MMA Analytics 12.03.07: UFC Roundup
Posted by Leland Roling on 12.03.2007
Serra, Hughes, and St. Pierre are all in the Welterweight picture together again. Serra is out, St. Pierre is in for UFC 79, Hughes may have a tough situation in the division. Dana White also made recent comments regarding Couture and Fedor during a radio interview. We'll look at a roundup of the welterweight picture, Hughes's situation, and Dana White's comment all in this edition of MMA Analytics.
This week has been a busy one in the UFC. News came down within the past couple of weeks that Matt Serra had to pull out of his title defense matchup with Matt Hughes due to two herniated disks in his back. Serra described the ordeal on multiple podcast interviews as being unbelievable pain, enough to cause him to be unable to walk. We'll check out the details of the new matchup at UFC 79: Nemesis as well as recent comments made by Dana White regarding the Randy Couture situation, and some other news tidbits in the UFC.
Welterweight title picture
After the announcement of Serra's injury, the UFC scrambled over the Thanksgiving break to find a suitable replacement that would still draw fans to watch the UFC's end of the year card. The big names in the division began to see light of day again. Jon Fitch, Josh Koscheck, and Thiago Alves all were names that were mentioned. Fitch seems like the most likely candidate to challenge for the title as he has been on a wicked tear in the UFC and in his career overall. He's currently riding a 14-fight win streak, 7 of those bouts in the UFC. His most recent fight saw him defeating Diego Sanchez in a close split decision at UFC 76. Reportedly, Fitch told the UFC that he would be unable to take the fight due to the fact that he would be in Vietnam attending to personal matters, according to MMAmania.com.
Koscheck and Alves were other suggestions, but Koscheck has a lackluster performance against George St. Pierre and was defeated handily by the French Canadian. Giving him a contender bout after being defeated by another contender seems contradictory of the UFC's matchmaking. Alves just recently fought, but he still hasn't had enough impressive wins to garner a huge step up in competition. The solution: Georges St. Pierre.
According to reports, either George St. Pierre's representation called the UFC to make it known that he was available or the UFC called his team to ask if he was available. Either way, St. Pierre accepted on short notice the challenge to fight a rubber match against Matt Hughes at UFC 79, essentially saving the event's second big fight of the night. In reality, this fight is much bigger than the original Serra vs. Pierre matchup.
With this rubber match set, it will allow for a clear contender matchup for Matt Serra. Barring a horrible analysis of Serra's injury, we should see the title fight some time by Spring of next year. There are some interesting overtones to this fight though. For instance, Hughes and Pierre are now fighting for an "interim" title belt. Why? My reasoning behind this is to cause the fight to be a five round battle instead of a three round battle, and according to Serra's interview with Sherdog.com, this was the exact reasoning by Dana White and company. What happens in the long run between these three fighters?
Essentially, Hughes could lose his shot at the whole deal after he was in position to obtain the title. If Pierre decimates Hughes, Hughes will sit below both Pierre and Serra once again. Pierre would move on to rematch Matt Serra for the real Welterweight title, and Hughes will be teetering on the matchups of Koscheck or Fitch. To me, this is a horrible position for Hughes who was in line for the title. The consensus throughout the MMA community is that Hughes really has no area in his skillset that is better than St. Pierre's skillset. I would tend to agree, but it's possible we could see an explosive Matt Hughes. Serra, on the other hand, has a tough way back to defending his "real" title. Back injuries of his nature are fairly hard to completely heal, so we'll see if we event see him again.
Hughes vs. Silva
One of the other rumors that has circulated for quite some time in the MMA community has been the notion that Hughes would move up to take on Anderson Silva. An interesting matchup of the wrestler vs. the dynamic striker, a fight Hughes has lost before to St. Pierre. The scenario involved Hughes taking the Welterweight title and possibly taking on Silva to obtain two belts simultaneously. He would be one of only two men who have ever done it, the other being Dan Henderson.
Obviously, this fight is becoming much more unlikely unless Hughes can actually stunningly defeat St. Pierre. With Serra being out for quite some time, Fitch and Koscheck required a couple of more bouts, and St. Pierre defeated, Hughes may make the shift to fight Anderson Silva to secure his greatness in MMA history. Think it's a farce? Hughes has mentioned doing this exact fight in the past. Of course, this is all on hold until Dan Henderson takes on Silva at UFC 82.
Dana White comments on Couture
A key interview came out this past week from Sacramento sports talk radio host Dave Carmichael. He has had success in the past for a number of years of getting some great interviews with White and his last interview was no exception. The two best quotes from the interview involved Randy Couture's current situation. White hinted that we should "stay tuned" to the details behind Couture's current contract situation. He also eluded to the fact that we should "never say never" when looking at the Fedor vs. Couture situation. Very interesting quotes that should be looked at against the historical track record of the UFC.
I want to point out some speculative points. First, when someone tells you to "stay tuned" for news about a situation, it usually means that we will hear what we either want to hear, or there is some new news that is beneficial to the situation. This isn't always the case, but I think Dana White is hinting at a possible return of Randy Couture. Is it a surprise? Not in my mind. Reports have come out regarding the Zuffa contract details, their retirement and refusal clauses, and they have all pointed to the fact that Couture must either fulfill his contract or officially retire from the sport and never fight again, otherwise he would still be under contract.
The scenarios available are extensive, but the most likely one involves a re-negotiation of Couture's contract with more money involved. Couture mans up and fights Nogueira. After that, who knows what the possibilities will be. Regarding Fedor, White mentioned that we should "never say never". A different tone as opposed to previous statements regarding brining in non-exclusive fighters. White has eluded to the fact that he would never do such a thing. He also regarded Fedor as "overhyped" and not "top 5", but still remains hot on his trail.
I've received some complaints regarding my view on this, and I can tell you that most of them are uninformed. Fact is, Fedor is non-exclusive to M-1 Global and can be "rented" by any organization for the right amount of money, and money is what the UFC has. Think about this scenario and get back to me. Couture fights Nogueira, if he wins, great, more speculation on who is the best in the world. If he loses, he isn't champion, and could set up a retirement fight of the century with Fedor. Even if Couture wins, he could be thinking about ending his career. End it on the greatest fight ever, a non-title fight with Fedor for the ultimate title of best in the world. It's a wishful possibility, but could happen.
Final thoughts
St. Pierre should beat Hughes, and then Hughes will be really in a tough spot in the division. He may think about retiring, or simply trying to move up to take on Silva if Henderson loses. Either way, it's not a great situation for Hughes unless he wins.
Dana White is starting to churn the rumor mill, although most of my theories are probably wishful. I do believe Couture will be back in the cage as I don't think White would want Couture working for HDNet Fights in a management capacity or taking his name to another promotion for the Fedor super fight. Will White rent Fedor for one huge battle to end all battles for Couture? Who knows, but it'd be a great feat if Zuffa and White could pull it off. Something to think about and get the minds churning throughout the MMA community.
