411 MMA Fact or Fiction 09.21.07: UFC 76 Preview

Posted by Michael Huckaby on 09.21.2007

Will Shogun debut with a knockout of Forrest Griffin? Will UFC rules inhibit his future? Does Keith Jardine have better than a 20% chance of beating Chuck Liddell? Can Jon Fitch take the next step against Diego Sanchez? Check out all of this and more in the latest 411 MMA Fact or Fiction!

I'd like to open by thanking Punishment Athletics, a company that has always been good to us with interviews and access, for sponsoring Fact or Fiction. Please check out their site (http://punishmentathletics.com); I am a personal fan as they're a rare company that puts out mixed martial arts apparel with style that doesn't scream out that you think you're tough and want to fight people.

Welcome back to another edition of 411 MMA Fact or Fiction, the game where I make a statement and then two columnists backup their argument that the statement is either fact.... or fiction. Joining me this week is 411's own Dan Rather-like news man, Bren Oliver, false documents and all. His opponent is a man always up for the challenge, fine thespian and author of Planet Tapout, Sir Lotfi Sariahmed.

Let's go!

1. Shogun Rua will knock out Forrest Griffin.

Oliver: FICTION. While I do believe Rua will win, I'm leaning more towards a victory of the TKO variety. This bout should almost definitely be a striking match. While Rua is solid on the ground, and Griffin knows his "jits", both men are primarily known for throwing leather and I don't see why this encounter should be any different. Rua is more technically rounded in every area of MMA and throws incredibly precise strikes. I see Rua picking apart Griffin on their feet, then taking him down, improving his position, and eventually pounding him out on the ground. A knockout is definitely a very real possibility though.

Sariahmed: FICTION. Could Rua knock Griffin out? Sure. But I just don't see it. Griffin hasn't been knocked out since his fight with Jeremy Horn back in 2003. And don't forget Rua's fighting in the cage now. I don't care how amazing he is, there's going to be an adjustment to fighting in the cage. It happened with Cro Cop, it happened with Nogueira and it will happen with Shogun. This will be Griffin's 8th bout in the UFC's octagon. You could be the biggest Shogun fan in the world but you have to admit that at least counts for something. Knocking Griffin out would be a huge statement and I just don't think he'll make it.

Score: 1 for 1, damn you and your literal interpretations of "knock out".

2. Followup: UFC rules can inhibit Shogun's success down the road in the Octagon.

Oliver: FACT. I suppose they CAN, but I don't believe they WILL. I believe Rua is well-rounded enough to where he doesn't need to rely on soccer kicks and stomps. He can still throw devestating drop-down punches to grounded opponents (Hello Mr. Overeem), unleash his arsenal of various strikes while standing, and use his BJJ skills without inhibition. He already has some experience fighting under American rules and I don't see the Octagon affecting his game because of his affiliation with Chute Boxe (a group very familiar with fighting in cages). I simply think Shogun is too good to have to rely on a few specific strike-variations.

Sariahmed: FACT. Of course they CAN. I don't know if they necessarily will. It's taking a couple of weapons out of his game, specifically in the soccer kicks, and I just don't think you become better by not being able to do something. I mean perhaps he can adjust and become a stronger fighter. Perhaps he could also turn into Cro Cop and become a bum collecting paychecks. I don't think it's either of those extremes but I think it CAN inhibit Shogun's success. So by default I go fact.

Score: 2 for 2, and yes, I spent 5 minutes deciding whether to use "will" or "can". That's what my life has been reduced to.

3. Anthony Johnson's power and aggression will be largely ineffective against Rich Clementi.

Oliver: FICTION. I don't think there's an actual technique in MMA that I would consider "largely ineffective" against Rich Clementi. The bottom line is that Clementi isn't much of a professional fighter. He's not HORRIBLE. He just isn't very good. I believe Johnson's power/aggression may actually work to Clementi's advantage because he should have a better chance to land a knockout punch as a result (in comparison to facing a more methodical fighter).

Sariahmed: FICTION. Did we have that much disdain for the Machida v. Nakamura fight that we decided not to include it? Come on this Johnson question doesn't even seem like you're trying Huck. Clementi's not going to stop anyone from doing anything whether it be Anthony Johnson or Avery Johnson. And if you don't know who Avery Johnson is, I'm not going to help you. I'll leave Oliver to all the breakdown for this question. I'm asking Huckaby why he doesn't like Machida v. Nakamura. Boo this question. Fiction.

Score: 3 for 3. What? Machida is going to win by decision. What do you want me to ask? I love Nak but there is no entertaining question about that fight you could ever pose. And don't you ever judge my Avery Johnson knowledge, his penetration and kickouts to Vinny Del Negro and Chuck Person in NBA Live 95 are that of legend. Yeah, I dropped Vinny Del Negro and Nakamura in the same paragraph, that's how I do.

----SWITCH IT UP----

4. Keith Jardine has less than a 20% chance of defeating Chuck Liddell.

Sariahmed: FICTION. Less than 20% for a guy who makes his living throwing bombs and looking for that big knock out seems a bit small to me. Mind you that's not to say I think Jardine is going to win. I don't. I think Liddell might never throw a punch to the body for the rest of his career after "Rampage" made him pay for the last one. Jardine's a big hulking light heavyweight built like a MAC truck. His striking game is all power and not a whole lot of finesse. But when you beat up Forrest Griffin the way he did you don't need a whole lot to get very far. The problem for Jardine in this fight is that he's going to need some finesse to get to Liddell's chin and clock him with one to knock him out. I just don't see him doing it. But a less than 20% chance for Jardine to win seems too low to me. All it takes is one punch...and this brawl will be full of them.

Oliver: FICTION. I think something in the 30%-35% range is a more realistic number. After watching Rampage floor Liddell with a single punch I think it's hard to NOT question Chuck's chin. Jardine makes a living on his feet, meaning it's not as if his strategy will be to take Liddell down and submit him. He's a strong, well-conditioned fighter who comes from a great camp. This is his "Superbowl". This is his "Championship Bout". I think Jardine, who originally thought the UFC was pulling his leg in offering the opportunity to fight Liddell, will be extremely motivated in comparison to the Iceman. As my esteemed colleague stated, "all it takes is one punch", and Jardine is definitely the kind of fighter who can deliver a dream with a single strike.

Score: 4 for 4.

5. The undefeated run of Thiago Tavares will come to an end at the hands of Tyson Griffin.

Sariahmed: FACT. But I don't feel tremendously confident about it. I just need to say consistent with what I said in Planet Tapout. So here we go, Tavares is 13-0 and there's no doubt he's very talented. But he hasn't faced a ground technician the caliber of Tyson Griffin. I know Tavares has 10 submission victories, but I question his competition. I know he beat Jason Black and Naoyuki Kotani but Griffin is better than both those fighters. This will also be Tavares' first PPV appearance with the UFC. This will be Griffin's 4th. Tyson Griffin's already been in two really tough fights in the last seven months. He just lost in a Fight of the Year candidate against Frankie Edgar then squeaked out a split decision in another FOTY candidate against Clay Guida. Not only has Griffin been on the big stage but he's been in the big fight and he's pulled one out. There we go. After that explanation I've convinced myself I've made the right choice.

Oliver: FACT. You've convinced me as well. I like Griffin's UFC experience to play a role in the decision as well as his ability on the ground. I think Tyson's strength and conditioning will allow him to handle Tavares' mat-based assault. It should be a very active bout, hotly contested from start to finish, and remind fans of why the 155 lbs. division is quickly turning the term "Fight of the Year" into "Fights of the Year".

Score: 5 for 5.

6. Jon Fitch will continue his win streak and take the next step against Diego Sanchez.

Sariahmed: FICTION. But again, I don't feel good about it. Fitch is going into this fight facing an angry Diego Sanchez. "Nightmare" looked like garbage against Josh Koscheck in his last bout and he wants to prove that was nothing but a fluke. Mind you Fitch has the perfect blueprint with regard to how to beat Sanchez right in his camp with the aforementioned Koscheck. But I think Sanchez is going to be a completely different fighter. Fitch would be stupid to prepare for Sanchez based on the Koscheck fight as opposed to the Parisyan fight or Diaz fight. Don't underestimate what coming off a loss does to an elite fighter. And lets not misconstrue things, Sanchez is right up in the welterweight division. He just needs to get his head on straight. And this Saturday he'll do that.

Oliver: FACT. Until Diego Sanchez does an interview with 411Mania's MMA Zone that includes "gotta go with the big ass" in reference to Jennifer Lopez, I will remain biased in my support for Jon Fitch. Actually, I'm a huge fan of both fighters and as excited as I am about this bout, I'm also a little bummed because it means one of the two is leaving with a loss. I agree that Fitch would be mistaken to approach the fight based on Sanchez's lackluster performance against Josh Koscheck at UFC 69. "Nightmare" was dealing with a staph infection and almost had his retirement announced the day before when there was concern he had contracted Hepatitis C. I believe Fitch is a better wrestler and will be able to neutralize certain aspects of Sanchez's game because of it. Diego is extremely intense, and I expect him to make his AKA opponent work at all times, but I am confident enough in Fitch's conditioning to believe he can go the full fifteen if needed. The primary reason I believe Fitch will stand victorious at the end of the bout has to do with mental state. Sports psychology is a fascinating aspect when it comes to athletic competition. There's a very real reason people question how a fighter will respond to a devastating loss or increased pressure. Look what happened to Georges St. Pierre. I think Diego psyched himself out against Koscheck. He felt he would dominate. He wanted to literally DESTROY Kos. He talked uncharacteristic garbage leading up to the fight and even got into a shoving match at the weigh-ins. And Diego is a guy who has always been labeled as being a little "out there". I believe where Fitch will be confident going into UFC 76, Sanchez will be over-confident. His focus is more on a rematch with Koscheck than the task in front of him. And folks, if you don't know already, Fitch is definitely somoone who shouldn't be underestimated no matter how few times he's been shown on television.

Score: 5 for 6, and a "big ass" comment by Jon Fitch in a 411mania interview ruins what would have been perfect agreement.

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Next week new 411mania MMA writers Adam Morgan and Randy Harrison will step into the pit we call Fact or Fiction to discuss the results of UFC 76 and perhaps some Cage Rage.