The MMA News Report 02.13.08
Posted by Morgan Marx on 02.13.2008
Updates on Stephan Bonnar and Chris Leben, news on which former Pride star WVR has signed now, and a look at my personal UFC Heavyweight Power Rankings. All this, plus an in-depth rundown of the WEC: Condit v. Prater card scheduled for Wednesday!
INTRODUCTION
We're full on insight and info this week, so no time for witty introductions.
MAILBAG/RANT TIME
Here's a debut of a new feature that may or may not run semi-regularly. Or, more precisely, whenever I need space filler. With word that the UFC is considering implementing official fighter rankings (you know, to correct all of us unaffiliated Internet idiots), I thought I might add my own take on where fighters stand in the UFC. This is more of a "Power Ranking" than a straight forward "who's the number one contender" type list. Also, these are solely my own thoughts, so you'll notice I favor/penalize certain fighters due to my own biases. Some comments will follow.
UFC Heavyweight Power Rankings
1) Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (Interim Champion)
2) Tim Sylvia
3) Andrei Arlovski
4) Fabricio Werdum (#1 Contender)
5) Brandon Vera
6) Frank Mir
7) Chiek Kongo
8) Gabriel Gonzaga
9) Jake O'Brien
10) Brock Lesnar
Notes: Obviously, Randy Couture's inclusion is dependent on his return to the company. If Couture should return, I'd slot him at #4. I think Couture would have real trouble with the top 3 fighters above. Sylvia showed he is a much different fighter at 100%…Mirko Filipovic is out of the top ten and now may be gone from the UFC entirely…I really like both Brandon Vera and Frank Mir, much more than most top 10 rankings. Vera only has one loss on his record, and there's no shame in losing to Sylvia, a perennial title challenger. For some reason, people discount the motorcycle accident when discussing Mir. At top form, Mir can submit any heavyweight in the world. He's not quite part of the UFC's top 5, but a win in his next fight against someone like Kongo would shift him upwards…Kongo still has to prove he can hang with a submission fighter...both O'Brien and Lesnar can trouble anyone in the UFC with their wrestling.
The Reader's Question: Do you think the UFC should adopt official rankings? Or will it cause issues when someone like Werdum earns a title shot over Arlovski?
NEWS LEG KICKS
Bonnar Off of April Fight Night Card, Boetsch In
Popular light heavyweight fighter Stephan Bonnar has been forced to pull out of April fight against Matt Hamill due to a torn ligament in his left knee. Bonnar, best known as the 205 lbs. runner-up in the inaugural TUF series, will be out for 6 months for surgery and rehab.
Taking Bonnar's place will be UFC newcomer Tim Boetsch, fresh off a crowd-thrilling victory over David Heath. Hamill will present a different sort of challenge for Boetsch, but don't be surprised if "The Barbarian" is able to spring another impressive upset. Boetsch is known for having pushed Vladimir Matyushenko, a world class wrestler, to a decision. Perhaps Hamill is in for an even bigger challenge against Boetsch.
Bonnar is coming off two consecutive victories, including an impressive TKO victory over Eric Schafer. Hopefully, he will be able to regain his momentum once fully recovered sometime this fall.
Fellow TUF 1 fighter Chris Leben confirmed a two year contract renewal with the UFC in an interview for UFC.com. Prior to a stirring victory over Terry Martin it was thought that Leben might be heading to a smaller organization such as EliteXC, where his name value might overshadow losses to Anderson Silva, Jason MacDonald, and Kalib Starnes. Instead, Leben will look to improve on his UFC record and make a legitimate challenge in a weight class (still) starving for talent.
I swear, I had better not be repeating that middleweight line in 2009. I won't say I'm a Chris Leben fan, but I'm impressed that he seems to be making the effort to improve his, well, life. Changes in his training routine and location (he moved to Hawaii) have led to a seemingly more mature Leben. It can be difficult to rate whether a fighter has grown up based on a post-fight interview, but Leben was more controlled following the Martin fight then we were accustomed to seeing.
Leben is due to fight Alessio Sakara at UFC 82, a fight that seems perfect for the knockout artist. Sakara won't present the ground game of MacDonald or the technical ability of Silva, meaning Leben will have a chance to show off his improved overall game. If the Leben that dominated the first two rounds against Martin shows up March 1st, Sakara's middleweight debut might not go according to plan.
While not much is known about World Victory Road, the fledgling promotion made more news this week by snapping up another Pride veteran. Japanese wrestling star Kazuyuki Fujita is the latest big name to be signed by WVR, following Josh Barnett, Takanori Gomi, and Kazuo Misaki. Fujita will make his debut along with WVR at the company's March 5th show titled "Sengoku."
In related news, Phil Baroni will not be fighting for WVR after confirming he has signed with EliteXC. Baroni had been tabbed to fight Sanae Kikuta in Japan, but Baroni instead will challenge for the ICON middleweight title that was recently vacated due to injury by Robbie Lawler. ICON is connected to EliteXC and Baroni may end up fighting for the Showtime based organization.
It remains to be seen whether WVR will become a true Pride replacement, or whether the company is smoke and mirrors. The assembled talent is legitimate (even if Barnett is facing Hidehiko Yoshida instead of a top 10 contender like Fedor). I don't claim to be an expert on the Japanese MMA scene, but right now, both WVR and M-1 seem great in theory, unproven in concept.
I love that the WEC is living up to its commitment to the lighter weights. One could say that the WEC is forced to promote fighters at 155 and lower because of the dearth of talent available to the organization at the heavier weights. That may be the case, but the UFC's sister promotion has still done a great job making Urijah Faber into the face of the organization, introducing the bantam and feather weight classes to a host of US MMA fans, and emphasizing in-ring action over physical stature. Now if they could just keep the little guys away from Frank Mir in the post fight interviews they'd be all set. Here's a look at 5 of the top fights scheduled for this Wednesday's live card on Versus. I'm not quite sure which fights will make the live broadcast, so I'm just picking the 5 most interesting.
Josh Grispi v. Mark Hominick: New England area fighters have been on a roll lately, from Marcus Davis and Jorge Rivera winning in the UK, to Dan Lauzon making a run at joining his brother in the UFC. Grispi, a Boston native, is being hyped as the next young talent to emerge from the Northeast. At just 19, Grispi has shown well-rounded skills and a strong desire to finish fights as quickly as possible. He's got two sub-20 second victories, and none of his fights have reached the end of the first round.
I'd love to jump aboard the hype surrounding a fellow Bostonian, but I think Hominick is going to be a big step up in ability. Hominick is a decorated striker that has the submission skills to survive 15 minutes with BJJ experts like Jorge Gurgel (a fight Hominick won via decision). Granted, Hominick was submitted pretty quickly by Rani Yahya. It seems that Hominick's mediocre record is a result of his training habits and desire to fight. If he's dedicated to the WEC and the 145-weight class, he has the ability to be a difference maker.
If Hominick survives the early onslaught and doesn't make a mistake that leads to a quick Grispi submission, I think Hominick has the chance to grind out a victory in the later rounds. Hopefully, Hominick has done a little research on Grispi. Having watched just a few highlight videos, it's apparent that Grispi loves to open fights by throwing a right head kick. See how useful YouTube can be for fighters? Prediction: Hominick by Submission.
Hiroyuki Takaya v. Leonard Garcia: This is a great test for both fighters. Leonard Garcia made his name by taking a brutal beating at the hands, feet, and knees of Roger Huerta. After a submission victory over Allen Berubie, Garcia went on to lose a decision to Cole Miller. If anything, Garcia has proven he's a durable fighter that can avoid fight-ending mistakes. Against Takaya, he may have to absorb a big punch while looking for a submission.
Takaya has been in against some of the top fighters in the world including Gesias Calvancante and Gilbert Melendez. He lost to both, but Takaya has the one-punch power to KO a lot of fighters at 145. Takaya seems to throw wide, wild punches in a head hunting fashion. That might not be enough against Garcia, but it certainly ups the chances of a flash finish.
If Garcia can avoid engaging in another Huerta-esque slugfest, it should be his fight to lose. Garcia will be a large 145-er so he should have an easier time of dictating where the fight takes place against Takaya. Neither fighter is ready for Faber just yet, but the winner could potentially be a title challenger down the road. Prediction: Garcia by Submission.
WEC Bantamweight Title Fight: Chase Beebe (c) v. Miguel Torres: Miguel Torres is one of those fighters whose Sherdog record stops you dead in your surfing. 20-1 is impressive regardless of the level of competition. After a WEC debut victory against Jeff Bedard, Torres has the opportunity to win a title before many MMA fans know who he is. At 5'9", Torres is long and rangy for a bantamweight and he knows how to use his limbs to lock up various chokes.
If I had to nit-pick (and that's why I'm here I suppose), the only real impressive names on Torres' hit list are Bedard, Joe Pearson, and maybe Richard Nancoo. That's not Torres' fault; there really hasn't been an organization or weight class for Torres to call home. I like Torres' chances against Chase Beebe, but anyone thinking Torres will easily overcome the defending champion is putting too much faith in Torres' won-loss record.
Beebe is establishing himself as the WEC's answer to Sean Sherk. He's a dominating wrestler who hasn't quite shown the ability to finish fights that he's controlling. At least that's the story in the WEC. Otherwise, Beebe has racked up 9 submission victories. Beebe also demonstrated how effectively he could neutralize an opponent's submission game in his victory over Rani Yahya, a BJJ blackbelt. If Beebe can deal with Torres' height advantage, he should be able to make this an evenly matched fight. Both fighters probably have good cardio, but with Beebe coming off consecutive 25-minute fights, I like his gas tank a bit better. Prediction: Chase Beebe by Unanimous Decision.
WEC Lightweight Title Fight: Razor Rob McCullough (c)v. Jamie Varner: I'm obligated to refer to McCullough as Razor Rob since everyone refers to McCullough as Razor Rob. Anyway, there's a tendency to discount certain champions of smaller organizations due to the lack of credible challengers available to face off against. Doug Marshall is in the exact same boat, and many commentators picked Ariel Gandulla to steal Marshall's WEC light heavyweight belt. I wasn't surprised when Marshall overcame the newcomer. Just because someone hasn't beat an X amount of top 10 fighters doesn't mean he can't (note my hedging of bets in the Grispi fight earlier).
McCullough is similarly discounted. Many are pointing to Varner's decision loss to Hermes Franca and wrestling background as reasons why Varner is tailor made to defeat McCullough. But Richard Crunkilton had similar credentials coming into McCullough's last title defense, and that fight ended with Crunkilton getting KTFOd as the kids are saying.
I think McCullough has better takedown defense than many are crediting him with. I'm also worried that Varner's boxing background might inflate his sense of being able to stand and trade with McCullough. While Varner has said the right things about sticking to the gameplan in interviews, if his first shot goes poorly will he look to strike? If he chooses to exchange strikes, this could be another quick night for Razor Rob. And maybe he'll earn some deserved respect as well. Prediction: McCullough by KO.
WEC Welterweight Title Fight: Carlos Condit (c) v. Carlo Prater: The fighter Condit reminds me most of is Anderson Silva. Obviously, there's a world of difference between Silva, a consensus pound-for-pound top 3 fighter, and Condit. But both fighters are tall and a bit lanky. Both have physiques that belie their strength. Both mix strikes (punches, knees, kicks) effectively and in unique fashion. And both have the submission skills to end a fight should they be put on their backs.
I like Condit in this fight. You can talk yourself into Carlo Prater, a talented if unassuming fighter, but it takes effort. Sure, Prater holds a victory over Condit from 2004, but Condit has evolved as a fighter since his first loss. You can suggest that Condit's victories over Brock Larson and John Alessio come with question marks (Larson underestimated Condit's submission skills and fell into an awful position; Alessio isn't that good). But in the end, Condit is on a 6-fight win streak that shouldn't end here.
Neither Condit nor Silva has a flawless record like Fedor. Both have 4 losses, some more legitimate than others, that might give opponents hope. But both have gone on to dominate weight classes in new organizations. Jake Shields may have slightly outworked Condit in 2006. If the two were to meet again, I wouldn't be surprised if Condit came out on the other end of a decision. Condit will be fighting in front of a hometown crowd and seems to feed of emotion. Prater might be looking to make a name for himself in a larger organization, but this isn't the fight. Prediction: Condit by TKO.
CONCLUSION
That's it for another edition of the mid-week news. I hope you get a chance to catch tonight's WEC show. They are usually very entertaining and I can't wait to see if Frank Mir, an excellent commentator, is still bruised and battered from his fight with Lesnar.
oh shit Boetch vs Hamill! damn i was pumped thinking of hime bullying bonnar around, but damn boetch! i like both dudes so im ready to see a fuckin war between these guys.
Posted By: bigmike (Guest) on February 13, 2008 at 12:19 AM
UFC needs to really stay on the ball if they are going to start keeping some kind of public ranking system... Bottom line, match making will be harder with that since they can't just throw any two guys together regardless of the rankings. Had there been such a system (and had UFC honored it) we might have never seen either Couture-Sylvia or Lesnar-Mir - both of them cases of a 'debuting' fighter facing an established one. Okay, Couture wasn't exactly debuting, but he was still on the first fight of his contract - and facing the HW Champ.
Bottom line, either the rankings will be a total joke OR they'll make the matchmaker's job BOTH easier and harder.
Posted By: woody (Guest) on February 13, 2008 at 03:14 AM
I think trying to make rankings is a futile attempt, and will probably only sour fighters and fans if the UFC even tries it. I think they would be better off having a top 5 for each weight class, but not placing the fighters in a particular order. That way, it would always be logical who the title contenders would be. On top of that, there would be as much dick-wagging when one fighter is ranked #2 when everyone else thinks he should be #1.
Posted By: Kuch (Guest) on February 13, 2008 at 11:42 PM
McCullough looked like crap and got totally dominated. Good fight thou.
Posted By: SYC (Guest) on February 14, 2008 at 01:55 PM
Did you watch the fight between Martin and Leben? Because if you did, I don't know how you could say that Leben dominated the first two rounds. Martin used his wrestling to control him and was well on his way to winning a decision if he hadn't gotten cocky and dropped his hands.
Posted By: guest (Guest) on February 14, 2008 at 11:26 PM
