The Weekly MMA CrapSHOOT 6.13.08: Let's DREAM Big!

Posted by Fredrick Peterson on 06.13.2008

We have the Latest Odds for DREAM and EliteXC! Also Dana's Big Announcement! Who is going to fight in the TUF Finale!?!

Welcome back to another fun and exciting edition of the MMA Weekly CrapSHOOT!

I hope everyone enjoyed UFC 85! This week we have three more events and I hope everyone has Showtime and HDNet so they have a chance to see some of the other top organizations. I am excited to see the production of AFFLICTION even though their first card is a little underwhelming. Still, Dream looks to be a fun card once again!



Dana's Big Announcement:



I was pumped considering that the "Big Announcement" was to take place the day that I write my article. As fate would have it Dana changed the announcement to Tuesday. By the time the "Big Announcement" comes out it will have been beaten into the ground before I get a chance to write about it. Regardless if the announcement is really good or really bad I will likely write about it anyway!

Dana seems to deny every rumor or potential possibility that anyone can come up with. According to Dana it is not MSG fights, not Floyd Mayweather, and not a FOX or other Network deal. The only major rumor I have heard that he has not shot down would be the Liddell vs. Anderson "the Spider" Silva fight rumor. While he has shot every rumor down I do not understand why he would change the date. The "MMA insiders" have been up in arms about the announcement and maybe Dana is just trying to milk it for all its worth. Since I have been writing this has been the most talked about topic by a long shot.

I am just hoping that the "Major Announcement" is not a bust. There are so many potential things that could make it worthwhile or at least not a huge disappointment. By building it up this much the MMA community really deserves something HUGE!

These are a few things that I would consider HUGE! (None of them are likely to happen!)

1.) UFC gets Fedor for a one fight deal against Randy Couture as the Main Event of the inaugural MSG show!

2.) UFC hosts an Open Weight Tournament! (I don't care if it is UFC fighters only but it would still be great!)

3.) UFC makes an agreement with another top organization (EliteXC, DREAM, AFFLICTION) and has a joint card pitting the top fighters against each other!

While I don't see anything this great happening my best guess would be that Dana announces a Super fight (Penn/St. Piere, Silva/Liddell, St. Pierre/Silva… etc..) or maybe actually do the WEC unification fights.


Final Episode of the Ultimate Fighter:



Wow, the final episode of the ultimate Fighter is going to be crazy! Not only do we have a fight between two of the top three guys but we have somebody getting kicked out of the finals. According to the trailer for next week somebody kicks the window out of a limo and gets kicked out of the Finale and the UFC entirely.

As of right now I am a fan of Jesse and Amir and hope that neither of them are kicked off. While I think CB is a cock nose I still think he is maybe the best fighter of the season and would like to see him compete for the finals if he wins his fight. While it was not necessarily stated that the booted fighter was in the finals but I would assume that is the case.

When it really comes down to it I think only one out of the final three fighters really has the potential to be kicked off the show. Jesse has had alcohol and anger issues multiple times throughout the show. Amir and CB both seem to have their heads under control and very unlikely to do something that ridiculous. If Jesse is kicked off then who fights on the finale? While I don't agree with it completely I bet it would be Tim vs the loser of the other semi-final fight. This would likely set up a rematch at the TUF Finale. (Tim is good but I think CB and Amir would take him.)

CRAPSHOOT:
Rules: Each week I will be looking at the odds on all the upcoming fights. I have 500 to spend on each event. I can spend under 500 but never more. Picks may be placed from either Bodog or BetUS odds. A pick can be locked in early for desirable odds. Once a pick is made it cannot be removed unless a fighter is pulled. A running Tally will be scored to keep track of all wins and losses.

Remember that odds are calculated off 100. A positive number indicates that 100 down would yield whatever the positive number is plus the hundred you spent. A negative number indicates the amount you would have to put down to win 100.

(BD = BoDog, BU = BetUS)


Ouch, so I am now on a losing streak. If anyone is serious about betting I would take their money and bet directly the opposite of the way that I am betting! All I can do right now is make smart picks and try to chip away at that big negative number!

Odds for Elite XC 6.14.08

Rafael Feijao -330 (BD)
Wayne Cole +260 (BD)

Fair value.

Dave Herman -155 (BD)
Jeremy Stevens +125 (BD)

I love to bet underdogs but I like Herman here.

Murilo Ruo -275 (BD)
Tony Bonello +215 (BD)

Wow, Ninja is a huge favorite here.

Nick Diaz -600 (BD)
Muhsin Corbbrey +400 (BD)

I'm not touching this.

Yves Edwards -150 (BD)
KJ Noons +120 (BD)

Not a bad deal for Yves!


Odds for Dream 4: 6.15.08

Alistair Overeem -875 (BD)
Lee Tae Hyun +575(BD)

Holy Shit! Largest odds I have ever seen!

Kazushi Sakuraba -140 (BD)
Melvin Manhoef +110 (BD)

I figured the betters would love Sakuraba!

Ronaldo Jacare Souza -150 (BD)
Jason Miller +120 (BD)

I like the value of Miller.

Zelg Galesic -260 (BD)
Taiei Kin +200 (BD)

Shinya Aoki -1100 (BD)
Katsuhiko Nagata +600 (BD)

Yes that really is a 1100. I lied before, this is the largest odds I have ever seen!


Odds for Ulitimate Figher Finals 6.21.08

Diego Sanchez -500 (BD)
Luigi Fioravanti +350 (BD)

No change.

Spencer Fisher -220 (BD)
Jeremy Stevens +180 (BD)

Eh.

Josh Burkman -220 (BD)
Dustin Hazelett +180 (BD)

Got nothing.

Marvin Eastman EVEN (BD)
Drew McFedries -130 (BD)

No odds change here.

Jeremy Horn -140 (BD)
Dean Lister +110 (BD)

Already have Dean.

Evan Tanner -225 (BD)
Kendall Grove +165 (BD)

I wish there was more money on Grove, and I am afraid of betting Tanner at -225. Same.


New Picks:

Elite XC 6.14.08

300 on Yves Edwards -150 (BD) 6.12.08

He outclasses his opponent here. Hope this pays off.


Odds for Dream 4: 6.15.08

100 on Melvin Manhoef +110 (BD) 6.12.08

Sakuraba is good but he is getting old. I don't see him leaving the second round.


Previous Picks:

Ultimate Fighter Finals 6.21.08
110 on Dean Lister Dean Lister +110 (BD) 6.05.08 (this is to win 121)

Totals:

UFC 85, June 7th
Credits Bet: 482.5
Possible Gain: 350

130 on Brandon Vera at -130 (BU) 5.29.08
145 on Nate Marquardt at -145 (BU) 5.29.08
115 on Marcus Davis at -115 (BD) 5.29.08
92.5 on Matt Hughes to win 50: -185(BD) 6.05.08

-130 Vera
-145 Marquardt
-115 Davis
-92.5 Hughes
-482.5 for UFC 85


OVERALL WINNINGS (Or LOSSES): -637.5
UFC 83: +50 (losses on Serra & Lutter, win with Macdonald)
UFC 84: -200 (Losses on Sherk & Jardine, win with Machida)
EliteXC, 5.31.08: -105 (Loss on Baroni, SCRAP with Smith)
WEC 34: +100 (Win with Faber)
UFC 85: -482.5 (Losses on Vera, Marquardt, Davis, and Hughes) OUCH!!!!


Wow I sucked it up hardcore. What a nice birthday present for myself. Well, all I can do is try to make good bets and chip away. Enjoy the 3 events this weekend!

As Always The One FP