The MMA News Report 04.02.08

Posted by Morgan Marx on 04.02.2008

A look at Wednesday night’s Fight Night Live card. Which fighter has the most to lose, will Karo Parisyan ever catch a break, and what can we expect from Houston Alexander (hint: not a gogoplata, no matter how easy the Undertaker makes them look).

INTRODUCTION

With a few deadlines bearing down on me, we're taking a look at tonight's Fight Night Live card and eschewing the news. What news you ask? Well, there's very little out there. Frank Mir will fight Justin McCully for no apparent reason, Matt Hughes is a jokester, and that's about it. So onto tonight's card, with some key issues and terrible picks. Hopefully the event lives up to it's billing, and the Fightlinker crew doesn't complain about numerous commercials or boring fights.


MAILBAG/RANT TIME

Boy, was I slaughtered with my "picks" from last week's WEC show. I don't think I've ever had such a bad run with predictions (cough*1-6*cough). My only correct pick came due to John Alessio's DQ in a fight he may have won if not for a flash knee. Someone remind me of this the next time I crow about prediction an Anderson Silva victory.

A lot of people criticize the Elite XC commenting crew, and rightly so. Between Mauro Ranallo's over-the-top comparisons and Goldberg being Goldberg, they aren't my favorite group. But I have to credit Stephen Quadros for accurately predicting the end to the Frank Shamrock v. Cung Le fight. Midway through the first round Quadros presciently pointed out the damage Shamrock could sustain in trying to check Le's headkicks with his arms. Quadros did in deed look like "The Fight professor" when Shamrock was forced to retire from the fight with a broken arm.

The Reader's Question: Any interest in TUF: Rampage v. Griffin at all?


COMMENTARY

4 Issues for UFC Fight Night Live: Florian v. Lauzon

1) Which fighter has the most to lose? In a night of intriguing match-ups, several fighters face stiff competition in meaningful fights. Karo Parisyan and Kenny Florian are looking to shore up future title shots, while Thiago Alves and Joe Lauzon are looking to move up the rankings by springing the upset. Elsewhere, Nate Diaz, Manny Gamburyan and George Sotriopoulos will try to keep momentum rolling, while Houston Alexander and Clay Guida are hoping to bounce back from defeat.

Parisyan is in a tricky spot. Having been promised a welterweight tile shot in the past, the judoka could once again see his chance slip away with a poor performance against Alves (more on that in a bit). However, I think Frankie Edgar is the fighter with the most to lose. The undefeated wrestler will face Gray Maynard in a lightweight run off that will probably eliminate the loser from title contention for the foreseeable future.

While the betting odds are reasonably close, the average fan has to assume that Edgar is the bigger favorite than Parisyan. Since joining the UFC, Edgar has steam rolled top level talent like Tyson Griffin and Spencer Fisher. Maynard has been equally impressive at times, but Joe Veres and Dennis Siver are a big step down in talent from Edgar's opponents. Edgar is viewed as a top 10 lightweight worldwide, while Maynard is still a work in progress.

A loss for Edgar would seriously damage his reputation in a tough 155 division, and a win wouldn't do too much for his ranking. Maynard is a tough challenge for a fighter looking to move onto bigger and better things. Even if Edgar squeaks out a decision victory he could himself looking up at the likes of Sean Sherk, Joe Stevenson, Roger Huerta, and the winner of Florian v. Lauzon.

2) Can Karo catch a break? From injuries, to bad publicity, to losing ground in the deepest division any organization has to offer, Karo Parisyan hasn't been the luckiest of fighters. With a 9-2 record in the octagon, Parisyan seems a lock to contend for the welterweight title. A lackluster performance against Thiago Alves (even in victory) could once again find Parisyan lost in the shuffle.

Karo has two big obstacles preventing him from a shot at Georges St-Pierre (a rather imposing obstacle in and of himself). The first is Jon Fitch. If there is a fighter on a better roll than Parisyan in the UFC it's the former Purdue wrestler. Having survived a tough battle with Chris Wilson, Fitch has been all but promised a title shot at the winner of GSP v. Serra. Where that leaves Parisyan is anyone's guess.

I'm not completely sold on the idea of Fitch as #1 contender. Remember that Fabricio Werdum "earned" a heavyweight title shot and was viewed as the #1 contender to Minotauro Noguiera's new crown. However, word has it that Werdum will instead face Brandon Vera to determine Big Nog's next foe. In the UFC, nothing id officially official unless it is announced on the companies website.

Parisyan could in fact supplant Fitch as the #1 contender with a strong showing against Alves. Unfortunately, Parisyan's propensity for decision victories remains the second stumbling block. While it may not be a fair characterization, Parisyan is earning a rep as a fighter that doesn't finish fights. Sometimes, Parisyan thoroughly outclasses opponents without securing the kill (like with Josh Burkman). Against Ryo Chonan, a visibly distracted Parisyan let outside factors take him out of his game, resulting in a victory Parisyan felt the need to apologize for. Unless the Parisyan of old returns tonight, can you really make a case that he's more deserving of a shot than Fitch?

A lot of commentators have crucified Parisyan for "ducking" a fight with Fitch. Ironically, a lot of those same critics also vilified Chuck Liddell for taking the Keith Jardine fight and jeopardizing the Wanderlei Silva megafight. It seems that fighters can't win in certain cases. I see no problem in Parisyan wanting to protect a "guaranteed" title shot so long as it actually exists. Unless the UFC comes out and officially announces that Parisyan and Fitch must fight to determine a #1 contender, fans will be left wondering about which fighter is truly more deserving.

3) Back to basics for Houston Alexander After a brief departure to BJJ blackbelt territory, Houston Alexander is returning to the comfy confines of "brawl and brawl." James Irvin presents a tailor made challenge for Alexander, an athletic striker willing to stand and trade even to his own detriment. You might wonder what a victory would do for either fighter, but this match-up is being broadcast for no other reason than to entertain fans. And there's nothing wrong with that.

I love the way Alexander has been booked following his first UFC loss. Now that the sparkle is gone and we can dismiss any thoughts that the Omaha based is a credible light heavyweight title challenger, we can get back to appreciating Alexander for what he does best, flaws be damned. No one wants to watch Alexander founder underneath an experienced submission fighter. But seeing Alexander against a fighter that might match his power and athleticism? Count me in.

Unfortunately, Irvin carries huge question marks into this fight. I'm still not sure that Irvin has completely recovered physically or mentally from the injury that resulted in his loss to Thiago Silva. In pre-fight interviews, Irvin sounds more concerned with emerging injury free than taking Alexander into deep waters. While a 100% Irvin could be the perfect fighter to beat Alexander at his own game, this version might not be up to the task.

Either way, the fight should be explosive, exciting, and over before the end of the first round. Alexander will get to look like a superstar, and should Irvin spring the upset, the UFC has a marketable fighter to promote down the road. Anyone willing to wager that Alexander wins this fight via submission? Anyone?

4) A night of mirror images I can't remember a fight card that presented more evenly matched opponents. Top to bottom, fighters are pitted against almost carbon copies of one another, strength versus strength in all but a few matches. We've got wrestlers squaring off (Hamill v. Boetsch, Maynard v. Edgar), BJJ black belts facing one another (Pellegrino v. Diaz), and the battle of the KO artists (Alexander v. Irvin).

No fight is more of a mirror image than the main event. From their size to their Boston accents, Kenny Florian and Joe Lauzon are basically the same fighter. Both athletes are well rounded, both finish fights, and both have terrible nicknames (KenFlo v. J-Lau, I mean, really?). Lauzon represents the future of MMA fighters, well versed in multiple forms. Florian is a self made title contender, arguably the biggest darkhorse in TUF history. Who would have thought that Florian would arguably out perform Diego Sanchez in the UFC?

Hopefully, the fights will be entreating, back and forth match-ups between evenly paired competitors. This edition of Fight Night Live has every chance of going down as the best MMA card televised for free. I do worry that the hype will outweigh the actual in-cage action. Either way, it's must-watch action for all MMA fans.

Picks
Lauzon over Florian, Decision
Parisyan over Alves, Submission
Boetsch over Hamill, TKO
Diaz over Pellegrino, Submission
Alexander over Irvin, KO
Edgar over Maynard, Decision
Thomas over Neer, Submission
Aurelio over Roberts, Submission
Gamburyan over Cox, Submission
Guida over Schiavo, Decision
Sotiropoulos over Mitichyan, Submission
Johnson over Speer, TKO

Notes: Obviously, I like Manny Gamburyan, but I'm surprised no one is mentioning Jeff Cox's huge reach advantage…Matt Hamill has to prove he can hold position on the ground after a takedown, and that he isn't in love with his striking if he wants to beat Tim Boetsch…Clay Guida finds himself back on the undercard in a gatekeeper's role…I'm a big Pellegrino fan, but I think Nate Diaz is for real, meaning he gets the nod.

CONCLUSION

Enjoy the fights. Back next week with a proper report.