The Weekly MMA CrapSHOOT 6.06.08: Bring on UFC 85!
Posted by Fredrick Peterson on 06.06.2008
The Final Odds for UFC 85 are in! Who is next to challenge for the Welterweight Title?!? What are my birthday wishes for MMA!?!
This my birthday edition of the MMA Weekly CrapSHOOT, so please open up a brew and enjoy this week's edition!
Hope everyone has had a terrific week! After a few terrible and a few amazing fights last weekend we have UFC 85 to look forward to tomorrow! Thank goodness for MMA since hockey is over and I absolutely hate both teams in the NBA finals.
What was better WEC or Elite XC?:
At first glance the Elite XC event was the worst event of all time. (Mind you I had to watch it on the computer with a thirty second time delay; my local CBS decided to run a Children's Miracle Network telethon instead) (F' You CBS). The fights were not all that great and the main event was god awful.
Besides the stupid production and crappy fights the event was a success! People that don't normally watch MMA were talking to me about how awesome it was. Sports sites that normally don't cover MMA were doing articles on the fights! If they were real fans they would have known how crappy they were, but I am very happy that the fights drew in some new viewers. They got the ratings that CBS was shooting for so that means that Network TV fights will happen again. Next time the fights will be better than before, because there is nowhere to go but up!
Now the WEC started off a little weak. The Razor "Rob" fight did little than to get people to change the channel. Regardless of this, the WEC at least has the decency to start a fight in the first half hour of production. Throughout the show they spent only the necessary time to introduce the fans to the fighters and went ahead with the fights. Once we got to the title fights I was really itching for a good fight. I figured that both fights would be over quickly and decisively. While the endings were both decisive, they were not over quickly. They were two of the best fights I had ever seen. Hats off to all four fighters, expect to see Faber and Torres in my fighter of the month list.
Looking back I am very happy with both events. The WEC was better in terms of production quality and quality of fights. I still have to give Elite XC some credit for getting some new fans to tune and hopefully get them hooked!
Where does the Welterweight Title go from here?:
I remember when the welterweight division felt like it had the longest list of title contenders. Hughes was to fight Serra(C) and then contender list went 1.) St Pierre 2.) Fitch 3.) Karo. Since then, we are already coming up on the St. Pierre/Fitch fight and Karo is no longer on the short list of competitors. Where do we go from here?
Thiago Alvez can quickly cement his spot as the number one contender with a win on Saturday. The only problem with this is that he has to go through the greatest welterweight champ of all time, Matt Hughes. While I think Alves has a chance, it is likely that he will succumb to the great wrestling and ground n' pound of Matt Hughes.
If Thiago does not win on Saturday who do we have as a contender? Well nobody really. We have a decent slew of almosts… Diego Sanchez, Josh Koscheck, Marcus Davis, Mike Swick, Jonathan Goulet, Akihiro Gono, and Karo Parisyan. Matt Serra and Matt Hughes are on the list as well but will be fighting eachother next, so they are not going to be fighting for the title until that is over. With Swick and Davis already paired up you can have a mini tournament to decide the number one contender. A reasonable fight would be Kosheck vs Karo with the winner fighting Swick/Davis. This would line up a contender with two legitimate wins in a row.
5 birthday Wishes for MMA this Year:
5. Chris Leben wins the Middleweight title. (Least likely to happen but hey its my birthday I can wish!)
4. Forrest becomes the new Lightweight Champion! (This could actually happen!)
3. No major injuries shake up the Main Event of any card (I can hope)
2. Urijah Faber gets a chance to fight Kid Yamamoto in a Super-Fight! (Come on Dana!)
1. We get to see one Champion vs. Champion fight (Be it Pierre/Penn, Pierre/Silva, Silva/Rampage, Faber/Penn it will make me happy!)
CRAPSHOOT:
Rules: Each week I will be looking at the odds on all the upcoming fights. I have 500 to spend on each event. I can spend under 500 but never more. Picks may be placed from either Bodog or BetUS odds. A pick can be locked in early for desirable odds. Once a pick is made it cannot be removed unless a fighter is pulled. A running Tally will be scored to keep track of all wins and losses.
Remember that odds are calculated off 100. A positive number indicates that 100 down would yield whatever the positive number is plus the hundred you spent. A negative number indicates the amount you would have to put down to win 100.
(BD = BoDog, BU = BetUS)
I Basically went even last weekend. Don't know what I was thinking with Baroni. I must have had a few beers in me. Thank goodness for Faber, Jens definitely had me a little worried about a flash KO the entire fight.
Martin Kampmann -260 (BD) -220 (BU)
Jorge Rivera +200 (BD) +175 (BU)
Should have jumped on this fight when it was better odds. I really like Kampmann though.
Jason Lambert -155 (BD) -145 (BU)
Luiz Cane +125 (BD) +115 (BU)
Should have locked this in at a better price for Lambert.
Paul Taylor -260 (BD) -240 (BU)
Jess Liaudin +200 (BD) +190 (BU)
Still don't like this one.
Fabricio Werdum +130 (BD) +160(BU)
Brandon Vera -170 (BD) -200 (BU)
The betters are going for Vera. Very glad I locked him in at -130 last week!
Michael Bisping -340 (BD) -350 (BU)
Jason Day +260 (BD) +250 (BU)
Bisping is expensive but I am thinking about it.
Marcus Davis -110 (BD) -105 (BU)
Mike Swick -120 (BD) -125 (BU)
Damn, the betters have swung in favor of Swick. Should have waited on this one.
Nate Marquardt -205 (BD) -170 (BU)
Thales Leites +1165 (BD) +140 (BU)
Wow this fight has changed by 75$ since it was first posted on Bodog. I got a good price but still should have locked it in real early for -130.
Matt Hughes -185(BD) -220 (BU)
Thiago Alves +145(BD) +170 (BU)
Big difference between the Odds. Who is the better pick here?
Odds for Ulitimate Figher Finals 6.21.08
Diego Sanchez -500 (BD)
Luigi Fioravanti +350 (BD)
Ouch don't want to spend it all in one place
Spencer Fisher -220 (BD)
Jeremy Stevens +180 (BD)
Hmmmm
Marvin Eastman EVEN (BD)
Drew McFedries -130 (BD)
Looking at the Beastman here.
Jeremy Horn -140 (BD)
Dean Lister +110 (BD)
I love Jeremy Horn but I don't know if he has it in him.
Evan Tanner -225 (BD)
Kendall Grove +165 (BD)
I wish there was more money on Grove, and I am afraid of betting Tanner at -225.
New Picks:
UFC 85, June 7th
92.5 on Matt Hughes to win 50: -185(BD) 6.05.08
I like the odds swinging in Hughes favor, I was thinking Alves last week but I am glad I waited.
Ulitimate Figher Finals 6.21.08
110 on Dean Lister Dean Lister +110 (BD) 6.05.08
Previous Picks:
UFC 85, June 7th
130 on Brandon Vera at -130 (BU) 5.29.08
145 on Nate Marquardt at -145 (BU) 5.29.08
115 on Marcus Davis at -115 (BD) 5.29.08
Totals:
Elite XC, May 31st
Credits Bet: 205
Possible Gain: 295
105 on Phil Baroni at -105 (BD) 5.29.08
100 on Scott Smith at +195 (BD) 5.29.08
-105: Baroni
SCRAP: Scott Smith
-105 Elite XC, may 31st
WEC 34, June 1st
Credits Bet: 350
Possible Gain: 100
350 on Urijah Faber at -350 (BD) 5.29.08
100 won on Urijah Faber
OVERALL WINNINGS (Or LOSSES): -155
UFC 83: +50 (losses on Serra & Lutter, win with Macdonald)
UFC 84: -200 (Losses on Sherk & Jardine, win with Machida)
EliteXC, 5.31.08: -105 (Loss on Baroni, SCRAP with Smith)
WEC 34: +100 (Win with Faber)
Big Event this Weekend I can put myself positive (fingers crossed)! Everyone make sure you head out to the bar and catch the fights, all the Televised fights look good!
