The Weekly MMA CrapSHOOT 05.09.08: The Calm Before the Storm of UFC 84!

Posted by Fredrick Peterson on 05.09.2008

Another Card Shakeup on UFC 85! What happened to Chris Leben!?! UFC and WEC merging weight classes?!?

Happy Friday! Come on in relax and enjoy the latest version of the Weekly CrapSHOOT!

Sorry about the week hiatus but I spent a wonderful weekend down at the Kentucky Derby. The infield was every bit as crazy as I hoped with people passing out everywhere, topless girls, and overall drunkenness. The MMA summer extravaganza starts in two weeks and I hope everyone is excited as I am. We have UFC 84 on May 24th, Elite XC on May 31h, and then UFC 85 on June 7th! And that is just the beginning of the Summer that is MMA!




UFC 85 Takes Another Hit:

Wow I was really excited for this fight. I respect Chris Leben for turning himself in but damn he should have gotten this taken care of earlier. 35 days in jail is quite a bit, he must have had a bunch of prior offenses. By the time he got out he would only have 12 days to train which is not the way any fighter should enter the cage.

So where does the fight go from here? I can't think of any available middleweights to put against Bisping unless you pull someone from the undercard. Martin Kampmann and Nate Marquardt are both scheduled for the under card and could be used to replace Leben. Supposedly Joe Silva knew this was a possibility and had a back-up plan already in place. Hopefully it keeps the card almost as strong as if Leben was there.




UFC & WEC Merger?:

Lots of talks going around about the possible merger of the UFC and WEC or at least merging the larger divisions. Personally I think the complete merger of the two organizations would be a terrible idea. I love being able to watch a WEC event anytime there is a bit of a break between UFC events. Also WEC by far has the next best production (Camera work/commentating) out of any MMA organization.

Right now WEC puts an emphasis on the lower weight classes which put on some amazing fights. I would hate to have only one 145/135 fight every other pay-per-view make the main card. Obviously the title fights would be there but we would miss getting to see anyone else in action.

Only merging the larger classes is a possible option. I am still skeptical on some of the ideas though. Why should Brian Stann get a shot against Rampage over any of the other top fighters the UFC already has in the stacked Light Heavy division. I just don't see that being a money maker or a good fight period. If they merged all the duplicate divisions that would only leave the WEC with the 145 and 135 weight classes. Two weight classes can not make an organization. They could add a 125 division but I just don't see that many fighters (especially marketable American ones) that will be able to fill this out. If they are going to get rid of the larger divisions I would at least leave the lightweights and also consider added the 125.




TUF Has Been a Blast!:

For some reason I am really getting into this season of TUF. I am not sure if it is Rampage and Forrest or if the fights are better but I have been looking forward to every episode. I love how everyone in the house hated Jeremy May and all the Chuck Norris style jokes for Matt Brown.

Still the issue that freaks me out the most is Riddle's statement about most of the competitors being cut by the UFC at the end of the season. I always look forward to a few exciting fights on the finale against each other especially if there is any bad blood. I guess Dana knows best and hopefully the best of the bunch so far(Matt Brown, Tim, Jesse, and I wouldn't mind seeing "Chipper" again) will get their shot at the Finale or at least sometime in the future.


CRAPSHOOT:

Rules: Each week I will be looking at the odds on all the upcoming fights. I have 500 to spend on each event. I can spend under 500 but never more. Picks may be placed from either Bodog or BetUS odds. A pick can be locked in early for desirable odds. Once a pick is made it cannot be removed unless a fighter is pulled. A running Tally will be scored to keep track of all wins and losses.

Remember that odds are calculated off 100. A positive number indicates that 100 down would yield whatever the positive number is plus the hundred you spent. A negative number indicates the amount you would have to put down to win 100.

(BD = BoDog, BU = BetUS)


Very few changes on the betting fronts. All my points are already gone for UFC 84. Did I make the picks to early?


Odds for UFC 84, May 24th (Still nothing from BetUS)

Wanderlei Silva -160 (BD) -185 (BU)
Keith Jardine +130 (BD) +145 (BU)

Wish I would have waited on this one.

Lyoto Machida -200 (BD) -220 (BU)
Tito Ortiz +160 (BD) +175 (BU)

Wow nobody is giving Tito even a chance!

BJ Penn -225(BD) -230 (BU)
Sean Sherk +185(BD) +180 (BU)

I still like Sherk's odds. I think people just have a bias against him. To some its like betting on Tim Sylvia.


Early Odds for UFC 85, June 7th

Fabricio Werdum -110(BD)
Brandon Vera -120(BD)

Stays the same

Nate Marquardt -145(BD)
Thales Leites +115(BD)

I like Marquardt here for a reasonable price.


Early Odds for UFC 86, July 5th

Quinton Jackson -260(BD)
Forrest Griffin +200(BD)

Still thinking Forrest but there hasn't been any change.


Early Odds for UFC 87, Aug 9th

Brock Lesnar -295(BD)
Mark Coleman +235(BD)

Trap bet.


New Picks: None

We will hopefully have the EliteXC odds to mess with soon followed by UFC 85!

Previous Picks:

UFC 84:
Credits Bet: 500
Possible Gain: 600

200 on Lyoto Machida at -200 4.25.08
100 on Keith Jardine at +130 4.25.08
200 on Sean Sherk at +185 4.25.08



OVERALL WINNINGS (Or LOSSES): +50
UFC 83: +50 (losses on Serra & Lutter, win with Macdonald)


Only two more weeks till the Summer of MMA starts! Stay Tuned!

As Always The One FP