The Weekly MMA CrapSHOOT 04.18.08: On the Eve of UFC 83!
Posted by Fredrick Peterson on 04.18.2008
All the ODDS for UFC 83 are in! Who are the Coaches for TUF Season 8?!? What happens to Rich Franklin and Matt Serra after UFC 83?!?
Welcome back for the UFC 83 Edition of the Weekly CrapSHOOT!
Its weekend time! That also mean its time for another Edition of the Weekly CrapShoot! On the Eve of the first UFC PPV in a long time we have a lot to look forward to. Not only do we have the PPV this week but we also have the NFL Draft quickly approaching. Then on May 24 we have UFC 84 with three fantastic bouts I am very excited for: Jardine/Wanderlei, Tito/Machida, and Sherk/Penn. On top of that on May 31 we have the debut of EliteXC on CBS featuring Kimbo, Gina Carano, and Scott Smith/Robbie Lawler. Lots to look forward to but lets get down to this week's business.
Rumored New Coaches For TUF Season 8:
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and Frank Mir are the rumored coaches for TUF 8. While it is a rumor right now it does make a lot of sense and is very possible. Heavyweights have yet to appear as the set of coaches on the show. Actually Randy Couture is the only heavyweight coach at all and he was a light heavy at the time. While it makes sense there are two main reasons that I do not like this choice.
Number One: Frank Mir would not be an ideal choice for me to be a coach. I did not think he was even close to a title shot and this would propel him into number one contender. While Mir's Ju-Jitsu is second to none I still think that his cardio would make him a poor choice for a coach. He often comes into fights out of shape and I do not think that is something that the new crop of UFC fighters should be learning.
Number Two: I am not excited at all about the idea of putting the Heavyweight title on the shelf for 10 months or however long it will take for these guys to meet in the cage. The thing I hate the most about UFC is waiting for the fights to actually happen. Look at the backup behind the Welterweight title which all came from TUF. We also still have months until Rampage fights Forrest Griffin and it will have been a year in May since this title has been defended. I know that the contenders aren't exactly lining up for Minataruo but I would still love to see him fight someone.
Where will the UFC do with Matt Serra if he Loses?:
While I am giving Matt a chance it is very likely that he will lose on Saturday and lose his welterweight title. This leaves him in a very interesting place. Most feel that he did not deserve a shot at the title in the first place. In many polls Matt is barely ranked in the top five and some people do not even rank him in the top ten. If he loses on Saturday he will likely drop to the 7,8, or 9 spot.
The first and most likely option will be to have the grudge match against Matt Hughes. After the TUF buildup this fight would still garner some interest and could even headline an event. This match would be a must win if Serra would want to stay relevant in the UFC.
The Second option would be to build him back up in the welterweight division. Either feed him a guy to try to get him back on his feet or put him in a relevant match against a future title contender. Matches that would be very relevant to the title picture would include Diego Sanchez, Josh Koschek, Thiago Alves, or Karo.
The third option (one I kinda like) would be to move him to the lightweight division. This is where he has fought most of his fights and would no longer be outsized by the majority of his opponents. He could easily move into title contention with a win over Joe Stevenson, Tyson Griffin, or Kenny Florian. I think he presents a good challenge for any of the afore mentioned fighters.
What to do with Rich Franklin:
Rich Franklin may be the hardest fighter to figure out what to do with. He has already defeated the top two names below Silva (Macdonald and Okami) but we know that he can not fight for the title for a long time if ever. Now if somehow someone defeats Silva, Franklin will jump right back in the picture, but for now he is in limbo.
Option One: Keep Rich Franklin a gatekeeper. Continue to have him fight the best the Middleweight division has to offer. This lines up exciting fights and people will pay to see Franklin fight. The main drawback to this is that Franklin will most likely beat every single one of these up-and-coming fighters. This will leave nobody to face Silva.
Option Two: Move Franklin up to Light heavyweight. His ultra technical skills and sound game plans will make him a tough fight for anyone in this weight class. While these fights may be difficult for Rich it is not impossible to see him win a few fights and get a crack at the belt in this crowded division. This would also give him a chance to redeem his only non-Silva loss against Lyota Machida. Matches against Forrest, Jardine, Liddell, Wanderlei, and Rampage are all fights people would pay to see.
CRAPSHOOT:
Rules: Each week I will be looking at the odds on all the upcoming fights. I have 500 to spend on each event. I can spend under 500 but never more. Picks may be placed from either Bodog or BetUS odds. A pick can be locked in early for desirable odds. Once a pick is made it cannot be removed unless a fighter is pulled. A running Tally will be scored to keep track of all wins and losses.
Remember that odds are calculated off 100. A positive number indicates that 100 down would yield whatever the positive number is plus the hundred you spent. A negative number indicates the amount you would have to put down to win 100.
(BD = BoDog, BU = BetUS)
Odds For UFC 83, April 19th
FINALLY THE UNDERCARD ODDS ARE IN!
Jonathan Goulet +190(BD) +175(BU)
Kuniyoshi Hironaka -240(BD) -220(BU)
I am very surprised that Goulet is not the favorite. (411 mania is split) I think he is going to lose but I am not ready to bet 220 on him.
Brad Morris +200(BD) +190(BU)
Cain Velasquez -260(BD) -240(BU)
This should be an exciting fight and I think Morris has a good shot with his additional experience and great conditioning.
Rich Clementi +120(BD) +130(BU)
Sam Stout -160(BD) +-160(BU)
Not bad odds for Clementi. I put this fight at 50/50.
Ed Herman +140(BD) +160(BU)
Damian Maia -180(BD) -200(BU)
Wow most of the 411 staff has Herman winning this. Still I think it is Maia but I don't like risking 180.
Jason Day +300(BD) +300(BU)
Alan Belcher-450(BD) -400(BU)
Ouch don't like these odds at all.
Jason MacDonald -165(BD) -165(BU)
Joe Doerksen +135(BD) -135 (BU)
I like the value on MacDonald. This fight should go the same way as it did the first time. (MacDonald victory)
Mac Danzig -550(BD) -500 (BU)
Mark Bocek +350(BD) +350 (BU)
Not worth my time.
Michael Bisping -330 (BD) -300 (BU)
Charles McCarthy +260 (BD) +230 (BU)
Nothing
Nathan Quarry -265 (BD) -280(BU)
Kalib Starnes +205 (BD) +200 (BU)
Ouch, I was really hoping to get a little better odds on Kalib but for the second straight week they have swung against me. I am going to pass.
Rich Franklin -350 (BD) -400 (BU)
Travis Lutter +250 (BD) +300 (BU)
Already Locked In.
GSP -500 (BD) -500 (BU)
Matt Serra +300 (BD) +350 (BU)
Odds haven't changed much again but I already locked in Serra at +350
Early Odds for UFC 84, May 24th
Wanderlei Silva -160 (BD)
Keith Jardine +130 (BD)
Odds stay the same.
BJ Penn -225(BD)
Sean Sherk +185(BD)
Sherk looks like a value so far. Lets wait till BetUS has Odds
Picks:
New Picks: 330 on Jason MacDonald -165(BD)
I think this is a gimme.
Previous Picks:
100 on Matt Serra at +350 (BU) 4.4.08
50 on Travis Lutter at +300 (BU) 4.11.08
Totals
UFC 83:
Credits Bet: 480
Possible Gain: 700
OVERALL WINNINGS (Or LOSSES): 0
Next week we will get our first chance to see what my actual winnings/losses are! We will also get to see the fallout/aftermath of UFC 83. As always we will look at the future Odds, hopefully the entire main card of UFC 84 and EliteXC will be showing up.
Also make sure to check out the 411 Mania Staff Picks for UFC 83!
