411MMA Fact or Fiction 05.14.08: Nick Diaz to Never Win a Major Title, Aoki the DREAM Lightweight Grand Prix Favorite, Affliction's MMA Promotion Doomed to Fail, More!

Posted by Bren Oliver on 05.14.2008

Will Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic ever again defeat a "Top 10" opponent? Will Nick Diaz's style cost him the opportunity to ever win a significant championship? Should Kimbo Slice be considered a bad role model? This week Matt McEwen takes a break from breaking down past UFC events to test his op-ed might against none other than the very author of this column! Will Bren Oliver use his editory might to destroy double-M? Read ahead and find out!

Greetings and slamutations! Thank you for once again taking a little time out of your day or night to spend some time in FoF-ville. If this is the first time you've wandered into this column, welcome to the best looking readership on the net! The newswire has been fairly busy as of late so there are plenty of topics from which to discuss, but before getting into them let me take a few seconds to introduce this week's guests. Also, look for former UFC/TUF competitor, and (possibly the) future IFL Heavyweight Champion, Brad Imes to step into "Fact or Fiction" Stadium next week for the UFC 84 Preview edition. It's always cool when an actual fighter offers his/her insight into the sport so make sure to check back here next Wednesday.

Focusing on this week, I'm pleased to be joined by a man I can only describe as Roger Ebert meets Bas Rutten. He's the author/reviewer of 411Mania's weekly "History of the UFC" feature, Matt McEwen. His opponent will be none other than the very individual typing these words - me! You can catch my "Punch Drunk Hangover" news report alongside Matt McEwen's masterpieces most Monday mornings. They're apparently MMM MMM good!

And now on to the meat and potatoes of "Fact or Fiction" - the topics! Fellow 411Mania columnist...are you ready? Then, America, with an enlarged heart and an empty skull, I say unto you the words of my Uncle...


ALLEZ FACT OR FICTION!!!!!!!


1. Of all the past few months' worth of UFC releases, the most surprising is last week's announcement of American Top Team's Din Thomas.


Matt McEwen: FICTION. While Thomas is probably the top of the release list as far as talent goes, I think the biggest surprise was Tommy Speer getting the axe. The guy has loads of potential and I thought they'd give him a chance to build on that in the UFC, but I guess not, though now it appears he's going to do so in the WEC. Hopefully Thomas can end up there too, as a match up with some of the top 145lbers will make for some good fights.


Bren Oliver: FICTION. While I am certainly a fan of Thomas', and feel he's a talented fighter, I was more shocked by Jake O'Brien's release and felt the UFC made a mistake in letting him go. The UFC's Heavyweight division is sorely lacking at the moment, whereas the organization is stacked at 155-pounds, so O'Brien's pink slip made less sense to me. Also, there was talk of Din wanting to drop to Featherweight prior to his release being made official, and obviously he can't compete at 145-pounds inside the Octagon. Back to O'Brien, he's a 24-year old Heavyweight with a 10-1 record, the singular defeat coming to former UFC Heavyweight Champion Andrei Arlovski. Eight of his wins came by way of TKO and seven of them came in the fight's first frame. How could the UFC not want him under contract?


SCORE: 1 for 1. Anthony Johnson should by default be considered the winner of the Ultimate Fighter VI considering Mac Danzig has dropped to 155-pounds and "Rumble" flattened Speer like a Chinese earthquake when the two of them squared off at Fight Night XIII. Er...maybe that was a bad simile to use? Excuse me whilst I burn in Hell...


2. As was recently alluded to by ESPN columnist LZ Granderson, Kimbo Slice is a poor role model for, and representative of, young black men.


Matt McEwen: FACT. First off, I'm uncomfortable agreeing with that statement, because I thought it was condescending and ill informed. That being said, a guy who is a bodyguard for a porn company and became famous by knocking out local tough guys in backyards and allies isn't exactly how you hope Junior turns out. I have a problem when you throw in the "young black men" aspect of the deal. Now, all that negativity being said, I've been impressed with the way Slice has taken to MMA and the respect he's shown the sport. Beyond that, he comes across as an intelligent and well spoken man in his interviews, and that's something I can't say for a lot of the "role models" out there.


Bren Oliver: FICTION. Granderson's column was borderline offensive and his assertions about Slice were absolutely ridiculous. LZ's lazy reporting gave the impression he actually knew very little about the big bad bald bearded man's life or reputation. Instead of indicting him, I choose to see Slice for the hard-worker, and kind man, he is rumored to be in his daily life; the individual who grew up poor, went to college, and has now established himself as a bizarre role-model of sorts. Was his path a savory one? No, of course not. However, Kimbo went to Miami University on an academic scholarship, and , while he may not have graduated "The U", the fact he went says something in itself and history is riddled with successful, bright men who never walked the collegiate stage and picked up a diploma. He has never spent a day in jail as far as I know. Are these not things young males of any race should aspire to achieve? I have a few friends who would certainly love to turn back the clock and avoid a stint in jail or pick up some college credits.

And, while I am not a fan of his YouTube portfolio, I am realistic enough to understand a few things about the street fighting clips which differentiate them from your standard slugfest between jackasses at a club, bar, concert, party, etc.. They involve grown men in one-vs-one situations who have agreed to fight for a cash prize. Each can stop the fight and give up, while each is also supported by his friends who also are able to end the brutal contest and maintain the situation remains a fair one. Weapons are never used and there are some basic established rules. Again, I'm not condoning the behavior, but I'm also not wearing rose-colored contact lenses. Another point Granderson failed to mention in the misguided piece was the fact there were men of every race facing off against Kimbo. Violence, and on a more elemental level, hand-to-hand combat, has been a fundamental aspect of the human race since the dawn of time.


SCORE: 1 for 2. If it isn't already clear, Granderson's terminology involved labeling Slice as a poor role model, and it clearly isn't an opinion I share with him. He also used some other words my white guilt would never let me toss out in a column.


3. The Affliction MMA promotion's future seems in doubt if having to shift venues, having their clothing line banned on EliteXC/UFC shows, and being without an official card less than three months out from their scheduled debut, is any indication of their long term prospects.


Matt McEwen: FACT. I can't see them putting on more than two or three shows before they realize they're losing the shirt off their back (that was punny). The first show (which has sured up the card a bit more since this question was posed) will probably be pretty good, but beyond that, what do they do? Excuse me if I don't have faith in a T-shirt company running a sporting operation, no matter how nice some of their shirts may be.


Bren Oliver: FACT. It's a strange feeling to sense impending doom for a promotion that has yet to put on a live event, but there's a YAMMA-esque twinge in the pit of my belly when it comes to Affliction's MMA future...or maybe that's just the cheese enchiladas I had for lunch?!? I am not too concerned about the shift from Dallas to Anaheim (other than for personal, proximity-related reasons) or the partially finished card. The ban on their clothing, however, does concern me as the primary reason any Average Joe owns an Affliction T-Shirt is a result of him first seeing the item being worn by a UFC fighter. A lack of exposure is almost certainly going to lead to a decrease in sales, especially when there are fifty other clothing labels, none of which is running a competitive MMA promotion, ready to jump on board and fill the skull-and-wings void.

My other two areas of concern pertaining to Affliction's long term future both pertain to the talent expected to compete on July 19th. First, I would wager the company will set a record for fighter salary based on the paychecks drawn by Fedor Emelianenko, Tim Sylvia, Matt Lindland, "Babalu" Sobral, Ben Rothwell, Andrei Arlovski, Paul Buentello, Aleks Emelianenko, and every other Mixed Martial Artist stepping into the ring/cage at "Affliction: Banned". It's going to result in a ridiculous figure that's further inflated by the cost of production, rental, insurance, and every other fee associated with putting on a major event. Secondly, I feel a company's future depends on its ability to create stars; to take young, talented, marketable fighters and turn them in the next big thing, though one signed to a smaller paycheck. Based on the known card, I don't see an attempt to do such a thing. There are a ton of future stars out there who aren't under UFC contract, and Affliction's decision to invest the bulk of their money in veterans was not a wise decision as far as I'm concerned.




SCORE: 2 for 3. Now now, am I the only one who remembers the epic success that was "Zooba Pants: Color Explosion '88"?


---SWITCH!!!---


4. Shinya Aoki should be considered the favorite to win the DREAM Lightweight Grand Prix.


Bren Oliver: FICTION. To be honest, this started as a "fact" but made its way to "fiction" by 6:00 in the morning on Sunday, May 11th. The primary reason? Eddie Alvarez's performance against Joachim Hansen. On top of that, Aoki will be coming off an injury to his face and two physically grueling clashes with Calvancante when he faces Nagata at DREAM 4, and while I don't expect the rainbow-tighted warrior to falter against his fellow Japanese fighter, it won't be a cakewalk and will also give him less time to prepare for the Lightweight Semi-Finals than any other man in the competition. If Aoki is the favorite, it's only slightly, but there are too many talented individuals left in the tournament for me to say he's most likely to take home the final prize.


Matt McEwen: FACT. I'd love to go with "Probably" or "I guess so," but since those aren't options in this, I'll Fact. He's going to have his hands full dealing with Eddie Alvarez though. Of course, this all assumes that DREAM survives long enough to actually finish the Grand Prix.


SCORE: 2 for 4. Here's hoping none of us wakes up from this DREAM anytime soon!


5. It is doubtful Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic will ever again defeat a "Top 10" Heavyweight fighter.


Bren Oliver: FACT. I'm not even sure he'll ever face another "Top 10" fighter though the door is certainly open given the large number of elite Heavyweights outside of the UFC (Ben Rothwell, the Emelianenko brothers, Josh Barnett, Tim Sylvia, etc). Mirko's post-Octagon career first included a stop against the vastly overmatched Tatsuya Mizuno at DREAM 1 and he's now lined up to fight a great kickboxer, but average Mixed Martial Artist, in the form of Jerome Lebanner later this year. Perhaps he's just "learning to win" again, perhaps DREAM is simply showcasing "Cro Cop" for the Japanese fans. Either way, the situation doesn't lend confidence to the notion of Filipovic stepping in the ring against top competition any time soon. Also, keep in mind Mirko has aspirations outside of MMA and is nearing his mid-thirties. It's very possible he'll hang up his gloves and focus on his work in Croatia in the next few years.


Matt McEwenL FICTION. There are two major factors in favor of Cro Cop stepping in the ring with a top level heavyweight eventually - 1) The influx of high end talent outside of the UFC and 2)Dana White's assertion that the door is open for Cro Cop to return to the UFC if he gets back on track. I'm not about to throw in the towel on a guy who was widely considered the second best heavyweight in the world for the better part of 5 years just on the basis on two losses. Add in the fact that he still has that nasty head kick, and he's just one kick away from beating anyone, anytime.


SCORE: 2 for 5.


6. Nick Diaz's reckless style of fighting will likely prevent him from ever becoming a world champion.


Bren Oliver: FICTION. With Diaz's involvement in EliteXC, and ability to fluctuate between Lightweight and Welterweight, makes me think he'll have a number of opportunities to latch a meaningful title around his waist. I could see his Grinch-like scowl curl upwards after eventually winning a belt in DREAM, Strikeforce, or EliteXC. Sure, the UFC claims to have the universe's best fighters and the only important championships, but I feel any knowledgeable MMA fan understands there are scores of world class competitors who don't happen to throw down inside the Octagon.

Also, as far as his style of fighting, it appeared his surgery to correct his issues pertaining to facial cuts was a success based on the lack of apparent damage it sustained from Inoue's assault at DREAM 3, so it seems possible Diaz may no longer be burdened by such a high risk of losing a bout due to a doctor's stoppage.


Matt McEwen: FICTION. It'll keep him from holding a title for any length of time or from having an overly long career, but I don't think his fighting style will stop him from being a world champion. I'm not saying that he will be a champion, but I'd say his fighting style will be a big reason he does, if he does. Of course, you could get even more semantical about this one and say that there's no chance of Diaz going back to the UFC anytime soon, and outside of the UFC, is there any promotion you'd actually say has "World" titles right now?


SCORE: 3 for 6.


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Join us next week when two more participants take a pre-event look at UFC 84, break down Eddie Alvarez's placement in the rankings, and discuss other lingering issues in the Mixed Martial Arts world...