411 MMA Fact or Fiction 01.31.08: UFC 81 Preview

Posted by Michael Huckaby on 01.31.2008

Will Brock Lesnar score a win in his UFC debut? Will he be taken seriously if he does? Will style problems cause Rodrigo Nogueira to struggle against Tim Sylvia? Will the UFC's PPV price increase affect sales? All of this and more with superstar MMA bloggers Luke Thomas and Fightlinker.

Welcome back to another edition of 411 MMA Fact or Fiction. We're doing something a little out of the ordinary this week as we've gotten the two most entertaining bloggers in the world of MMA to join us and discuss Saturday's UFC 81 card. In one corner from the fantastic bloodyelbow.com we have Luke Thomas, on the other side we have the guy everyone finds funny until he talks about you, Ryan from Fightlinker. Feel free to go there and ask him about his bottom.

And we're off:

1. Due to style problems making it difficult for him to win a decision, Minotauro Nogueira will have to submit Tim Sylvia to win.

Luke: FACT. And the problem is I don't give him a very good chance of being able to pull that feat off either. Certainly Nogueira has tremendous submission acumen. In fact, of all heavyweight professional MMA fighters, Nogueira is by far the best at effectively applying submissions to win. The problem is that Sylvia is stylistically a brick wall. Nogueira has good boxing, but will likely have difficulty getting inside on Sylvia - a fighter with decent boxing as well. Moreover, Nogueira's takedowns are serviceable, but not overly effective. Combine that fact with Sylvia's enormous body frame and the idea of Nogueira applying double underhooks to hit a lateral drop seems like pure fantasy. If you don't believe Sylvia is hard to take down, ask Ricco Rodriguez, Assuerio Silva or Jeff Monson. And Sylvia is adept enough on the ground to keep the "jab in the face" gameplan in play most of the time. The one key element Nogueira has in his favor is that this is a five round fight. Nogueira is extremely tough and five rounds offers a lot of time for Nogueira to find a way to win. But that's long shot thinking and not enough for Nogueira to take the interim belt. People may hate Tim Sylvia (I am not one of them), but if Nogueira can't beat him then that's saying quite a bit.

Ryan: FACT. There's no way in hell Tim Sylvia is going to push the pace to the point where this will ever go to the ground, and Big Nog just isn't used to fighters not ... well, fighting! It's a whole new ball of wax in the UFC for which the old veteran simply isn't prepared. I'm sure Big Nog is down in South America preparing for this fight the same way he normally does for every fight. Perhaps he's got a few bigger opponents to simulate Tim's size but I doubt he's prepared for Tim's style. I don't know why the hell people are eager for this matchup ... it's got snoozefest written all over it, and I don't see how Nog will be able to force a change from that.

Score: 1 for 1.

2. With a loss to Nate Marquardt making two in a row, Jeremy Horn's future will be more in training than top level fighting.

Luke: FACT. Well, I'd amend this slightly. Jeremy Horn will likely keep fighting, but will do so outside of the UFC or even second tier organizations. Horn has all the talent in the world and was well-rounded before being well-rounded was cool. His no gi jiu-jitsu is also very, very respectable. The problem is that either due to burn out or personal issues, he has been unable of late to keep pace with the evolutionary current of modern MMA. I've also heard from sources inside the industry that Horn exercises terrible dietary habits. I'm sorry, but modern MMA is unforgiving. You cannot expect to win unless you are taking every measure and precaution available. Combine that possibility with the fact that since September 2006, Horn was both knocked out and submitted by fighters not known for their knockout power or submission ability, respectively. Something is clearly amiss and if Marquardt wins on Saturday, the chance of whatever ails Horn being fixed becomes very slim.

Ryan: FICTION. You can't blame a guy for the shit that happens when he doesn't give a shit, and I think it's pretty clear that the past few years Gumby has simply lost his will to give it his all. But he'd be a retard not to realize this shot in the UFC is his last big hurrah. I anticipate the best Jeremy Horn anyone has seen in a few years. Nate Marquardt is overrated and Horn matches up well with the wrestler. Expect to see Gumby submit Nate off his back.

Score: 1 for 2. And I will continue overrating Marquardt to my heart's content.

3. The UFC PPV price increase starting at this event will have no effect on buys in the immediate future.

Luke: FICTION. Again, I'd amend this slightly. I don't think the jump up in 5 dollars will necessarily turn away potential customers. However, the jump in price combined with the UFC's attempt to pass off UFC 78-esque level of events will hurt their bottom line. Dana White rightly points out that the UFC did better PPV numbers in 2007 than they did in 2006. That's all good and well, but if you breakdown the numbers event by event in 2007, the numbers are less than impressive. Raising prices, putting on numerous events and doing so without sufficient star power or meaningful matchmaking is a combustible mix. Moreover, while the UFC may dismiss their competitors, they fact is they do exist and they do provide alternatives for customers. That competition in and of itself won't make a huge dent, but if UFC events fail to provide bang for buck - particularly in an economy that's headed toward a recession - competition is going to get a second and third look from choosy customers. And just wait: I don't think Mark Cuban is bluffing when he says he's got big plans. The UFC is the only game in town for now. You can pass on costs to the customer if they have the ability and willingness to absorb it. I'm not so sure both elements exist.

Ryan: FICTION. I'm not really a mark off subliminal pricing policies, but there's just something disturbing about seeing PPVs go into the mid-40 dollar range rather than the visually acceptable 39.95 it was before. It's just too close to 50 bucks now, and people aren't just going to drop that kind of money on a whim. The UFC is quickly pricing itself out of the range of many people who would otherwise not miss a show. Making hardcore fans pick and choose is terrible because it hurts the UFC's ability to develop new talent. Honestly, the UFC should be DROPPING prices, not raising them. Any step from more accessible to less accessible is a step in the wrong direction.

Score: 2 for 3. And we have the first ever talk of economic recession in a FoF article.

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4. Brock Lesnar will be able to pound out Frank Mir prior to getting caught in a submission.

Ryan: FACT. Frank Mir fell before the firepower of Brandon Vera, a guy who's really just a big 205lb division guy. One thing everyone agrees on is that Brock is retard strong and everything he does feels more like getting hit by a train than by a man. Mir might think he's got a chance, but lets see him try that jiu jitsu shit after Brock Lesnar hits him harder than the pavement during Mir's motorcycle accident.

Luke: FACT. Notice what the statement says: "will be able to" not "is definitely going to". I don't know that Lesnar will unleash tremendous ground and pound on Mir, but that certainly seems likely even if Mir is able to finish Lesnar from the bottom. In other words, I'm not predicting an outright victory for Lesnar, but if he is going to launch any offense, it's going to be strikes from the top position while the two are on the ground. The fact is if Marcio Cruz can ground and pound Mir to a stoppage, Lesnar should be able to as well. Admittedly, Cruz's half guard game is infinitely better than Lesnar's, but Lesnar's wrestling is infinitely better than Cruz's. More importantly, Lesnar doesn't have a lot of offensive options at this stage and Mir is comfortable working off of his back. The one thing I can say for sure is that win or lose, I do expect Mir to sustain heavy damage in this fight. Mir got off easy with arm bar finish of Tim Sylvia. I don't think lightning will strike twice.

Score: 3 for 4.

5. Even with a win, Lesnar won't fully be backed until he shows he can take a punch that Frank Mir probably can't give him.

Ryan: FACT. Mir is a legitimate first opponent for Lesnar, but it'll take Brock twice as long to prove he's legit because he comes in with all that pro wrestling baggage. Look at Bob Sapp: dude's beaten some serious names and almost pounded out Big Nog, yet no one takes him seriously in the least. Expect Lesnar to get the same treatment ... even if he wins people will just explain it away on his size and strength rather than any kind of skill or technique.

Luke: FACT. If I've said it once, I've said it a thousand times: until a fighter is tested by a range of different opponents in a range of different circumstances, we do not have a reliable assessment of that fighter's ability. To some extent this maxim applies to every fighter since each fight is different and fighters evolve over time. However, this is especially true when fighters are rookies and Lesnar is absolutely a rookie. If you read anything or hear anyone proclaiming Lesnar to be the next champion of the UFC, they may well be right, but it's not because they are basing their argument in anything substantive. Until Lesnar's gas tank, submission ability, submission defense, takedown defense, guard, chin, cage work, ring work, stand-up, and other talents have been tested in battle against a range of quality opponents, we are working solely off conjecture alone. Period.

Score: 4 for 5.

6. Ricardo Almeida can return to fighting at a high enough level to be in the Middleweight Title mix.

Ryan: FICTION. Guys that fuck off never had the heart to win in the first place. Almeida is the UFC's latest recruit to try and legitimize their ailing middleweight division. At this point they're throwing so much shit at the wall, who's to say they aren't just grasping at straws. If Almeida is just getting back in to raise awareness for his school, he won't have the heart to make it to the top. If he is taking it seriously, he's going to find out that there's a lot of guys in the UFC middleweight division with enough firepower to knock him the fuck out before he can posture his hips for a submission.

Luke: FACT. There are two major reasons for this. First, the notoriously thin UFC middleweight division offers the opportunity for almost anyone who can string together three wins a chance at Anderson Silva's belt. Second, Ricardo Almeida is a world-class grappler. That is such an incredible foundation to build from that people tend to lose sight of how significant that is. More importantly, though, I'd suggest folks who are unfamiliar with Almeida should go back and watch some of his fights. Almeida's stand-up isn't that great, but he is extremely tough and very aggressive. I remember watching Almeida - a jiu-jitsu guy - throw devastating leg kicks before leg kicks became popular. He's taken a lot of time off and there are a lot of questions about the present state of his MMA game. But his pedigree is impeccable and with an anemic middleweight division, the door is wide open for Almeida to make his presence felt very quickly.

Score: 4 for 6. I think we could cure the MW title mess by just making Silva/Franklin a yearly October tradition where families gather around and cover their children's eyes.

Again, a big thank you to Fightlinker and Bloodyelbow, go check out their sites for MMA news and up front opinion.

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Next week Dustin James and Larry Csonka will be back to discuss the aftermath of UFC 81, any new news, and perhaps some WEC.