The Double Leg Breakdown: 04.19.2008: How Will Michael Bisping Fare at Middleweight?

Posted by Don Nguyen on 04.19.2008

Tonight, the UFC will inject the quickly thinning Middleweight division with some new blood in the form of a former Light Heavyweight Count from Britain. Will Michael Bisping ascend to Middleweight royalty, or will he not make the cut?

Welcome back to The Double Leg Breakdown! It was really great reading all of your comments last week and thanks again for keeping it intelligent and thoughtful. As you all probably know, tonight is the mega-event that is Serra vs. GSP II. I'm sure you have all read enough about this, so I won't bore you with another analysis of the headlining fight. But if we are lucky, tonight's card may answer another question that intrigues me and I'd like to explore.

HOW WILL MICHAEL BISPING FARE AT MIDDLEWEIGHT?



Tonight, we will see The Ultimate Fighter 3 winner Michael Bisping make his debut at Middleweight against TUF 4 competitor Charles McCarthy. Many have scoffed at the matchup of Bisping against "Captain Miserable." Frankly, I'm not sure if I would dismiss McCarthy so easily. Not because he has proven to be any kind of a factor at Middleweight, but after witnessing the abomination that was Swick vs Burkman, I'm not so sure that dropping weight is a good idea for all fighters.

There are some fighters who obviously stand to benefit from cutting weight. Joe Stevenson looked pretty small and soft at Welterweight and after watching Josh Neer smother him out, it was obvious that he didn't belong at Welterweight. Dropping to Lightweight turned out to be the decision of his career having been recently given a much deserved shot at the title in February. BJ Penn also has looked spectacular since making the move to Lightweight after two consecutive losses to elite Welterweights. Look at his abs! But both BJ and Joe both had weight to lose.

Swick was small at Middleweight to say the least, but he wasn't exactly pudgy. He looked lean and in shape at 185. He was a factor at Middleweight, but after suffering a demoralizing loss to Yushin Okami (during which he made note of Okami's remarkable strength to his corner), feeling overpowered, Swick made the decision to drop to 170.



At the weigh in for UFC Fight Night XII, he looked gaunt and unhealthy. In the fight the next day, he looked listless and less powerful than we have seen him at Middleweight. I have only seen him fight once at this weight, so I am not writing him off, but I do think that his last performance was without a doubt affected by the weight cut.

Similarly, Dan Henderson is a little undersized for Light Heavyweight but does not seem to perform as well at Middleweight. While he did win the 183 lbs Pride Grand Prix, he has also had a couple of lackluster performances there that resulted in losses that should not have been. In his second fight with Misaki, he looked slow and inaccurate. He was not the same Hendo we know and love who puts pressure on fighters. He was tentative. In his most recent bout at the weight class against Anderson Silva, he looked far less active when he had top position than he did in his bout against Rampage, a much larger fighter. Silva's guard is great, but Rampage is also a great wrestler and Hendo looked far more active and competitive in that fight than he did against Silva.

With the UFC's five weight classes and difference of up to 20 lbs between weight classes, there seems to be a twilight zone of weight that some fighters fall into where most fighters in the class outsize them, but the cut to the lower weight class can have a major impact to their game. Bisping I fear may fall into this zone. He looks lean and strong, though a bit undersized at Light Heavy.



With experience, fighters can learn to deal with the effects of cutting large amounts of weight, but I question whether or not he has the needed experience with weight cutting to be able to do it right. All of his pro MMA fights thus far have been at Light Heavy and there is not a very strong wrestling program in Britain like there is here in the States. This leads me to believe weight cutting is not a technique that Bisping is very familiar with.

Tonight will say a lot about how he will fare at Middleweight. I hope I am wrong about his size. I hope to see the same dynamic, accurate and technical striker tonight that won TUF 3. I think Bisping makes for a very interesting prospect in the Middleweight division and a potential contender to Anderson Silva's belt.

Of the potential UFC Middleweight contenders, while he will not be the most powerful striker, he will be the most versed and technical. His foot work is excellent and he is a smart fighter. Should he get a title shot, if Silva is still Champ, I think Bisping's style could potentially create problems for "The Spider."

Silva is very selective about his shots, but he is powerful and accurate, so when he connects, he does serious damage. This has worked for him so far, but could this also be a problem for him?

With few challengers to Silva's belt in the UFC, I could see the promotion giving Bisping a shot rather quickly. Should he win this fight against McCarthy, I think a fight against another rising Middleweight like Chris Leben or Patrick Cote would be on the horizon. Should he win that bout convincingly, could a title shot be next? Quite possibly. Frankly, who else is there?

My first instinct when I heard of the potential for a Silva-Bisping fight sometime down the line was to light a candle and to say a prayer for Michael Bisping. The funny thing is as I played out Silva vs. Bisping in my mind, I saw flashes of Liddell vs. Jardine. Like Liddell in his heyday, Silva is very selective with his shots, always looking for that knockout punch, kick, or knee. Bisping has excellent foot work and will be smart enough to stay on the outside with Silva and peppering away while picking his big shots carefully. His head movement and foot work are good enough that he may be able to stay out of danger and keep Silva from landing anything too damaging. In this fight, I could see him staying active enough to outpoint Silva and elusive enought to stay conscious and on his feet.

Bisping is an exciting and welcome addition to a quickly thinning middleweight division. He is an intriguing matchup for many middleweight fighters including Anderson Silva. I just hope it really is the right weight class for him.