Cardio Freak MMA News Report 4.17.08: UFC 83 Preview

Posted by Jeremy Lambert on 04.17.2008

Cardio Freak returns with a complete breakdown of Georges St. Pierre vs. Matt Serra 2 and a look at the rest of the UFC 83 card. Can Matt Serra repeat his upset performance from one year ago? Was it the mental game that beat GSP at UFC 69? Should Matt Serra be such an underdog? All of those questions are answered inside. Plus the latest news in MMA is all just one click away.



Welcome back to Cardio Freak everyone. I am your host Jeremy ‘Montreal, Canada' Lambert.

The next few weeks (including this week) are going to be out of control crazy for me. The college year is coming to an end, which means final projects and exams. I don't plan on missing a week due to any of that but if things are below my already low standards, you know why. Once summer starts, expect things to pick up in the column. Now, lets talk fighting.

Top Story of The Week

UFC 83: St. Pierre vs. Serra 2

One of the biggest MMA shows of the year will take place this Saturday in Montreal, Canada. Georges St. Pierre comes home to battle the current Welterweight Champion Matt Serra. It may not be the strongest card ever on paper but being the first UFC event in Canada and the homecoming of GSP, this event sold out in a matter of minutes.

I'm sure you don't need a history lesson on GSP vs. Serra at this point but I'm going to give it to you anyway. You can thank me later. Matt Serra won The Ultimate Fighter 4: The Comeback and earned a Welterweight title shot against Georges St. Pierre. At the time, St. Pierre was the hottest fighter in the company, having just destroyed Matt Hughes to win the title. Serra, on the other hand, was a lifelong midcard fighter who got his chance to shine thanks to a reality show where he looked mediocre throughout. On the day of the fight, Serra was a huge underdog. No one thought a mediocre reality guy was going to defeat arguably the best P4P fighter in the world. They were wrong. Matt Serra pulled off the upset of the year when he knocked out (or tapped out) Georges St. Pierre in the 1st round. One year later, the script isn't much different.

Since defeating GSP and capturing the Welterweight title, Matt Serra has not fought. He appeared as a coach on The Ultimate Fighter 6: Team Hughes vs. Team Serra and was scheduled to fight Matt Hughes this past December but had to pull out with a back injury. After a Dana White suicide watch, St. Pierre stepped in. It's been just over a year since UFC 69: Shootout where Serra defeated St. Pierre and yet it feels like 2007 all over again. After stepping in for Serra, GSP once again destroyed Matt Hughes to capture the Interim Welterweight Title. Serra is no longer the mediocre reality fighter but not having fought since last April, he's now the mediocre fighter who got lucky. GSP is once again a huge favorite in this fight and if that wasn't enough for Serra to overcome, he has to put up with the hometown Canadian crowd. The more things change, the more they stay the same.

Most people are once again counting out Serra in this fight. Excuses like, "He's coming off a tough injury", "he hasn't fought in a year" or "he's fighting the best GSP ever" have been said and heard for weeks now. But when you look at it, this is a good match up for Serra.

Since the last fight with Serra, St. Pierre's wrestling has improved leaps and bounds, to the point where he almost tried out for the Canadian Olympic team. Against Josh Koscheck and Matt Hughes, that wrestling was on full display and neither man had an answer for it. Matt Serra is no Koscheck or Hughes. If and when GSP decides to put Serra on his back, the BJJ black belt will likely have an answer for it. In fact, it might be where Serra wants the fight to be. Putting a wrestler on their back is one of the best gameplans in the business. Putting a BJJ expert on their back is asking for trouble. GSP has very good submission defense though. BJ Penn wasn't able to catch GSP in a submission and I believe Penn is a much better BJJ artist than Serra. That's not to say Serra can't catch GSP because Serra operates different than Penn but it's going to be difficult for Serra to shock GSP with a submission. It may even take a mental mistake.

Nice segue right? It's no secret that St. Pierre doesn't have the strongest mental game in MMA. We found that out in his first fight against Matt Hughes, where he couldn't look him in the eyes and ended up submitting with one second left in the first round instead of holding on. After the loss to Matt Serra, St. Pierre started seeing a sports psychologist to help him mentally. He now carries around a foam brick as a symbol of extra weight and pressure and leaves at the hotel room before fights. If you closely watch the end of Serra vs. St, Pierre 1 or just listen to Matt Serra, you'll know that GSP tapped out just before the ref jumped in to end the fight. Much of the fight game is a mental game and that's a disadvantage GSP is going to face anytime he's in there against top competition.

Against Koscheck and Hughes, it looked to me like St. Pierre still had the fight with Serra in his head. I'm not a fighter and I don't play one on TV but I would think that when you step into the Octagon against a new opponent, everything prior should leave your mind. Instead of standing with Koscheck and Hughes, GSP decided to wrestle. Was it a smart gameplan to put two wrestlers on their back? Of course. But was it also a sign that GSP didn't want to get hit even though he was a much better striker than Koscheck and Hughes? I believe so. I don't think a lot of fighters like to get hit but when you're in this sport, you can't be afraid to get hit. After the Serra fight, GSP seems afraid to get hit.

We all saw what Serra can do on his feet in the last fight. He's forced to get inside, throw short and compact punches, and get out. He has deceptive power in his hands and he used that to shock GSP. If GSP is afraid of getting hit, he's got to use his reach advantage and keep Serra on the outside. And if he gets inside, either clinch or take him down. Overall, I think GSP is a much better striker than Serra. He's a lot more technical and does a very good job of mixing up his strikes to throw his opponent off. If he wants to stand, he'll have the advantage. I just question his willingness to stand and trade with Serra.

If Matt Serra is going to win this fight, he's got to do it early. GSP is a known slow starter with both of his professional losses coming in the first round and if he's lost a round on a decision card, he's lost the first. Once he makes it out of the first round, he seems to find a rhythm and it can't be handled. He's a lot like Anderson Silva where once he gets that extra bounce in his step, it's going to be tough to stop him. If those two don't find that step in the first round and you can't put them away, they're sure to find it in the second round and then it's just too late.

At UFC 77: Hostile Territory, Anderson Silva traveled to Rich Franklin's home of Cincinnati, Ohio to defend his Middleweight title. Despite the home crowd advantage, Franklin was unable to capture the title in front of the hometown crowd. This Saturday, Matt Serra travels to Georges St. Pierre's home of Montreal, Canada to defend his Welterweight title. While I can't stand the idea of the challenger getting home Octagon advantage, I can't argue with the success or hype of each event. The problem for the challenger is that I think it gives them even more pressure to perform well and win, especially if they're a huge favorite like GSP. There is very little pressure on Matt Serra in this fight to go out there and do well. He already knows that thousands of Canadians are ready to boo him out of the building and he embraces that. If GSP wins the title this Saturday, the reaction and moment could be one of the biggest spectacles in MMA history. Randy Couture returning and winning the Heavyweight title was huge but they weren't in Washington where Randy Couture is MMA. Georges St. Pierre is MMA in Canada. He's the Wayne Gretzky, Mario Lemieux, and Sidney Crosby of MMA in Canada.

When this fight was announced, I foolishly thought it would be a walk for St. Pierre. The more I thought about it, the more I wanted to pick Serra because it's a good style fight for him. Having just broke down the fight, it seems like I'm leaning more towards Serra than GSP. In the end though, I think this is GSP's fight. Mentally, I think he's in a better place than he was a year ago although Serra holds an edge. I also like that he's fought twice and looked strong since that loss to Serra while Serra has done nothing. If Serra is going to win again, it's going to be early. If this thing goes past round one, I fully expect St. Pierre to claim gold in his hometown.

Outside of the main event, this card is filled with Middleweight fights that don't mean too much. Sure some guys will pick up good wins but does anyone really want to fight Anderson Silva. Not only that but just looking at the potential winners, none of them stand a chance against Silva in my mind.

Rich Franklin and Travis Lutter return after losses to Anderson Silva. Lutter has been inactive for a year after failing to make weight in the biggest fight of his career, looking good against Silva in the first round, and eventually losing to the current Middleweight champion. Franklin returns after once again getting destroyed by Anderson Silva in his home state of Ohio. I'm not really sure what this fight means because only extreme haters of Rich Franklin want to see Silva vs. Franklin 3 and I'm not sure how much faith UFC has in Lutter after screwing up his chance last time. I like Franklin in this fight just because I think he's the best fighter in the division, which should speak to Anderson Silva's dominance.

Nate Quarry will battle Kalib Starnes in a fight Starnes needs to desperately win. If he loses this fight, I would have to say that Starnes gets released from his contract. Nate is looking to continue his comeback trail and could use this win just as much as Starnes. I've never been a fan of Starnes so I'm pulling for Nate in this one and I think he has what it takes to pull it off. I really question Starnes' heart at this point in the game. He also seems to want to fight but something goes wrong, the doctor has to check on him, and the fight gets stopped. I think Nate knocks him out early.

Michael Bisping will be making his Middleweight debut this Saturday against Charles McCarthy in a fight that really no one cares about. I have mixed feelings on Bisping as he comes off as a prick and he's a pretty overrated fighter by the TUF junkies but there's just something about him that makes me like him. A win over Charles McCarthy doesn't really mean much unless it's a dominant victory and even then I don't think he could beat Franklin, Henderson, or Silva. McCarthy will probably get overlooked but he's got some very good submission skills and Bisping has been prone to being caught in submissions, especially against guys that he should beat. I think Bisping will win but it won't come easy.

In another weight class debut, Mac Danzig moves down to 155 to take on Mark Bocek. If Mac Danzig wins this fight, he'll be a little fish in a big Lightweight pond. Danzig is a well-rounded fighter who has a huge heart when it comes to the sport. Bocek strength is on the ground but I don't think Danzig will have too many problems with him.

As expected, there's a lot of Canadians on the prelims to get the crowd hot for the main show. The preliminary card is once again a strong showcase of talent where a lot of the fights could easily be on the main card.

This is another strong card from UFC and the hot Canada crowd should make the event that much more exciting. Hopefully UFC continues the streak of good PPVs as every PPV this year has been average at worst. I'm looking forward to this card and no matter the result of the main event the reaction should be priceless.

UFC Event News & Notes

According to MMAWeekly, Tyson Griffin will battle Marcus Aurelio at UFC 86

Anytime Tyson Griffin is on the card, I'm excited. He didn't have the best showing of his career in his last fight at UFC 81 but he's still Tyson Griffin and he's still one of the most exciting fighters in the company. Aurelio is a good fight for Griffin and is coming off a quick 16-second submission win. This should be a fun battle with all aspects of the game being displayed.

UFC Fighter News & Notes

On TAGG Radio, Nate Diaz stated that he would love to fight Manny Gamburyan in the near future

So much for me thinking Manny would be a step down for him. I guess Nate just wants to shut Manny and critics up and who can blame him? I think the TUF5 Finale left a sour taste in the mouths of many fans as Diaz won on a fluke. Manny has been on a roll since returning from injury, finishing his opponents in the 1st round. A Diaz victory would finally solidify his TUF5 win and his status in the division while a Manny victory would have people crowning him the true TUF5 champion and moving him up the long ladder.

Other MMA News & Notes

YAMMA Pit Fighting took place this past Friday and was largely a complete fail

I watched this event and was highly upset that I wasted my time. Ricco Rodriguez was the only name in the Heavyweight Tournament on the card and the rest of the card was filled with geeks and guys past their prime. The new YAMMA structure was supposed to increase the action but largely made no difference. Travis Wuiff ended up winning the one-man tournament, winning all fights by boring decision.

The problem with the one night tournament format nowadays is the fact that some guys will want to win early and quick while others want to waste little energy and ride out the decision. We saw what won out on Friday. With one five minute round, not a lot is proven. A slow starter like Georges St. Pierre could actually lose in the first round of one of these tournaments to a solid fighter (but not on the level of GSP) just because he could have a bad round. PRIDE got it right in splitting the tournament into two different events and considering New Jersey sanctioned this tournament, I think a company could pull something like that off. The first round could be 3 5-minute rounds on Event 1, the second round could be 3 3-minute rounds on Event 2, and the finals could be 3 5-minute rounds on Event 2. I don't believe a tournament always determines the best fighter because of injuries and what not but a lot of people, including myself, love the tournaments.

What this company did right is putting the veteran guys with the veteran guys. Tito vs. Ken did HUGE business and that's what UFC was looking for but any fan who thought Ken Shamrock had a chance against Tito Ortiz was probably on drugs. Hughes vs. Gracie is another example. Veteran guys can't keep up with the young guys anymore because the sport has evolved so much. But veteran guys can still fight veteran guys, pretty much like an old timers league. Business won't be as good as Tito vs. Ken for a number of reasons but at least they won't be complete wash fights.

If YAMMA plans to move forward, changes have to be made. The structure looks cool but I don't think it really does anything for the company or the fights. The tournament has a niche audience but even that audience will turn on it if it's no good. The old timers league will appeal to some older fans but no star is going to be created from it. The biggest problem though is the fact that there's just so much MMA on that it's tough for anyone to get established unless they get stars or strike a major deal.

EliteXC has signed Robbie Lawler, Gina Carano, and Kimbo Slice to multi-fight deals

All 3 signings make sense for EliteXC. They obviously like Lawler because he likes to stand and trade and he's decently known. Problem with him is that he seems to be injured every 2 weeks. Gina is obviously the most well known Women's fighter in the US and EliteXC would love to push Women's fighting as a legit thing with Carano as the catalyst. And anyone who questions the long term signing of Kimbo Slice is just a moron.

AND IT'S ALL OVER~!

That wraps it up for this week folks. I'll be back next week with a complete review of UFC 83 along with any other news on the MMA scene. Take care.