The Lay and Pray 7.01.08
Posted by Chris Heyward on 07.01.2008
Where Koscheck isn't just a fighter...it's a way of life.
Welcome the very first edition of the Lay and Pray. I am very excited to be writing for 411mania.com and sharing my views and opinions with hardcore MMA fans. Any productive feedback is welcome and appreciated. I hope that you enjoy my own unique perspective on MMA.
Of course on my first day there is no significant news to report. One day I will probably relish one of Dana White's big announcements that will change the UFC forever. Maybe next time he will name Joe Silva as the official matchmaker of the UFC or something. So instead we are left with a pretty weak news day unless you are interested in the Drew Fickett/MFC saga or the return of Edwin Dewees to the big shows. Thankfully we have UFC 86 this weekend as well as a noteworthy Strikeforce show from last Friday to discuss. Welcome to the Lay and Pray.
MMAJunkie.com reports that Rich Franklin is set to return at UFC 88
Thankfully Franklin seems to have come to his senses about remaining at 185 and not moving up to 205 as he had been previously rumored to do. Losses to Anderson Silva aside, Franklin remains one of the top 5 Middleweights in the World and he would be better served to remain at middleweight than jump up to 205; where he would be giving away his greatest attribute in size and strength. While no opponent has been made official I would think that Martin Kampmann or Thales Leites would be the frontrunners for this opportunity to move up the ranks. If you will remember Kampmann was originally supposed to headline UFC 72 against Franklin until a knee injury sidelined him for over a year. Leites is coming off a big win over former title challenger Nate Marquardt at UFC 85. Either choice would present an interesting challenge for the former champ.
The Fight Network is reporting that Edwin Dewees will step up to fight Antonio Rogerio Nogueira at Affliction: Banned
The only good thing that I can say about his fight is that at least it will be quick unlike the Nogueria/Vernon White fight. Nevertheless this is an obvious mismatch as Dewees is an average fighter at best at 185, and would likely serve as an easy victim for Nogueira. It's a wonder how the California State Athletic Commission which has been so proactive in policing MMA would allow a gross mismatch like this to take place under its jurisdiction. While MMA records aren't always reflective of skill level, looking back at Dewees record over the past 2 years (2-4, 3 TKO losses) would show that he has no business fighting someone of Nogueira's caliber.
Drew Fickett is out of his MFC Title fight against Ryan Ford
Apparently MFC was not too pleased with Fickett attempting to take a fight with Luke Stewart at this past Friday's Strikeforce event. Apparently Fickett did not take the necessary measures such as submitting medical records or even a promo picture, which led MFC to believe that he just wanted to take their money and run. Fickett attempting to use Strikeforce for some quick money was the final straw and MFC is no longer interested in having him. In fighter vs. promoter clashes, there is always a tendency to favor the fighter, however, it shouldn't be forgotten that promoters are people trying to make a living as well. I am not going to assassinate Fickett's character because I don't know the whole story; and he could have just been looking to make some money through Strikeforce. For those who criticize the UFC's hard-line stance in dealing with fighters, keep incidents like this in mind.
Strikeforce Thoughts
The big news coming out of this Friday's Strikeforce event in San Jose was the re-emergence of Josh Thomson as an elite lightweight fighter after he defeated Gilbert Melendez for the Strikeforce Lightweight Title. Before his loss to then-unknown Clay Guida in March of 2006, Thomson was considered one of the top ten lightweights in the world. Unimpressive performances against inferior competition as well as personal problems stalled Thomson's career and a loss to Melendez was an afterthought to most. However, on Friday a rededicated determined Thomson utilized a great sprawl and brawl tactics as well as underrated grappling to stifle his opponent for five rounds en route to a unanimous decision victory. Say what you will about what the Strikeforce lightweight championship means but for Josh Thomson I am sure it means a great deal as it re-establishes him among the elite 155 lb fighters in the world. Hopefully Strikeforce will be able to find good opposition for him to maintain this stature. It has been rumored that the winner of the Dream lightweight Grand Prix could be next for Thomson. Any of those four paired with Thomson would make for a great fight.
The other notable fights from Strikeforce included World Combat League star Raymond Daniels getting handled in his MMA debut by 13 fight veteran Jeremiah Metcalf. It's always interesting to see high level strikers enter into MMA and some were comparing Daniels to Cung Le. It looks like those comparisons were premature. Hopefully next time Daniels will be given more favorable opposition for someone of this experience level.
In the other "title" fight Bobby Southworth retained his belt with a unanimous decision victory over Anthony Ruiz to retain his championship as Light Heavyweight King of San Jose. The fight itself was pretty dull and Strikeforce does itself no favors as a promotion by presenting weak fights like this as title matches. The belt means nothing and title fights like this just means five rounds of agony as opposed to three. Strikeforce has been smart by staying small and building a loyal fan base by putting out quality shows; but they should be more careful in presenting low quality fights such as main events.
One final thought on Strikeforce. Following their sellout show in March, attendance was down significantly for this show. It is pretty evident that without Cung Le or Frank Shamrock interest in Strikeforce wanes even in an MMA stronghold like Northern California. For a promotion that could potentially be featured on NBC, Strikeforce definitely needs more stars especially when you consider Shamrock's age and Le's seemingly waning interest in MMA. Strikeforce would definitely benefit from signing Tito Ortiz, who would be helpful in drawing TV numbers. Say what you will about Kimbo Slice; but the reason why CBS and Elite XC got the ratings they did was largely due to him. He is obviously not a great fighter, but he is a star and the more people watching him means more people watching MMA. Tito would bring the same benefit. They should also look to build around smaller weight classes like 135 and 145 where there is a greater talent pool. Why they would think to build a shallow division around Bobby Southworth when they could feature fighters that put on a good show is baffling. If Urijah Faber or Miguel Torres were on the CBS show they would be superstars right now and more than capable of filling out an arena.
UFC 86 Preview and Predictions
For whatever reason there doesn't seem to be much buzz for this week's card, which is surprising considering the popularity of the two men in the main event. Personally I blame it on the increased volume of MMA events as well as a decent but unspectacular undercard that lacks a marquee co-main event. Either way UFC 86 is another solid PPV offering from Zuffa featuring one of the pound for pound best fighters in the world and an undercard of intriguing prospects.
Corey Hill vs. Justin Buchholz- Hill is the very definition of a prospect as he reminds me of a 7-footer in the NBA draft. To put my Jay Bilas hat on Hill is very long and has a lot of upside; it just remains to be seen whether or not he could reach his potential. Armed with a long reach and a solid wrestling base, Hill has the tools to be a good fighter, however it remains to be seen if his biggest weakness; inexperience will bite him in the ass. Fortunately for Hill the UFC recognizes this and gave him a relatively soft touch in the stacked lightweight division. While a 6-footer himself Buchholz finds himself in the unfamiliar role as the smaller man in this fight. Buchholz is coming off a first round submission loss to Hill's TUF 5 castmate Matt Wiman and is in desperate need for a win. I expect Buchholz to be aggressive and make it a fight unfortunately for him Hill will use his wrestling and reach advantage to control the fight. Hill by decision.
Melvin Guillard vs. Dennis Siver- On the topic of prospects besides Corey Hill, there may not be a more physically impressive than Melvin Guillard. When he is good, he is very good, take his destruction of Gabe Ruediger at UFC 63 as an example. However inconsistency and a gaping hole in his ground game have brought Guillard from a rising star to a guy fighting for his spot in the UFC. Siver is in the same predicament as he is 1-2 in the UFC and with a loss likely finds himself out of the big show. Both like to strike and both seem to have the same Achilles heel in grappling with 10 submission losses between them. I am sure both guys will test it out on the feet, although it may come down to whom ever is the better grappler. In this case I believe Guillard will demonstrate some semblance of a gameplan and look to ground and pound his opponent- Guillard by decision.
Jorge Gurgel vs. Cole Miller- In another potential loser leaves town fight two TUF alumni take to the Octagon. Forum punching bag Jorge Gurgel has been on the TUF Record Building Assistance Program, however he has not always seen the best of results. All of his fights, even against the likes of Danny Abaddi, have gone the distance with mixed results. For a guy who was once a favorite on TUF 2 to someone fighting for his UFC life, Gurgel was forced to look in the mirror and he has since sought guidance from MMA legend Matt Hume as well as a sports psychologist. Fellow TUF alum Cole Miller is coming off a TKO loss to Jeremy Stephens that led him to consider moving down to 145. Both guys are well rounded fighters and are reliable for a good show. It will be interesting to see Gurgel's strategy as he is known to like to stand and trade. This could be a problem as he gives up significant reach against the 6'1 Miller. I don't see either guy finishing the other with the result being very close. I think Miller's size advantage makes the difference. Miller by decision.
Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Justin McCully- In a "Get Well Soon" fight former Heavyweight Title challenger Gabriel Gonzaga takes on Justin McCully. Coming off of two straight losses the uber-talented Gonzaga and the UFC heavyweight division are in desperate need of strong performance from "Napao". McCully hasn't fought since last April when he took an uninspiring decision over Antoni Hardonk. While McCully is a BJJ black belt in his own right, I believe Gonzaga to be superior in every aspect of the game even down to the nickname (Napao vs. The Insane One). If the fight gets dragged out, Gonzaga's cardio could become a factor. However I don't believe it will get that far. Gonzaga by 2nd round TKO
Tyson Griffin vs. Marcus Aurelio- Frequent fight of the night candidate Tyson Griffin takes on submission of the night candidate in Marcus Aurelio. Griffin is coming off of 3 straight decision wins over strong grapplers in Clay Guida, Thiago Tavares, and Gleison Tibau. Aurelio is coming off of 2 dominant first round wins over softer opposition including a highlight reel armbar on Ryan Roberts. Aurelio has great BJJ with his chokeout of Takanori Gomi being his biggest win. However he has struggled against wrestlers as is evidenced by his losses to Clay Guida and Mitsuhiro Ishida. Griffin happens to be a strong wrestler and possesses good submission defense. I would also give the edge in striking to Tyson as well. While I think this fight offers the biggest opportunity for an upset, I expect Griffin to put Aurelio on his back frequently and avoid his submissions. Griffin by decision.
Josh Koscheck vs. Chris Lytle- Coming off of an impressive knockout of Dustin Hazelett, Josh Koscheck takes another step up the ladder against welterweight gatekeeper Chris Lytle. I believe that Koscheck is the best fighter to be produced by the Ultimate Fighter and despite a decisive loss to GSP, is still one of the most dangerous contenders at 170. Mixing his athleticism with a great wrestling base and improved striking, it wouldn't surprise me if Koscheck were the one to dethrone GSP. Lytle should provide a tough test for Josh as he has strong boxing skills and good submission defense as he yet to be submitted in 45 MMA fights. Despite that remarkable stat Lytle has lost a third of his fights as he has provided a stepping stone to fighters such as Karo Parisyan, Robbie Lawler, and Thiago Alves. Unfortunately for Lytle, Koscheck will use his wrestling to add his name to the list. Koscheck by decision
Joe Stevenson vs. Gleison Tibau- Both guys are coming off losses although with Stevenson losing his opportunity at the title to BJ Penn and Tibau losing to Tyson Griffin. Both guys are big strong lightweights, who specialize in grappling. Stevenson is almost an exact replica of Griffin although he may have better jiu-jitsu. This does not bold well for Tibau, who was beaten decisively by Griffin at UFC 81. I expect a spirited scrap between the two, however Stevenson having come close to UFC gold will be that much hungrier to win. Stevenson by 2nd round TKO
Patrick Cote vs. Ricardo Almeida- The winner of this fight will likely receive a title shot against pound for pound king Anderson Silva. Cote is riding a 4 fight win streak with the last 3 coming by TKO. Almeida is back from a nearly four year hiatus as he looked impressive against the unheralded Rob Yundt. This is classic striker vs. grappler with the striker having a big weakness on the ground. The last time Cote fought a high level BJJ fighter it was at the TUF 4 finale in November of 2006, in which Travis Lutter armbarred him in a little over 2 minutes. While I am sure Cote has prepared as much as possible for Almeida's ground game, it is still on him to execute which he was unable to against Lutter. Of course Cote has legit knockout power and is always in the fight as long as he can land a punch. In the end 9 times out of ten this matchup favors the grappler and this fight is no exception. Almeida by 2nd round submission.
Quinton Jackson vs. Forrest Griffin- The 3 month hype machine that was TUF 7 culminates in a clash for the Light Heavyweight Championship. 205 has always been the marquee division in the UFC and this fight puts two of the most popular fighters in the UFC against each other. Once thought to be done after getting destroyed by Shogun Rua, Rampage came back to stop Chuck Liddell and beat Dan Henderson to reign as the undisputed best at 205. Griffin also turned the corner after a loss, his a tear-inducing KO to Keith Jardine. Forrest rebounded to beat Hector Ramirez and submit Shogun in one of the biggest upsets of 2007. Neither guy has a particular advantage on the ground as Rampage may have the edge in wrestling and Forrest the edge in jiu-jitsu. However I don't see Griffin submitting Rampage nor do I see Jackson tossing Griffin around considering that Forrest walks around at about 240. I think if a finish were to come it would likely take place on the feet with Rampage having the edge in knockout power and Forrest being a little longer and possibly able to outbox Rampage. It might be interesting to see if Forrest uses the muay thai clinch that has been Jackson's undoing against Shogun and Wanderlei Silva. Griffin has shown a flair for the dramatic whether it be his fight with Stephan Bonnar, close loss to Tito Ortiz or his upset over Shogun. Forrest has seemingly saved his best performances for when he is least expected to win. This seems like a likely occasion for the best of Forrest Griffin. Unfortunately for Forrest this occasion comes against a man who tasted sting of defeat in big fights and is not interested in a second helping. Jackson by 4th round TKO.
