MMA Analytics 03.10.08: The Fedor Sweepstakes Continue...

Posted by Leland Roling on 03.10.2008

The Fedor Emelianenko saga has reached a new level this week. Rumors have surfaced regarding Fedor's possible re-entry back into the free agent market. What's the current situation, what are the possibilities for other promotions, and what can fans expect? We take an in-depth look in this edition of MMA Analytics.

This week provided the mixed martial arts community with a surprise. After rampant speculation surfaced regarding Fedor's potential free agency during an interview with M-1 Global CEO Monte Cox, ESPN Magazine added fuel to the fire in an article focusing on a future matchup between Randy Couture vs. Fedor Emelianenko. In the article, Apy Echteld, a member of Fedor's management team, was quoted as claiming that Fedor could be a free agent within the week. The explosion of fanaticism over the news has begun.

Sherdog.com journalist Josh Gross did some leg work this week in confirming some of the rumors that have surfaced. Gross also added more gas to the flames. According to Gross, an unnamed source stated that Fedor Emelianenko would be expected to return his $1.5 million signing bonus to M-1 Global in return for a release from his contract.

With all the speculation and rumors, what can we expect? Where will the "Last Emperor" end up in the continued sweepstakes to obtain his skills in the ring or cage? Here's a few thoughts:

1. Fedor signs with the UFC; Couture returns to the cage to fight Fedor

Many fans are throwing this possibility in the toilet for a number of reasons. Couture has reportedly signed a contract with HDNet Fights, but the contract doesn't kick in until Couture's current promotional contract with the UFC is either voided, expired, or fulfilled. If Fedor came to the UFC, Couture could potentially accept a fight contract to take on the Russian Sambo champion and fulfill his contract with the promotion or at least have his current contract restructured to take on Fedor.

There are only a few key kinks in the puzzle. Fedor and his management team have been historically horrible to deal with in terms of making a deal happen. Many blame Dana White and Zuffa for their very restrictive contracts, and the current court battle over Couture could potentially see Zuffa's contracts in danger of being voided due to unreasonable terms. That's a different story altogether, but in the case of Fedor Emelianenko, his main concern usually revolves around non-exclusivity to a promotion. The UFC will undoubtedly never give this to any fighter within their organization. Let the battle begin again between Vadim Finkelstein and company against the UFC giant.

In a perfect world, Fedor would sign a contract with the UFC, and Randy Couture would return to the cage to take on Emelianenko. A fourth installment of the Nogueira vs. Fedor saga could happen as part of a way to introduce Fedor to the casual fanbase, but Couture vs. Fedor will likely happen quickly.

2. Fedor signs with HDNet Fights; Couture eventually leaves the UFC to fulfill HDNet contract

While the HDNet option is deemed as the most viable by many fans due to the money that Mark Cuban can throw toward Fedor Emelianenko, Mark Cuban isn't the type of guy that will just throw money at a guy to simply make the fight happen. HDNet Fights wouldn't be the best stage to produce the fight either as it is still unavailable in many markets. If Cuban could produce this card on a pay-per-view buy however, there is money to be made.

Is this a plausible option? Fedor could be attracted to HDNet Fights for the mere fact that they maintain a non-exclusivity with their fighters. The only stipulation revolves around fighters not being able to fight a certain time period before and after scheduled HDNet matchups. It would allow Fedor to fight in Japan, stay close to home for other matchups, and potentially create bigger battles that HDNet Fights cannot produce such as Josh Barnett vs. Fedor Emelianenko. The upside is that HDNet could work deals to broadcast Fedor's fights for audiences in the States which they've already done in the past.

3. Fedor remains non-exclusive, signs fights with DREAM and World Victory Road

In my opinion, this is one of the most likely options for Fedor. He's drawn to the Japanese mixed martial arts scene and has been sought after for big dollars by Japanese MMA promotions. He would remain a contract only fighter, signing small one fight deals for large purses and potentially setting up any fight he wants. Why would this be a good option for Fedor?

He would remain non-exclusive, keep fighting in Sambo competitions in Russia, get adequate compensation for his fights, and probably maintain his near perfect record. Barnett would likely be the first big test in years, and Couture could be on the horizon as well. HDNet could still swing a Couture vs. Fedor fight under these terms due to his non-exclusivity and the hardcore fans would remain happy with seeing that fight and a potential Barnett battle as well. We all win in that situation. Of course, it relies on Couture leaving his Zuffa contract.

4. Fedor vs. Kimbo on EliteXC, CBS!

Oddly enough, this rumor continues to surface. Josh Gross at Sherdog quoted Jeremy Lappen, EliteXC's head of fighter relations, as stating the promotion would be ""absolutely interested in Fedor if he was a free agent". Can they swing the deal?

While EliteXC would be an intriguing development in the MMA world, their heavyweight division does not offer much of a challenge for Fedor. Antonio Silva doesn't have the ground skills to give Fedor a run for his money, Ricco Rodriguez has been lackluster in many of his recent performances, and Kimbo Slice is still green as a fighter and has yet to show his ground tactics. Most casual fans want to see Kimbo take on the Russian, but in reality, would Kimbo actually last more than a minute with Fedor?

Kimbo's quick hands would likely be neutralized by the quick transitions and submission game that Fedor possesses. Fedor's striking prowess is heavily underrated by fans everywhere, and it may surprise Kimbo as well. But let's not talk about the actual matchup, let's talk about whether or not EliteXC could actually swing the deal.

EliteXC has recently been invested in by CBS and has worked a network television deal, the first in mixed martial arts history. Unless CBS throws some money at Fedor for the potential matchup down the road, we won't be seeing this fight. EliteXC has made a big push by putting Kimbo against guys like Bo Cantrell and Tank Abbott, why risk having Kimbo dismantled at the hands of a superior fighter when EliteXC can make money on easy matchups for Kimbo?

Where will Fedor go?

In my opinion, Fedor's best option will be DREAM or World Victory Road. DREAM and WVR both reside in Japan, a market that has a legendary past in the mixed martial arts scene, and they will both produce good sized purses for Fedor to put in his bank account. WVR can provide a top 10 matchup in Josh Barnett while DREAM has the potential to work with free agent heavyweights in the future.

Fedor is also drawn to providing Japanese fans with entertainment. His bout with Hong Man Choi was exactly that, a matchup to provide big ratings for New Year's Eve. A big purse was likely involved in taking the matchup as well, and I would think Fedor likes to see those paychecks rolling in.

The only problem with moving back into the Japanese market is the conceivable problem with organized crime. It led to the demise of PRIDE when their television deal was pulled due to rumored ties with Yakuza. There are rumblings that the same problems could be happening in this second generation of promotions. I doubt that Fedor and his management would turn down the paydays though.

HDNet is a viable option as well. It will keep Fedor non-exclusive and could provide us with a Couture vs. Fedor matchup outside of the UFC. The UFC's standing in the entire situation is up in the air. The contract situation with Couture, the legal proceedings, and the interpretation of Couture's contract with HDNet Fights could cause problems for the future. I still firmly believe the restrictiveness of Zuffa's contracts will kill a potential deal though. Dana White won't open up the contract for Fedor due to the fallout when other fighters find out that Fedor has special contract clauses favoring him.

It'll be an interesting few weeks for Fedor. Another sweepstakes for Fedor's services are about to surface. May the hungriest promotion win.