411's UFC 84 Roundtable Preview: Part Two

Posted by Randy Harrison on 05.23.2008

The main card portion of UFC 84 goes under the 411mania microscope, featuring a Light Heavyweight bonanza and the culmination of the feud between BJ Penn and Sean Sherk with Lightweight gold on the line!!



The Roundtable Preview too big for one column rolls on, as the staff turns their attention to the main card fights for UFC 84: Ill Will!!

Remember to check out PART ONE if you haven't already!


UFC 84 Roundtable Preview: Main Card Fights

Thiago Silva vs. Antonio Mendes


Dustin James: Thiago Silva is a dangerous dude who is VERY underrated in the MMA world. He is the one who originally stopped the "train" that was known as Houston Alexander. Yet the guy getting most of the credit for stopping Alexander is James Irvin....a guy who Silva has already beat. This fight was originally suppose to be Rashad Evans vs. Thiago Silva. But since Shogun got injured and was removed from UFC 85, Evans took Shogun's place. Now Silva gets a different opponent in Antonio Mendes. Mendes is making his UFC debut and is currently on a 11 fight win streak and hasn't lost since 2004. This could be a very tough match-up for the undefeated Silva. I have a feeling deep down in my gut that this could be the fight of the night and is definetely one that is hard to pick a winner.
Winner: Thiago Silva, TKO, Round 3

Matt McEwen: Welcome to the big time, Antonio Mendes. This card is really an example of the retarded amount of depth in the 205lb division right now, and Silva is probably the crown jewel of the up and coming fighters. With that in mind, Mendes has been placed in this fight as the sacrificial lamb. He's a predominantly stand up based fighter, and if you saw what Silva did to the legend of Houston Alexander, then you should be able to envision what happens here.
Winner: Thiago Silva, TKO, Round 1

Adam Tool: Here's another reason I'm so pumped for this event: Thiago Silva. In my news report last week I called him the future of the light heavyweight division. Mendes is certainly no can, as the guy hasn't lost in over four years. However Thiago has never lost, and I don't see him doing so in this fight.
Winner: Thiago Silva, TKO, Rd. 1

John Curry: Hello Thiago Silva, this is Dana White calling. If you win this fight I can see a title shot in your immediate future. That is what is at stake for the underappreciated fighter. Unfortunately his fight with Mendes is not a given win. Mendes is a tough fighter himself and as many of my colleagues have said, this could very well be the fight of the night.
Winner: Thiago Silva, Decision

Justin Thomas: Another UFC debut here tonight. Antonio replaced Rashad Evans, who was the original Silva's opponent. Mendes' strength, as I understand, is Muay-Thai, but I haven't seen any of his fights. He's riding on an 11 fight winning streak. Thiago Silva is 12-0 and he's a well rounded fighter, with BJJ and Muay-Thai skills. This fight could go either way, but once again, I'll give the edge to the UFC veteran here. Thiago looked real dominant in his UFC bouts and I'd love to see a striking war from these two guys.
Winner: Thiago Silva, TKO, Round 2

Morgan Marx: I wonder if Silva wishes he were facing Rashad Evans? If Silva destroys Mendes, he simply lives up to expectations and takes out a debuting fighter. If he slips up, Silva's momentum is broken and he slips back down the crowded 205 rankings. Mendes has a decent record, but Silva has grown as a fighter in each UFC appearance. I don't think this one will last too long.
Winner: Thiago Silva, TKO, Round 1

Jeremy Lambert: Shame that Rashad Evans is no longer fighting Silva. The only way I see Silva losing this fight is if he falls into the Keith Jardine trap and gets lazy but I think he's better than that. Silva is my pick to win the UFC Light Heavyweight title sometime in his career so he's obviously got to win this fight. I think this will be a fun technical fight on the fight with Silva's skills and experience winning it out.
Winner: Thiago Silva, TKO, Round 1

Fredrick Peterson: The fight between undefeated fighters Silva/Evans would have been preferred but it will be nice to see Silva on the main card. After this fight Silva will get a Co-Headlining fight with another contender and hopefully set up a title shot for the winner. I hope he isn't overlooking Mendes like I have.
Winner: Thiago Silva, TKO, Round 1

Larry Csonka: Silva is rolling large at 12-0 right now, and I just can't see Mendes being the one to stop him. We should see a lot of throwing and hopefully a spectacular KO.
Winner: Thiago Silva, Strikes, RD2

Bren Oliver: I know very little about Mendes, but looking at his record it seems fairly clear he is no geek off the street. While the names involved aren't necessarily impressive, "Samuray" has racked up a very nice eleven-fight win streak. Unfortunately for him, Thiago Silva does not only have a better series of consecutive wins, but also happens to be the superb fighter and a very likely candidate to end Mendes' streak. While Silva has finished his three UFC appearances via TKO, and has won seven straight in a similar manner, he also happens to be a BJJ blackbelt. For some reason I get the feeling he's going to finally unveil his submission arsenal at UFC 84, but then again I won't be too surprised if Silva ends up leaving Mendes staring up at the lights after a punch or three.
Winner: Thiago Silva, Submission, RD 1

Randy Harrison: Thiago Silva is an animal and could be one or two fights away from getting himself into title contention. Mendes is just another victim really.
Winner: Thiago Silva, TKO, Round 1



Tito Ortiz vs. Lyoto Machida


Dustin James: Is this Tito's last run in the UFC? With the latest comments from UFC president Dana White, I would say......yes. It's pretty clear to me that Dana White doesn't care one way or another if Tito loses. Some people are saying that the UFC/Tito feud is a work. I don't buy that one bit. White and Tito have always had animosity towards each other, now it's just gotten worse and in Dana's mind, Tito is not the name he once was. The UFC is hoping and PRAYING for a quick Machida victory. Why? For one, so they can say "See, Ortiz is washed up". And two, because they would love to have Machida face the winner of the upcoming Griffin/Rampage fight. The future of the UFC's light heavyweight division could be impacted by the result of this fight. I personally can't wait for Tito's speech after the fight!
Winner: Lyoto Machida, Decision

Matt McEwen: The past vs the future. That's essentially what this fight comes down to. Ortiz was once the top star in the sport, and often spoken of as one of the top all around fighters in the sport. Time and style have passed Ortiz by though, and now he seems more and more one dimensional every time he fights. Machida on the other hand is scary good right now. He's been scary - but unexciting - good for a while, but it looks like he listened to the advice that he be more exciting, and now he's just plain scary. Everyone he's fought has looked bad, and his skills in every dimension of the game continue to improve. It's going to be a long night for Tito, and he'll probably be glad to be leaving this level of competition behind when he leaves the UFC. Machida on the other hand, will have his eyes glued to this season of TUF and the Griffin/Jacksons showdown to see who his next opponent should be.
Winner: Machida, Unanimous Decision

Adam Tool: It all comes down to this. After nine years and 18 fights, the Tito Ortiz story in the UFC comes to a close. The question is, how will it end? Will he go out on top by handing the rising star Machida his first loss? Or will Dana White get his wish to see Tito get his ass kicked? When it comes time to pick a winner, I have to go with Lyoto. Over and over again we've seen Machida frustrate his opponents with his style of fighting. He is just now starting to reach the high point of his career, while Ortiz's time has long since passed. So long Tito, don't let the cage door hit you in the ass on your way out.
Winner: Lyoto Machida, Decision

John Curry: Here is the fight I am really looking for. I am going against the grain here and saying that I personally like Ortiz. I don't care who you are this sport is a business, a tough one. Ortiz has turned his image into a multimillion dollar corporation and Dana White and the UFC have benefitted greatly from it. Ortiz and Dana go a long way back (Dana was Ortiz's manager when he started) and while people think this animosity is a work it isn't. I think White and Silva's mentality is to stick him with the fighter who will expose him with his tricky fighting style, Machida. While I really am not a fan of Machida because I do not find him exciting, he does get the job done. However with this one I think there is nothing Ortiz would rather do than win this fight and ruin White's plans to send him out the cage with a loss and screw up the win streak of Machida.
Winner: Tito Ortiz, Submission, Round 3

Justin Thomas:Actually, Lyoto is the third undefeated fighter on the main card. Machida is known for making other fighters look bad and for his boring, but effective, style of fighting. He holds victories over BJ Penn, Rich Franklin, Sokoudjou, Nakamura and others. We have yet to see how good he really is, but so far his MMA career has been impressive, even though he achieved most of his wins by decision. Ortiz, is of course the legendary UFC fighter, who once was the dominant UFC Light Heavyweight Champion, but after he lost to Couture and Liddell, he stopped looking so dominant against younger fighters and achieved most of his victories by decision. Maybe Tito left all of his glorious days behind, maybe he never was so good. Well, Dana White could care less. He wants Tito to draw some more buys, lose and be made to look bad. But it is really hard to tell who's going to win. Ortiz, despite not looking very good nowadays, still managed to defeat Forrest Griffin, Patrick Cote, Vitor Belfort and didn't win against Rashad Evans just because the referee took away a point from Tito. I've never seen Machida in any danger in a fight and I don't see Tito pounding out him. This bout will go to decision, folks. In my opinion, Lyoto has both - better striking and a better ground game, and he should win via unanimous decision. But I really doubt this victory would put him straight into #1 contender's slot, because there are still some other fighters like Wanderlei/Keith, Chuck, Evans and I'd like to see any one of those fighters be matched up against Machida.
Winner: Lyoto Machida, Decision

Morgan Marx: We all know the story line. Machida has never faced a dominant wrestler like Tito. He's strong and physically large, and Ortiz is content to sit in guard and rain down punishment. So long as Tito avoids the stand up game of Machida, it's his fight to win via grinding decision. The only big question is Machida's BJJ game off his back. Tito hasn't faced many blackbelts that could submit him from the guard (no offense to Guy Mezger). Ortiz matches up well versus strikers not named Chuck. Can Machida sweep Ortiz, and place the wrestler on his back? Can Machida lock in a kimura or guillotine on the bigger man? I doubt it, but it's always a possibility.
Winner: Tito Ortiz, Decision

Jeremy Lambert: Machida is great but he's never fought a wrestler the caliber of Tito Ortiz. If Machida can stop the takedown then obviously he holds a distinct advantage on the feet but Tito can usually takedown anyone when he really wants to and he's on his game. He claims to be 100% healthy for this fight so if he loses, he has no excuses. I'll say that Ortiz is able to get the takedown constantly during the fight, deliver some punishment from inside the guard, and ride out a decision victory. I just hope he's allowed to speak after the fight, win or lose.
Winner: Tito Ortiz, Decision

Fredrick Peterson: I see Tito getting extremely frustrated in this fight. His stand-up does not match up will with Machida. While "the Dragon" may get taken down a few times it is unlikely that Ortiz will be able to do any significant damage. I think with Machida's more aggressive attitude he will push the pace of the fight and win all the rounds. Sorry Ortiz but your last fight in the UFC will be a loss.
Winner: Lyoto Machida, Decision

Larry Csonka: Tome this is the most interesting fight on the show. If Tito can win he stops all of the momentum of Machida, who is 12-0 and looking for the title. If Tito wins he screws up the UFC's plans for Machida and promises himself a HUGE payday from someone, likely Elite XC. But if Machida takes the win, he should almost certainly earn a title shot from it. It is huge for both men for different reasons. Is Tito REALLY motivated and ready? I would like to think so.
Winner: Tito Ortiz, Decision

Bren Oliver: Sure, the easy pick is Machida by decision, but I have this strange feeling he may end up catching Tito in a choke and tapping him out. Sadly though, if Machida is in fact able to beat Ortiz, his career-defining win will be overshadowed by the war of words between Dana White and "The Huntington Beach Bad Boy". It goes to show the premium the UFC puts on the "entertainment" aspect of their product, as well as the enormous heads of both involved individuals.
Winner: Lyoto Machida, Submission, RD 3

Randy Harrison: Tito Ortiz's last fight in the Octagon for quite some time if we're to believe all of the hype leading into the show, and he's got a doozy on his plate. Ortiz is going to be supremely motivated for this fight, but then again, he was supremely motivated for his fights against Chuck Liddell too, so that's worth about as much as a cup of coffee. Machida is quicker, a better striker, and is dangerous off of his back in the jiu-jitsu game. This one is going to be a grind because Ortiz is tough as nails, but he's just not good enough anymore to face someone with the multi-faceted skills of a man like Machida.
Winner: Lyoto Machida, Decision



Wilson Gouveia vs. Goran Reljic


Dustin James: Some people may not know this, but this is a pretty important fight for the UFC's light heavyweight division. Gouveia is currently on a 4 fight win streak and is being name dropped as a potential challenger to the UFC light heavyweight title in the future. However, he needs to keep his momentum going if he wants to remain a hot name in possibly the UFC's most stacked division. His opponent is making his UFC debut and it's a huge one for the UFC as they are hoping Reljic can bring some Croatian fans over. Reljic is 7-0 as a pro and has finished every single fight except his last one. He has dangerous submission skills, but Gouveia's aren't horrible either. This has the potential to be a great fight and could open Reljic's eyes up to the rest of the MMA world. By the way, Wilson Gouveia was the last guy to defeat Jon Fitch.
Winner: Goran Reljic, Decision

Matt McEwen: This one has action fight written all over it. By all accounts Reljic is an explosive fighter, and Gouveia is more than obliging in putting on a battle. The breakdown of the fight should be simple, if a bit vague - one guy will survive the early barrage, take the advantage, and finish the fight with a nice submission. I'll say the veteran gets the better of it, as Reljic gets hit with a case of cagefright.
Winner: Gouveia, Submission, Round 2

Adam Tool: This is a tough one to pick. Both guys are experts in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. Gouveia has shown flashes of brilliance in the past, but he also looked very mediocre in his loss to Keith Jardine. I have not seen Reljic compete before, but he is undefeated in seven fights. Unless Reljic succumbs to the octagon-debut-jitters, I like him to pull off a win here.
Winner: Goran Reljic, TKO, Rd. 2

John Curry: I really don't have a lot to say about this fight. I don't think Gouveia is as good as people say he is. I look for this fight to go either way. Truthfully, I don't care about this fight and I can think of two fights that are on this card that are most likely not going to be seen that I would rather see than this fight.
Winner: Goran Reljic, Submission , Round 3

Justin Thomas: Wilson is 4-1 in the UFC and is a very well-rounded fighter. He has a BJJ black belt, but he also showed his striking skills by KO'ing Jason Lambert in his last fight. Reljic is also very good on the ground and is undefeated, but he hasn't faced tough competition yet and he is making his UFC debut. I think that Goran has a lot of potential, but this is a bad match-up for him, because Gouveia won't get submitted and Wilson should have a striking advantage. Plus, he has more octagon experience and I see him winning the fight by either KO or by Judges' decision. Because this card, in my opinion, will be filled with decisions, I'll go with KO. However, I won't be too surprised if Goran pulls off an upset.
Winner: Wilson Gouveia, KO, Round 2

Morgan Marx: Congrats to Gouveia for knocking out Jason Lambert with a perfectly flush punch to the jaw. I don't think lightening will strike twice against Reljic. Gouveia has questionable cardio and makes far too many mistakes for my liking. Add in Gouveia's claim that he hasn't scouted Reljic at all, and you've got a recipe for disaster. In his defense, Gouveia has never been submitted and this is a big step up for Reljic. But I like the bigger, fitter Croatian.
Winner: Goran Reljic, Decision

Jeremy Lambert: I'm really excited for the debut of Goran Reljic but I find this to be a bad match up for him. Reljic's strength is on the ground but Gouveia can handle his own on the ground and he showed in the fight against Lambert that he has KO power. If Reljic can win this fight then I see big things in his future but I just don't like the match up.
Winner: Wilson Gouveia, Decision

Fredrick Peterson: Not really sure why this fight made the main card over Sokoudjou/Nakamura but it still should be very good none-the-less. With the always crowded Light Heavyweight division you must win every fight to stay relevant in the title picture. Wilson is likely only two wins away from making a title shot a reality. A debut on the main card against a veteran is always hard; and I think I am going to have to go with the veteran again.
Winner: Wilson Gouveia, Decision

Larry Csonka: Gouveia is riding a 4-fight winning streak, all in the UFC, with his last loss to Jardine at the Ultimate Fighter III finale. A win here could get him a rematch with Jardine and that fight could get us another title contender.
Winner: Wilson Gouveia, Sub, RD1

Bren Oliver: While Gouveia is the more-known fighter, primarily due to his 4-1 record inside the Octagon, I believe Reljic's skills are fairly similar and I see him having success inside the UFC's eight-sided cage. However, making your debut on the televised portion of a PPV against a man of Gouveia's talent is quite a hefty load to carry. I see the bout going back and forth, and likely even coming down to a split decision, but I feel Gouveia will have a slight edge due to his experience and his training with American Top Team.
Winner: Wilson Gouveia, Judges' Decision

Randy Harrison: Gouveia is coming off of arguably the biggest win of his career and he's got a lot more experience, both in general and in the Octagon. Reljic is making his UFC debut and to do so on the main card means that they see something in you. That will either be the motivator that pushes Reljic to victory, or the straw that breaks the camel's back and causes him to crack under the pressure. Reljic is Croatian and he's undoubtedly seen a TON of shit go down, so the pressure of fighting in the UFC is going to be nothing for him. He's a submission guy so look for him to get one in the middle portion of the fight.
Winner: Goran Reljic, Submission, Round 2



Wanderlei Silva vs. Keith Jardine


Dustin James: I have heard rumors that this is a must win fight for Wanderlei Silva if he wants to remain in the UFC, and I don't buy that at all. However, with the UFC's new philosophy of "win or get fired", those rumors may be true. Jardine' position in the UFC's light heavyweight division is confusing. He holds victories over Chuck Liddell, Forrest Griffin, and Wilson Gouveia. However, he has losses against Stephan Bonnar and Houston Alexander that haunt him. If it wasn't for that loss against Alexander, it might be Jardine coaching on the Ultimate Fighter and fighting Rampage in July. But that's not the case. Now Jardine gets to fight a true MMA legend in Wanderlei Silva! Needless to say this is a must win fight for Silva as he has lost his last 3 fights. This will be a true "stand up and bang" fight which could resemble Silva's war with Liddell at UFC 79, and Jardine's war with Liddell at UFC 76. Get ready for some leather to be thrown.
Winner: Wanderlei Silva, TKO, Round 3

Matt McEwen: So, Jardine beat Liddell, who in turn beat Silva. So, MMAth says that Jardine should beat Silva. Not so fast though, as real fighting rarely works that way. Jardine has shown a susceptibility to aggressive punchers with power, but he also has a brain in that ugly head of his. He knows that Silva will come out flying, so I'd expect him to try and take the fight down early to set and control the pace. Silva will be hyper motivated to avoid his fourth straight loss, but I think he's going to get sent back to the drawing board one more time.
Winner: Keith Jardine, Decision

Adam Tool: This is easily one of the most anticipated fights of the night. Jardine is riding high right now, following the biggest win of his career over Chuck Liddell. Meanwhile you have Wanderlei Silva, who hasn't won in almost two years. If Jardine wins he'll have beaten two of the most dominant light heavyweights in history. If Silva wins he'll finally break his losing streak and show that he can still compete in the modern era. Both fighters want to win, but Silva needs to win.
Winner: Wanderlei Silva, TKO, Rd. 3

John Curry: There is nothing Silva would rather do than win this fight just to reestablish himself and prevent his 4th straight loss. Unfortunately, I see Jardine as just hitting his stride and looking to earn his shot at the winner of Rampage/Forrest. I think this will be a slow technical fight with it coming down to the judges cards.
Winner: Keith Jardine, Decision

Justin Thomas: Wanderlei Silva is currently on a 3 fight losing streak and needs to win badly. He is an aggressive striker and likes to put on exciting fights, but that might lead to him losing here. Silva just doesn't look like a smart fighter. He has a BJJ black belt and could use his ground skills a lot more, but he refuses to, because that is not what he considers to be exciting and basically uses these skills for defense only. I was surprised that Wanderlei didn't try to use his leg kicks or knees more in the Liddell fight. Everyone loves striking wars, but if Silva won't implement any gameplans into his fights, he won't win. MMA is evolving and even the most talented fighters need strategies to win fights. Keith is a smart fighter and he needs to avoid trading punches with Wanderlei and especially don't let Silva get inside, unless he's very confident in his abilities (he was confident when he faced Houston, wasn't he?). I see Jardine winning the bout via decision. Silva would then drop down to middleweight and try to stay in the UFC with victories there. And Keith could be the new #1 contender, especially if Forrest wins against Jackson.
Winner: Keith Jardine, Decision

Morgan Marx: I went with my heart in picking Wanderlei to defeat Chuck Liddell, overlooking the size, reach, and skill set advantage Liddell possessed. This time out, I see Keith Jardine playing the role of spoiler and forcing Silva to reevaluate his career. Jardine has arguably the best camp in MMA and I can't help but think they've developed a gameplan to take advantage of Silva's weaknesses. While the Houston Alexander fight may have revealed the clinch as a possible weakness for Jardine, I don't think this will be a replay of that fight. Jardine is tall and should defend against Silva's Thai knees, and he'll be expecting it if Silva should get inside. It should be a more competitive fight than Liddell v. Jardine, but I don't think that helps Silva.
Winner: Keith Jardine, KO, Round 2

Jeremy Lambert: I am so hyped for this fight. I think Keith Jardine posses a lot of the same skills and advantages that Chuck Liddell had against Silva and we all saw how that fight turned out. I think to beat Jardine, you have to be aggressive and get inside on him. That's what I see Silva doing. He couldn't do it in the Chuck fight but Chuck is very underrated in the clinch. For the first time in the Zuffa UFC, we get to see Wanderlei and his knees to the face. "It's a knockout everytime."
Winner: Wanderlei Silva, TKO, Round 2

Fredrick Peterson: WOW, four Light-Heavyweight fights on one televised card! I can't remember even having three fights from the same weight class on a televised portion. With The Light-Heavyweight title being decided in July each of these fights will be very important in choosing the next few contenders (hopefully we won't have to wait another 9 months for the title to be defended again). Wanderlei is always an exciting fighter and brings great power and unlimited energy to the table. Jardine brings power, hellacious leg kicks, and an immaculate game plan. Maybe with a little personal bias to one of my top guys I'm gonna have to go with Jardine.
Winner: Keith Jardine, Decision

Larry Csonka: I would like to think that we will see the Wanderlei Silva of old, but I am just not sure we will. Jardine has a lot riding here, as a win gets him very close to title contention. I say we get a great fight, with Jardine taking the big win.
Winner: Keith Jardine, Decision

Bren Oliver: This is a difficult fight for me to pick. On one hand you've got Wanderlei Silva who is a legend in MMA, turns into the Tazmanian Devil once he steps inside a cage, and packs dynamite in his gloves. Jardine, on the other, is a cerebral fighter with a unique style of stand-up, vicious leg kicks, and a respectable win over the very man who last beat Wandy - Chuck Liddell. Both Silva and Jardine have shown the ability to both be knocked out and deliver others into dreamland so it's very possible the bout will end within the first three minutes of action. However, since both men genuinely need the win (though for different reasons), I see each enacting a fairly refined gameplan where neither will open himself up to a KO blow. Silva needs to notch a "W" in order to avoid a four-fight losing streak and serious speculation as to whether or not he's washed up. A win for "The Dean of Mean" would likely put him in line for a Light Heavyweight title-shot against either Forrest Griffin or "Rampage" Jackson. I think their inability to throw caution to the wind will result in something close to what we saw when each faced Chuck Liddell. Expect some nice flurries, but don't be shocked when Jardine keeps Silva at bay with some of his trademark leg kicks and eventually takes home a win courtesy of the officials' scorecards.
Winner: Keith Jardine, Judges' Decision

Randy Harrison: An intriguing match-up because the winner will either solidify their case for a title shot or will keep the wolves of retirement at bay for one more fight. There are rumblings that if Silva loses this fight he will be gone from the UFC so he's going to be fighting like his life depended on it. I don't know about you, but I don't think I'd just stand there and leg kick some guy that's fighting for his career. Jardine is a very good fighter but I don't think he's going to be able to withstand the pressure that Silva will be putting on him. Silva is still a dangerous striker no matter what has happened in his previous fights, and Jardine has shown previously that his chin can be suspect if it's touched. Silva touches Jardine and saves his UFC career, at least for now.
Winner: Wanderlei Silva, TKO, Round 2



UFC Lightweight Championship:
Sean Sherk vs. BJ Penn (c)


Dustin James: I will be the first one to admit it, this is a tough fight to pick. On one hand you have the greatness that is BJ Penn. BJ Penn's MMA losses? He has lost against Matt Hughes, GSP, Lyoto Machida, and Jens Pulver. Penn made up for that loss against Pulver with a victory over Jens at the Ultimate Fighter 5 finale. Penn also holds wins over Hughes, Takanori Gomi, Matt Serra, Din Thomas, and Renzo Gracie. Sean Sherk? He seems the be the king of the decision victory in the lightweight world, and thanks to a steroid-related suspension, hasn't fought in almost a year. But, you can't forget.......Sherk is 32-2 as a pro and is undefeated as a lightweight. Sherk's only pro losses come at the hands of GSP and Matt Hughes. Two guys who have also beat Penn. This will be an amazing fight and is truly one that is difficult to pick. Since I'm a huge BJ Penn fan, that's the way that I'm leaning.
Winner: BJ Penn, Decision

Matt McEwen: For such a big fight with a good bit of hype behind it, is there really any doubt about how this one will go? Yes, Sherk has a chance if Penn tires as the fight goes deep into the championship rounds, but I don't think there is much of a chance of that happening. Firstly, Penn has come into his last two fights in great shape and secondly, I don't think Sherk will survive into the fourth round here. Sherk is essentially a smaller, less skilled version of Matt Hughes, whom Penn submitted once and dominated for two rounds before gassing in their rematch. I'd say the current 155lb and motivated version of Penn is stronger and sharper than either of the 170lb versions that fought Hughes, so how can Sherk possibly hope to deal with that? Yes, his ground and lightly pound strategy would seem the way to go, but that only works if he's able to get the freakishly flexible Penn down in the first place, hold him there and then avoid the plethora of submissions that Penn possesses. Add in the bad blood between these two - a factor that usually leads Penn to his best performances - and you have all the makings for an exciting but probably one sided fight.
Winner: BJ Penn, TKO, Round 3

Adam Tool: Without question, this is the biggest fight ever to be contested for the UFC lightweight title. Despite what you or I may think of him, there's no denying that Sean Sherk is a tough dude. He's got a ton of experience, and has only lost twice in his career (to Georges St. Pierre and Matt Hughes). He's won 12 fights by submission, and has the kind of cardio most fighters would kill for. But BJ Penn is still BJ Penn. Not only that, I feel he's only now starting to truly reach his potential. He's re-focused and more dangerous than ever. As good as Sherk is, I don't know if he can keep up the pace that BJ will undoubtedly set. The longer this fight goes, the more it favors the challenger. With that in mind I expect Penn to try and finish early and often.
Winner: BJ Penn, Submission, Rd. 2

John Curry: While everyone is looking at this fight as a potential match of the year event, I really don't see it going to that level. I have a hard time choosing B.J. because his conditioning is always in question. What isn't in question is his submission work. Sherk on the other hand is probably one of the fiercest specimens in this division and has decent sprawl and extremely hard hands. If Penn shows up ready to go the full five rounds then we could have a MOTY fight but if he continues his history we will be looking at a short fight. Don't forget that Sherk never actually lost his title. He is rightfully coming back for something that is his.
Winner: Sherk, TKO, Round 2

Justin Thomas: These two are both awesome fighters. BJ Penn has excellent stand up and BJJ skills. However, Sean Sherk is very strong and he is a master of taking an opponent down and controlling him there. I disagree that Sean is a boring fighter, he has plenty of wins by submission outside the UFC and it's very difficult to finish fighters, who are good at BJJ like Franca, Florian or Diaz. And "The Muscle Shark" really does not have many chances to finish BJ Penn. The Hawaii native needs to keep the fight on the feet and try to use his striking skills. Penn says he wants to take down Sherk and put him on his back, but I REALLY doubt that could happen. He looked in great shape in his last fight, but who knows, maybe he has become lazy again. But still, Sherk is a wrestler, he's very strong and it would not be smart to try a takedown on him. Sean could be put on his back by sweeping only, in my opinion. Anyway, if BJ shows up motivated, I see him winning the fight. He has more tools to do it, maybe it'll be by a knockout or by submission. Sherk has never been submitted in his career, so most likely, BJ Penn will knock down Sean and finish him with punches, like GSP. Still, even if that happens, Sherk is an outstanding fighter himself and he'll remain the #2 Lightweight in the UFC, in my eyes. BJ Penn, with this victory, could establish himself as a UFC legend and be a dominant champion for this first time in his career.
Winner: BJ Penn, TKO, Round 2

Morgan Marx: I don't think you can say exactly how this will turn out with any confidence. Maybe Penn comes in out of shape. Maybe Sherk's cardio will be the difference. Maybe Penn has pushed Sherk over the edge with the accusations. But I think Penn can capitalize on the mistakes Sherk made against Hermes Franca. Ultra defensive gameplans can work, but eventually they can come back to bite you. Just ask Rangers and Zenit.
Winner: BJ Penn, Submission, Round 2

Jeremy Lambert: ROIDS~! (What Kind?) NANDROLONE~! (How much?) TWELVE~! BJ Penn rules. We all know that Sherk is going to takedown BJ and try to hold him there en route to a decision, it's just a matter of can he takedown BJ? Penn has great balance and flexibility and if his cardio holds up I can't see Sherk winning this fight. Sherk has never been submitted but when you're facing the best MMA grappler in the world, there's a first time for everything. I think Penn frustrates Sherk early, causing him to make a mistake, and finally securing in a rear naked choke for the victory in the 3rd.
Winner: BJ Penn, Submission, Round 3

Fredrick Peterson: I really hope this fight is every bit as good as I am expecting. BJ Penn is a jiu-jitsu mastermind and Sherk is a straight up fire hydrant of a man. I see the stand up being somewhat even with a slight advantage to BJ. On the ground slight advantage goes to BJ (but it gets dangerous with Sherk on top) Cardio advantage goes to Sherk. I do not see Sherk getting knocked out or having his short limbs or huge neck getting contorted into a submission. More likely "the Muscle Shark" will weather the storm the first two rounds and finally put away the exhausted BJ in the 4th.
Winner: Sean Sherk, TKO, Round 4

Larry Csonka: I make no bones about the fact that I do not believe that Sherk should have gotten an automatic title match. He got busted and should have had to win at least one fight, clean, before even being considered. But he got the fight and so here we are. I hope BJ subs him and humbles him.
Winner: BJ Penn, Sub, RD3

Bren Oliver: I'm glad the UFC Lightweight Championship will finally find itself wrapped around the waist of someone who is unquestionably the oversized beltbuckle's owner. While I support the UFC's decision to strip Sherk of the title, I believe BJ Penn would always be subject to criticism regarding the fact Sherk was never technically beaten for it had he not eventually faced "The Muscle Shark". I'm happy to say I will not only be rooting for Penn on a personal level, but I legitimately think he'll win the main event showdown and it has nothing to do with my appreciation for what Baby Jay brings to the Octagon. I think the reasoning is fairly simple. First off, "The Prodigy" should have erased doubts about his conditioning by not only saying he'd started taking training more seriously, but by showing up to face Jens Pulver and Joe Stevenson while being in the best physical shape of his career. Secondly, Sean Sherk's two career losses are the result of fights against Georges St. Pierre and Matt Hughes. Penn has a win over Hughes, and was schooling him up until separating rib cartilage in the rematch, and he also went a strong five rounds against St. Pierre (and was very close to beating the likeable Canadian). I don't think Sherk has anything in his playbook that Penn can't counter or that Penn isn't better at.
Winner: BJ Penn, Submission, RD 2

Randy Harrison: I've been in the somewhat vocal minority that feels like Sherk should have had to win a fight after his suspension before he was thrust into the main event. Whether he did it or not is a moot point because he's back from the suspension now and facing an incredibly motivated and incredibly talented BJ Penn. There's no aspect of this fight that Sherk is better at except for wrestling, and when you put BJ onto his back, you're going to be constantly defending against submissions. I think that Sherk will get a takedown early, try to work from the top, realize he has to defend against constant submissions and his gameplan will end up in shambles. BJ will either get the submission from the bottom or he will end up on top and hammering away like he was against Joe Stevenson. Either way, it will end with Sherk tapping out and BJ solidifying his legacy as one of the best fighters in UFC history.
Winner: BJ Penn, Submission, Round 3