The Weekly MMA CrapSHOOT 04.11.08: 8 Days Till UFC 83!

Posted by Fredrick Peterson on 04.11.2008

What are the latest Odds for St Pierre vs. Serra?!? TUF 7 Finale Already Shaping Up! Who is in Line for Title Shots for the Light Heavyweights and Welterweights?!?

Welcome back for the Second Edition of the Weekly CrapSHOOT!

I hope everybody is pumped for the weekend, I know I am! The NCAA Basketball Championship was a treat for us all as well. I even won $25 for third place in my work pool! Also my Tigers finally won their first game! (Too bad they were the last team in baseball to do so) Hopefully you all enjoy my new banner and this week's CrapSHOOT. On to the MMA!




Ultimate Fighter 7 Finale Card Shaping Up:

Three "confirmed" fights are already lined up for the Ultimate Fighter Finale. None of these three bouts will feature fighters from the season 7 cast. Each fight has been listed on one of the fighter's websites, even though we all know you can't be 100 percent sure until it is confirmed by ufc.com.

In the last Finale there was only one fight with only non-cast members. Hopefully this is an early sign that this event will also be extended to three hours. Kendall Grove vs. Evan Tanner, Josh Burkman vs. Dustin Hazelett, and Marvin Eastman vs. Drew Mcfedries are all set to take place at this event. Also a fourth rumored bout between Diego Sanchez vs. Luigi Fioravanti was also being thrown around a few weeks ago.

I think the Grove vs. Tanner bout will likely/should be the main event even though both fighters are coming off a loss. (two losses in Grove's case) Still this fight can be billed as a TUF winner versus a former Champion. I would very much like to witness Evan Tanner come back to old form and show everyone again that "Da Spyda" has a weak chin.




Fedor vs. Sylvia:

I did not want to comment on the Fedor situation again until something, well really anything was concrete but I am really excited about this possibility. This would be the first time that many Americans will ever get to see Fedor fight live! And this first fight would be against a top 10 opponent! This is the best Fedor scenario I can see besides the Couture fight. The fight is still not officially signed but I hope they can get past the obvious monetary issues. I am assuming that Fedor will get nowhere near the 2 million he is asking. I would expect the fight purse to total around 2 million with Sylvia getting at least $350,000. (Sylvia made 160,000 for his last fight with an additional 60,000 for fight of the night)

Alves the #3 Contender?:

411mania is reporting that Thiago Alves is next in line after Geroges St. Pierre and John Fitch to receive a welterweight title shot. His victory over a lackluster Karo should put him near the front of the line but he should be forced to fight another top name to cement his spot. A fight against the winner of Swick/Davis would be a good choice or maybe Josh Koscheck. I guess I may be getting a little ahead of myself as we have two title fights before we even need to decide the next welterweight title contender. A year of title inactivity will do that.

Light Heavyweights:

Again getting ahead of myself, there are a slew of contenders for the Light Heavyweight Title. Also like the welterweight title a long time of title inactivity makes the contenders line up. The three top contenders are Chuck Liddell, Keith Jardine, and Lyota Machida. All three of them have an upcoming fight that could easily put them back to the end of the line. Jardine and Machida have extremely tough tests in Wanderlei and Tito respectively. Liddell has a slightly easier test in Rashad a borderline top ten guy.

If all three men win their fights I have trouble not giving the go ahead to Keith Jardine. He beat Forrest who already leapfrogged him to a title shot, Chuck Liddell, and potentially the legend Wanderlei Silva. I do not see Liddell moving ahead especially since he already has two losses to Rampage. If Machida takes the nod, he would deserve it as well after victories over Sokoudjou and potentially Tito Ortiz. This is the division I am most looking forward to in the next few months.

CRAPSHOOT:

Rules: Each week I will be looking at the odds on all the upcoming fights. I have 500 to spend on each event. I can spend under 500 but never more. Picks may be placed from either Bodog or BetUS odds. A pick can be locked in early for desirable odds. Once a pick is made it cannot be removed unless a fighter is pulled. A running Tally will be scored to keep track of all wins and losses.

Remember that odds are calculated off 100. A positive number indicates that 100 down would yield whatever the positive number is plus the hundred you spent. A negative number indicates the amount you would have to put down to win 100.

(BD = BoDog, BU = BetUS)

Odds For UFC 83, April 19th

Mac Danzig -550(BD) -500 (BU)
Mark Bocek +350(BD) +300 (BU)

Not much of a change here since last week, Mac is likely to win but I am not going to use the rest of my credits to win 80

Michael Bisping -330 (BD) -330 (BU)
Charles McCarthy +260 (BD) +250 (BU)

Nothing is jumping out here

Nathan Quarry -295 (BD) -300 (BU)
Kalib Starnes +235 (BD) +230 (BU)

The BetUs oods have swung a bit to favor Kalib a little more. I should have jumped on Kalib lasat week at +250.

Rich Franklin -350 (BD) -400 (BU)
Travis Lutter +250 (BD) +300 (BU)

Big differences in the Odds from Bodog to BetUS again this week.

GSP -550 (BD) -500 (BU)
Matt Serra +325 (BD) +350 (BU)

Odds haven't changed too much but I already locked in Serra at +350

Where are all the under card fights? Hopefully they will be available next week.

Early Odds for UFC 84, May 24th

Wanderlei Silva -160 (BD)
Keith Jardine +130 (BD)

Odds stay the same.

Lyoto Machida -200 (BD)
Tito Ortiz +160 (BD)

No change here.

Why are there no early Sherk/Penn odds?

Early Odds for UFC 85, June 7th

Fabricio Werdum -110 (BD)
Brandon Vera -120 (BD)

Brandon Vera the underdog? Hmmmm.

Chuck Liddell -265 (BD)
Rashad Evans +205 (BD)

Chuck not a 300+ favorite?

Picks:

New Picks: 50 on Travis Lutter at +300 (BU) 4.11.08


Franklin will likely win but 50 to win 150 here is reasonable

Previous Picks: 100 on Matt Serra (BU) 4.4.08

Totals

UFC 83:
Credits Bet: 150
Possible Gain: 500

OVERALL WINNINGS (Or LOSSES): 0



Next week we will get our last chance to lock in some more bets before UFC 83. As always my random thoughts on mma from the week will also be on display. A special thanks to Ramano for his Constructive and Intelligent comments from last week. Thanks!

Have a Fantastic Weekend Everyone!

The One FP