Planet Tapout 4.15.08: What If GSP Loses?

Posted by Lotfi Sariahmed on 04.15.2008

It seems to be a foregone conclusion...but what if Serra does it again? In the latest edition of Planet Tapout, 411Mania's Lotfi Sariahmed delves into that possibility and what that means for the UFC! All that plus Miscellaneous Musings and This Week in Fight Picks in the latest edition!

Welcome to the MMA column that will never resort to gimmicks just for a quick buck (I'm looking at you Yamma). It's Planet Tapout here at 411Mania.com and this is the man who likes to think his product would sell itself, Lotfi Sariahmed. Our mailbag last week consisted of "highone" saying the Jim Miller win over Bart Palaszewski at the IFL wasn't that big of an upset. To which I would respond you are correct sir. However, the infamous "casual fan" wouldn't expect Miller to get the win. Then again would a "casual fan" have HDNet and be watching the IFL? The argument is very cyclical my friend. But I digress. Don't forget your emails and comments are always welcome. I'm an equal opportunity email or comment-answerer (yes that is the technical term). The email address is [e-mail]. Now onward to Planet Tapout!




He came into UFC 69 coming off the high of finally winning the UFC Welterweight title from longtime champ Matt Hughes. There wasn't a fighter in MMA who was on a bigger role going into that title fight at UFC 65 than GSP. Since losing to Matt Hughes in their first bout in 2004, the man they call "Rush" pulled off five straight wins against some of the best the division had to offer. Wins over Strasser, "Mayhem", Trigg, Sherk and B.J. Penn finally put St. Pierre back in his role as #1 contender for the welterweight belt as he stared down Matt Hughes on that November night back at the end of 2006. He walked away with the title that night in a dominating performance elevating him from potential star to elite welterweight.

But then everything changed because as the saying goes, the hunter becomes the hunted and GSP had to defend his belt. First opponent? TUF Season 4 winner Matt Serra. We all know what happened after that as Serra pulled off the surprise KO and sent this welterweight division into a tizzy (yes, tizzy is a word). But it also raised a lot of questions about the now former champ.

What's going on in his head? Is he mentally tough? Could this once promising welterweight ever make it back to the top? He went and saw a sports psychologist and started his climb back up. It started with an impressive win over Josh Koscheck. He took the fight to the wrestler and won a dominating unanimous decision. After that fight he was in line for a rematch with Serra or Hughes depending on who would win their title fight at UFC 79. An injury to Serra gave GSP the opportunity to kill two birds with one stone as the saying goes. GSP v. Hughes III at UFC 79 for the interim welterweight belt and then a chance to unify the belts later on against Serra. After disposing of Hughes in impressive fashion, the rematch with Serra is now set for this Saturday night.

And like the first bout, all the talk is about how St. Pierre's going to walk through Serra. Serra's saying last time wasn't a fluke as he just beat up GSP, it wasn't just a lucky punch and he's right, it wasn't. But that isn't stopping the droves of MMA fans from contemplating how a bout between GSP and Jon Fitch would go for the title. Even St. Pierre hasn't really given Serra credit for beating him saying he (St. Pierre) wasn't ready for the fight and was looking past Serra. Even the Vegas oddsmakers have St. Pierre going down as a –450 favorite against Serra (you need to bet $450 to win $100). No matter which way you slice it though; Serra won the first bout, which makes this far from a foregone conclusion. So let me pose the following question, what happens if St. Pierre loses to Serra…again?

For those of you who immediately reacted by saying, it won't, don't kid yourselves. This is a mixed martial arts bout. Anyone can beat anyone on any given day. If you honestly think this is impossible you're fooling yourself. Serra has only been finished once in his career and that was the spinning back fist at the hands of Shonie Carter. He lost to Karo Parisyan only by decision. He's a tough guy and could knock off GSP again. He's (St. Pierre) in a very similar position to their first fight. He's a heavy favorite and a lot of people are acting like the first fight really just never happened. But if St. Pierre loses, what does this mean for the elite welterweight's career?

He has two dominating wins over whom many consider the best welterweight of all time in MMA (up to this point) in Matt Hughes. But, like Matt Hughes, he would have Matt Serra would be his Dennis Hallman. When GSP is all said and done in this game, we'd look back and wonder (depending on how Serra finishes his career of course) how did he lose to that guy? You wonder the same thing about Hughes (now that he's basically done with his career) when it comes to Dennis Hallman. So a 2nd loss to Serra could really put a stain on an otherwise potentially outstanding career. But he's still a young fighter yet, what about his immediate future?

Well this will undoubtedly knock him down on the contender's list. To where exactly? Well that's an interesting question. After his first loss to Serra he had to fight Koscheck then received another shot at the belt. A 2nd loss to Serra would mean he wouldn't get a title shot at least until Serra lost the belt. Jon Fitch is the next guy in line for the title so he'll obviously be busy with Serra. Thiago Alves might be a logical fight to throw him into next but why would they risk another potential contender after Alves just knocked off Karo Parisyan? What about Parisyan? GSP v. Parisyan could work as a next fight for both fighters. Neither guy is one fight away from a title fight (given a GSP loss of course) and that would be an entertaining fight to say the least. The biggest problem for St. Pierre with a loss is that he'd be in limbo. Even if Fitch were to beat Serra, what would put GSP ahead of everyone else in line for a shot at the belt? Heck, if you give me long enough to think about it, Matt Hughes might find a way to get another title shot if GSP loses on Saturday. And where St. Pierre's career goes from there is really anyone's guess.


Miscellaneous Musings!
●Tim Sylvia leaving the UFC hurts the UFC (no matter how much no one wants to admit it) and really doesn't do much of anything for Sylvia's career. The UFC needs heavyweights because essentially buying PRIDE to stock up that division, it has "Minotauro," Brandon Vera, Fabricio Werdum and Frank Mir…and that's it. As for Sylvia, I understand he has the fight with Fedor, but he still needs to go out and put on an entertaining fight. Otherwise he's still just a big clumsy heavyweight to his critics.

●Yep, Yamma Pit Fighting is still pretty hilarious.

●This isn't a great undercard for UFC 83 but there are a couple of fights I'll be paying attention to. First, Cain Velasquez has too much hype behind him for me to not pick him at least once. If he falls on his face against Brad Morris, then I'll wait for him to put a few wins together.

●When was the last time we saw Nate Quarry or Kalib Starnes? It seems like years ago. Starnes hasn't looked very impressive in his last three bouts in the UFC and I just think Quarry will overwhelm him here.

●The solution to these protests surrounding the carrying of the Olympic Torch? Just have Fedor carry it—



●While Yamma Pit Fighting was hilarious, so was Saturday night's fight between Miguel Cotto and Alfonso Gomez. Talk about being overmatched. Gomez's face was going in 15 different directions. Then again you have to give credit to Gomez for actually staying in there and fighting as opposed to Kermit Cintron who wanted to be protected because he was a champ.

●If you're not watching UFC 83 Saturday night, there is NO REASON you shouldn't watch the Joe Calzaghe v. Bernard Hopkins bout. None. If you don't have HBO, find a buddy who does and go there to watch it. Because this fight is going to be great.


This Week in Fight Picks!



UFC 83: Serra v. St. Pierre II
Jonathan Goulet over Kuniyoshi Hironaka
Cain Velasquez over Brad Morris
Rich Clementi over Sam Stout
Demian Maia over Ed Herman
Alan Belcher over Jason Day
Jason MacDonald over Joe Doerksen
Mac Danzig over Mark Bocek
Michael Bisping over Charles McCarthy
Nate Quarry over Kalib Starnes
Rich Franklin over Travis Lutter

UFC Welterweight Title Bout: Georges St. Pierre over Matt Serra




Joe Calzaghe over Bernard Hopkins (but at +230, Bernard Hopkins is a very good bet)


That's it for this week on Planet Tapout! Don't forget about the mailbag and comments. Send me your thoughts, loving, hateful and otherwise. The email address is [e-mail] .

We like Meehan. He made the banner. So in return go read his column. He went to Wrestlemania. Go read about it.

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Make sure you come back next Tuesday for another edition of Planet Tapout! This week in MMA gives us a Sportfight show featuring Enoch Wilson and Mike Joy on Friday. Art of War and TKO are set for cards on Saturday and don't forget about the UFC's foray into Canada with UFC 83: Serra v. St. Pierre II. Ironically enough, it features Georges St. Pierre taking on Matt Serra. It would be awkward if they weren't on the card. Enjoy the fights everyone.