411MMA Fact or Fiction 04.16.08: Franklin as UFC Middleweight Champion, Sylvia a Threat to Emelianenko, Bisping's Effect on the 185-pound Division, More

Posted by Bren Oliver on 04.16.2008

Has the UFC treated Matt Serra unfairly? Will YAMMA still be kicking and flopping to the ground like a beached whale come April of 2009? Will Rich Franklin ever don UFC gold again? Will Georges St. Pierre cruise to the Welterweight Championship at UFC 83? Those things and more as Morgan Marx and Adam Tool add their own unique flavors to this week's 411 MMA Fact or Fiction!

A lot has happened since Dana White fired up the PPV-circus 49 days ago. Fedor Emelianenko becoming a free agent, the Shamrock family losing three bouts, Anderson Silva announcing his intentions to box Roy Jones Jr., Karo Parisyan's title hopes going down the drain, and Tim Sylvia parting ways with the UFC are but a few of the stories capturing our collective attentions since March 1st and Columbus, Ohio. And, without a doubt, UFC 82 was a grand offering indeed! Heath Herring looked as good as he's ever been, Jon Fitch solidified himself as being next in line for a UFC Welterweight Championship opportunity, and Yushin Okami put a damper on Evan Tanner's comeback story. And, of course, who can forget the initial dominance of Dan Henderson in his fight against Anderson Silva, only for "Hendo" to end up on the wrong end of Silva's strikes and ultimately choked out in the second round? Memories were made for sure, and if UFC 83 is any different in its imagery and entertainment, I'll certainly be surprised.

It is the UFC's venture North of the Border that is the meat of this week's "Fact or Fiction", prepared by two of our finest hash-slingers, and served up with sides of Emelianenko vs. Sylvia and YAMMA Pit Fighting. I'm pleased to be joined by Morgan Marx, Zone veteran and Iron Chef of sorts, with the challenger being none other than one of 411Mania MMA's newest columnists Adam Tool. Marx's "The MMA News Report" can be found here every Wednesday (like today!), while Tool keeps Saturday's locked down with "The Fightin' Stance News".

Fellow "News Report" columnists...are you ready? Then, America, with an enlarged heart and an empty skull, I say unto you the words of my Uncle...


ALLEZ FACT OR FICTION!!!!!!!


1. Given that his first defense was booked in his opponent's backyard, and an interim-title awarded simply because he was out four months with an injury, the UFC has treated Welterweight Champion Matt Serra with an inexcusible level of disrespect.


Adam Tool: FICTION. Anderson Silva's title defense against Rich Franklin was in Franklin's hometown, but it didn't end up making much of a difference. The UFC scheduled their biggest draw for the location they were going to be at and if Serra wouldn't have been ready GSP would still be on the card. I also believe the interim title was created more to ensure that St. Pierre and Hughes got five rounds if necessary, since it was the rubber match and both of their previous fights had been five rounds. Not to mention the fact that both men had #1 contender status and Serra pulled out about a month before the show. I think the UFC has gotten a lot out of Serra in the year since he won the title, since they got to promote 2007 as "the year of the upset" and get fans into the anything-can-happen mentality. Of course there was also his run as a coach on "The Ultimate Fighter" and he did fine there too. So I'll go "fiction" on this one, although if you took the second part of the question and replaced ‘UFC' with ‘UFC fans' then it would be a definite fact.

Morgan Marx: FICTION. I have to agree with Adam on this one (and not just because I heart Tool and Adam Jones). When TUF 4 was conceived, I doubt the UFC thought they would get this much mileage from one of the winners. Serra has embraced his role as the spoiler and has likely benefited from every slight shown his way. The UFC has continued to promote Serra and his upset over St-Pierre at every turn: on highlight shows, during TUF 6, in ad campaigns, etc. If the UFC ever persuades New York to regulate MMA, I wouldn't be surprised if Serra is given a prime slot on that card, assuming he's still relevant within the organization.

SCORE: 1 for 1. In fairness to Serra, Anderson Silva had two title defenses prior to facing Franklin in Cincinatti, and I'm not so sure "The Terror" wouldn't have minded defending his title in a regular manner instead of having to wait eight months. Whether or not Dana White wanted to make Hughes vs. St. Pierre a twenty-five minute fight, I still think it's disrespectful to have created a secondary title due to a man being injured for 3-4 months.


2. Georges St. Piere will finish Matt Serra within the first three rounds of their UFC 83 fight.


Adam Tool: FACT. I'll be talking about this fight a lot this week between the Roundtable and my news column on Saturday, so I'm going to keep it simple. I see this fight in my head going the exact same way as the first one, only this time with the roles completely reversed. Serra will be game but nobody can touch St. Pierre when he's fully motivated and healthy. GSP overwhelms Serra and finishes with strikes in the first or second round.

Morgan Marx: FICTION. I think I'm actually going to give Serra a bit of credit here. If nothing else, the current Welterweight champ is difficult to finish. Serra has gone the distance with strikers and black belts multiple times. I think GSP will be patient in this fight, similar to his second go round with Matt Hughes. At his best, St-Pierre is calm within the octagon. He doesn't attack in relentless fashion, but waits for his opponent to make mistakes. St-Pierre has five rounds to finish Serra. I won't be surprise if the end comes in early in the fourth as opposed to the first.

SCORE: 1 for 2. Every ounce of me wants to say Serra will be roadkill come Saturday night but I just can't pull the trigger for some reason.


3. Rich Franklin will never again be UFC Middleweight Champion.


Adam Tool: FACT. I went back and forth here, mainly due to that little word never. It's hard to say if "Ace" will even get an opportunity to ever fight for the title again, because of course that would first require someone beating Anderson Silva. Whoever does that will no doubt be some super-human MMA messiah and I would think Franklin will not be able to defeat this freakazoid ultra-fighter, should he even exist. This goes back to the question of who exactly can stop the reign of "The Spider." Wait, what was the question again? Oh that‘s right, Rich Franklin. Nope, sorry Franklin fans but you won't see him wearing UFC gold ever again.

Morgan Marx: FICTION. If Franklin goes on to win four consecutive fights in the UFC, he'll have earned another title shot regardless of the current champion. It's a fact that Franklin won't be rushed into a third fight with Silva. Fans are burned out with the contest and the UFC has to build contenders at 185. But we don't know how things will play out down the road. For one, Silva might not stick around at 185. If The Spider decides to move up to Light Heavyweight (or to try out boxing) perhaps the UFC turns to Franklin to shore up the Middleweight division. Franklin will spend his next few fights rebuilding his name, but at 33, he'll definitely have another shot at UFC gold before his days are up.

SCORE: 1 for 3. I am comfortable saying the only way Franklin ever becomes UFC Middleweight Champion again is if Anderson Silva decides to leave the UFC in 2009 to box Roy Jones Jr. (as he's alluded to)...


---SWITCH!!!---


4. Michael Bisping was wise to drop to 185-pounds and will make a major impact on the UFC's Middleweight division.


Morgan Marx: FICTION. On name value alone, Bisping immediately makes an impact at 185. The Count's decision to cut weight makes sense from every angle. The middleweight division is lacking fighters with star appeal and desperately needs new blood to challenge Anderson Silva. At 185, Bisping won't be giving up quite as much of a size advantage to opponents and he should be quicker. Unfortunately, Bisping will encounter similar issues at 185 that forced the drop in the first place. Fighters like Yushin Okami and Dan Henderson are large, powerful wrestlers. Until the Brit proves he can dictate where a fight takes place (or he develops better jiu jitsu from his back), I'm not sure we're looking at a future title challenger.

Adam Tool: FICTION. This really is a two-part question. Was Bisping wise to drop to 185? Absolutely. The light heavyweight division is stacked with some of the best fighters in the world and I don't think "The Count" would have had much of a chance against someone like "Rampage" or Chuck, especially when he couldn't beat a mid-level guy like Rashad Evans. Which leads to the second part of the question, can he make a major impact at middleweight? I don't think so. I believe if he can rack up a few wins, then he'll get a shot at Anderson Silva. If that fight happens, I don't predict anything but another dominant win for "The Spider." Like Morgan said Bisping will also have a tough time with much stronger opponents like Okami and Henderson, and I'm not even sure he could give Rich "Gatekeeper" Franklin a run for his money.

SCORE: 2 for 4. I agree with both of you. I don't see Bisping beating any of the Middleweight Division's top contenders (Franklin, Okami, Henderson, and Silva). I'm not even sure he can beat Patrick Cote.


5. Tim Sylvia poses a serious threat to Fedor Emelianenko's win-streak and his claim as the #1 Heavyweight Mixed Martial Artist in the world.


Morgan Marx: FACT. Even if you loathe Sylvia's personality, you can't deny that the former UFC champion poses serious skills at heavyweight. An in shape, non-injured Tim Sylvia can make life miserable for any heavyweight, even Fedor himself. I think Fedor will enter the fight (should it happen) as a solid favorite, but until the PRIDE heavyweight champion can take the fight to the ground, there's no telling how it will end up. Sylvia showed improved hand speed and good combinations against Minotauro. Fedor has taken punishment on his feet before. At 6'8" and with dangerous striking, Sylvia can definitely be the first man to drop a legitimate loss on Emelianenko's record.


Adam Tool: FICTION. I agree with Morgan that Sylvia has the skills to give any heavyweight a hard time. However I don't think "The Maine-iac" poses a huge threat to Fedor, simply because we're talking about the most dominant heavyweight to ever compete in MMA. I guess the big question is which Tim Sylvia will show up for the fight? Will it be the wild swinging powerhouse that dominated the UFC heavyweight ranks for several years? Or will it be the boring conservative fighter that won his last three fights by decision? In either case, Sylvia has a major weak point and that's submission defense. I expect Fedor to capitalize on that and add another arm to his collection.

SCORE: 2 for 5. Uh oh...2/5?!? There could be trouble in paradise!


6. YAMMA Pit Fighting will be out of business within the next twelve months.


Morgan Marx: FACT. I'll leave the financial breakdowns to our own Leland Roling (take that, Adam Swift!). But all signs point to a one and done event for YAMMA. Reviews were overwhelmingly negative, attendance reports were sparse at best, and the whole idea seems out of place for MMA in 2008. I believe a women's tournament (plus Master's division fights!) was scheduled for the next YAMMA event. I can't imagine that will draw major ratings. It's tough for any start-up MMA organization (see Global Fighting Championship). When your major draw (the Pit) has the exact opposite effect (more takedowns/decisions) you're probably in trouble.

Adam Tool: FACT. Did you watch the event? Yeah, me neither. I'm sure the buyrate for this show will be abysmal, and from all the reviews I've read there was nothing worth seeing on the card. With the UFC putting on great shows month after month and EliteXC ready to premiere on network television, I don't see any way YAMMA can hope to compete by rolling out washed-up veterans and freak-show fighters like "Butterbean." Casual fans don't care, and hardcore fans just point and laugh. I believe they'll be able to put on another event, but I see no chance for any long term success.

SCORE: 3 for 6. Meatloaf would like to let you know, "Don't be sad...cause three outta six, ain't bad..."


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Join us next week when two more participants discuss the fallout from UFC 83, the possibility of Anderson Silva leaving the UFC when his contract expires, and other happenings in the world of Mixed Martial Arts...