Heavy Handed 10.18.07: A Primer on Betting Mixed Martial Arts
Posted by Joe Newman on 10.18.2007
So you want to bet on mixed martial arts but don't know where to start? Here are some pointers you might want to keep in mind before placing those bets on this weekend's UFC 77.
Hello, my name is Joe and I'm a degenerate gambler. Not necessarily a good gambler, mind you, just a degenerate one.
I once sat at a poker table for 34 hours straight as a hurricane raged outside. Before they invented online betting, I used to place bets on NFL games through a guy I knew only as Lefty. I can't bowl a frame or hit a golf ball unless there's money at stake.
I took my stepsons to the greyhound track once and made a couple hundred dollars by letting the boys pick all the races on the basis of which dogs relieved themselves on the way to the gates. I'm such an action junkie, I've even placed bets on NBA games (not something I'd recommend to the faint hearted).
So you can imagine what it was like when I started following mixed martial arts a couple years ago. Remember those old commercials where one guy is munching a chocolate bar and he runs into a guy eating peanut butter? It was like that.
There might not be a better wagering activity in the world than betting on mixed martial arts.
Football is still king but it has its drawbacks. You can be quite miserable going into the fourth quarter knowing there's no way the Patriots and Dolphins are going to hit the over. (And what the heck were you doing betting the over with the Dolphins?)
With mixed martial arts, there's almost always a chance that the bet can go either way. What makes it so exciting is that even the biggest underdog (Did someone say Matt Serra?) can pull off the upset with a single well-timed, well-placed punch.
Here are a few things the neophyte sports gambler should know about wagering on MMA:
Question: What's the most important thing I need to know?
Answer: It all starts with the "money line" assigned to each fighter. When you find the odds on a bout, you'll notice that next to a fighter's name is a number that has either a "+" or a "-" sign in front of it. That number is the money line.
If you look at the odds for the UFC heavyweight fight between Tim Sylvia and Brandon Vera, you'll notice that Sylvia's money line is +125, while Vera is listed as -155.
The fighter with the negative number is always the favorite, with one exception and that's when the fight is considered a tossup and both fighters are listed as -115.
In this case, if you bet $100 on Sylvia to win, your bet would return $225 with a Sylvia victory. That's your original $100, plus $125 in profit.
If you bet on Vera, you'd have to bet $155 to win $100. So, if you placed $100 on Vera, your bet would return $164.52 with a Vera victory. That's your original $100, plus $64.52 profit.
We could discuss the different mathematic equations behind these payouts, but why? There are several calculators online that help you figure out the payouts and odds associated with money lines. I use the tools at Smartcapper.com
Q: Now that I understand money lines, where can I place my bet?
A: Fortunately, for those of us who don't live in Las Vegas, sports betting has never been easier thanks to the internet. There are dozens of online sports books out there that you can choose from.
Some hardcore gamblers have accounts with several different websites so that they can shop for the best odds. For example, if you want to place a bet on Anderson Silva for this weekend's UFC 77, you can check Sportsbook.com and see that his money line is -205, while over at BetUs.com his money line is -210. However, at Bodoglife.com Silva's money line is at -190.
So, if you're a bargain shopper, you'd place your bet on Silva at Bodoglife where he's paying the best.
The problem with this is that you've got to open up accounts at multiple sportsbooks. I like to keep all my action at one sportsbook that I trust. If I don't like the odds that my book is offering on a particular fight, I'll either dial back the amount I'm wagering or pass on the fight, entirely.
Q: So, if I'm certain that Silva is going to win, I should place a bet on him no matter what the odds are, right?
A: While betting the favorite makes common sense and may make you some money in the short term, I don't think it's a smart strategy over the long run.
On the other hand, always betting underdogs because they return the most money is an even quicker path to going bust.
Instead, you should look for cases where a sportsbook's odds seem a little off, if even just a little bit. This can happen for a lot reasons but usually happens because the bookies want to drive action one way or the other so that they won't go bust if an underdog pulls off an upset.
An astute gambler looks for these situations where he has a slight edge and takes advantage of them.
Let's use the Silva-Franklin fight as an example.
By using our online calculator, we can see that Bodog has Silva as a 65.52 percent favorite, while Franklin is given a 39.22 percent chance of winning.
You could make the argument that this fight is a tossup because rematches often favor the loser of the first fight and, in this case, UFC 77 is taking place in Franklin's hometown, which means he'll have the crowd on his side.
If you believe that Franklin has a 50 percent chance of winning, then you're getting tons of value by placing a bet on Franklin.
However, you could also argue that based on how Silva manhandled Franklin the first time they fought and how they've looked in their last few fights, Silva should be no less than a 70 percent favorite.
If this is the case, then you're getting about a 5 percent edge by taking Silva.
In fact, if you believe Silva should be a 70 percent favorite, you've got a statistical edge with Silva at any book where the money line is -235 or less.
Q: So does the sportsbook know something we don't by making Silva only a 65 percent favorite?
A: There is certainly the chance they may have some inside information that makes them believe the fight is going to be much closer this time around. Professional handicappers search out every scrap of information they can get and may even have sources who have given them inside information about a fighter's mental or physical state that isn't widely known.
There's also a chance bookies are trying to entice bettors to place money on Silva because they expect a lot of the money to go toward Franklin. Franklin is a very popular fighter and there's always the tendency to pull for the underdog. He's also going to attract bets from people who believe the location of the fight will make a big difference.
And then there's the third possibility that the odds are exactly where they should be.
Q: So, how should I place my bets on UFC 77.
A: I typically don't place a bet unless I've had time to research a fight, meaning I've tried to read everything I can about a fighter leading up to a fight and have watched video of his last couple fights so that I have a good idea of his strengths, weaknesses and tendencies.
In this case, I'm going to pass on most of the fights on the card.
However, I like Vera at -155. At those odds, he's about a 61 percent favorite. Vera is at a size disadvantage but he's got better all-around skills and is more athletic. He has also looked very impressive in running his record to 8-0. Syliva got dominated in his last fight and is coming off back surgery.
I also wonder if Stephan Bonnar might be a little overvalued at -325 in his fight against Eric Shafer. There's a chance that the UFC is trying to build Bonnar back up by giving him another winnable match. There's not much video available on Shafer but he's got solid ground skills and could make it difficult for Bonnar if the fight goes to the ground. This is a case where I might put a "value" bet on Shafer or no bet at all. While I think Bonnar will likely win, I'm not sure it's worth risking $100 to win $30.
The best fight on the card is also the one that I think is the best betting opportunity. I think that Silva is a bargain at -190. Silva is such a skilled fighter and such an accurate striker, it's hard to see any area where Franklin will have an edge. Silva has shown improvement in every fight he's had since his last fight with Franklin. The guy is scary good.
You can be sure that Franklin has been training extensively against the Muay Thai clinch. But you wonder if there's anyone he could have brought into camp that could effectively prepare him for Silva's level of Muay Thai.
Got a comment, question or column idea? Contact Joe Newman by clicking below or reach him at his blog, Cage Buzz.
