincinnati, Ohio. The event is headlined by the middleweight rematch between Anderson Silva and Rich Franklin.
The fight has both pros and cons for Vera. On the positive side, a dominant win against the former champ would propel Vera back into the title hunt. Sylvia has clearly looked like a much different fighter in his last three outings. Gone is the physically imposing striker with KO potential, replaced by a plodding, conservative man easily thrown off his game. Injury woes have likely hindered Sylvia, and a bout with staph infection won't help. After the first round knockdown that changed the complexion of the Couture fight, it's fair to question the strength of Sylvia's chin.
However, this fight is by no means a gimmie for Vera. Vera is not a large heavyweight, and could in fact cut to 205. Sylvia will be the largest heavyweight Vera has fought in the UFC and his size could present a variety of challenges. Hopefully, the fight brings out the best in both fighters. A driven Sylvia can beat any heavyweight in the world with his size and reach. Vera posses an amazing array of skills that could make him one of the most complete MMA fighters ever. Whichever fighter wins will have their sights set on the Cro Cops and Nogueiras as well as whoever holds the heavyweight title.
Just days before his welterweight contender fight against Josh Koscheck, reports have confirmed that Georges St-Pierre has officially joined Greg Jackson's MMA team based out of Albuquerque, New Mexico. St-Pierre has parted ways with former trainer Victor Vargotsky, though GSP has been primarily known as a nomadic fighter who has trained with multiple camps from around North America. Jackson trains some of the best up and coming fighters in MMA (Evans, Jardine, Marquardt), though his camp has been hit with a series of upsets.
This move interests me for three reasons. The first I mentioned in the introductory paragraph. A lot has been made of St-Pierre's tendency to train for short periods of time with a variety of camps. One of the side issues in the whole Matt Serra fiasco was that GSP would likely not be asked to train with Renzo Gracie again. Though GSP has said he is one good terms with members of Gracie's team, he has admitted there was a conflict of interest. Training with one group might add stability to St-Pierre's fight preparation and help reduce some of those kinds of distractions.
The second interesting factor involves St-Pierre's controversial "mental state." Check out last week's column for more on that debacle. Greg Jackson is portrayed as one of the more interesting figures in MMA. He seems like an extremely well educated Renaissance man, well versed in a variety of topics beyond the fight game. If there's a coach out there who can help St-Pierre shore up his perceived mental lapses it is Jackson. Combining Jackson's vigorous mental training with the help St-Pierre has received from visiting a sports psychologist, St-Pierre should be able to put questions about his mental durability behind him.
The final interesting bit is perhaps the most obvious. Jackson has recently spent a large amount of time preparing a fighter for Koscheck's last outing. Though Jackson's fighter, Diego Sanchez, lost a decision, the trainer probably has a wealth of material that will help St-Pierre avoid making similar mistakes. I wouldn't be surprised if Jackson's role in Koscheck's last fight was a big selling point of his camp.
It's been 6 weeks since the UFC last promoted a major card, and I couldn't be more excited for a PPV. While more MMA on TV is always a good thing, sometimes the UFC can oversaturate the market by presenting 2 or 3 cards a month (when you add in Fight Nights and TUF Finales. UFC 74 has a great card on paper, though many are quibbling with the fight order to be shown on the actually broadcast. Personally, I would rather see fighters like Aurelio and Guida on the main card than 1-4 Patrick Cote, but I understand why the UFC has chosen the particular fights scheduled for the main card. Here's a look at the main portion of the card, complete with typically awful predictions. Don't forget to check out 411's full roundtable for a complete breakdown of all the fights scheduled for Saturday night.
UFC 73 Main Card Patrick Cote v. Kendall Grove: Much like fellow TUF winners Diego Sanchez and Michael Bisping, the UFC seems to be slowly building up Kendall Grove as a genuine middleweight threat. Instead of throwing him to the wolves and pushing him into a match he isn't ready for (hello Nate Quarry), Grove has been fed a steady diet of decent challengers who shouldn't trouble Grove too much. The danger for Grove is the shock upset that would derail his momentum. However, Patrick Cote is not the man to upset Kendall Grove. While Cote should be commended for his willingness to take on all comers, the fact remains that he's simply not that good. While he can out-strike raw fighters like Scott Smith, Cote didn't have a prayer against a jiu jitsu talent like Travis Lutter. Grove may not be in the same league as Lutter, but he has more than enough submission skills to deal quickly with Cote. Expect a brief flurry of stand-up, followed by Grove methodically working for the choke. Prediction: Grove by submission.
Kurt Pellegrino v. Joe Stevenson: Other than the Marcus Aurelio v. Clay Guida fight, this match-up could end up being one of the most entertaining of the night. With the lightweight tile picture up in the air as we await a decision on Sean Sherk, the winner of this fight could end up with an immediate title shot or as the number one contender somewhere down the road. Neither fighter is known as a stand-up artist, though both are competent on their feet. On the mat, Stevenson is known as a dominant wrestler and Pellegrino is known for his jiu jitsu game, though both are cross talented. Pellegrino has been wrestling for over 20 years and was a state finalist in New Jersey in high school. Meanwhile, Stevenson has shown an evolving submission game that finished both Melvin Guillard and Mishima.
The fight should come down to whether Pellegrino can deal with Stevenson's strength. If Stevenson is able to dominate position on top, I wouldn't be surprised I he wins via ground and pound. However, Pellegrino hung tough with Drew Fickett before losing in the 3rd round. Fickett is a very large 170 (Fickett could easily fight at 185), so Pellegrino should be used to a weight disadvantage. I think Pellegrino's wrestling will be better than Stevenson's submission attempts. Prediction: Pellegrino by Unanimous Decision.
Josh Koscheck v. Georges St-Pierre: I think there has been far more debate about this fight than the heavyweight title match that serves as the true main event. St-Pierre is a polarizing figure in the UFC at this point, with some fans still riding the wave of hype that swept him to the title and others bailing at the first sign of St-Pierre being overrated. If you read me last week, you probably know where I stand on things.
I think St-Pierre holds the advantage in every area of the fight other than pure wrestling ability. The dumbest thing I've heard recently is that "Koscheck only needs one take down to win the fight." Let's ignore the fact that similar things were said for both Monson v. Sylvia and Lutter v. Silva and didn't come true. St-Pierre has already shown the ability to handle wrestling stars like Matt Hughes and Frank Trigg. While Koscheck might have a more decorated collegiate record than either, is his wrestling that much better in terms of MMA than Matt Hughes? I doubt it.
Even if Koscheck can secure a take down (and it's a big if, Hughes couldn't catch St-Pierre in their last fight), St-Pierre should be able to escape and regain his feet, look for strikes and submissions from the bottom, or simply reverse position like he did to Trigg. Diego Sanchez easily shucked Koscheck from top position at the end of the first round in their fight. If Koscheck is desperate to shoot for a takedown from outside, St-Pierre will tear him apart with a variety of strikes. And unless St-Pierre is suffering from some debilitating infection that we fans are unaware of, Koscheck is not going to be able to out point St-Pierre with a lazy jab and some awkward head movement.
While everyone is focusing on St-Pierre's mental state, no one is talking about Koscheck's. This will easily be the biggest fight in his MMA career, and while he has a history of big wrestling matches, I think it's safe to say none came with as much pressure as this MMA fight. While St-Pierre has fought all the top contenders and been tested time and time again, Koscheck skipped a step or two by defeating a sick Sanchez. I think St-Pierre will have a much easier time with Koscheck than people are anticipating. Prediction: St-Pierre by TKO.
Roger Huerta v. Alberto Crane: Another Roger Huerta fight, and another UFC newcomer with a gaudy record. Alberto Crane has yet to be defeated, has won 7 of his 8 fights by submission, and could be the next big thing in MMA. However, it's more likely that he's another decent competitor that might trouble Huerta for a little bit before getting stopped. I don't understand why, with the depth that exists at lightweight, Huerta is being fed decent newcomers instead of a proven UFC competitor like Frankie Edgar or Tyson Griffin. Huerta, with his size and strength advantage, should be able to handle a submission expert. Prediction: Huerta by TKO.
Hearvyweight Championship Fight: Randy Couture (c) v. Gabriel Gonzaga: This is a very difficult fight to pick, for all the obvious reasons. Couture has the edge in experience and wrestling, Gonzaga in size and submissions. We don't know how Gonzaga will respond if the fight hits rounds 4 or 5, and we don't know if Couture has corrected whatever issues he had with larger heavyweights like Barnett and Rodriguez. We don't know if Gonzaga is the next big thing, or if he was lucky against Filipovic. And we don't know when age will finally catch up to Couture.
It seems like Couture is a chic pick. Many are basing their decision on the Joe Rogan-esque "I'm never betting against that guy again" line of thinking. I guess I'll be the hold out. As impressive as Couture's victory over Tim Sylvia was, it's not like he was in there against a dominant heavyweight. He was facing an injured, doubt riddled shell of a fighter. Gonzaga will be everything Sylvia wasn't: hungry, willing to trade, full of confidence.
Couture himself said that he thought his skill set matched up better against Cro Cop. I do think it will be a competitive fight, but I think Gonzaga has more ways to win than Couture does. And I'm really bothered by Couture's extracurricular activities. Couture has spread himself thin between his MMA team, his public appearances, and his film roles. The fact that Couture begins filming a major motion picture (well, if you consider another Mummy prequel a major motion picture)in October bothers me. I think Couture will always have the ability to put together a perfect game plan and topple an opponent. But I think Gonzaga is the one awaiting matches against the likes of Vera and Minotauro. Prediction: Gonzaga by TKO.
CONCLUSION
Enjoy Saturday's show. Let me know what you think of my predictions, how you think the matches will go, or what you think of the fights after the fact. I'll be back next week with a full recap, as well as a rundown of all the other news stories making the rounds. Take care and keep reading.
