Intelligently Defending 11.8.07: Pick Your TUF6 Pony

Posted by Ken Kobel on 11.07.2007

The latest season of 'The Ultimate Fighter' has reached the halfway point. As always, Intelligently Defending is here to take a closer look at the remaining fighters and give out some odds on who will win it all.

Note: The following column contains NO spoilers.

This past year has been huge for the credibility of The Ultimate Fighter.

Throughout the past twelve months it has become apparent that the fighters from the series are legitimate threats – not reality television stars. Matt Serra captured UFC gold, Forrest Griffin choked out Shogun, Keith Jardine beat Chuck Liddell and Joe Stevenson tore up the lightweight ranks. The housemates made their mark.

Even the most stubborn of naysayers were forced to give TUF alumni their due.

We are now halfway through another season of the series that propelled the UFC into mainstream America, and so far so good. There have been exciting fights, some decent drama, and several occasions in which it looked like Matt Hughes' head might actually explode.

The field has been cut in half and it is now time to start the quarterfinals. As always, Intelligently Defending is ready to break down the remaining competition.

Again, the order of analysis is based on the episode in the season in which the fighter won.

Let's get busy…

The Field

1. Mac Danzig -- Record: 16-4-1

First Round Fight: defeated Joey Scarola via submission Rd. 1

If this competition were a job interview, Mac Danzig would be hired over the other castmates without hesitation.

His credentials far surpass anyone else on this season. Danzig is a former King of the Cage champion, a former Gladiator Challenge champion, and has fought in PRIDE FC. Often times this season it looked as if Mac was insulted by having to endure TUF process instead of being brought straight into the UFC based on his accomplishments.

In the season's first episode, Danzig dispatched of Joey Scarola with a triangle choke late in the first round. Mac displayed the slick grappling that he has become known for throughout his career. Eight of his sixteen professional wins have come via submission.

While Danzig has not been winning any popularity contests in the house, it is clear that the other fighters respect his skills. Blake Bowman once mentioned that the Team Hughes members looked up to Mac. One of Bowman's quotes was something along the lines of ‘we look at him as a leader since we all know who he is and have seen his fights.'

The one flaw that can be found against Danzig's is that he normally fights at 155-pounds. This could be trouble if he runs into a superior wrestler that can hold him down for a decision.

Still, he is the huge favorite to win it all.

Intelligently Defending Odds: 1-1

2. Matt Arroyo -- Record: 2-1

First Round Fight: defeated Dorian Price via submission Rd. 1

Say, did anybody remember that Matt Arroyo was still part of this cast?

The upstate New York native has flown completely under the radar since defeating Dorian Price on the second episode of the season. To Matt's credit, the lack of camera time probably means he isn't a complete dimwit and is content to quietly go about his business.

Matt showed nice ground-skills in his fight with Price. He dragged the striker to the canvas and unleashed some sharp ground n' pound. He eventually finished things with a rear-naked choke. Arroyo also displayed a solid jaw when he kept his composure after eating a viscous knee from Dorian early in the bout.

Matt's biggest challenge is going to be his lack of experience. Arroyo is only 24-years-old and has potential. Still, at this point he has only three professional fights with his first bout coming slightly over a year ago. This could be a problem when he battles one of the more seasoned cast members.

Winning this competition would be a big upset.

Intelligently Defending Odds: 25-1

3. John Kolosci -- Record: 8-4

First Round Fight: defeated Billy Miles via submission Rd. 1

John Kolosci may very well be the man most responsible for the Team Hughes downward spiral.

This is because in the season's third episode, Kolosci scored a big upset when he defeated Billy Miles in a fight picked by Matt Hughes. It was all downhill from there for the former champion and his merry band of underachievers.

John showed great tenacity in the fight. Miles was considered by most to be the best wrestler in the competition, but Kolosci did not let this faze him. Early in the first round John bull-rushed Billy and scored a takedown of his own. Miles was shocked and never recovered. John soon secured a guillotine and got the win.

Kolosci is a gamer with some experience under his belt. He sports a mediocre record with his wins coming against journeymen. He has solid ground skills, but his biggest advantage in this competition will be size. John is a large welterweight and most of his fights have been at 185-pounds. He may be able to use this advantage against many of the remaining fighters that normally compete at 155-pounds.

A possible dark horse?

Intelligently Defending Odds: 10-1

4. Richie Hightower -- Record: 7-1

First Round Fight: defeated Blake Bowman via TKO Rd. 1

Well, someone had to fight Bowman.

And to his credit, Richie Hightower gave him a beating. It was hard to gauge much from the performance since it ended so quickly, but from the looks of it Richie has solid hands.

Still, other aspects of his game remain a mystery.

Serra's reason for choosing the fight was that he thought Hightower ‘deserved to get to the next round.' This would lead us to believe that Matt didn't have much faith in Richie to beat anyone else since Bowman was universally considered the worst fighter in the house.

Hightower's hands looked good against Bowman, so it must be his ground game that lacks. This is going to be a big problem for him when he has to fight one of the better ground-technicians. Richie is another fighter that normally fights at 185-pounds and he will need to use this extra size to prevent getting taken to the ground.

Richie will benefit from the fact that Serra seems to like him, since Matt will be choosing the quarterfinal matches. No matter what though, he will eventually have to defeat a strong grappler if he wants to win it all.

It's a longshot.

Intelligently Defending Odds: 20-1

5. Troy Mandaloniz -- Record: 2-1

First Round Fight: defeated Paul Georgieff via KO Rd. 1

Troy Mandaloniz is another fighter that we don't know a whole lot about. He sure does throw bombs though.

Troy defeated Paul Georgieff with a huge right hand that knocked his opponent cold. Outside of that punch the fight was uneventful although, when Paul pulled guard he never came close to catching Troy in anything.

A good friend of B.J. Penn, Mandaloniz will have a solid ground game if it gets tested. However, there is no doubt that Troy would rather keep a fight on the feet. This could lead to some exciting quarterfinal bouts since there are a number of fighters who would be willing to stand with him.

Though he is already 27-years-old, Troy has only three professional fights and his last win came all the way back in the early part of 2005. This inexperience and sporadic fighting can be a problem for him later in the competition. Remember, whoever reaches the finals will have to win three fights in a span of six weeks.

Don't bank on him becoming the next ‘Ultimate Fighter.'

Intelligently Defending Odds: 15-1

6. Ben Saunders -- Record: 4-0-2

First Round Fight: defeated Dan Barrera via majority decision

Let's get one thing straight – the scoring in the Saunders/Barrera fight was not nearly as bad as it was made out to be.

Dan landed the bigger shot in the first when he dropped Ben, but that was basically all the offense he had. In that round, Saunders landed a huge punch of his own which dropped Barrera. Apart from that, Ben was cleaner and landed more of his strikes which could have easily given him the round. Then the second clearly belonged to Saunders.

Granted, the first round was close, but it wasn't the travesty that Hughes thought it was.

Anyway, in the fight Ben showed that he is able to use his long limbs to his advantage. He kept Barrera at bay and threw a wide array of punches, kicks and knees. Saunders even showed ground prowess when in the first he nearly caught Dan in an armbar.

Saunders is a member of American Top Team and has yet to taste defeat in his young MMA career. He appears to have well-rounded skills and his height is going to be a huge asset in this competition.

An intriguing pick.

Intelligently Defending Odds: 8-1

7. George Sotiropoulos -- Record 7-2

First Round Fight: defeated Jared Rollins via KO

Can you believe George wouldn't wake up his teammates? How else are these grown men supposed to get up before 10:30am? The nerve...

In his fight with Jared Rollins, George showed powerful hands. This was impressive since his biggest strength is considered to be his ground-game. While he didn't get a chance to display his grappling against J-Rock, George will be a threat on the mat with anyone still remaining.

Sotiropoulos' first round win came against the toughest of the eliminated fighters. Jared could have gone far in the tournament if he would have fought an easier opponent. This is good news for George since there is a solid chance he will now have an easier quarterfinal opponent than he had in the first round.

George boasts the most impressive resume of anyone on the show outside of Danzig. He holds a 7-2 record and has fought the likes of Shinya Aoki in the Shooto organization. George is another fighter who usually competes at 155-pounds. He will be at a size disadvantage against a lot of the remaining fighters, but his ability should be enough to take him far in the tournament.

A definite contender.

Intelligently Defending Odds: 4-1

8. Tommy Speer -- Record: 9-1

First Round Fight: defeated Jon Koppenhaver via unanimous decision

This last fight was a big win for Team Hughes. Sending just one fighter to the quarterfinals would have been a disaster.

Tommy showed a lot of heart by escaping his early trouble in the fight with Koppenhaver. That choke was deep and it looked bleak for Speer. The fight was all Tommy after he got out of danger. He had full mount and side control for extended periods of time and it would have been more encouraging to see him finish this fight.

Even though he was not able to finish, Speer displayed some nice wrestling. The rest of his game remains a question. He didn't want to stay on his feet for more than five seconds which is a concern. Also, he looked to have plans for an armbar in the fight but as soon as he went for the attempt Hughes immediately screamed ‘no, no.' It didn't sound like Matt had much faith in Tommy's BJJ.

A good wrestler is always a threat in TUF, but Speer's skills seem to be too raw at this point. With more advanced training at a better camp his career could go places. This is a few years away though.

Look elsewhere for a winner.

Intelligently Defending Odds: 12-1

Take your pick and see how things turn out. There should be plenty of action from here on out.

That's all for this week. As always feedback is strongly encouraged – you are guaranteed a personal response. What are your thoughts on the season? Who do you think will win? Have a favorite TUF6 moment? Want to discuss something completely unrelated in the world of MMA? Send some thoughts to [e-mail]