The Double Leg Breakdown 05.20.08: Oddsmakers Have Penn As Heavy Favorite At UFC 84

Posted by Don Nguyen on 05.20.2008

Sean Sherk fans and experts alike seem to give Sherk a nearly even chance to win his fight against BJ Penn but oddsmakers see it differently seeing Penn as the heavy favorite going into the fight. Upon closer inspection, perhaps this matchup is not as even as it appears on the surface.

Well, it is finally here: possibly the most anticipated matchup of the year, and certainly the most anticipated Lightweight matchup in recent memory. This weekend we will see BJ Penn defend his title against the former UFC Lightweight Champion Sean Sherk. Many if not most within the MMA community are calling this an almost even matchup but bookmakers have the odds on this bout at -265 Penn and +215 Sherk. I believe this means that oddsmakers are giving Penn roughly between 70 - 80% chance to win this fight. I'm a betting man myself, so typically, I look for cracks in the armor of the oddsmakers' reasoning, but frankly, after looking at this matchup more closely, it's hard to argue against these odds. I am finding it hard to find any way for Sherk to win this bout.

UFC 84 IS PENN'S FIGHT TO LOSE

UFC 84 comes at the heels of an increasingly heated fued between Sherk and Penn. Both men are supremely confident in victory and both have legions of fans battling it out on MMA forums in the favor of each fighter respectively.


Defending UFC Lightweight Champion, BJ Penn

When I first played this matchup out in my mind, the outcome was murky. Penn being known for his brilliant Brazilian Jiu Jitsu (a.k.a. Brazilliant Jiu Jitsu), and Sherk being known for his cardio and his excellent wrestling, I pictured much of this bout happening on the ground with Penn on his back and Sherk in his guard, much like Sherk's fight with Hermes Franca. While I didn't see the fight being as one sided as Sherk-Franca, I also didn't see Penn submitting Sherk from his guard.

BJ Penn's expert BJJ is well documented. However, despite his yogi-like flexibility, Penn has not utilized his excellent rubber guard very effectively in MMA. Most of his submission victories have been achieved after he has achieved back control, not from his guard. We have seen Matt Hughes survive in BJ's guard, albeit barely. I think Sherk would pose an even greater threat to BJ in his guard than Hughes did.


Penn is a monster when he has a fighter's back

If the fight were to end up in this position, Penn would be hard pressed to pull off a submission would struggle sweeping Sherk. Sherk's limbs are too short and strong and his neck too thick and muscular for him to be in danger of being submitted by Penn in his guard. He is built like a crocodile. Sherk has never been submitted before in his career as a fighter and this is no coincidence. I could see BJ sweeping Sherk but not without a ton of effort. Sherk was only swept for the first time in his MMA career in his bout with Hermes Franca. BJ could definitely do it, but expending that kind of energy could really be a drain on Penn's already suspect gas tank.

In this scenario, I could see Sherk peppering away to a decision victory provided he could keep the fight in this position for the duration of 5 rounds. This seems to be the reasoning as to why many fans in the MMA forums are calling the fight for Sherk. The only problem with this theory is that it assumes Penn will let the fight get to this position at all.

Sherk has shown he has excellent takedowns, but his size has proven to be a problem for him at times. In his bout against Georges St. Pierre, GSP easily stuffed his takedown attempts. St. Pierre barely needed to sprawl at all and his legs were out of Sherk's reach. Penn is about as tall as GSP and has near legendary takedown defense after spending nearly the entire first round of his last fight with Matt Hughes hopping around on one leg and nearly ending up in a splitz. While I think St. Pierre's approach to defending takedowns is more practical (nothing beats a good solid sprawl), Penn has done more than enough in his bouts against Hughes and St. Pierre to convince me that he will be able to keep this fight against Sherk standing should he choose to.

I think a good game plan for Penn would be to keep this fight on his feet for as long as he can. Sherk's boxing is excellent and crisp, but the problem with this aspect of his game is that while his striking is fast and accurate, he lacks any kind of power behind his punches and his reach is also very short. BJ Penn stands at 5' 9" and outreaches Sherk substantially. By keeping the fight standing, BJ could conserve some of his energy for the possibility that the fight go into later rounds. He would more than likely get the better of the exchanges. Penn's striking, while not as polished as Sherk's, is extremely effective and accurate, and Penn has shown on more than one occasion to have real knockout power. I think standing, Sherk would not have a chance against Penn. I could see Penn stunning him early on in the fight and following him to the ground where he would finish him off with strikes.

Penn, though, has already publicly discussed his game plan. If he sticks to his word, expect to see Penn initiating the takedown himself and working to punish Sherk on the ground. I think this is also a solid game plan. Sherk's takedowns are the stuff of legend, but his takedown defense has yet to be tested really. BJ Penn's wrestling is severely underrated and very unconventional; not exactly the kind of wrestling that is easy to train for. I'm still a little mystified as to how he took Hughes down at UFC 46; it looks like he just kind of twirled him around then all of a sudden Hughes is on his back. How he intends to get Sherk to the ground is unknown; I definitely don't see him shooting for a double leg or doing a hip toss a la GSP. What I do know is that if he can get Sherk to the ground and maintain top control, Penn's wrestling is right up there with the best from this position, so Sherk will be in trouble. His balance and wrestling composure was palpable in his bout with Joe Stevenson who is one of the top wrestlers in the Lightweight division himself. He showed excellent ability to keep a fighter on their back during that fight. Sherk has few defenses for a fighter in his guard as his short limbs and poor flexibility eliminate most possible submissions. He is good at minizing damage while on his back and exhibited excellent escape ability in his fight with GSP, but escaping will just leave him in the same pickle of being out-boxed by Penn.

Ultimately, I think this fight will be decided with the takedown. Will Sherk execute a double leg takedown on BJ Penn like a knife through butter and make me eat my words? Or will BJ shock the Shark and put him on his back? Time will tell. But from what we have seen of both fighters so far, I think BJ Penn is a safe bet to win this fight.