The MMA News Report 10.17.07

Posted by Morgan Marx on 10.17.2007

Thoughts on Couture’s departure, updates on Parisyan, Chonan, Shields and Strikeforce, and an in-depth look at the UFC 77 main card. All this and more inside. How much more? You’ll have to click to find out!

INTRODUCTION

We're back again with another packed edition of the Wednesday news report. Randy Couture's abrupt resignation from the UFC certainly provided a big talking point at the end of last week, but hopefully we can all turn our attention to this Saturday's UFC 77. So what am I going to lead off the column with? More thoughts on Couture! Way to take my own advice. Seriously though, we have some good stuff to discuss this week, so let's get to it.


MAILBAG/RANT TIME

Gee, did anything major happen last week? The most disappointing aspect of writing a column (as opposed to a more malleable blog) is when a major news story breaks right after your column goes live. I headed to work last Thursday morning at 9 and returned home some 13 hours later from school, only to find that one of the largest stories of the MMA year was developing across the Interwebs. Obviously, everyone has an opinion on Randy Couture's sudden departure from the UFC. I'm sure you're all broken up that you had to wait a week for mine.

Actually, the delay in responding to such a story can be a blessing as well as a curse. More time means more information, less speculation, and less vitriol. Am I disappointed that the heavyweight champion has decided to resign from the company? Of course. But it isn't the end of the world for the UFC. While some have decided to contemplate myriad doomsday scenarios for the UFC ("Randy will take his affiliated fighters with him," "other champions will resign too!") I think Couture's actions are more of an isolated incident.

The issues concerning Couture's acting career and a possible showdown with Fedor are clearly less important than the hard feelings Couture apparently harbors toward the UFC. Regardless of the discrepancies between Couture's characterization of his contractual status and Dana White's, Couture obviously was very upset with the way he was treated. His presence will be missed, both in ring and on camera. To many, he was the face of UFC fighters, the first man brought up in discussions about both the sport's history and present condition. He is more notable than Royce Gracie (largely unknown to mainstream fans), much more beloved than Chuck Liddell (who lacks Couture's charisma and engaging looks), and much more polished than White (Dana could learn some PR ability from Couture).

But, to play devil's advocate, the UFC will survive. Couture has retired before, and at 44 would likely have been out of the cage within the next year anyway. Without Fedor's signature, there weren't any "must see" fights left for Couture in the UFC. Fights against Brandon Vera or Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira would have been interesting, but MMA fans will live without them. A champion v. champion fight against a light heavyweight (likely Quinton Jackson) wouldn't make a whole ton of sense. And Couture isn't the most exciting fighter known to man. His victory over Tim Sylvia was noteworthy because of the accomplishment, not the action. A fight against a talented ground specialist like Nogueira or Jackson might have been a plodding stalemate, while a fight against Vera might have ended with Couture in a heap.

Randy gets to retire (err, resign) at the top of his weight class. When Couture was granted the title shot against Sylvia, it was due to a lack of credible challengers. Couture leaves with four top competitors vying for the next title shot (5 if you include Arlovski). The UFC did not need Couture to be the standard bearer for the division. Vera or Nogueira can emerge as the next celebrated UFC champion, or Tim Sylvia can regain the killer instinct that made him a favorite on his way to the belt the first time.

Couture departs in a fog of confusion. We don't know when or if he can fight with another organization. We don't know anything about the sketchy group Fedor Emelianenko has established in Russia. We don't know if there's a chance Couture might reconcile with the UFC somewhere down the road. It wouldn't surprise me to see Couture face off against Fedor somewhere down the road. But it also wouldn't be surprising if his acting career fizzles and he rejoins the UFC as a color commentator/figurehead. Whatever happens, Couture will remain in the limelight, whether his fighting days are over (as the UFC suggests) or not (as Couture seems hell bent on proving).

The Reader's Question: How does Couture's departure from the UFC change your perception of the organization? Of Couture? And will you find a way to watch a Randy v. Fedor fight should it happen somewhere other than the UFC?


NEWS

News Quick Hits


Parisyan v. Chonan at UFC 78 In a move that arguably improves the oft-criticized UFC 78 card, UFC newcomer Ryo Chonan has taken the place of Hector Lombard as Karo Parisyan's next opponent. Chonan's former opponent, Thiago Alves, will now face off against Chris Lytle. The move seems to benefit everyone involved. Chonan gets bounced to the televised portion of the card, while Parisyan will fight an experienced veteran with several big wins to his name. Alves, meanwhile, gets a tough test against Lytle. A dominant victory for Alves would really improve his standing in the welterweight division.

Chonan is most notable for a ridiculous submission victory over current UFC middleweight champ Anderson Silva, via flying scissor heel hook. It's one of those Sherdog notations that forced me to immediately find a clip of the fight online. While the victory is a must see, it's kind of the equivalent of Nathan Vasher's 108 yard missed field goal return for a touchdown. Yeah, it's amazing, but it's not really part of an average MMA fight. Chonan is tough, but if Parisyan is a truly of championship caliber, he should get past "Piranha" with relative ease.
Sources: Westling Observer

Jake Shields Eyes UFC In a story that should remain everyone of the pecking order in MMA organizations, EliteXC fighter Jake Shields is leaning towards a move to the UFC in the near future. In an interview with ADCCombat.com the Rumble on the Rock champion confirmed that a spot in the UFC appeals to him. Said Shields:

I'm really looking at UFC over Elite because that is where a lot of top guys are. In the next few weeks I'll probably make my decision on where I'm going to be signing. With the Rumble on the Rock tournament and EliteXC and my last four or five fights have been top come and have been fast, easy fights. I think it definitely shows I belong there.

Shields confirms what I think makes the UFC the top organization in the world. You can talk about format, and production values, and emphasis on entertainment all you want, but the thing that sets organizations apart is the roster. I think many fighters share Shields desire to test themselves against the best competition. While men like Denis Kang and Fedor have their reasons for signing with lesser organizations, most fighters will jump at a chance to take on the top 5 ranked fighter sin the world. That Shields would abandon a spot as an organization's top welterweight fighter to join a stacked division speaks to his character.

As time passes, the UFC should continue to lock down top ranked fighters such as Shields. I won't be surprised if former UFC fighter like Robbie Lawler gets another chance due to his recent success. For the UFC to bill itself as the top organization in the world means that they need to sign the top ranked fighters. Someone like Shields may be even more valuable in the long run than some of the ex-Pride fighters who are proving to be the definition of overrated.
.Sources: ADCCombat.com

Strikeforce to Reintroduce Tournament Kevin Iole, in a rare non-UFC update, confirmed that Strikeforce was planning a four man middleweight tournament this coming November to decided whom will challenge for Frank Shamrock's title. Iole confirmed that former UFC title challenger Joe Riggs and former UFC and IFL competitor Niko Vitale would comprise half the field. MMAJunkie.com is reporting that full time fighter/part time blogger Sean Salmon will participate on the same card and serve as a possible replacement should an injury rule out one of the scheduled competitors.

I'm split on the one night tournament format, but this is another move that should generate buzz for Strikeforce. Fans of Pride will probably love the return of the tourney. There's no doubt that the format can provide interesting match-ups and exciting finishes. Unfortunately, it is too often marred by match-ups featuring exhausted fighters against fresh fighters, and injuries that force replacement fighters.

The big question about the event would be whether Shamrock consents to fighting the winner. Shamrock has publicly named Renzo Gracie as his next desired opponent, and with Shamrock's schedule and prickly attitude no one knows when a fight against a tournament winner would occur. But should Strikeforce secure two more name fighters, it could be an interesting night. And maybe the format will provide Riggs a shot at redemption, something most MMA fans wouldn't root against.
Sources: Yahoo Sports


COMMENTARY

While UFC 78 has received a lot of negative attention recently, is there any doubt that 78 is actually a better card, top to bottom, than UFC 77? Sure, 78 may be lacking a true headlining fight (which is a big knock, I'll admit), but 77's undercard isn't much to write home about either. Right now, the fifth fight of the night is still unconfirmed. How are Yushin Okami and Jason MacDonald not on the televised portion? Is the epic Jorge Gurgel v. Alvin Robinson match really much more deserving? Are people really clamoring to see Josh Burkman fight again? Sheesh. For the purposes of this preview, I'm going to assume that Okami and MacDonald make the broadcast. Here's hoping they come to fight, and not lay and pray.


UFC 77 Main Card


Alan Belcher v. Kalib Starnes: In any other weight class, this fight would be so far removed from the title picture that it wouldn't matter. Yet in the barren middleweight division, someone has to step up. With Chris Leban knocking out potential challenger Terry Martin there is now a complete lack of credible title contenders. Anderson Silva and Rich Franklin make up the top of the pack, Jason MacDonald and Yushin Okami are barely visible as the second group, and then the talent just plummets. Alan Belcher could make a name for himself with several good wins in a row. He's coming off a quick submission victory over Sean Salmon (the Frank Trigg of the guillotine choke) and took Okami to a decision loss in his first UFC fight. I'm not saying that Belcher is the future of the division, but he's young, athletic, and can finish fights.

Starnes is not so young, not so athletic, and has shown mixed skills in the UFC. Outclassing the clueless Danny Abbadi proves nothing, his loss to Okami was far less flattering, and his victory over Chris Leban doesn't mean as much as it could. The Leban Starnes beat seemed to lack focus, conditioning, and desire. The Leban that beat Martin was a different animal.

I'm not sure what the UFC hopes to get out of this fight. Both men are large middleweights and carry different skill sets. If Belcher is still growing as a fighter, a quick stoppage victory over Starnes could move him up the ladder a bit. Belcher seems like a marketable fighter that could become a fan favorite. Starnes doesn't appear to be a title challenger. But in the middleweight division, who knows what will happen?
Prediction: Belcher by TKO.

Eric Schafer v. Stephan Bonnar: Eric Schafer seems like a great guy. He comes off as likeable and witty in his interviews. He seems to be well respected by his peers. He represents the kind of fighter that I gravitate toward, the educated, ironic men that fight because they like to. If given some exposure he could easily catch on with the fans interested in more than just blood and brutality.

Unfortunately for Schafer, Stephan Bonnar is exactly the same kind of man, and he spent many weeks ingratiating himself with TV viewers on the inaugural season of TUF. Bonnar was the first fighter I really cheered for, and I will still argue that he won the infamous bout with Forrest Griffin. Surprisingly, I'm referring to their first encounter. For whatever reason he hasn't quite put it together in the octagon, and now sports a 4-3 record in the UFC. But I still think Bonnar has a chance to make something of himself within the organization.

Bonnar has yet to be finished in a fight, has a ridiculous chin, and has shown the ability to overcome adversity (bouncing back from a steroid related suspension). While he has yet to prove he truly belongs with the top light heavyweights, he has shown that he can hang with the bottom half of the top 10. His win over Keith Jardine may have been controversial, and his loss to Rashad Evans was demoralizing, but he hung tough with both men.

I'm glad Bonnar isn't fighting another TUF graduate. I think he's primed for a move up the division with a few wins strung together. Schafer is a talented ground fighter, but his loss to Michael Bisping (a fighter I think Bonnar would defeat revealed a stand-up game needing work. Bonnar should be able to survive against Schafer should the fight hit the mat, and excel on his feet.
Prediction: Bonnar by TKO.

Jason MacDonald v. Yushin Okami: I think there's only one way this fight plays out, and it's the reason the match isn't guaranteed a TV spot. With neither fighter possessing really good striking ability, and with both sharing similar physiques, this is probably going to be a technical ground fight based on positioning and submission defense. Not exactly must see TV.

Still, I'm hoping for the best. Each fighter has an intriguing quality; MacDonald for his ability to resurrect his career, Okami for his quiet assuredness. Okami seems completely untroubled by his situation. Even when he was clearly losing his career-making fight against Rich Franklin, Okami never seemed worried and almost sprung the upset in the last frame. While MacDonald doesn't seem to think Okami will have that big of a strength advantage, Okami seemed to handle Franklin's size much better than MacDonald did.

I think that consistency might make the difference in this fight. Win or lose, Okami seems to fight at about the same level every time out. He wears on opponents and breaks them psychologically before breaking them physically. If MacDonald has any doubts about his abilities, he's in for a rough night. The tangibles may be even, but I think Okami secures the decision with another late push. Of all the Japanese fighters to transition to the UFC, I think he benefits most from the scoring and the rules.

Which ever man wins, he hasn't proved he's a top 3 middleweight. Okami has the better qualifications, but coming close to beating Franklin doesn't mean anything in the long run. Could either of these men hang with Anderson Silva? Or Dan Henderson? I doubt it.
Prediction: Okami by Unanimous Decision.

Tim Sylvia v. Brandon Vera: I am very interested to see how the crowd reacts to Tim Sylvia. By no means is it a hometown fight for the "Maine-iac" (a truly terrible nickname), but if the Mid Ohio Valley doesn't support Sylvia in his attempt to regain the heavyweight belt, who will? Vera possesses all the qualities of a potential champion: a cocky self-assuredness, dynamic striking, and a slick submission game. The only thing he's lacking is the size that would mark him as a true heavyweight. Unlike a Dan Henderson, there doesn't seem to be the same fervent opinion that Vera needs to drop down. Fans want to see him stay at heavyweight and compete with the top of the division. I think this will be a much bigger test for Vera than a title against Couture or a match-up with Mirko Filipovic of Andrei Arlovski would have been.

While everyone has turned on Sylvia, he still carries a 25-3 record in the octagon. And while his lackluster performance against Couture cost him the belt, it didn't reveal any holes in his game. Sylvia's one problem seems to be a weak chin. Ranted, he hasn't been knocked out, or stopped by strikes, but singular punches have turned the tides in both his loss to Couture (the fight ended with the first round, first minute knockdown) and his submission loss to Arlovski (a stiff punch dropped Sylvia before the leg lock). If Sylvia can avoid a direct hit on the chin, he should be able to win.

It's a big if against a striker the quality of Vera. But Vera still needs to prove himself in my eyes. His win over Frank Min meant virtually nothing. I don't think Vera will be able to outpoint a more determined Sylvia. Vera's going to have to take the fight to him and push the pace much like Couture did. He's going to have to prove that his striking and submissions are that much better than a majority of heavyweights and finish Sylvia. If not, I think Sylvia's reach, size, and one punch power win out in the end. I honestly don't know why I keep ending up arguing in favor of Sylvia, and there's no doubt that another Sylvia title reign terrifies me. But I don't see Vera winning this fight, regardless of his amazing skills.
Prediction: Sylvia by KO.

Middleweight Title Fight: Anderson Silva (c) v. Rich Franklin: He's beaten a brawler with a chin of stone. A greco wrestler with an immaculate pedigree. The "Michael Jordan" of BJJ. And he completely destroyed the world's most well rounded middleweight in one of the most lopsided title fights I've ever seen. Yet Anderson Silva still seems underrated to me. Maybe it's the constant assumptions that a world class wrestler like Dan Henderson or Matt Lindland would own him. Maybe it's because Silva doesn't get quite as much press as other champions due to his English (which seems to be improving). Whatever it is, Silva has a chance to establish himself as one of the UFC's biggest stars by demolishing Franklin for a second consecutive time.

I will admit to being completely taken by Silva's charismatic personality and in-ring ability. He moves with a fluid precision unseen in other fighters, excepting Georges St-Pierre on his best day. His striking is so crisp and accurate I think he could easily move up to 205 and beat men 20-30 pounds heavier. I've watched the clinic he put on against Franklin their first go around multiple times and it still gives me chills.

That doesn't mean Silva will walk through Franklin again. Though Franklin never confirmed an injury or distraction leading up to their first fight, I still believe something had to be affecting Franklin. He was not the same fighter. For one of the UFC's top guys to lose so uncharacteristically suggests something had to be going on outside of the octagon. Hopefully Franklin's decision to cloister himself before his rematch will provide a more evenly matched fight this time out.

Still, I don't think a victory is in the cards for Franklin. Neither of Franklin's comeback victories have provided him with a test that will translate into this fight. Beating consecutive ground fighters lacking the athleticism of Silva doesn't prove that Franklin will be able to handle things this time out. It also doesn't answer whether Franklin has out to bed the psychological damage that losing in such dramatic, decisive fashion can render. Franklin looked somewhat tentative his last time out. A hint of conservatism will spell an early end for Franklin this Saturday.

I doubt Franklin will find himself in the clinch again. The only real way he has of beating Silva is via ground and pound. While Franklin may risk another KO by attempting to take Silva down via the clinch, it can be done. The key will be whether Franklin can achieve anything against Silva once the fight hits the mat. Marquardt couldn't Lutter couldn't. I see no reason to believe Franklin will.

I also don't think there's any chance this fight isn't exciting. I am eagerly anticipating this fight. So I guess that's what sets UFC 77 apart from 78. The cards may be relatively equal when all things are considered, but there isn't a fight on the 78 card that has be as amped up as Silva v. Franklin II.
Prediction: Silva by TKO.


CONCLUSION

Enjoy UFC 77 and, as always, let me know what you think about the event afterwards. Take care everyone.