MMA Analytics 10.22.07: The Aftermath of UFC 77
Posted by Leland Roling on 10.22.2007
Last night's UFC 77 event in Cincinnati, Ohio produced many more questions than it did answers. The Middleweight division seems to be at a standstill now that Silva has solidified his dominant position at the top of the heap. Who can help this division become more competitive? A better question is who could possibly give Silva some competition? After Sylvia's lackluster win over Brandon Vera, what is the Heavyweight division beginning to look like? Will Lesnar have a major impact in the UFC? We'll answer these questions and more in this edition of MMA Analytics.
On Saturday night in Cincinnati, Ohio, Anderson Silva proved that even with an entire arena booing his entrance and cheering loudly for his opponent, home field advantage doesn't matter. Silva crushed Franklin with surgical strikes that seemed to be coming from the tomahawk missiles in his knees. His dominating blows and clinch work were once again too much for the Ohio native to handle. In the heavyweight matchup between Tim Sylvia and Brandon Vera, Sylvia was able to secure a decision victory over Vera in what was perceived as a lackluster performance from both fighters. Vera broke his hand in the first round of the matchup, but managed to win the second round with a takedown and a flurry of kicks at the end of the round. Sylvia used his immense size to clinch Vera for most of the fight causing a huge amount of booing for a majority of the matchup. We'll take a look at all of the fights as well as answer some key questions in the aftermath of the event? Where does the middleweight division go from here? How does the heavyweight matchups look to be working out? Who was impressive in their victories and looks to be making a name for themselves? We'll answer those questions and more in this addition of MMA Analytics.
Other great battles of the evening
Rich Franklin's Brazilian ju-jitsu instructor, Jorge Gurgel, also had a battle at UFC 77 against UFC rookie Alvin Robinson. Robinson was handled in the first round of the fight by Gurgel's great ju-jitsu, but Gurgel was unable to mount any kind of offense as Robinson played the chess match perfectly to avoid any danger. Once the second round began, Gurgel apparently forgot that when trying to secure an armbar, quickness and transition skills trump ju-jitsu skills. Gurgel constantly tried to grab Robinson's arm while he ate huge punches. Robinson continued to beat Gurgel senseless for two rounds and won an easy decision victory.
I was rather impressed with Robinson's performance for a number of reasons. His ju-jitsu skills came in handy during their chess match in the first round. He was able to recognize potentially dangerous positions. His power during the second and third round was evident. He was easily posturing up in the guard and bombing Gurgel with blows. It didn't help that Gurgel was too busy concentrating on securing the arm rather than blocking blows and trying to transition to the armbar quickly. It was a classic example of why transitional MMA is a huge part of being successful on the ground. Although I picked Alvin to beat Florian in his first UFC bout, he didn't disappoint me this time.
Stephan Bonnar managed to impress many MMA fans by defeating Eric Schafer by technical knockout in the second round of their matchup. For the most part, the predictions were that this battle would go to a decision and Bonnar finished it fairly easily. He was able to take Schafer down and posture up in his guard fairly easily. I expected Bonnar's size to be a problem for Schafer and it definitely was a problem. He was unable to move Bonnar from his near mount position. Schafer showed some decent ju-jitsu skills in the first round, but could not stop the size and power of Bonnar in the second.
Alan Belcher finally showed up to a fight where he didn't have a ridiculously short notice to show. Belcher has taken his last two bouts in less than two weeks notice. Belcher showed up for this fight. He used superior Muay Thai skills, awesome clinch work, and great knee strikes to hurt Starnes badly. Starnes had a gaping cut above his right eye that ended up stopping the fight in the second round. The biggest surprise from my perspective was Starnes's boxing skills. His striking was much improved as he threw some great flurries during the first round. Starnes will be back.
Rounding out the other bouts, Yushin Okami won a uninspiring unanimous decision over Jason MacDonald. I won't say too much about this fight, it was a typical fight that Okami pushed forward and used some decent flurries in the second, but safely won it by decision. Demian Maia showed why he won the Abu Dhabi Combat Club's grappling tournament this year, he has great submissions. Jensen couldn't stop a choke hold that Maia basically waited for. It wasn't an impressive performance by Maia, but Jensen didn't do much to stop it. Burkman gassed inside five minutes, but somehow won a split decision over Forrest Petz. In the fight of the night, Grice edged out Black in an upset victory. It was definitely full of excitement and I feel bad for Jason Black. A very good wrestler who has just not had the luck in the Octagon.
Where does the Middleweight Division go from here?
With Anderson Silva's destructive victory over the #1 contender in Rich Franklin, where does the Middleweight Division go from here? In my opinion, the division is unbelievably weak. Anderson Silva, after tonight, is probably at the top of the pound for pound list. His dominance is unparalleled in any division. He basically was able to just pick apart the #1 contender like he was a child putting on the gloves for the first time. When you have a champion that dominant at the top of the division, the entire division of fighters take a huge step down.
Who can even challenge Anderson Silva at the top of this division? Dan Henderson has decided to go against what the UFC wants and stay at the Light Heavyweight Division. My thoughts are that he feels the money is better in that division due to all the names up there. Henderson fighting guys like Okami and MacDonald wouldn't make me want to buy a pay-per-view, but Henderson taking on Silva would be a fantastic bout. Two guys with outstanding power, but Henderson has a dominating Greco-Roman background against Silva's Brazilian ju-jitsu background. It would be a fairly good fight. Other than that, who else is even around to take on Silva? The answer is nobody. Paulo Filho is a friend of Anderson Silva, he will not fight him. Denis Kang is signed with K-1 Hero's, but I doubt he could take Silva based on the fact that Kang relies heavily on his power punches. Jason "Mayhem" Miller looks to have been released from his Zuffa contract with WEC, and is heading toward EliteXC. Miller would get a wake-up call and killed by Silva's superior striking. Frank Trigg? I am a big advocate of his no bullshit attitude, but Trigg's skills are not up for a Silva fight.
Who is a legitimate opponent besides Henderson or Filho? Matt Lindland is always a possibility. Lindland's great wrestling and power may be able to stop Silva's clinch from devastating him against the fence. I doubt it, but Lindland is a formidable opponent to anyone at the top of the Middleweight division. Michael Bisping has been thrown around as well. To be honest, I'd love to see this fight for one reason, the destruction of the UFC-made UK promotional fighter. Lawler is another possibility as he could make a return after his stint in EliteXC. To be honest, Lawler's reach would be a problem because he doesn't have any. Silva could just pick him apart. If Lawler could get inside though, Silva would have to seriously watch out for the huge uppercuts from Lawler. His power is a big factor in that kind of matchup.
With all of that said, the Middleweight Division in the UFC is in serious trouble of being swept under the rug for a long time. With uninspiring contenders in Jason MacDonald and Yushin Okami and a destroyed Rich Franklin who cannot seem to figure out how to beat the champ, we won't be seeing any test of Anderson Silva's skills. Who can test his skills? Right now, nobody can. He is one of the most dominant fighters in the sport today.
Heavyweight division roundup
With Sylvia's win over Brandon Vera, where is the division heading now that the title has been vacated by Randy Couture? First off, White stated in the pre-event press conference that Couture is still the UFC Heavyweight Champion. I assume that he will talk with Couture and figure out his intentions after he warns him of the consequences of breaking his contract. I imagine Couture will return to the cage as well. But in the event that Couture doesn't come back and truly vacates the position, what will happen? According to reports earlier this week, Sylvia would now take on the granite chinned grappling extraordinaire in Antonio "Minotauro" Nogueira. The odd part about all of this is that Sylvia called out the French Muay Thai fighter, Cheick Kongo, after his victory. Is Tim looking to prove himself against a big guy as well or is he trying to avoid Nogueira for the time being? To be perfectly honest, I wouldn't mind seeing both fights. Kongo is a strong striker with devastating knees, much more destructive that Vera's knees in the clinch. Nogueira is a world class grappler who has fought men much bigger than himself. Think Bob Sapp. Both battles would be decent buys on an UFC event even though Sylvia had a lackluster performance. In all honesty, I'm not a fan of Tim Sylvia. The one thing I didn't want to see him do against Vera... he did. He clinched him into the cage for most of the fight causing an unbelievably boring fight that was probably trumped by chicks fighting in the crowd.
Now, here's when all my readers can jump me because of my single view on one fighter in the Heavyweight division. Mirko "Crocop" Filipovic now has a great chance to steamroll up the ranks again. With Couture out and Vera losing his fight, it sets up a possible battle between Vera and Crocop. Crocop sustained a broken ribs, numerous groin shots, and apparently had a deviated septum that caused nearly 50% of his cardio capacity to be lost according to his doctor and reports. Maybe these are excuses, but if you were in the ring fighting a gigantic French fighter who was kneeing you while you tried to escape his clinches and you couldn't breath, you would be very pissed off to find out the real reason why you were gassed unbelievably. With that said, Crocop did look improved in his fight with Kongo. He was able to get Kongo to the floor and won the first round decisively. With more training, we could see a resurgence.
The big announcement at the event that had a big impact on what will happen in the division was the signing of Brock Lesnar to a UFC contract. The ex-pro wrestler has an extensive amateur wrestling background. He was 106-5 in his college wrestling career and 1-0 in his MMA career. He stated during the broadcast that he has been training in wrestling for 18 years and for about 2 years in the game of MMA. He will be a force in the division with his immense size and strength. Will he have the grappling skills to avoid submissions? Only time will tell, but I imagine someone like Nogueira, who is used to taking on big challenges, may be able to come out on top against a guy like Lesnar. Lesnar also seems to have a short reach and will have a disadvantage in the striking department as well.
Impressive wins that could impact divisional matchups
Demian Maia had an impressive debut, although his submission skills weren't shown off extensively. He's a champion ADCC grappler, but will he be able to improve his striking enough to become a dominant fighter in the Middleweight division? It'll be a test of time to see whether Demian improves enough to become a force in the upper tier of the division. In my opinion, he won't be able to improve his striking enough to take on guys like Okami and MacDonald that seem to have some decent hands to go along with extensive ground games.
Matt Grice showed in his first battle against Terry Etim that he had some powerful wrestling. He did eventually get caught in a guillotine choke, but those skills definitely showed again in his battle with Jason Black. Black, also an accomplished wrestler, was defeated in a split decision. Grice doesn't have the skills yet to make a huge run toward the top. Mainly, his submission defense skills will have to improve extensively to guard against the ground games of guys like Florian, Penn, and many others. He also needs to improve his striking ten-fold to compete with guys like Huerta. We'll see more of him, but he needs improvement in all areas.
Alvin Robinson looked outstanding. He needs to add some power to his striking, but his grappling was very effective and his body control and escapes worked spectacularly against Gurgel's ju-jitsu. He had the power to move in and out of guard fairly easily as well. He may be a guy that could make some waves toward the top if his training with Royce Gracie improves and his strength improves. Look out for Alvin Robinson.
Final Thoughts
Overall, UFC 77 had some issues as far as talent on the card. There were many fights that could have pushed the pace more, but the main event didn't disappoint. Although it wasn't a war, it did end in stunning fashion with Silva coming out on top again in destructive fashion. The UFC's announcement of Brock Lesnar to the heavyweight division is a great move because it locks up another fighter that Fedor will not be able to fight, but also adds to an already good division that could use a guy like Lesnar to bolster buys and the quality of the division. We should all look forward to seeing what he can do in the cage.
