MMA Analytics 09.24.07: UFC 76: Judgment Day in MMA
Posted by Leland Roling on 09.24.2007
A breakdown of this weekend's UFC event, UFC 76: Knockout, and the aftermath of the event. We take an in-depth look into the significance of Griffin's submission victory over "Shogun" Rua, as well as some of the important stories that came out of UFC 76. Is Liddell finished? What are the potential matchups in the Light Heavyweight Division now? All these questions are asked and answered.
UFC 76: Knockout was more like UFC 76: Judgment Day. It was the event that decided whether the #1 Light Heavyweight in the World in Mauricio "Shogun" Rua would shut up the critics who have said that PRIDE fighters cannot fight in the Octagon. Liddell's future in MMA is now up in the air and his skillset is being critiqued throughout the MMA community. The event solidified questions that we have been asking for years, let's take an in-depth look at the event, the questions, and the answers.
Griffin submits "Shogun" Rua
A huge issue for years has been the argument that PRIDE fighters are better than UFC fighters and vice versa. For the most part, this argument has been slowly becoming one-sided in the previous months leading up to this event. When Zuffa bought PRIDE back in March, many fans were ecstatic with the prospect of PRIDE vs. UFC fight cards that would end the argument. It was perceived for a long time that PRIDE fighters were much more aggressive, tenacious strikers, but also had some unbelievably gifted ground tacticians. Names like Wanderlei Silva, Mauricio "Shogun" Rua, Mirko "CroCop" Filipovic, Antonio "Big Nog" Nogueira, and Fedor Emelianenko were tossed around in these arguments. How many of these guys have lived up to this argument? Only one has successfully won in the Octagon since the buyout. "Big Nog" was the only fighter to actually win his bout in the cage. Granted, he fought an ex-PRIDE fighter in Heath Herring, but he was still able to use the cage to his advantage, unlike many previous PRIDE fighters have been able to do. Mirko has had two poor showings in the UFC, recently losing to Cheick Kongo at UFC 75. Although winning the first round, he suffered a broken rib and was hesitant in the next two rounds. He also was kneed in the groin three or four times during the matchup, in which in some post-fight interviews, he said affected his cardio a bit. What is it about these fighters that is stopping them from performing well in the cage?
Case in point, "Shogun" Rua was beaten on Saturday night by Forrest Griffin. Rua's main skill flaw was his horrible cardio. If you really go back and look at this fight, it was very Shogun-esque to start out. He came out with that bounce, that swagger in his step. He ate a leg kick and immediately went on the offensive, throwing two big haymakers. His ju-jitsu came into play a few times, but Griffin recognized the submission holds and stayed out of danger. The round ended with some decent takedowns, but nothing significant from "Shogun" Rua. When the second round began, "Shogun" was visibly breathing heavy already after a five minute round. He was able to land a mean elbow to Griffin's head that opened a fairly large gash during his second round of attacks. This was all the damage Rua was really able to do against Griffin. Rua slowly began to gas out and had significantly slower standup and horrible takedown ability. By the third round, Griffin looked fresher than Rua, and ultimately was able to get his back and sink in a choke to win the matchup. That is a quick and dirty rundown of that fight. The key point was Shogun's cardio. People can make tons of cases as to why ‘Shogun" fought so horribly. He just got married, just moved to L.A., got caught up in the lifestyle, underestimated Forrest Griffin, didn't train hard enough, the list goes on, but in the end, "Shogun" Rua's fight may have very well proved that PRIDE's reign in the MMA world is completely over. Their ex-fighters that are now absorbed into the UFC are considered by many in the MMA community to be overrated. How can anyone argue against that point?
Liddell's days are over
To be perfectly honest, I was never a fan of Chuck Liddell. I think he's a great knockout fighter who had some great success against ground fighters who decided to change their gameplans and stand with a world class striker. Once his collision course with the man who once beat him convincingly in PRIDE came calling, I picked Rampage Jackson to win definitively because it would be one of the rare times we would see Chuck Liddell fight a pure brawler in Jackson. Jackson came out victorious, and Liddell went home claiming he would be back.
Saturday night was the night when Chuck Liddell came back. He fought Keith Jardine, who seemed to be the guy nobody was really giving a shot among the casual MMA fans. Among the hardcore fans, it seemed that Jardine did possess some skills that could make it tough for Liddell, but ultimately it seemed like Liddell had the superior striking and defense to neutralize Jardine. We were wrong.
Although Keith Jardine was significantly beat in the first round, he was able to avoid the knockout punch and land some choice shots of his own in the second round. His leg kicks were always a danger to Chuck, and he landed significant shots to Chuck's side with mid kicks. Overall, it was a standup war, but with Chuck's lack of checking Jardine's kicks, Jardine was able to begin striking and landing big shots on a fairly consistent basis. Liddell was also landing some hard shots, but nothing like we are used to seeing from the former UFC Light Heavyweight Champion. Jardine's combinations and patience, along with his ability to recover and amazingly land some big shots enabled him to overwhelm Liddell and get him out of his gameplan. Jardine won the fight via split decision, angering Wanderlei Silva who wanted the Liddell-Silva matchup in December, mainly for the rivalry and probably the PPV cut in revenues.
So, what's next for Chuck Liddell? I think he should immediately fight Wanderlei Silva in December due to the PPV draw, the big highlight fight before his career turns south even more. The book is completely open on Chuck Liddell, and it's also been opened up on Wanderlei Silva. Silva has smartly enlisted the help of Randy Couture in training for his first UFC stint though. The fight is too big to pass up. It's been on the plate for quite some time, and it cannot be shelved any longer. Liddell has an incentive to fight for the big money it will draw, and possibly one last hoorah in the UFC. Wanderlei has always wanted to fight Chuck, and the rivalry has been built up for years leading up to the addition of Silva to the UFC.
With that said, Liddell needs to add something to his game that he forgot about quite a few fights ago. He has a great wrestling background and a very good kickboxing background. Where was that at during this last fight? Where has his wrestling been during his entire career? Chuck Liddell's MMA skillset is one dimensional. With the amount of skilled fighters coming into MMA these days, the variety of skills that these fighters have is unbelievable. It's only a matter of time before those skills pass Liddell by, and he begins to fade. I believe that is what we are beginning to see. Better fighters, similar strikers, and tougher to knockout opponents will plague Liddell if he doesn't add something to his style.
Machida impresses!
I've always had an interest in Ryoto "Lyoto" Machida. He's one of the most elusive fighters in MMA. He has a very unorthodox style and MMA skillset. His primary skill of attack is Shotokan Karate along with a ground base of Brazilian ju-jitsu. His karate base is very hard for opponents to fight against because Machida loves to sit back. He's not aggressive, he uses range and kicks to score on opponents and frustrate them. Once his opponent moves in to strike, he evades the attack and moves away from the area. Opponents can never set up attacks or get close to him. It's probably one of the most frustrating things that can happen to you in the Octagon. Ask David Heath, who couldn't even hit Machida for nearly two rounds, and then was overwhelmed in the third round.
Machida's matchup with Nakamura was a classic Machida style fight. He used his superior footwork, kicks, and point style fighting to frustrate Nakamura. Nakamura is definitely a more aggressive fighter than some of the recent matchups that Machida has had. He came out and moved toward Machida rather quickly, eating kicks while doing so. Machida simply powered Nakamura to the side and reset his stance. He also looked impressive in the clinch, using some great body control techniques along with some sweep attempts. The body kicks by Machida were especially damaging to Nakamura. It was one of the most effective strikes he had during the fight. Even in the third round, Machida looked very good cardio wise and was still controlling Nakamura on the ground as well. Overall, outstanding performance from Machida.
Potential future matchups
With the huge upset wins by Jardine and Griffin, the Light Heavyweight division has been thrown into a blender as far as matchups go. Who will fight who next? Will the UFC still put on a Wanderlei Silva vs. Chuck Liddell fight at the December 29th event? My thoughts are that they should continue with the Silva-Liddell matchup. As I stated before, Liddell and Silva has been one of the most sought after fights in the world of mixed martial arts. They are both fantastic strikers with knockout power who have already built up a rivalry with each other without even fighting one another. The UFC needs to deliver this fight to the fans before either Liddell or Silva are in retirement form.
My other picks for potential matchups are obviously guesses, but interesting matchups nonetheless. Here's a list:
Mauricio "Shogun" Rua vs. Chuck Liddell
Forrest Griffin vs. Wanderlei Silva
Keith Jardine vs. Houston Alexander II
Lyoto Machida vs. Tito Ortiz/Rashad Evans
Granted, I'd rather see Liddell-Silva, but if it doesn't happen, that'd be a very interesting matchup. Griffin gets Wanderlei, then possibly a title shot if he wins that matchup. The UFC loves rematches, so an Alexander vs. Jardine matchup again would not be so far fetched, but then again, they could pit Jardine against Griffin again. I'm not so fond of that matchup though. Machida definitely deserves the next tier of fighters after beating a proven veteran in Nakamura, and he did it in convincing fashion. This also depends on what Dan Henderson does. Will he go down to Middleweight? And where does Bisping stand? I think Bisping vs. Machida would be complete destruction for Bisping. And on the Henderson front, I think he'd dominate at Middleweight. It's been rumored Henderson and Bisping may both drop down. Honestly, we won't be able to gauge the matchups until those factors are set.
UFC 76 goes down in history
Overall, UFC 76 will go down as the fight card in 2007 that solidified the UFC's stance that they had the better fighters before PRIDE was bought out by Zuffa. You really can't make an argument against it until a PRIDE fighter really steps up. Could it be Fedor or Nogueira? It's quite possible considering they have styles that are more suited to the cage than pure strikers. Fedor's transition game has never been duplicated by any fighter in MMA today, and it may just completely catch the UFC Heavyweights off guard if he makes his way to the UFC. Nogueira's ju-jitsu skills are some of the best in the world, and that translates well to the Octagon. He's also a very skilled boxer. We will see yet some more matchups that pit the PRIDE against the UFC, and more questions will be answered. For now, the UFC has the big edge in that argument.
We also saw a changing of the guard. The old guard that is the mainstay staple that has fueled the UFC for quite some time is beginning to rust. Liddell's book has been opened and fighters are taking advantage. It's time to re-evaluate his skillset, add something new, or take on Wanderlei and head for the hills. Who knows what he will do? But for me, I think he still has some great fights left in him, and he won't be able to stay out of the game for any length of time. He's a fighter, and that's what he will always do.
Some new blood in the UFC showed their prowess in the Octagon at UFC 76 as well. Machida confirmed why he in still undefeated and a force to be reckoned with in the Light Heavyweight Division. His elusive style and unorthodox southpaw striking enabled him to win yet another crushing win. Jon Fitch nullified any doubt in our minds that he belongs near the top in the welterweight division.
And finally, Forrest Griffin put himself back into the picture for contention in the light heavyweight division. With an impressive win over "Shogun" Rua, there is no doubt that Forrest ended the argument. Griffin fought his heart out, and I was overly impressed with his performance. It definitely made me a believer in the UFC talent pool.
So, what's next for Chuck Liddell? I think he should immediately fight Wanderlei Silva in December due to the PPV draw, the big highlight fight before his career turns south even more. The book is completely open on Chuck Liddell, and it's also been opened up on Wanderlei Silva. Silva has smartly enlisted the help of Randy Couture in training for his first UFC stint though. The fight is too big to pass up. It's been on the plate for quite some time, and it cannot be shelved any longer. Liddell has an incentive to fight for the big money it will draw, and possibly one last hoorah in the UFC. Wanderlei has always wanted to fight Chuck, and the rivalry has been built up for years leading up to the addition of Silva to the UFC. 
