411's UFC 76: Knockout Roudtable Preview
Posted by Caleb Newby on 09.21.2007
Chuck Liddell is on his way to reclaim his title from Rampage, and Keith Jardine is in his way. PRIDE superstar and top ranked light-heavyweight Mauricio "Shogun" Rua makes his long awaited UFC debut against the ever popular Forrest Griffin, while Diego Sanchez and Jon Fitch face off in what could be the fight of the night. Who wins and why? Check out 411's full roundtable preview to have all your questions answered!
WHO ARE ALL OF THESE NEW PEOPLE IN THE ROUNDTABLE?!
You must be asking yourself that (or will be shortly as you scroll down). Well, they are the newest additions to 411mania's talented roster of MMA pundits and you can see their work throughout the week. Feel free to let them (or me) know if you found their words particularly insightful or idiotic. I am sure we want to know either way.
As for the fights, is anyone else as excited as I am to see Shogun make his debut in the UFC? Speaking of, a few of the guys actually went with the Forrest upset. Proof that they care zero for so called "net cred" should they be wrong. Beyond that Fitch and Sanchez should put on a great show for us in what is bound to be an exciting fight.
Let's get to it!
Matt Wiman vs. Michihiro Omigawa
Chris Cosme: Yoshida Dojo member Michihiro Omigawa makes his UFC debut against TUF/UFC veteran fighter Matt Wiman. This fight is really a clash of styles as Wiman loves the takedown whereas Omigawa loves to strike. Four of Omigawa's wins have by KO and submission. He too has decent striking but utlizes his judo background to ground and pound his way to his two KO victories. As for Wiman, has been strong since competing on TUF with his latest victory coming by KO against Brian Geraghty at the TUF finale earlier this year. Look for Wiman to keep it on the feet to stay honest and take Omigawa to the ground. He should impose his will on the ground en route to victory. Winner:: Matt Wiman by Unanimous Decision
Randy Harrison: Omigawa comes from Yoshida Dojo so you know he's going to have great throws and takedowns and he's coming into this one on a three fight winning streak. Wiman comes in off of a win as well, but he's been spotty in his last five fights only going 2-3. Wiman's going to want to stand and strike because he probably won't be able to handle Omigawa on the ground. I definitely think that Wiman can use his superior striking to keep Omigawa off balance and eventually finish him. Winner: Matt Wiman - TKO - Rd2
Leland Roling: Matt's first stint after beating Brian Geraghty at the TUF 5 Finale, I'm looking forward to seeing what kind of improvements he's made. He has some very good striking skills and it looks like they will be pitting him against Omigawa. Omigawa brings back fond memories of the time he got pasted in :49 seconds by Gesias Calvancanti, current K-1 Hero's Middleweight Champion. Don't be fooled though, Omigawa has some knockout power as well, and he's had some bad luck in his draws for fighters. Aaron Riley, "JZ" Calvancanti, and Kazunori Yokota are not exactly "gimme" fights. This should be a slugfest, but I'm going to give it to Matt Wiman based on the fact that many DEEP competitors like Omigawa haven't shown the skill to compete in higher organizations. Wiman looks to have more power as well, finishing fights quicker. Winner:Wiman via 1st round KO.
Mike Farrow: Michihiro Omigawa is another of those odd Japanese signings that the UFC are currently in the habit of making. While large amounts of top level Japanese talent are allowed to walk into K-1, UFC sign a DEEP-level fighter. Wiman looks like a fashion model and thus will have a job for life in the sometime-homoerotic world of MMA; a world where "he's a good looking guy and he's in great shape" is not a gay thing to say at all. Maybe I am being cynical but I don't think that Omigawa's judo expertise will be a match for a guy who is going to set out to ground and pound you. As a result, I foresee Wiman winning. Winner: Matt Wiman, TKO, round 1
Morgan Marx: Omigawa is another Yoshida aligned judo fighter. Wiman has good jiu jitsu and, though he lost his fight with Spencer Fisher, showed that he can take a punch (just not a flying knee). Wherever the fight ends up, Wiman should have the advantage. Winner: Matt Wiman (TKO, Rd 1)
Dustin James: I remember seeing Omigawa in PRIDE a few years ago, but it's been along time since I've seen him fight. Wiman on the other hand, I remember distinctively as Gabe's girlfriend on TUF 5. How he didn't just say fuck the show and knock Gabe out is beyond me. However, Wiman's got this one. Winner: Wiman - TKO - Round 3
Josh Hachat: I've got two lasting thoughts with Wiman and neither one is good. The first is the flying knee he ate from Spencer Fisher, while the second was a touch more disheartening. In his loss to Manny Gamburyan on TUF 5, he looked like the will to fight was totally sucked from him. He looked tentative and like he wanted to crawl into a hole good if you're a hobbit; bad if you're a fighter. But, for some reason, I like Wiman and want to see him succeed. He's got a good personality and a strong skill set, and I think he's ready to make a move. It will start against Omigawa. Winner: Wiman
Bren Oliver: "Handsome" Matt Wiman is a solid fighter when he's not busy protecting his face. I think he has a ton of potential. Omigawa is a veteran of the DEEP organization who specializes in Judo. I'm picking him to upset Wiman based purely on aggression and techinical skill. Omigawa shouldn't have too much difficulty taking the TUF 5 alumnus down where I think he'll eventually pound him out. Winner: Michihiro Omigawa - TKO - Rd2
Diego Saraiva vs. Jeremy Stephens
Chris Cosme: Both guys fighting in this lightweight matchups are looking for their first win inside the octagon. Saraiva is coming off two decision losses to Jorge Gurgel and Dustin Hazelett, where as Stephens went to war with Din Thomas until he was caught in an armbar at UFC 71. Saraiva is a black belt in BJJ, and will look to take this fight to the ground. For Stephens, his clear advantage is on the feet where he has KO'd seven of his opponents en route to a 9-2 record. The thing to watch out for in this fight is purely that Stephens' two losses were by way of submission. So the advantage there could go to Saraiva. In the end, I see Stephens defending the takedown attempts of Saraiva and finishing the fight on the feet. Saraiva is too small for the weight class and will show in this fight. Hopefully a move to the WEC would do good for him. Winner:: Stephens by TKO - Rd 2
Randy Harrison: Stephens impressed enough people with his performance against Din Thomas at UFC 71 to be brought back for this fight against Diego Saraiva. Stephens has pretty heavy hands and he's been able to stop almost all of his opponents with strikes early in fights. Saraiva seems to have a pretty good chin as he's never been knocked out but he's also 0-2 in the UFC and doesn't look like he's able to handle the step up in skill level at the upper echelon of the sport. Winner:Jeremy Stephens - TKO - Rd3
Leland Roling: Diego is a straight submission fighter who can go the distance, but mainly relies on his submission skills to win him bouts. He's lost 5 bouts, all by decision, but won 8 of his 9 wins via submission. Stephens, on the other hand, is 9-2 with straight knockout power. A classic matchup between the submission and the knockout is in place here. I'm going to pick Stephens over Saravia since he does possess the knockout power and I don't think Diego's ground game is good enough to catch Stephens sleeping. Winner: Stephens KO
Mike Farrow: To state the absolute obvious, both fighters need a win here. I thought Jeremy Stephens was unlucky to come up against Din Thomas when he did and entered a commendable performance. Diego Saraiva is drinking in last chance saloon after losses to Jorge Gurgel and Dustin Hazelett where he showed his durability but didn't have the chance to showcase any dominance. If Saraiva loses, it's back to Wild Bill's Fight Night, which isn't the worst place to be to get your swing back, as Marcus Davis would attest. Stephens is likely to get another crack with a good showing here and, as a result, I think the pressure is off for him and this makes him the more likely winner. Winner: Jeremy Stephens, round 2, TKO
Morgan Marx: Having dropped two close decisions to BJJ experts, Saraiva might be relieved he's fighting someone not known as a ground ace. Granted, the downside of taking on Jeremy Stephens would be a quick TKO loss. I wasn't quite as impressed with Stephens as so many others were. I think Stephens comes out strong, puts Saraiva down, and then gets caught in a submission, much like in his fight with Din Thomas. Saraiva should be looking to avoid striking with Stephens at all costs. Winner: Diego Saraiva (Submission, Rd 2)
Dustin James: Last time I saw Jeremy Stephens he was becoming Din Thomas' bitch. However, I have not been impressed by Diego's run in the UFC thus far. His 0-2 record is one that needs to be improved upon greatly. Either way, not looking forward to this fight. Winner:Stephens - Decision
Josh Hachat: Stephens showed me a lot against Din Thomas at UFC 71, nearly catching the veteran after he was battered in the first few minutes. He's an exciting fighter who doesn't back down and that automatically gives you points in my book. He's won since the loss to Thomas and Saraiva isn't a slouch, losing to Jorge Gurgel and Dustin Hazelett in the UFC. But I think Stephens is simply a better fighter and he'll come out better in the first round with those UFC nerves out of the way. He'll control the first round and put it away with a submission minutes later. Winner: Stephens
Bren Oliver: This should be an entertaining fight, as most seem to be in the Lightweight division, and each man is looking for his first UFC win. I think Stephens is the superior talent and he fought well in his UFC debut against Din Thomas. Saraiva is solid on the ground, and Stephens' two losses have come via submission, but I ultimately think he'll be able to outscore Saraiva on the judges' card and come away with the win. Winner: Jeremy Stephens - Judges' Decision
Christian Wellisch vs. Scott Junk
Chris Cosme: This is will be a slug fest. Junk, making his UFC debut is a real unknown to me. Most of his fights have been in Hawaii, compiling a 6-1 record with most of those wins by KO. Wellisch has a 1-1 record in the UFC. Losing by TKO to Cheick Kongo and a decision win over Anthony Perosh in a three round war at UFC 66. This fight like I said, will be a slug fest. I would be surprised if this fight goes to the judges. Winner:: Junk by KO - Rd 2
Randy Harrison: The fight that was supposed to be Wellisch against McCully but due to injury becomes Scott Junk's big opportunity. He's riding high with a six fight win streak but it obviously comes against questionable competition. Wellisch is back for his first fight in almost nine months and ring rust could come into play. If Wellisch can avoid the trap of the long layoff, this night should easily belong to him but there's always that small chance of a Houston Alexander-like upset. Winner:Christian Wellisch - TKO - Rd2
Leland Roling: This is supposed to be an easy fight to pick since Junk was placed into this bout, but Junk is a 6'1", 265 lbs. guy. Wellisch will probably come in at almost 30 pounds lighter than Junk. This creates a dilemma in determining who can really win this fight. I'm going to pick Wellisch because I've actually seen Junk's crazy decision making skills in some K-1 fights. I remember him trying to kick someone and getting punched in the temple. A 265 lbs. guy trying to kick someone is like watching slow motion replay, trust me, it isn't landing on anyone. Winner: Wellisch by TKO/KO in 1st round.
Mike Farrow: "Gah, who are these people?", I hear you cry. Well don't worry, I have no idea either. Well, I do but I was being empathetic. To be honest, this seems a strange bout to have on an undercard of a pay-per-view when the awesome-looking bout between Leonard Garcia and Cole Miller is on the undercard of a Fight Night. Junk and Wellisch
have nothing looking records and I honestly have nothing more to say about the fight than Wellisch has beaten marginally better guys. Winner: Christian Wellisch, decision.
Morgan Marx: This is another case in which the replacement fighter might prove to be a bigger challenge than the original. Scott Junk is big (265, assuming he makes weight), powerful (4 wins by TKO/KO), and unafraid (he claims to not know anything about Wellisch). He has decent experience, coming from Hawaii and the Rumble on the Rock organization, and should be able to make the transition to the UFC. While Junk probably isn't as technical a striker as Chiek Kongo, Wellisch will have to be careful. Large strikers have overwhelmed him in the past, it could happen again. Winner: Scott Junk (TKO, Rd 1)
Dustin James: Ya! The UFC debut of Scott Junk! This is a big guy. 6'1, 265 pounds with a beer gut. There's no way I'm rooting against my fine fat friend. Plus, Junk is 6-1 in his MMA career. But he's 124-0 against Whoppers. Winner:: Junk - TKO - Round 1
Josh Hachat: Well, Junk has a cool last name, which is about the extent of how much I've researched this fight. This fight is nothing more than filler to set the tone for what hopefully is a great night of fights. Wellisch has had a decent UFC career, but Junk is a big guy riding a nice win streak. None of the wins is against noteworthy foes, but he's big, I'm sure he hits like a truck and he's my pick. Hey, I never claimed to be a rocket scientist people. Winner: Junk
Bren Oliver: Apparently the UFC decided to replaced a garbage fighter (Justin McCulley) with Junk. I'm not sure what gym Scott Junk trains out of but I have a feeling it may be the same one as Ricco Rodriguez and Tank Abbott, or so his potbelly would imply. Wellisch is a serviceable fighter who should be able to use his skills, and Octagon experience, to his advantage. Winner: Christian Wellisch - TKO - Rd1
Rich Clementi vs. Anthony Johnson
Chris Cosme: Bursting on the scene, Anthony Johnson will look to get his second win in the UFC against UFC vet Rich Clementi. Johnson is coming off a spectacular KO win over Chad Reiner at the TUF 5 Finale earlier this year. Clementi, a TUF 4 alum will look to notch another win since his last appearance against Ross Pointon at the TUF 4 finale. We all know Johnson will look for the KO but we do not know where he is skill wise on the ground. Look for Clementi to take Johnson down at will. Winner:: Clementi by Unanimous Decision
Randy Harrison: The last-minute addition of this fight to the card made me very happy. Not so much because it should be an excellent fight but more because now I won't be screwed out of seeing an undercard fight and I won't be cursing out the MMA gods demanding the money I spent on my ticket back. Johnson is undefeated thus far in his career and already has some Octagon experience fighting on the undercard of the last UFN, so there should be no jitters from him. Clementi is a good fighter, he's just not a great fighter and his career for the past two years has been unable to garner any momentum. Johnson either ends his fights lickety-split or he goes to a decision so I think in this case I'll split the difference. Winner:Anthony Johnson - TKO - Rd2
Leland Roling: Johnson impressed us with his :13 second bomb knockout win over Chad Reiner at UFC Fight Night 10. Now, the UFC throws the tested veteran, Rich Clementi, at him. This is an interesting bout. Johnson is powerful, but hasn't had enough fights to really justify whether or not he's legitimately a great standup fighter. I'm going to take Johnson by KO in the 1st or 2nd round. I'm basing it on the fact that Clementi just hasn't been spectacular in his bouts. Johnson is going to have so much power and strength, I think he'll overwhelm Clementi. Winner: Johnson - KO
Mike Farrow: Having guys who have hardly fought in their career puts people like me at a disadvantage. What could I have possibly learned from Johnson's 13 second knockout of Chad Reiner? I'll tell you, nothing. At least with Rich "Thrush" Clementi I can tell you that he has struggled throughout his career to establish himself because he's caught between a rock and a hard place. The cut to 155 is very hard but he's too small to stay at 170. I could rant about how 15lbs is too big for a weight class, especially when it represents 10-13% of your body weight or how the 20lb jump from 185 to 205 is absolutely the stupidest thing ever. I really could rant but I'm supposed to be talking about Johnson/Clementi. Is this a case of a fighter on the way up against a fighter on the way down or a case of the wily veteran catching the overmatched young fighter. I have no idea but I'm not a fan of Clementi so I'm pulling for a Johnson KO. Winner: Anthony Johnson, KO, round 1.
Morgan Marx: Assuming Clementi got the message (Don't stand and trade with Johnson! He's 6'2" and you're only 5'9". Take him down!), Clementi can submit the younger Johnson. Clementi is not nearly good enough to trouble the top 10 lightweights, but his jiu jitsu and experience is enough to trump a still-green newcomer. Winner: Rich Clementi (Submission, Rd 1)
Dustin James: I've only seen Johnson fight once, but I've seen Clementi a few times. Instinct tells me to pick Clementi, but I that's why I never listen to instinct. Johnson is undefeated in his MMA career and needs this win in order to keep himself on PPV and establish a name for himself. Winner:: Johnson - Decision
Josh Hachat: This is a very solid undercard fight, especially considering it came at the last minute when the Jason Lambert-Wilson Gouveia fight was called off. I'm excited to see Johnson again, which means he obviously did something if I'm wanting more after just 14 seconds. He blitzed his way past Chad Reiner in June, and he looks devastating in a Houston Alexander-esque way. Clementi is a solid step up for an opponent, but there's no way I see the veteran winning unless this fight goes deep in the third round and he catches a winded Johnson napping. But there's no way I see this fight lasting that long, mostly because Johnson is going to catch Clementi early. Someone will test the newcomer soon it's just not going to be Clementi. Winner: Johnson
Bren Oliver: Clementi isn't necessarily an impressive fighter, but he's got a lot more experience than Johnson and I think it will play to his advantage. Johnson is 1-0 in the UFC but his first fight lasted less than twenty seconds. I don't think he'll be as lucky come Saturday night. I believe he will be the agressor, but Clementi is versed enough to handle the initial onslaught. I see something like a Guillotine off of Johnson's shoot ending the fight. Winner: Rich Clementi - Submission - Rd1
Tyson Griffin vs. Thiago Tavares
Chris Cosme: Ladies and Gentlemen, this one has Fight of the Night written all over it. This is literally, a fight where the winner is one more fight away from a title shot. I mean when has Tyson Griffin not been in an exciting fight? His wars with Frankie Edgar and Clay Guida is a testament to how enjoyable it is to watch Griffin fight. But he really has his work cut out for him against American Top Team standout, Thiago Tavares. Tavares is just a Brazilian Submission Machine, with ten of his thirteen wins coming by submission. Along with his 13-0 mark, he is also undefeated in the UFC. It's the classic Grappler vs Wrestler matchup. Tyson must respect Tavares' ground game if it goes to the mat. It would be wise to keep him against the fence to prevent Tavares to look for any submissions. One thing is for sure is that Griffin has the striking advantage. If he keeps this fight standing, he could pull off the victory. If Tavares has Griffin where he wants it, a submission victory is what will happen. But don't count out Griffin in this fight. It's toss up for me. Winner:: Tavares by Unanimous Decision
Randy Harrison: This should be a great fight, not only because the lightweight fights always bring the action, but because these are two accomplished fighters locking horns. Griffin has a stellar 9-1 record and has wins over Duane "Bang" Ludwig and Urijah Faber to his credit. Not to be outdone is Tavares who is sporting a perfect 13-0 record and is 2-0 in his UFC career. Griffin will want to find a way to keep this fight standing as Tavares has a host of submissions in his arsenal and seemingly has no trouble in getting his opponents to make the mistake that dooms them. I can't see Griffin as being able to hold his own well enough on the ground to fend off the Brazilian and I think Tavares will be getting his hand raised after a relatively short night's work. Winner: Thiago Tavares - Submission - Rd1
Leland Roling: I think Griffin's lack of fighting a great submission ground fighter is going to be his Achilles Heel in this bout. Tavares hasn't fought some of the competition that Griffin has battled, but the competition that Griffin has battled was mainly standup fighters or bad fighters. Tavares has some world class ground tactics, and I'm going to go for a stretch and pick Thiago Winner: Tavares to win by 2nd round submission.
Mike Farrow: This may sound almost sacreligious but I'm really not sure how good Tyson Griffin is, especially against smart fighters. The loss to Frankie Edgar really exposed a chink in his armour. Taveres has a decent record but Griffin goes in favourite to defeat him. I'm not sure if Tavares is ready for the power. Winner: Tyson Griffin, decision.
Morgan Marx: The quartet of Griffin-Tavares-Guida-Edgar is so evenly matched, I think any of the four could beat the others. On this night, I think the slight edge goes to Tavares. Though the two men share similar abilities on their feet and in the wrestling game, Tavares has an edge in jiu jitsu. This means that while Griffin looks really uncomfortable on his back, Tavares can still win a fight from the bottom. I think it will be another high quality lightweight match, with numerous transitions and back and forth action. Eventually, Tavares might get a shot at sinking in a submission. Winner: Thiago Tavares (Submission, Rd 3)
Dustin James: This could very well be the fight of the night. Griffin is an animal, and Thiago is a killer. I'm at odds at who to pick here. Damn you UFC! Winner: Tavares - Triangle Choke - Round 3
Josh Hachat: This is the fight of the night and I know I can't be wrong on this one. Griffin is a big, strong guy whose put on two thrilling fights against Frankie Edgar and Clay Guida. He lost against Edgar, but I thought he lost against Guida as well. He never lets up, but there's nothing about him that tells me he's going to finish Tavares. Tavares is a mini-Belfort, but I don't mean recent Belfort, but rather pre-TUF Belfort. He's lightning in a bottle and he's got fighter jet speed when he's slapping on submissions. Sure, he's a tad cocky, but it translates well to his game. He might not be stronger than Griffin, but he'll use his speed to find the right spot to put Griffin away. Winner: Tavares
Bren Oliver: This bout has the potential to do what the 155 lbs. division does so well - offer up a "Fight of the Year" candidate. Tavares and Griffin are both exceptionally skilled. This is the first time the Brazilian, Tavares, will fight an opponent the caliber of the man who will be standing across the ring from him at UFC 76. Griffin on the other hand has wins over Clay Guida, Duane Ludwig, and even current WEC Feathweight Champion Urijah Faber. I believe Griffin's strength and conditioning will ultimately give him the win. Winner: Griffin - Judges' Decision
Kazuhiro Nakamura vs. Lyoto Machida
Chris Cosme: I am excited that PRIDE standout Kazuhiro Nakamura is making his UFC debut this Saturday night. He is battle-tested with a respectable 11-6 mark while in PRIDE. His list of fights is basically a who's who of former PRIDE stars: Wanderlei Silva, Josh Barnett, Dan Henderson, Shogun Rua...you get the point! He does have notable wins over Murilo Bustamante and Kevin Randleman. He is a very great acquisition for the UFC in the stacked UFC Light Heavyweight Division. He has another tough fight against Lyoto Machida. Known as the only man to KO Rich Franklin before Anderson Silva did a nose job number on Franklin, Machida is an unorthodox fighter with great hands and good ground game. He has yet to be defeated and will look to add Nakamura to his list of fallen opponents. Striking is Machida's bread and butter here folks. Nakamura is one of the better GNP fighters in the LHW division. I see Nakamura look to strike early and then look for the takedown. Winner:: Nakamura by Unanimous Decision
Randy Harrison: Nakamura has always been a personal favorite of mine since he told Wanderlei Silva to "shut the fuck up" and I will be glad to see him make his debut in the UFC. That being said, he faces an incredibly talented fighter in Lyoto Machida who has picked apart everyone he has fought with surgical precision. Machida favors fighting as a counter-puncher, using both punches and kicks extremely well and Nakamura will be trying to use his judo background to take Machida down to the mat and work a little ground and pound or try to squeeze a submission. The pin-point striking of Machida will be able to keep Nakamura from getting in close to attempt any takedowns, but it won't be enough to get a KO against a game opponent. A long technical fight that hopefully the crowd won't turn on. Winner:Lyoto "Ryoto, no wait Lyoto, umm I think it's Ryoto" Machida - Unanimous Decision
Leland Roling: Look at Nakamura's record. He's 11-6, but those six losses are to "Little Nog", Wanderlei Silva, "Shogun" Rua, Josh Barnett, and Dan Henderson. He's actually beaten "Cyborg" Santos and Kevin Randleman, which is fairly impressive for a Judo fighter. Avoiding onslaughts from two huge aggressors is a definite plus. Machida is 10-0 out of Brazil, and unimpressively boasts 6 decisions. To be perfectly honest, a decision against Sam Hoger and David Heath really isn't perking my interest in picking Machida to keep his run going. Nakamura isn't exactly an easy win. Nakamura does have some pretty good standup skills, although he loops punches at times. He's also terrific in the clinch since Judo is a great skill to counter takedown attempts. Machida has some great range and kicking ability as well as revered standup skills. I see this going to decision and Machida coming out on top due to his range advantage. Winner: Machida - Decision
Mike Farrow: In a card full of strange Japanese signings, Nakamura represents a higher level of ability and reputation than the rest. However, I can't help but think that Nakamura is in for a rude awakening here. Nakamura, while durable and skilled, is clearly not a top class fighter, fitting in somewhere around the second tier. This doesn't take into account the "entry difficulties" some Japanese fighters experience when they enter the US scene, with heavy weight-cutting more prevalent. A stocky 5'8", somebody of Nakamura's frame might even fight as low as 170 in the US, especially when you consider the UFC's middleweight division regularly features fighters 8" taller than him. Machida is sneaky, crafty and tough and, as a result, I can't see anything but a victory for the taller and rangier fighter. Winner: Lyoto Machida, decision.
Morgan Marx: Machida gets one more chance to show he's something more than a boring, conservative, decision fighter. As talented as Machida might be, his lack of US exposure and his fighting style will cripple his title shot ambitions. Nakamura is nothing more than a B level fighter, incapable of hanging with the elite light heavyweights. It's a step up in competition for Machida, but it's another fight he is expected to win. If he does so in impressive fashion, Machida might book himself a match with a top 5 fighter. Winner: Lyoto Machida (TKO, Rd 2)
Dustin James: DAMN! The undefeated Machida, vs. the guy who took Shogun to a decision in his last PRIDE fight. For my first round table, the UFC definitely didn't make it an easy one. I could see this one going to a decision and that's really about it. Winner: Machida - Decision
Josh Hachat: I see so much from Machida, but he's left me begging for more in recent fights. He's one of the most talented fighters in the division and he'll pick apart almost any aggressive fighter, but somebody needs to say something bad about his mamma. If he gets angry and aggressive, watch out, because his talents are so well-rounded. Apparently, though, everyone's been too afraid to say anything to him and I'm left wanting more. Nakamura won't back down and is certainly a quality fighter but he's never been able to get over the hump. He might come right at Machida, but it might not be enough to make this a feast for the eyes. I see Machida taking this, and hopefully he proves me otherwise and does it in dominating fashion. Winner: Machida
Bren Oliver: Is there any other possibility with Machida than it going the distance? The real question is whether or not this fight make the televised portion of the card or get yanked due to being a snoozefest. Nakamura is a good fighter with incredible Judo. Still, Machida is better at all-around MMA, and he knows exactly what it takes to win a match...albeit in a plodding manner. Winner: Lyoto Machida - Judges' Decision
Diego Sanchez vs. Jon Fitch
Chris Cosme: In the fully loaded Welterweight Division, Diego Sanchez vs Jon Fitch is the toughest fight to call for me. We all know that Diego needs to win this fight more than Jon Fitch does. Diego doesn't back down from a tough fight but he got more than he bargained for in Fitch. Fitch is 6-0 in the octagon and is clearly the biggest name not to have the recognition he deserves in this weight class. I guess it must be a Jake Shields thing. Diego is coming off a boring decision loss to Josh Koscheck and will look to get back in the title hunt with a win over Fitch. As for Jon, this is the biggest fight in his career to date. If he beats Sanchez, I see him right up there with Karo Parisyan as a number one contender (by the way, when will Karo get a shot already?) for the title. This is another toss 'em fight. Here's a good one to remember: Fitch trains with the only man to defeat Sanchez in Josh Koscheck. Is that an advantage for Fitch? We'll see but I don't count of Fitch fighting the same Sanchez that fought Koscheck. I expect the Diego that brutally KO'd Joe Riggs at a recent UFC Fight Night event.
It's still a toss up for me, but I'm going with my gut with this one. Winner:: Sanchez by Split Decision (not the Bisping-Hamill kind of decision)
Randy Harrison: Another fight I am extremely excited to see because this is such an incredibly even match-up. Fitch has been slowly but steadily working his way to the upper level of welterweights while remaining undefeated since 2002. Sanchez is coming off of the loss to Josh Koscheck, which while not damaging physically, was an emotionally crippling defeat which could either serve to motivate him or to ruin him. Sanchez has also split from his longtime trainer Greg Jackson since the loss to Kos and there just seems to be far too much turmoil for Sanchez to be able to focus 100% of his efforts to this fight. Fitch is a beast and one of the stronger fighters in this weight class which will help him score some takedowns and frustrate Sanchez on the mat. This fight should be a wonderful display of grappling but I think Fitch has the better tools on the ground to be able to overcome and pick up the win. Not to mention that Sanchez is certifiably, bat-shit crazy and I can't trust a crazy person. Winner:Jon Fitch - Submission - Rd2
Leland Roling: This is by far the toughest matchup to pick on this card. Jon Fitch should be called the "Nightmare". He's a beast in the UFC right now. He visibly looks weaker than some of the other fighters in the weight class, but he's probably one of the strongest guys in there. His wrestling is phenomenal, and he's able to unload shots In the guard and pound opponents out. He also has some very good ground skills to supplement his takedowns. Diego, on the other hand, is coming off a loss to a very good wrestler in Josh Koscheck, although it never really came into play. Diego has Ali Sonoma, a new fight camp, and is supposedly training his ass off according to an interview he did on "Beatdown". The Ali Sonoma factor is haunting me. A good woman is always behind a great fighter come on, look at Randy Couture. I'm going to go on a limb and pick Jon Fitch to win this by decision. I think his power, wrestling ability, and pounding tactics can overcome Diego's very similar skills. Winner: John Fitch - Decision
Mike Farrow: Back in the awful time before Georges St Pierre exposed Josh Koscheck worse than a flasher's dick, people wondered if Jon Fitch would have a chance to show his stuff at an elite level with his vastly more recognised team-mate blocking his path. Fitch, undefeated in nearly five years, has all the momentum, though Diego represents his
biggest challenge to date. If Sanchez brings the intensity and form that he brought to his bout with Joe Riggs, then he is a massive problem for anybody in the division. If Sanchez does not turn up, like he didn't in the bout with Koscheck, then Fitch could continue his relentless march to the top of the welterweight division. Unfortunately, I feel that Diego may have a post-loss hangover. Winner: Jon Fitch, decision.
Morgan Marx: As a fan, I'm a huge Jon Fitch supporter. I love his cerebral approach to the fight game, the way he breaks down the opposition by employing mid-fight adjustments. As a journalist, I'm not sure that will help him against a 100% Diego Sanchez. The pressure that Sanchez applies, the pace he forces fighters to hang with, might be too much for Fitch. Sanchez has shown he can outwork and outlast top level welterweights. It's Fitch who enters this fight with something to prove. Winner: Diego Sanchez (Decision)
Dustin James: Fitch is on an amazing roll in the UFC thus far. Diego was on an amazing roll till his loss to that blond haired prissy boy Koscheck. Diego looked like a scared chicken in the fight against Kos, and you know he's going to come into this fight ready to get back on a roll. Fitch is looking to stay undefeated in the UFC and a way against Diego would be HUGE for him in the title hunt. Damn, this one's also a toughy...... Winner: - Fitch - Decision
Josh Hachat: When I think of Diego Sanchez, I feel like I've sucked down a whole box of lemonheads. Yes, I've soured. Staph and everything else notwithstanding, he showed me nothing against Josh Koscheck. It was a flat-lining performance in every sense, a disturbing sign after how much he had built the fight up. He's also left Team Jackson, which I can't see being a great move at this moment. On the other hand, Fitch continues to build momentum. He hasn't lost in eons xx years, actually and I see something new from him every time. I think he's a smarter fighter than Sanchez, will adjust throughout the fight and will actually control the fight in a convincing way. Of course, maybe I've been eating too much candy. Winner: Fitch
Bren Oliver: As much as I'm looking forward to Shogun's debut, I am most excited about the potential of Fitch vs. Sanchez. However, I am approaching the bout with trepidation because I am a fan of both fighters. Diego is NOT the person we saw lose to Josh Koscheck. Fitch is a terrific wrestler who is aggressive and has a solid Jiujitsu game. I think the result of this fight will ultimately come down to mental state. I believe Fitch is more focused on the task at hand while Sanchez is preoccupied with a Koscheck rematch. I commend him for taking an athlete of Fitch's caliber as his first fight since the loss but I think it will ultimately turn out to be a mistake. Winner: Jon Fitch - Judges' Decision
Mauricio "Shogun" Rua vs. Forrest Griffin
Chris Cosme: One man looks to make a statement that he has arrived, while the other sees this fight as an opportunity of a lifetime. Griffin-Rua is the most intriguing fight of the night. Will Griffin be tentative as he was against Hector Ramirez? Can Shogun adapt to not using soccer kicks or stomps? Can Griffin stand and trade with Shogun? Can Shogun use the cage to his advantage? So many questions in this fight. The only man I've seen who has been able to adapt to the cage from fighting in a ring for so long is the reigning Undisputed Light Heavyweight Champ Quinton Jackson. Cro Cop has struggled and Minotauro barely got by Herring since coming over to the UFC. Griffin has the advantage in fighting inside the cage for his entire career whereas Shogun will make his first appearance in it. Yet at the same time, Shogun can use the fence two times better than in a ring if he gets Griffin in the clinch. I really think Forrest has a shot to upset the man who pundits believe is the number one LHW in the world (I think if you're not the undisputed world champion, you belong at number two). Griffin has to use his size advantage and jab at Shogun. Anyone who fights at Chute Boxe, you know that fighter is aggressive. And Shogun is as aggressive as they come when he fights. He pushes the pace of the fight at a rate where it makes his opponents desperate to try and adjust to neutralize his fighting style. The only way Griffin avoids being just another highlight reel KO for Shogun is to stay away from the clinch. Once Shogun has Griffin in the clinch in the second round, it's lights out for Griffin and Shogun can now look forward to a potential rematch with Rampage. Winner:: Shogun by KO - Rd 2
Randy Harrison: While not the greatest fight ever in terms of a matchup, it stands to be the most important fight of the evening. Can Shogun avoid the apparent "Pride curse" that has plagued fighters coming over to fight in the Octagon? Can Griffin pull off the biggest upset of the year with his heart and determination? I don't see this one being quite the whitewash that a lot of people are expecting because Griffin is a tough, tough individual. Shogun has the total package of MMA skills and stands to be a force in the UFC for a LONG time to come. Many want to see a Shogun win here since it could possibly lead to a title shot against Rampage or a huge title eliminator fight against Liddell. Forrest will always be popular and will always have a place in the UFC since he was one half of the fight that helped usher in the explosion of the UFC and MMA into the mainstream. He should be able to give Shogun all he can handle for a round or two before finally succumbing to the talent of the Chute Boxe star. Winner: Mauricio "Shogun" Rua - TKO - Rd2
Leland Roling: Will the Octagon jitters ever end for these PRIDE guys? I think it will end in this battle. Forrest Griffin is an all-around good fighter. He's good at many skills, has great standup, very good takedowns, and can control a fight in almost every aspect. He's beaten guys like Jeff Monson, Stephan Bonnar, Hector Ramirez, and many argue that he beat Tito Ortiz. None of those guys bring the heat like "Shogun" Rua will. Rua's style is aggressive, it's fluid, and he can transition to kicks faster than anyone in MMA. He has a devastating Muay Thai clinch and knees that demolish opponents, as well as great striking skills. I think he is one fighter that the cage won't eat alive in the UFC. His ground game is solid to back up his amazing standup as well. Winner: "Shogun" Rua via 2nd round TKO/KO.
Mike Farrow: After the loss to Keith Jardine, Griffin managed to steady the ship against Hector Ramirez. While Ramirez lived up to his nickname, fighting like a "Sick Dog", Griffin's fight tactics seemed vastly improved. His head movement and general approach seemed safety first, which made a lot of sense, especially given the ruthless and lethal striking on display at the very top of this division. Rua is about as good as they come in this division but he's not experienced in the cage and this is where I think Griffin's camp will be focusing their attention. If Griffin can get tight and work for the clinch against the cage, Rua could well be in a whole heap of trouble. While, in my mind, Rua has defeated better fighters than Griffin, we cannot underestimate the impact of a cage on proceedings. It totally changes the type and amount of clinching and working with Randy Couture for two years has to give this advantage to Griffin. While I never want to bet against Shogun, I can't shake the feeling that Forrest will pull out a
shock over three rounds. Winner: Forrest Griffin, decision.
Morgan Marx: In his varied pre-PPV media appearances, Griffin has sounded confident in his chances at an upset. It's not hard to make a case for just that outcome. Griffin is experienced and popular. He has shown no fear in taking on "better" competition. If anything, he fights up or down to his opponent's level. He is training with a good camp, and will enter the cage as a huge fan favorite. Rua could be in trouble if just one thing goes against him. If he struggles with the cage/rules, if his training hasn't been top notch, if he's overwhelmed by the UFC experience, he could be the next Pride superstar to find himself on the wrong end of a huge upset. Winner: Forrest Griffin (KO, Rd 1)
Dustin James: Speaking of quick finishes. Shogun FINALLY makes it to the UFC baby! I was a fan of Forrest's till he had his little cry baby act after his last fight. Since then I've kinda despised him. But it's not going to matter because Shogun has this one in the bag. Next up, Shogun vs. Rampage. Winner: Shogun - TKO - Round 1
Josh Hachat: It's the year of the upset, which is reason enough to give Griffin in a chance in this one. I'm also positive he'll be game and won't back down from one of the biggest talents in the sport. But Rua is just too talented, and is on a much higher level than even Jardine and Tito Oritz, both of whom beat Griffin in the past year. He's too fast, too athletic, his knees will take a toll and I'm excited to see how Rua takes advantage of elbows. I'm imagining he's drooling. But this is by no means a sure thing. Pride fighters have looked rusty in the cage, Rua hasn't fought for seemingly ages (February) and Brazilians (see Paulo Filho) have looked remarkably different in the States at, ahem, drug-tested shows. Still, I see Rua being too much for Griffin and ending it with strikes in the second round. Winner: Shogun Rua TKO, Rd2
Bren Oliver: Shogun's arrival in the Octagon has been a long-time coming. I think Griffin was a great first opponent to match him up against. Forrest gives Rua a mainstream name to face which offers the opportunity to up his stock with a win and protect his name with a loss. Griffin also likes to strike which is Shogun's specialty. I don't think the American rules will prohibit Rua in any significant way. They certainly didn't affect him at PRIDE 33. It should be a fun fight to watch. If Forrest pulls off the upset all hell is going to break loose in the Light Heavyweight division. Winner: Shogun - TKO - Rd2
Chuck Liddell vs Keith Jardine
Chris Cosme: I'm sorry guys but I must be in the minority in saying that this just isn't a main event caliber match. The only thing both of these guys have in common is that they both lost at UFC 71 and both getting KTFO'd in their respectable matches. At the end of the day, this is just going to be another day in the office for the Iceman. Jardine is not even close when it comes to power. Liddell has WMD's for hands where as Jardine has just a BB Gun for hands. That's just what it comes down to. Jardine will look to leg kick Liddell to cut him off. Liddell will be on his bike all night looking to counter anything Jardine wants to throw. I mean who knows, maybe Jardine could have himself the chance of being the 2ND biggest upset in UFC history (the number one upset is of course Matt Serra) if he beats Liddell. But, I just want Chuck to end it nice and quick so that we MMA fans can finally get the dream match we've been waiting for. That's right people book it: Chuck Liddell vs Wanderlei Silva on December 29th. I mean come on Chuck, don't you want to end UFC 76: Knockout...with a knockout? I know I do. Wanderlei is waiting for you in December. Winner: Liddell by KO - Rd 1
Randy Harrison: Both men come into this fight after suffering quick, painful and humiliating KO's at UFC 71. Jardine can't afford to lose this fight and go any further down the ladder in the light heavyweight division. Liddell can't afford to lose this fight because two losses in a row at this point, at his age, would be akin to career suicide in terms of landing any of the bigger fights still out there in his career. Both will be looking to turn this into a slugfest and both have the ability to put people to sleep with their power punches. Liddell has proven himself time and time again against some of the top fighters in the sport while Jardine has fought mainly guys about at his skill level or maybe VERY little above. This is a big step up for Jardine and I think he's going to stumble again and fall another few rungs in the rankings at 205 pounds. Liddell has too much power and too much motivation to lose this fight and this one should be over fairly quickly and pretty brutally. Winner:Chuck Liddell - TKO - Rd1
Leland Roling: To be honest, I've never liked either of these fighters due to their unbelievably boring styles. Chuck's style isn't so much boring as it is overused and at the end of the line. A fighter who openly admits that he uses his championship wrestling skills to only work himself up to his standup, in my mind, is going to have a book open on him in a matter of time. Jackson showed us that book, counter the counter-puncher. That's exactly what Jardine will have to do. Jardine, however, is fairly tentative, and has never really aggressively worked against many of his opponents. I think this is one fight where Chuck won't be exploited by a good gameplan. I think Chuck will wait for Jardine to make one solid mistake and make him pay in typical Liddell fashion. Winner: Liddell via 2nd round KO.
Mike Farrow: Lose a fight in quick and humiliating fashion against a fighter you whined about fighting, get rewarded with your biggest fight to date. The UFC works in strange ways sometimes and none more so than Keith Jardine's reward for losing to Houston Alexander. I am not the sort who calls anybody but the very best a bum and will give Jardine his due as a decent fighter but I can't see him living with Liddell. Liddell blew it against Rampage because he couldn't head-hunt his way through the bout so went to the body, leaving him open for the counter. I can't see this happening against Jardine. It may take two rounds but I see Chuck by KO. Winner: Chuck Liddell, KO, round 2.
Morgan Marx: While questions can be asked about Liddell's age, training regimen, and dedication to fighting, I don'' think anyone believes he's fallen below the likes of Jardine. Jardine is aggressive and fearless, and will not be afraid to stand and trade with Liddell. Unfortunately, that's exactly the tactic that got Sobral and so many others knocked out. Maybe there's an early exchange that finds both men landing shots, but in the end, Liddell will put another light heavyweight to sleep, and move on to face Wanderlei. Winner: Chuck Liddell (KO, Rd 1)
Dustin James: As a main event, I say UGH. How can Jardine get a main event spot after getting whooped by Houston Alexander? This has the feel of the UFC feeding Jardine to Liddell in order to keep Liddell's reputation up. I don't look for this too last very long. Winner: Liddell - TKO - Round 1
Josh Hachat: Jardine is going to want to stand and bang, and Liddell's proven over the years if you're name isn't Rampage, that's not a good idea. But five minutes is a long time to stand and strike with one of the sport's best, and I think Liddell eventually takes advantage of that. I can see both being tentative after being sent to la-la land in May, but I think Liddell comes with a smarter fight this time. He certainly better because I'm certain Jardine will never take another fighter lightly after he did so against Houston Alexander and was sent into orbit because of it. This might not be the marquee main event, but I'm not down with criticizing this fight. It's got a chance to be explosive and it features two fighters looking to get back on track. That equals two hungry fighters, which usually means fireworks. But Liddell will win this, do it fast and do it well, simply because he wants that fight against Wanderlei Silva to happen in December. At least that's what I keep telling myself. Winner: Liddell
Bren Oliver: This is a lose-lose fight for Liddell. If he beats Jardine he's done nothing more than defeat a guy who lost to a debuting Houston Alexander. Granted, "The Dean of Mean" is more than just a tomato can, but he's not the caliber of opponent Chuck Liddell should be fighting. If Chuck loses to Jardine then people will start questioning whether or not it's time for the 37-year old to hang up his five ounce gloves. I see this fight turning into a slugfest at the opening bell and result with someone staring up at the lights within the first stanza. Winner: Chuck Liddell - KO - Rd1
