411 MMA Fact or Fiction 02.29.08: UFC 82 Preview

Posted by Michael Huckaby on 02.29.2008

Will Anderson Silva reign supreme? Will Dan Henderson stay at 185lbs, win or lose? Is Andrei Arlovski off to EliteXC? Is Cheick Kongo going to get the first crack at Minotauro Nogueira? All of this and more in the latest edition of 411 MMA Fact or Fiction!

Welcome back to a special UFC 82 edition of 411 MMA Fact or Fiction. Joining me this week is Cardio Freak news report author Mr. Jeremy Lambert. In the other corner is a fellow news report writer, Punch Drunk Hangover's Bren Oliver. May the best man not win.

1. Anderson Silva will clinch the #1 middleweight and pound-for-pound rankings by beating Dan Henderson.

Lambert: FACT. In my mind, he's already at the top of both lists. With a win over a guy who many consider Top5 P4P and the #2 Middleweight, it would be pretty tough to deny Silva the top spot. I think the Middleweight spot will be obvious with a win because if you don't consider him #1 already, he's probably a #2 behind Henderson. Obviously if Silva wins, he would jump Henderson. The only person holding him back in the P4P rankings would be Fedor but 3 straight victories over Top 10 talent beats out 3 straight victories over a superheavyweight, a middleweight, and a giantheight in my mind.

Oliver: FICTION. I find this statement to be fictional for two very different reasons. First, I already consider Anderson Silva to be the best Middleweight and top pound-for-pound fighter in the world. I give "The Spider" an edge over Fedor because he has shown the ability to knock his opponents out in devestating fashion when standing as well as tap them out on the ground if the fight goes that way. That being said, I feel he's already clinched the #1 rankings in those two categories, so beating Dan Henderson will only go on to cement his standing. Second, the statement presumes Anderson Silva will be beating Dan Henderson in their bout and I'm not so sure that's going to happen. If anything, UFC 82 may fasten Fedor Emelianenko's place at the peak of pound-for-pound rankings and Hendo's atop the Middleweight division. Also, this doesn't necessarily have anything to do with the topic, but I have a brief Dan Henderson anecdote I'd like to share to set the tone for my genuine respect of the man. Henderson was at "HDNet Fights: Reckless Abandon", cornering Jason "Mayhem" Miller, which happened to be an event I was able to attend flying the 411Mania flag. After the event, my friend and I retired to the hotel lobby bar, and it so happened we were at the same joint as the fighters. Hendo arrived at the bar about an hour after showtime, yucked it up with Kenny Rice and Ron Kruck for about twenty minutes, and then headed out with "Mayhem" Miller and a few other folks. The next morning when I was checking out of the hotel, who did I happen to see in the lobby talking to Matt Lindland? Mr. Dan Henderson. That may sound like a pointless story, but the true value of it comes in the fact the double-divisional PRIDE Champion was wearing the same shirt he was wearing the night before at the hotel bar. Ladies and gents, as far as I'm concerned, any individual who can party through the night while maintaining the discipline to be one of the top three fighters in the world in two weight classes is a bad mamma-jamma and someone you should never count out.

Score: 0 for 1. And I tried rephrasing that statement multiple times as to avoid nitpicks on the verbage and I failed miserably yet again.

2. Dan Henderson will stay in the middleweight division even with a loss on Saturday.

Lambert: FICTION. He was reluctant to move to middleweight in the first place so if he loses to Silva, I can't see him staying. I think the only reason he moved down is because of the opportunity to unify the belts with Silva but after that he's got no real reason to stay down there if Silva wins. I think he wants to fight 205 where there's a lot of money to be made against the likes of Liddell, Shogun, Griffin, Silva, ect... I also think that he feels more comfortable at 205, where he's still a good size and doesn't have to cut the extra weight.

Oliver: FICTION. It seems pretty obvious Henderson will compete at middleweight if he wins the championship, but it seems equally transparent that he'll move back up to light-heavyweight if he ends up dropping a decision (or getting dropped). He has previously expressed his disinterest in having to cut weight to compete and the only reason he's currently fighting at 185 pounds is because Dana White was desperate for a legitimate middleweight contender to Anderson Silva and essentially begged Hendo to fill the slot. Great call by my FoF comrade! I am 100% supportive of the former Olympian stepping into the cage against Chuck Liddell, "Shogun" Rua, and every other name listed outside of "Silva" - unless of course we're talking about one of Thiago, and not Wanderlei, variety. Throw Keith Jardine and Rashad Evans on there while you're at it. On a side note, I'm fascinated by the toothless one's aversion to dropping pounds given his amateur background and wrestlers' intimate relationship with cutting weight.

Score: 1 for 2.

3. EliteXC is the most likely organization to land Andrei Arlovski after the final fight of his UFC contract on Saturday.

Lambert: FICTION. I'm calling it now, Arlovski will defeat Jake O'Brien on Saturday and then re-sign with UFC. I know Dana likes to play hardball with his fighters but I think he'll come to his senses in this situation, realize that Arlovski has been a key to the heavyweight division for some time now, and the two sides will come to an agreement.

Oliver: FACT. I originally had this as "Fiction", but given this week's news concerning EliteXC's partnership with CBS, I'm changing my mind because I think it's very likely he could be headed to the land of Gary Shaw. They'll definitely have some extra cash to throw at him and signing Arlovski would add a needed dimension to their heavyweight division. In addition, I think HDNet Fights could swoop in and scoop him up given Arlovski's presence at their last promotional event. One can never underestimate the will, and bank account, of Mark Cuban. I also imagine Japanese fans would love to see "The Pitbull" in action and the emergence of World Victory Road and DREAM make that possible. I don't doubt at all that Andrei can beat Jake O'Brien, but I'm very skeptical in terms of Dana White offering Arlovski the kind of money he can make elsewhere. When guys like Tank Abbott can draw a $126,000 check for a pathetic performance, why wouldn't Arlovski explore his options?

Score: 1 for 3, and excellent last point.

----SWITCH IT UP----

4. Cheick Kongo will be the first challenger to Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira's HW title.

Oliver: FICTION. I am not convinced Kongo will beat Heath Herring on Saturday night, nor am I convinced even doing so would catapult him into the top contender's spot. To touch on the former, while Herring may be 1-2 in the UFC, he is a well-rounded, experienced fighter who isn't going to be pushed around in the cage the same way Cro Cop was. He has the ability to submit Kongo from his back and has the chin, and skill, to stand with the large Frenchman. Moving on to my second point, Herring is 1-2 in the UFC and hasn't strung together two wins since early 2004. Unless Cheick can finish Herring in highlight-reel fashion, I think the bulk of UFC fans won't view a victory over him as being much of a significant win. I also cannot forget Kongo's pathetic loss to Carmelo Marrero or that he hasn't finished any of his last three opponents. The only thing playing to Kongo's favor is the watered-down state of the UFC's Heavyweight division. Still, I think that if Werdum beats Brandon Vera then he's definitely next in line to face off against Nogueira, especially in light of owning a loss to "Minotauro" from their time in PRIDE. In fact, his resume reads quite a bit better than Kongo's bunch of no-names not named Mirko Filipovic. He's beaten Gabriel Gonzaga twice, Alistair Overeem, Aleks Emelianenko, and taken the aforementioned Nogueira (and Sergei Kharitonov) to decision.

Lambert: FICTION. Only because I think Herring will beat him on Saturday. If Kongo does indeed win on Saturday, I do suspect he'll be the first to fight Big Nog, especially now that Werdum is fighting Vera in a few months. I think the fact that Werdum is fighting Vera instead of getting a "promised" title shot shows that Dana is banking on Kongo winning so he can give him the title shot. But as I said, I like Herring to beat Kongo by decision, leaving Nog without a challenger until Vera and Werdum square off in London.

Score: 2 for 4, odd that a fight on Saturday will determine whether Nogueira has 3 months off or has to wait 9 through no control of his own.

5. Evan Tanner will be able to grind out a decision win over Yushin Okami.

Oliver: FICTION. Hmmm, let's see...a guy who is 1-2 in his last three fights, all of which were in the UFC, as well as who hasn't competed in nearly two full years, or his opponent who happens to be 5-1 in the Octagon who was very close to submitting Rich Franklin in an eventual decision loss. Speaking of Franklin, he also ripped Contestant #1, a.k.a. Evan Tanner, to shreds on two separate occasions and turned his face into taco meat along the way. Smarkiness aside, I think Yushin Okami is nearly a lock to win, and while does Tanner play the role of an underdog to perfection, I don't see him emerging a winner outside of the proverbial "puncher's chance".

Lambert: FICTION. In his prime, I think Tanner matched up well with Okami. After a long absence and personal problems, I think Tanner is screwed against Okami. Plus how is he going to be able to grind out a decision over the king of grinding out decisions? It will be nice to see Tanner back in the Octagon but I only like his chances if he comes out with the caveman look and blitzed out of his mind.

Score: 3 for 5.

6. Diego Sanchez and Josh Koscheck will both bounce back with wins on Saturday.

Oliver: FACT. I'm more confident in Diego walking through Bielkheden than I am Koscheck through Hazelett, but I do believe both fighters will find themselves back on the right side of the W/L column before the night is through. Sanchez will be ready for blood come Saturday night. His performances in the Octagon speak for themselves. By the way, has Karo's tooth made its way onto Ebay yet? Moving forward, Bielkheden is making his debut and the most notable win on his mediocre 12-5 record came in the form of Charles McCarthy more than four years ago. He's hardly a match for a fighter of Sanchez's skill. Hazelett, however, has won three UFC fights in a row and should have the crowd on his side since he trains with Jorge Gurgel in Cincinatti. If Koscheck underestimates him, the former collegiate All-American wrestler could find himself getting outworked and on the losing end of a decision victory.

Lambert: FACT. As Bren said, I like Diego's chances a lot better than Koscheck's but I think they'll both win. Diego sets a crazy pace that I don't think Bielkheden will be able to handle and you know Diego will be super motivated after two straight losses. While I put Koscheck's odds a little lower than Diego's, I still think he'll blanket his way to decision using good submission defense and great wrestling.

Score: 4 for 6. And Bielkheden has been an internet laughing stock the last couple weeks since he made the always asinine statement that he didn't watch any Diego tape. Do they think watching tape is an insult that shows you're not confident? It's ridiculous.

--------

Join us next week when perhaps our two biggest FoF all-stars, Lotfi Sariahmed and Randy Harrison, discuss the aftermath of UFC 82 and any breaking news.