The Weekly MMA CrapSHOOT 04.04.08: Early Look at UFC 83 ODDS

Posted by Fredrick Peterson on 04.04.2008

The early odds for UFC 83 are in! Ultimate Fight Night a Success! What is the Deal with Fedor and Nick Diaz?

Welcome to the first edition of the Weekly CrapSHOOT!

Hope everyone is having a great day and ready for the weekend. I'm sure you are spent from a long week of school or work. Hopefully I am partying it up after a Buckeye victory in the NIT tournament. Wahoo my team may be the 66th best team in college basketball! Anyway onto some stuff that has entered my mind the last few days.

Fight Night a Success:

Fight Night lived up to the hype and delivered a full night of exciting fights. I don't think I have ever seen so many fights in three hours. There were three things that stand out in my mind looking back at the event. The first fight started off with a bang as Houston Alexander gets knocked out in eight seconds. Props to James Irvin and his Superman punch. Alexander acted like a crybaby after the fight (he felt there was early stoppage) but I expect to see him back due to all his fights being exciting and ending in the first round.

Karo's complaints were a little more justified. To his credit Karo did look like he was trying to defend himself but was likely to be pounded out anyway. Like Houston he was furious after his fight (I think he even skipped his interview). This loss will definitely cost him his expected title shot. I expect him to return with a vengeance and compete for a title shot by next summer.

Controversial stoppages seemed to be the theme of the night. In the main event after being stopped for illegal elbows in the first, Herb Dean called the fight after a long ground and pound attack from full mount. Still Lauzon was defending himself to the end but was unlikely to improve on his position. Credit to both men putting on an exciting War of a Fight!

Nick Diaz Loves His Pot:

So Nick Diaz is in trouble for pot again. This time he was unable to fight for EliteXC last saturday because he turned in his medicals that listed medicinal marijuana and the CSAC rejected it. I understand that it is legal in California and it doesn't really enhance performance either but Nick Diaz should lay off the grass before fights. He is wasting thousands of dollars by not fighting just so he can smoke a few extra dubies the month before his fight. On another note his brother was very impressive on fight night though. (I love the Triangle Choke and he does it to perfection)

Fedor:

The Fedor news is just wasting my time. Every day there is another organization that is supposedly signing the bastard. The latest report is that he wants 2 million per fight. What the hell is he thinking? Nobody is making close to that number right now. I have never even actually seen him fight live and can't imagine him being worth that kind of money. (I have seen the majority of his fights on Youtube) I know a Randy Couture vs. Fedor fight would be great but its just not a smart business move if Fedor is charging 2 million just to step in the ring (or cage). If the fight was UFC it would likely be the highest buy rate ever, but not so much better than Liddel vs. Ortiz or Liddel vs Couture that it would warrant the 2 million dollars per fight. I hope he gets signed soon so we don't have to waste our time worrying who is going to sign him just so he can fight another can.

CRAPSHOOT:

Rules: Each week I will be looking at the odds on all the upcoming fights. I have 500 to spend on each event. I can spend under 500 but never more. Picks may be placed from either Bodog or BetUS odds. A pick can be locked in early for desirable odds. Once a pick is made it cannot be removed unless a fighter is pulled. A running Tally will be scored to keep track of all wins and losses.

Remember that odds are calculated off 100. A positive number indicates that 100 down would yield whatever the positive number is plus the hundred you spent. A negative number indicates the amount you would have to put down to win 100.

(BD = BoDog, BU = BetUS)

Odds For UFC 83, April 19th

Mac Danzig -500(BD) -500 (BU)
Mark Bocek +350(BD) +300 (BU)

I am quite sure that Danzig is going to win this fight. Still I don't think I want to spend 500 for the chance to win 100. Not worth the risk.

Michael Bisping -330 (BD) -350 (BU)
Charles McCarthy +260 (BD) +250 (BU)

McCarthy stands a chance but I don't think its worth it. Bisping might be somewhat safe for -330.

Nathan Quarry -295 (BD) -350 (BU)
Kalib Starnes +235 (BD) +250 (BU)

Wow all the fights have huge underdogs. I think this may be one of them that the underdog can win. Kalib Starnes did beat Chris Leben. I think he has a chance to weather the storm and take a decision. BetUS has a nice deal here.

Rich Franklin -350 (BD) -400 (BU)
Travis Lutter +250 (BD) +300 (BU)

Big differences in the Odds from Bodog to BetUS. Franklin may be a value at -350 but so might Lutter at +300. I think more people are going to bet on Franklin so I am going to wait a week and see what happens.

GSP -450 (BD) -500 (BU)
Matt Serra +300 (BD) +350 (BU)

While we all know GSP will likely win I still give Serra a chance. Are these the best odds I am going to get?

Early Odds for UFC 84, May 24th

Wanderlei Silva -160 (BD)
Keith Jardine +130 (BD)

I am thinking Jardine with this one but I think the odds could swing a bit better with more people betting on Silva.

Lyoto Machida -200 (BD)
Tito Ortiz +160 (BD)

Ortiz is not the favorite? I am picking Machida as well but I figured more people would bet on Ortiz. I will likely wait this one out as well.

Why are there no early Sherk/Penn odds?

Picks:

The only fight I want to lock in is!



...100 for Matt Serra at +350 (BU)

I don't think that the value is going to get any better than this and I have to go with my boy Matt Serra!

Totals:

UFC 83:
Credits Bet: 100
Possible Gain: 350

OVERALL WINNINGS (Or LOSSES): 0


Next week we will look at the updated odds and see if there are any values that we can lock in before UFC 83. We will also look at any other early odds for UFC 84 or 85. Of course any other random mma thoughts will be included along with the debut of the Weekly MMA CrapSHOOT Banner!

Have a Fantastic Weekend, Don't do anything I wouldn't do!

The One FP