MMA Analytics 01.14.07: UFC's Welterweights Suddenly Stagnant
Posted by Leland Roling on 01.14.2008
With Georges St. Pierre's recent win over Matt Hughes, it seems that Pierre has become a dominant opponent for nearly everyone in the Welterweight division. This poses problems of who will be able to matchup against Pierre in the future, much like the situation with Anderson Silva at Middleweight. We'll look at the current situation in the Welterweight division, comparisons to the Middleweights, and fixes that the UFC can implement to reclaim a challenging upper tier of matchups for the division. All of that and more in this edition of MMA Analytics.
UFC 79 excited us at the end of 2007 with a two great Light Heavyweight showdowns and the eventual destruction of UFC legend Matt Hughes at the hands of Georges St. Pierre. Pierre's wrestling crushed Hughes, and his jiu-jitsu was able to land him in a prime position to secure a wicked armbar that finished Hughes. The fight propelled Pierre into a role that many consider to be fatal to the weight divisions of the UFC, a sole dominating force at the top of the division. Is this type of phenomenon devastating to the UFC's divisional lineups? Can the UFC maintain enough scouting to fill these divisions back up? Let's take a brief look inside the idea of a dominant champion with little challenge in sight.
Welterweight Division's current situation
Before the latest matchup between Hughes and Pierre, the Welterweight Division was sitting pretty in the middle of the UFC's list of divisions. Nobody had really paid attention to the division since it did have a solid upper-echelon of fighters. Matt Hughes, Georges St. Pierre, and Matt Serra were all within the title picture with Serra holding the belt. Serra's back injury had a snowball effect that caused the doors to open up.
Many fans have asked, "What happens now?". Pierre has destroyed Hughes, and will most likely demolish Matt Serra. Barring another fatal mistake by Pierre, the division should have a dominant champ in Pierre much like the Middleweight division. This causes problems for a number of reasons.
First and foremost, the Welterweight division is lacking in talent. This was the major problem that many of us didn't see until after the recent matchup unfolded. It hasn't always been this way however. Many recent matchups told the story regarding the talent that was nearing the top of the division. Koscheck was stopped by Pierre. Sanchez was narrowly defeated by Jon Fitch, and lost a lackluster decision to Koscheck. Parisyan continues to win fights without finishing, something the UFC is always looking down on. There also isn't much help that is coming up through the ranks.
Gono and Chonan are the two PRIDE vets who have come over to make a splash in the division. Gono has a chance to move up with a win over Jon Fitch at UFC 82. Chonan sits in the middle of the pack. Both have good experience, but Gono has a much better chance of entering the upper echelon of the division than Chonan. Even with those two experienced fighters in the mix, it isn't a lot of skill to overcome someone like Pierre. Hazelett and Alves are two prospects that could make runs and surprise many, although they will most likely have problems near the top.
Comparing to the Middleweight Division
Interestingly enough, the assessment of the Welterweight division sounds eerily familiar to the situation of the Middleweight division after Anderson Silva completely destroyed Rich Franklin for a second time at UFC 77. Okami was deemed too boring of a fight for Silva, and his contract needed to be negotiated. Both Franklin and Silva had dominated the rest of the competition. With Franklin beating all of the potential contenders and Silva crushing Franklin, there was really no competition for Silva to take on within the current roster.
The UFC remedied the situation by convincing Dan Henderson to drop down to Middleweight to take on Silva, which is stylistically a tough fight for Silva. They also have the rumored possibilities of Hughes or Pierre moving up to take on Silva if Henderson doesn't end up defeating Silva. The obvious point here is that the UFC did make moves and fighters from other divisions made comments that it is a sought after idea to fight the best.
Welterweight fixes
What can the UFC do for the Welterweight division? Well, there have already been a few changes that are intriguing. The UFC signed Yoshiyuki Yoshida to a contract within the last week. If you aren't familiar with Yoshida, he's a Japanese fighter who has been dominating talent within the Cage Force promotion in Japan. Cage Force fights under the MMA rules of the States and many of its fighters are accustomed to using the cage to their advantage in fights. Yoshida should have no problems moving over to the UFC, and it may be the first time many fans see a Japanese import who can be dominant in the cage setting.
Another possibility involves the Lightweight division. BJ Penn has went on record as saying he has wanted to revenge his close loss to Georges St. Pierre at UFC 58. It's a good possibility that his wish will come true. Looking at the current divisional title picture, it could almost be said that the division is worse off than what the Middleweight division was since there isn't any prospects at Middleweight that want to drop down. Penn could make it interesting.
One of the more exciting issues that this opens up is the addition of talent. We've deemed the division on lockdown for a long time, and now it seems that the scouting season could be in full force. Jake Shields has been saying for a long time that he would like to try his luck in the UFC. It'd be a great addition, although Shields has to fulfill his EliteXC contract first. Nick Thompson should be first on their list, especially considering he is 33-9-1 and is in the defunct Bodog FIGHT promotion.
The future for the Welterweight division
It came as a surprise that the Welterweight division was suddenly suffering from a lack of talent below GSP. When a champion is as dominant as St. Pierre or Silva, it creates a problem for talent below to grab attention. This is most likely the case for the shift from focus on the Middleweight division to the Welterweight division. Koscheck, Sanchez, Fitch, and even Gono have good chances at making a splash in the upper-echelon of talent.
The UFC will also likely promote a BJ vs. St. Pierre battle down the line if BJ happens to win the Lightweight title and Pierre wins the "real" Welterweight title. Of course, Matt Serra has the potential to spoil the entire turn of events once again.
Either way, it looks like the UFC is looking at good talent at 170 lbs. The addition of Yoshida was a great move by the UFC, and it'll most likely help other Japanese fighters gauge where they are in their careers as far as skill goes in the cage. A few more additions and we'll have another divisional title picture worth weighing in on.
are you for real? pierre? his name is st.pierre you dolt. would you write an article about jason macdonald and call him 'donald'?
Posted By: GUEST (Guest) on January 14, 2008 at 01:38 AM
This article is in bad need of some editing. Besides the error mentioned about calling St. Pierre, "Pierre", there were numerous grammatical errors.
Posted By: D_Frag (Guest) on January 14, 2008 at 02:59 AM
gotta love the anti-french (or is it anti-Canada) aspect of calling St. Pierre simply Pierre.
Posted By: craig (Guest) on January 14, 2008 at 07:12 AM
I think it is a little presumptuous to consider St. Pierre unbeatable, or at least on the same level as Anderson Silva. St. Pierre looked great against Hughes (no small feat), but went to decision with Koscheck and was stopped by Serra. I don’t think one dominant performance makes him unbeatable. He’s great, I’m not saying otherwise, but I think he needs a couple more decisive victories before we all start wondering if anyone else can beat him.
Posted By: Kuch (Guest) on January 14, 2008 at 11:49 AM
well said..anderson sila is number one p4p..but gsp..as i like to call him..is aclose second...hybred fighters like gsp are the future of mma..
Posted By: Guest#0816 (Guest) on January 14, 2008 at 02:47 PM
well said...but i feel that gsp is aclose second behind anderson...hybred fighters like these 2 are the future of mma..
Posted By: macintosh (Guest) on January 14, 2008 at 02:49 PM
personally i think the ww division is stacked and better than it has ever been!! its only because st. pierre is so good(couple more fights before pound for pound king though)that the rest suddenly look weak
Posted By: brian (Guest) on January 14, 2008 at 06:47 PM
WW division weak? I think this article is weak. They have Title fights lined up for the next year!!! Fitch will win at 82, Karo will win his next fight, then they will fight for top contender spot, Hughes and Serra will fight before Hughes retires, and GSP will fight all commers. Not to mention the last season of TUF was all about WW, yet not one word about Mac Danzig, who looked great in his debut.
Posted By: Andrew (Guest) on January 14, 2008 at 08:40 PM
buddy,who can you name that is deserving of a title shot if/when gsp commits manslaughter on serra? no one if things go as you think they will.... fitch is the next contender i say, he shouldnt have to fight for a number one contendership.... hes on a 14 fight win streak, and even when this fight happens, if gsp wins, who else is there? yes maybe that crazy jap that was just mentioned, but the division is looking pretty empty as of this moment
Posted By: ww is actually pretty weak (Guest) on January 14, 2008 at 10:03 PM
Jap??
youre a fag.
Posted By: booya (Guest) on January 15, 2008 at 02:43 AM
mr roling you better get a new job .. cause mma aint your thing bud!!bj penn wont get past daddy and if he does .. he certainly wont fight sherk!!!so bj penn is done ...
Posted By: macintosh (Guest) on January 15, 2008 at 05:57 AM
Name fighters that would make for good fights with GSP? Well that pretty easy! BJ Penn (the last time they fought it was real close), Karo Parisyan, Sean Sherk (why not?), Diego Sanchez ( if he can win again), Carlos Condit ( so I don't have to hear him call himself the best fighter at 170 anymore). Good enough for you? All fights I would like to see.
Posted By: Top (Guest) on January 15, 2008 at 06:09 AM
This column is all over the place. You say the division is suffering because ST. Pierre is such a dominant champion, (yet isn't the champion yet) and close with how strong the future looks with the addition of Yoshida? What? And you seriously lowball Fitch and Parysian, who are already "upper echelon" at WW. Suspect column, friend.
Posted By: jeff (Guest) on January 15, 2008 at 09:42 AM
GSP has already beaten Karo and destroyed the Steroid Shark. I don't think a fight would BJ would go the same way as the last one. Condit looks pretty good but I've only seen him fight once. To me, Jon Fitch is the only other contender right now.
Posted By: Diavo (Guest) on January 15, 2008 at 11:16 AM
Why are we worried about how his name is spelled jesus get a grip people, Next thing you'll tell me Al Gore invented the Internet... Good article in my opinion
Posted By: reveal (Guest) on January 15, 2008 at 12:25 PM
defunct Bodog Fight promotion? according to whom? they're doing an event in Vegas on Feb 1 fool.
Posted By: Bodogger (Guest) on January 15, 2008 at 12:52 PM
props to diavo...pointless for gsp to go back and cover old ground..fighting people he already beat..even if penn does move up to 170..the fight wont be that close this time..(your right)gsp would demolish penn ina rematch..george has improved alot since that fight ..
Posted By: macintosh.. (Guest) on January 15, 2008 at 03:35 PM
ok get serious Serra is still the Champ he has not been beat by the former champ GSP and until he beats Serra (which wont happen) he wont be the champ. Serra is hurt yes and he will be back take out GSP and no worries hes back on top. Then and only then can you make these ridiculous statements that are being made about GSP being the dominant force
Posted By: Guest#9040 (Guest) on January 16, 2008 at 12:18 AM
ya CLOWN !!! Serra is going down you fool! Recognize luck when you see it idiaat!!!
Posted By: Guest#3415 (Guest) on January 16, 2008 at 02:38 PM
nice to see that you were well educated and learned to spell in school. Talk your trash after the match
Posted By: Guest#5175 (Guest) on January 16, 2008 at 05:32 PM
Wow, you guys are unbelievable.
First off, who cares if I referred to him as "Pierre". The point is that you knew who I was referring to, get over the snobbish tones regarding his name. The general concensus is that he rules the Welterweight division. With that said, your point is still taken.
Second of all, many of you have a lot of faith in the WW talent. I'm surprised, I didn't think the MMA community had this much faith in the division. To be honest, my opinion is one of many, and this is the reason I write, to hear your opinions.
Fitch is not going to give St. Pierre a run for his money, plain and simple. If he can even get past Gono, there is no way Fitch beats Pierre. Who else is there? Serra will have a tough time. I don't see a repeat performance from him. Pierre will be left at the top to fight nobody, just like the Middleweight division was months ago, until Henderson decided to drop down. WW is in the same boat now.
Macintosh, seriously... BJ may have a tough time with Stevenson, but I think he wins, and he'll HAVE TO fight Sherk regardless of what he's said in the past.
Top, I agree, BJ Penn vs. GSP is a good fight, but NOT Karo. Karo would be demolished in my opinion. He has no finishing power where St. Pierre does. Also, Carlos Condit vs. St. Pierre... Give me a break.
To Jeff, Yes, I am lowballing Fitch and Karo as lower competition.. COMPARED TO GSP. To anyone else in the division, they have great chances. I compare Yoshida to a much better Jon Fitch, to be honest.
Bodogger, Bodog has already stated that their promotion will basically become smaller shows, Bodog is defunct and will never be a force.
The most amazing part about these comments is that most of you don't seem to keep up with current MMA news at all. Come on guys, I want some educated, non-crude comments that are actually inventive. Let's go.
Posted By: Leland Roling (Guest) on January 18, 2008 at 12:41 AM
thanks leland..but seriously dude..this is "daddys time"..bj doesnt train properly and relies on his ground game too much..(world champ black belt)..as for gsp..you insulted french canadians by calling him pierre...you may as well have called him peter..im from nova scotia and we take are heroes seriously..(we dont have many)lol...gsp..last name means (saint peter)and here in canada ..he is a saint...all he needs is to avenge the blitz loss to serra...personally i dont think he will geta chance to...serra has a herniated disc...and wont return...imo....also..i agree with you that gsp and anderson are the future..and the future is here now..they are ina class by themselves..watch the distruction of dan henderson..im betting he wont make it through round one!
Posted By: garthmacin (Registered) on January 18, 2008 at 05:20 AM
Don't seem to keep up with MMA news? You say Fitch can't beat GSP. Maybe you should look back at some of the 2007 headlines. Serra beat GSP, Randy beat Big Tim and Gabe, Forrest beat Shogun and I could say a few more but you get the point. To say someone can't be beat is just ignorant. Just cause people didn't like your article doesn't mean they are wrong or un-educated and saying they are makes you look bad. Also to who said Karo and Sherk got beat by GSP already so they shouldn't fight him again. Thats just dumb, just cause they fought in the past (in Karo's case four years ago) is no ression why fighting them again wouldn't make for great fights. Isn't that why we watch? To see good fights. Last the point of saying Carlos Condit vs. St. Pierre would be a good fight was that Carlos Condit and others in the WEC clam to be the best fighters in the world. I don't think they are and would love to see GSP destroy Carlos and see Paulo Filho take on Anderson Silva.
Posted By: Top (Guest) on January 19, 2008 at 04:17 AM
yeah..ok...anderson and filho would be an amazing fight ..but i think anderson is soon gonna move up to 205..also fitch could beat gsp but it is highly unlikely...and yeah form gsps point of view..why go back and fight guys he already beat..unless there was some to dispute to who the winner was..(in a close fight like the penn fight)maybe..but today im gonna watch daddy destroy penn...so if that happens, penn is finished being a player at the top..i see your point tho...from the fans point of view..maybe its watchable..id like to see gsp vs anderson silva..a dream fight at some catch weight perhaps....wishful thinking on my part??
Posted By: garthmacin (Registered) on January 19, 2008 at 10:28 AM
ok ..so maybe bj .will fight sherk now..after he said he wouldnt...i was hoping he would move to 205..so gsp would kick his ass again..joe daddy was totally dominated ( i was wrong) ...the cut wasnt even a factor ..he couldt beat penn on the ground or the stand up..im picking sherk over penn though..
Posted By: garthmacin (Registered) on January 19, 2008 at 06:19 PM
Looks like the Stevenson bandwagon in this comment thread was wrong.
Seriously, how did you think he had a chance?
Posted By: Leland Roling (Registered) on January 21, 2008 at 11:32 AM
expected more from daddy..this was his worse performance ever..the big cut and the loss of blood .didnt help..but he was dominated ..i was wrong ...my bad!!
Posted By: Guest#6804 (Guest) on January 21, 2008 at 03:50 PM
