411’s MMA Roundtable Preview: UFC 86 – Jackson vs. Griffin

Posted by Larry Csonka on 07.04.2008

The 411 staff returns to break down the latest UFC PPV!



WELCOME:
Welcome back to another edition of 411's MMA Roundtable Preview! We're back to the land of the UFC, and after a full season of the Ultimate Fighter the Light Heavyweight Title will FINALLY be on the line as Quinton "Rampage" Jackson defends against the Original Ultimate Fighter, Forrest Griffin! Let's meet the staff and break down the card!


THE STAFF:

MMA Rankings guru Dustin James!

From the Fighting Stance News Report, Adam Tool!

A new addition to the team, who will be bringing you the Good, Bad and Ugly of all the major events, Scott Kuczkowski!

WEC Wreckage reporter Jonathan Solomon!

The Cardio Freak himself, Jeremy Lambert!

The man that is chronicling the History of the UFC Matt McEwen!

The Ground and Pound's John Curry!

From the Verbal Submission, Chris Robinson!

The author of the Eight Sides of Steel, Wendell Mitchell!

And finally, I do a bit of everything as the editor, I am Larry Csonka!



~UFC 86~

Corey Hill vs. Justin Buchholz
Dustin James: Corey Hill has an amazing opportunity to kick ass in the lightweight division. He is very green, but TALL for a lightweight at 6'4. Hill is only 2-0 as a professional fighter and is fighting the more experienced and EliteXC, & Icon Sport veteran Justin Buchholz. Buchholz lost in his UFC debut back in January to "Handsome" Matt Wiman, and now the question is....will Buchholz lose his 2nd straight in the UFC and to a former "Ultimate Fighter" contestant? My answer is "yes". If Hill's training has gone like I think it has, he should win this fight.

Winner: Corey Hill, TKO, Rd. 1

Adam Tool: Let's say there's a fighter in the middleweight division that stands 6 feet 4 inches tall. He would easily be one of the biggest guys in that weight class. Now consider that fact that Corey Hill is that tall and fights at lightweight. Anybody that steps in the cage with him is going to give up a ton of reach. Not only that, but Hill packs a lot of power for his lean frame. Bucholz will have the advantage in experience, and he'll also be a lot more comfortable if this one goes to the ground. Still, I think "Hightower" Hill takes this one.

Winner: Corey Hill, TKO, round 1

Scott Kuczkowski: Buchholz walks into this bout having four times as many fights as Hill. If he's smart, Buchholz will take this fight to the ground where Hill's 6'4" height won't be as much of a factor. Hill wants to keep this fight standing where his reach will be to his advantage. I look for Buchholz to take Hill down and pound out an early victory.

Winner: Buchholz, TKO, Round 1.

Jonathan Solomon: Hill is listed as having a four inch height advantage. Buchholz sounds like a cool guy, making fun of the height difference by starting a petition for a maximum height. Buchholz is a solid wrestler but Hill is so lanky, he's tough to take down. However, Buchholz has the experience and should find a way to combat Hill's reach. Corey Hill's lack of experience will catch up with him eventually and that time is here.

Winner: Justin Buchholz, Submission, Rd. 2

Jeremy Lambert: THE REAL DEAL~! Hill looked impressive in his UFC debut but that fight lasted under a minute and we really didn't get to see just how good he is. Buchholz is a decent fighter but he's a guy that Hill has to beat if he wants to become anything in the 155 division. I think Hill will use his reach, keep the fight on the feet, and KO Buchholz.

Winner: Hill, TKO, Round 1

Matt McEwen: Corey Hill has a chance - a chance - to be something really special in the lightweight division. His freakish size for the division creates interesting visuals and interesting match ups. He's greener than Eddie Bravo's stash though, so you never know exactly what you're going to get out of him. Training with MFS helps a lot though, and he should be able to handle the step up in competition that Bucholz represents here. Bucholz will want to take the fight down where he can utilize his submissions, but look for Hill to make him pay for trying to close the distance, and to have a good sprawl for when he does.

Winner: Corey Hill, TKO, Round 2

John Curry: There is one thing I love about Corey Hill and that is the fact that he has some balls. For those of you who have forgotten, Hill lied about his experience to get on TUF and actually made it. While normally I wouldn't get too hopped up over anything like this, the fact that he has that much confidence in himself leads me to believe that this is one tough dude. Now add that he has had some training since then and he should easily win this fight. Bucholz is just an okay fighter and I think fighting someone who is as tall and lanky as Hill will make for a hard night.

Winner: Corey Hill, TKO, Round 1

Chris Robinson: Really? Corey Hill is still a lightweight? Amazing. He's only got a 4-inch height advantage in this fight, which is still good. Bucholz got submitted fairly quickly in his first UFC fight against Matt Wiman. I liked Hill on TUF though, and he was impressive in this first fight. Bucholz is from Alaska though, and you can never count out an Alaskan in a cage fight.

Winner:Corey Hill, TKO on the ground, First Round

Wendell Mitchell: Honesty is the best policy, unless a lie gets you a cushy job beating people up. Mr. Hill got on TUF 5 with claims of being 4-0 when in actuality he was a 2-0 amateur. Now he's 2-0 with two TKO's to his name. Hey Dana, I'm 3-1 (wink, wink, nudge, nudge).

How crazy is it that this guy is a 155 lbs fighter but stands at 6'4"? That is some crazy height and reach advantage for a division filled with 5'7" – 5''10" guys.

Bucholz has the experience, but I don't see him winning this fight. His best bet is also his riskiest. He has to get this fight to the ground to negate the height advantage, but in order to that he has to get close enough not to become TKO victim number three. With that said...

Winner: Corey Hill, TKO, Round 1

Larry Csonka: Hill is a freak with a ton of potential, crazy height advantage and the long limbs could eventually be great if he works his submissions. Buchholz needs to take this to the ground and nullify that size advantage. I say that Hill has been working hard and I see him pulling out the win here.

Winner: Corey Hill, Strikes, RD2


Melvin Guillard vs. Dennis Siver
Dustin James: And Melvin's back......joy?!? Last time we saw Melvin he was (surprise!) creating controversy after his submission loss to Rich Clementi back in December. I have always thought that Melvin was extremely talented, he just let's his emotions overwhelm him. Siver is currently 1-2 in the UFC and coming off a loss to Gray Maynard back in January. He's pretty lucky that Melvin isn't a submission expert as Siver seems to not fare so well against them. This is more than likely a "win or you are out of the UFC" fight. Don't you just love these???

Winner: Melvin Guillard, Decision

Adam Tool: I'm no Melvin Guillard fan, and in fact I'd be perfectly happy never seeing him in the octagon again. However I can't deny that the guy has some powerful punches. He's not a technical fighter but when he lets his hands go it usually gets the job done. His weak point has always been submissions, and that's where Siver has the advantage. I think Siver will be able to weather the storm early, before locking in a choke or an arm bar in the second.

Winner: Dennis Siver, submission, round 2

Scott Kuczkowski: Guillard will probably look for a big KO to try and stay employed. Unfortunately for him, Siver hasn't been knocked out and yet and went the distance with Gray Maynard in his last fight, which is no small feat in itself. I look for Siver to out hustle "The Young Assassin" and eventually submit him. Hopefully another loss will send Melvin back to flipping burgers because I honestly think Guillard is a low-class piece of trash who needs to be fired from the UFC as soon as possible.

Winner: Siver, Submission, Round 2.

Jonathan Solomon: Melvin returns to the UFC for the first time since being choked out by Rich Clementi in the infamous opener at UFC 79. In three of his last five UFC fights, Melvin was caught and submitted. Siver has a plethora of submission wins on his record, granted, not in the UFC. Melvin is taking his return to the UFC seriously so I hope his antics won't be on display. I'll go with the upset.

Winner: Dennis Siver, Decision

Jeremy Lambert: Guillard is back after one fight out of the UFC and he's not fighting Rich Clementi so I don't care about this fight. I demand Guillard vs. Clementi every 4 months because it will never get old. This seems like a bad match up for Guillard because Siver has good takedowns and submissions. If Melvin can keep the fight on the feet, he'll likely score a knockout but I don't think he'll be able to keep it standing.

Winner: Siver, Submission, Round 2

Matt McEwen: Guillard has all the physical advantages in this fight, but he better have worked on his submission defense. Siver may not have had the most impressive showings in his UFC career, but he does have strong submission game, which is apparently Guillard's krypotonite. If - and this is a big if - Guillard has grown up since getting schooled by Rich Clementi, he should know this is probably his last chance in the UFC, and that he needs to make the most of it. He'll put Siver on his back early, but will he be able to defend submissions inside the guard?

Winner: Melvin Guillard, TKO, Round 1

John Curry: I do not like Guillard at ALL. I hope Siver wins this bout. The problem is if Guillard connects with one of his punches Siver will be out. However, with that said, this is how the fight will go, Guillard comes out swinging wildly and having no defense while he throws punches eats a right hand from Siver which leads to Siver jumping on him to force….

Winner: Dennis Siver, TKO, Round 1

Chris Robinson: Oh Melvin Guillard, you are the living end. I've been a fan of Melvin's since his stint on TUF. He's quite the trash talker, but after back-to-back losses it's hard to do a lot of trash talking when you're this far down the card. His opponent Dennis Siver is in the same boat with a 1-2 record in the UFC. This match is do or die for both guys. Melvin should be able to impose his will here and let his hands do the talking. However, he's known for getting in caught in submissions out of nowhere. Guillard is 2-0 on Matt Hughes headlined shows, so I bet he's wishing this fight took place a few weeks back.

Winner:Melvin Guillard, TKO, Second Round

Wendell Mitchell: Is it me, or is there a distinct lack of love for Melvin? He doesn't seem to have very good submission defense as he's been choked out twice in his last three fights. I do find it hilarious that he accused Joe Stevenson of using HGH, then got suspended for cocaine use.

If Siver can get Guillard to the ground, it's pretty much over. Guillard has tapped to triangle chokes, rear naked chokes, guillotines chokes…this guy epitomizes choking. Siver has submitted six of his opponents, so yeah, let's go with that.

Winner: Dennis Siver, submission, Round 1

Larry Csonka: Guillard is a punk and really, I could do with out him. Maybe he and Krazy Horse can get together and make an Indy wrestling tag team, Drunk and Disorderly. Guillard is prone to tapping, and I think that Siver gets him to tap here, sending Guillard either home or to the WEC, where he has rumored to want to go, so that Urijah Faber can own him.

Winner: Dennis Siver, SUB, RD1


Jorge Gurgel vs. Cole Miller
Dustin James: Uh oh. A Jorge Gurgel/UFC fight! I smell a "decision" coming up. In my mind this is how the fight plays out.....they come out swinging, somebody gets the take down, submission's are applied over and over and over, round over. Repeat for next two rounds. I'm not saying it's going to be boring, but I'm pretty damn sure it's going to decision.

Winner: Cole Miller, Decision

Adam Tool: Even though this card has a lot of potential, this is one fight that really does nothing for me. I've haven't been too impressed with Gurgel, and Miller never really stood out during "TUF" 5. For some reason I'm feeling a fairly uneventful decision victory here, and my toss of the coin says Miller.

Winner: Cole Miller, decision

Scott Kuczkowski: Jorge Gurgel…I'd like to see him get a clutch victory, but I don't think he has it in him. Gurgel has done so much to get Rich Franklin prepared for every fight that I hate to see him go out there and get beat again, but I think Cole Miller will have his number. Miller's ground game has looked a little more slick than Gurgel's and I think he can win it if he can keep calm. This fight will probably hit the canvas after about 30 seconds worth of standup and stay there until someone taps.

Winner: Miller, Submission, Round 3

Jonathan Solomon: Gurgel seems like Mr. Decision since all of his UFC fights went the distance. Both are BJJ guys but Miller will have the height advantage. This should be a more technical fight then others on the card. Rich Franklin's pal should be able to pull out a close victory here. Just don't look for a quick finish.

Winner: Jorge Gurgel, Decision

Jeremy Lambert: Gurgel gets his "4 Month Thank Rich Franklin You're Employed" fight while Miller looks to rebound from a loss. Gurgel has stated that he's changing things up this time and that he's coming into this fight with a game plan. I guess his previous game plan of, "get my ass kicked" just wasn't working. Miller has a good reach advantage but I think Gurgel can get inside, takedown Miller, grab one of his long limbs, and submit him.

Winner: Gurgel, Submission, Round 2

Matt McEwen: This could be a fun fight. Neither guy is anywhere title contention in the division, but they're both tough with good ground games, so I'll enjoy this one. So will my wife, since Jorge is in it. That being said, his ground game should be enough to outclass Miller, but he'll have to get the fight to the ground and be on top to really work it. Miller will keep the fight up as long as possible, and try to get top control if it does goes down. Gurgel's stand up is less than stellar, but I think he'll get the fight down early.

Winner: Jorge Gurgel, Submission, Round 2

John Curry: Now while most of my friends here see this fight as being boring, I personally cannot wait to see two BJJ fighters go at it in what could be one of the most traditional MMA matches ever. Hard one to pick but I am going to have to go with…

Winner: Jorge Gurgel, Submission, Round 2

Chris Robinson: Who doesn't like Jorge Gurgel? Rich Franklin's life coach always makes for an interesting fight with his amazing BJJ skills. Granted, Gurgel has had every one of his fights in the UFC go to decision. His opponent, Cole Miller, is still rather new to the UFC and wasn't overly impressive during his stint on TUF. Is there some sort of TUF alumni show? Coming off a loss, Cole will be looking to bounce back with an impressive performance. Cole is actually more of a ground fighter, but I doubt he'll want to roll with Gurgel. Look for Cole to keep the fight standing, while Gurgel will definitely want this fight to stay grounded.

Winner:Jorge Gurgel, Decision

Wendell Mitchell: This match up might produce a quality grappling match. I understand some people find grappling boring, but done right, by the right people, it can be just as exciting to me as a rapid fire exchange of punches. Are these two capable of doing that? I don't know, but I'll give them a chance. They are nearly equal in the amount of submission victories they've pull off, but Gurgel's coming in with a win whereas Miller was knocked out last time he was in the cage. So I'm going with…

Winner: Jorge Gurgel, Decision

Larry Csonka: This is one of those ones people will either hate because they will be on the ground, or that they will love for the show of skill. This one is a toss up for me, so seriously, coin flip time.

Winner: Cole Miller, Decision


Gabe Gonzaga vs. Justin McCully
Dustin James: Wait, are you telling me that a Justin McCully fight is actually GOING to happen? I'll be damned. It seems that McCully has had 15 fights scheduled and then canceled this past year. The fact that he's actually going to be fighting on this card is amazing enough. His last fight was against Antoni Hardonk at UFC Fight Night 9 back in April of 2007. Will taking more than a year off matter when he steps into the Octagon against Gonzaga? Yes, it will. Gonzaga has a fire under his ass right now. After becoming THE hot prospect in the UFC's heavyweight division with impressive wins over Carmelo Marrero & Mirko Cro Cop, Gonzaga's train was de-railed when he lost to Randy Couture and Fabricio Werdum. OK, that's understandable. Those 2 guy's are probably 2 of the top 3 fighter's in the UFC's heavyweight division. Gonzaga REALLY needs a win here if he plans on staying in the UFC.

Winner: Gabriel Gonzaga, Submission, Rd 2

Adam Tool: Welcome back to the octagon Justin McCully! Unfortunately your first opponent in 15 months is a very angry Brazilian giant. It's been a little under a year since Gonzaga challenged for the heavyweight title, and I'm sure he's hungry to get back into the spotlight. McCully will likely be rusty, and has a vulnerable weakness to submissions. Bad news since his opponent is a BJJ black belt.

Winner: Gabriel Gonzaga, submission, round 1

Scott Kuczkowski: This will be Gonzaga's big chance to try and get back on the winning track. I don't think McCully will have the ground acumen to keep up with Gonzaga, and I thing Gonzaga will walk into this fight knowing that another loss could mean his job. McCully probably won't roll over, but I foresee Gonzaga having his hand raised at the end. The downside of this fight is that I don't think either guy will be able to finish the other and that it will be a snooze-fest once both fighters gas.

Winner: Gonzaga, Decision, Round 3

Jonathan Solomon: Who said Affliction has all the good heavyweights? (Note the sarcasm) McCully is a team punishment guy who was considered to be an opponent for Brock Lesnar awhile back as a probable "easy" fight. So that tells you all you need to know. Gonzaga is a BJJ fighter who has never went the distance in a fight, win or lose. He hasn't been on the winning end since kicking Cro Cop's head off. Time for a change. He has got to get back on the right track. I would say if he lost another fight, he may lose his spot in the UFC. However, it's not like they have a ton of viable heavyweights.

Winner: Gabriel Gonzaga, TKO, Round 2

Jeremy Lambert: Is this fight actually taking place? After being rumored to fight Brock Lesnar and then Frank Mir, I'm totally expecting Roy Nelson to come out in place of Justin McCully for this fight. Gonzaga went from two straight main events against Cro Cop and Couture to a co-main event against Werdum to now a dark fight. Sucks to be him. If Gonzaga can get over his mental hurdle, he'll be a tough guy to beat. Problem is he seems to turtle up at the first sign of punishment. I think this will be the turning point fight for him though. He'll battle through pressure and then he'll tap out 'The Decoy'.

Winner: Gonzaga, Submission, Round 1

Matt McEwen: Hard to believe it's been a year since McCully stepped in on short notice and dismantled Antoni Hardonk, but here we are. This will not be a good fight for him. He will be destroyed. Gonzaga needs a win after a very lackluster showing against Fabricio Werdum, and even though he won handedly, McCully was nearly submitted by Hardonk several times. Gonzaga will hurt him on their feet, take him down, and submit him when McCully gives up his back.

Winner: Gabriel Gonzaga, Submission, Round 1

John Curry: This is easy to pick out…McCully is just too rusty and Gonzaga wants another shot at the title. It's simple McCully will be out of breath before the first round is over and as a result will try to hit the mat. As a result he will fall directly into Gonzaga's favorite place to be which will lead to…

Winner: Gabriel Gonzaga, submission, Round

Chris Robinson:Napao! To me, Gabriel Gonzaga isn't overly impressive. A win over Cro Crop got him a title shot, and then he was dominated by Couture. In his next fight, he got knocked out by Fabricio Werdum. In an ever-thinning UFC heavyweight division, Gonzaga needs a win here to stay in the company. For Justin McCully, this is a huge opportunity to move up the ranks and take out a former top contender. McCully will stand and bang, but I think he's going to want this fight on the ground. Look for Gonzaga to lose this fight and then end up in the new Affliction promotion. That's where former top heavyweights go when their UFC career ends right? Right?

Winner:Justin McCully, Decision

Wendell Mitchell: Wow, remember when Cro Cop got KTFO by Gonzaga? Gonzaga will be looking to remind us of that highlight reel moment and unfortunately for McCully, he has all the makings of the perfect victim. If Gonzaga is mentally prepared and ready to showcase his skill I see him easily taking this in the first round by either KO or submission. Since Gonzaga is superior on the ground, we'll go with that outcome.

Winner: Gabriel Gonzaga, submission, Round 1

Larry Csonka: The ultra thin UFC heavyweight division is on display here. Many thought Gonzaga would be the next big deal, but after losing to Couture and Werdum, those thoughts are gone. It's been over a year since McCully fought in the UFC, or period as far as I can tell, but he did win his last bought against Antoni Hardonk. Gonzaga will be fighting for his life here because he NEEDS a win, and I think he'll get it.

Winner: Gabriel Gonzaga, SUB, RD3


Tyson Griffin vs. Marcus Aurelio
Dustin James: Didn't Marcus Aurelio like JUST fight? Oh, apparently that was back at UFC Fight Night 13 and he defeated Ryan Roberts in 16 seconds with an awesome arm bar. One thing is for sure in this fight, he won't be doing that to Tyson Griffin. Griffin is extremely talented and remains the only fighter to have defeated Urijah Faber, that means something. The only blemish on Griffin's record is a decision loss to Frankie Edgar back at UFC 67. Griffin will be hella motivated for this fight and this could end up being YOUR fight of the night.

Winner: Tyson Griffin, Decision

Adam Tool: Once again the task of opening the show with a bang falls on the lightweights. I firmly believe Tyson Griffin will be challenging for the lightweight title within a year. He's got great strength and a top-notch ground game. Plus he's training at Xtreme Couture and those guys always come up with a good game plan to get the win. Aurelio is no pushover, as he'll be busy off of his back working constantly for submissions. However this is Griffin's fight to lose, and as long as he's not over-confident I see no reason he can't pick up the win here.

Winner: Tyson Griffin, decision

Scott Kuczkowski: This should be a good fight where the winner will take a step up the long lightweight division ladder. Both of these guys are going to be gunning for the win, so hopefully this match lives up to its expectations. Aurelio definitely has the edge in experience and has some victories over some top guys, one of whom is Takanora Gomi. The common opponent the two share is Clay Guida, who defeated Aurelio but lost to Griffin. I look for Griffin to come and out work Aurelio and take home a clutch victory.

Winner: Griffin, Decision, Round 3

Jonathan Solomon: Tyson Griffin is one of the top lightweights in the UFC and has a shot to challenge for the championship in the near future. Even though his fights may not be the most explosive (he hasn't finished a fight in nearly two years), he is the only man to defeat the great Urijah Faber. Aurelio finished his past two fights within the first round. This fight could produce the next lightweight championship contender (after the Huerta/Florian fight next month).

Winner: Tyson Griffin, Decision

Jeremy Lambert: I don't know if you guys know this but Tyson Griffin wants the knockout. He's sick of the fight of the night bonus and he wants the knockout bonus. Aurelio just wants the win bonus. Aurelio looked really good in his last fight but that only last 16 seconds. He's got good power and even better jui-jitsu but Clay Guida proved that his wrestling is lacking. If Griffin is smart, he takes the fight to the ground, forgets about the knockout, and delivers another impressive performance.

Winner: Griffin, Decision

Matt McEwen: Aurelio has some of the best jiu jitsu in the sport, let alone the division, but if he had a hard time dealing with Clay Guida's wrestling and pace, what is he going to do with Tyson Griffin? Griffin is in line for a title shot with a win here, and for the life of me I can't see him letting himself get caught in a submission. This won't be the usual excitement fight out of Griffin, but I think he'll but Aurelion on his back early and often and ride out a win.

Winner: Tyson Griffin, Unanimous Decision

John Curry: I am not as sold on Griffin as everyone else is. I think he is a good fighter but not exactly at the top of the heap. This will be a good fight for him, which could make me eat my last statement. Aurelio on the other hand is kind of overlooked in his division and is fully capable of pulling of a great submission win here.

Winner: Marcus "Maximus" Aurelio, Submission, Round 2

Chris Robinson: Marcus Aurelio is no joke. He bounced back from his first UFC loss to knock out and submit his next two opponents. Tyson Griffin is on a four-fight win streak. To borrow a line from Tim McCarver, "One of these men has to lose". I love to quote the worst sports announcer of all time. Think of the classic things he would say if he called MMA! Back to the fight, Griffin goes to decisions, Aurelio finishes fights.

Winner: Marcus Aurelio, TKO, First Round

Wendell Mitchell: I like this match up as it could go to either man depending on the opening seconds, but I'll go with the obvious title contender and pick Griffin in three.

Winner: Tyson Griffin, Decision

Larry Csonka: An important fight for both guys, a Tyson Griffin win has to get him near the title picture, while Aurelio would love to derail him to get himself back near the title. I have high hopes for this fight, lots of groundwork but no decision for Griffin.

Winner: Marcus Aurelio, SUB, RD2


Josh Koscheck vs. Chris Lytle
Dustin James: Ahhh Josh Koscheck. The man who gets no respect in the UFC's welterweight division. However, should Kos get an impressive win here against Lytle.....he will remain in the hunt for a shot at the UFC welterweight title. Unfortunately since Thiago Alves is more than likely getting the winner of GSP/Fitch, if Kos is victorious here, he may end up facing the loser of GSP/Fitch. It's my opinion that Kos gets the "W" here and stays in the title hunt.

Winner: Josh Koscheck, Decision

Adam Tool: Koscheck is certainly one of the best wrestlers in the welterweight division. Sure he got out-wrestled by GSP but we all know St. Pierre isn't actually human, but rather some super fighting machine constructed in the Canadian wilderness. Meanwhile Lytle is the definition of a mid-level fighter. He can pull off an impressive victory but as soon as he steps up in competition he comes up short. I believe Kos takes this one, and I'm hoping he doesn't have to lay-and-pray his way to the decision victory.

Winner: Josh Koscheck, TKO, round 3

Scott Kuczkowski: This is a must-win fight for Koscheck if he hopes to stay at the top of the welterweight rankings. Lytle is going to need this victory in order to just stay a relevant figure in the welterweight division. At this point in his career, Lytle is almost being lapped by younger, stronger fighters, and I really think his glory tears are behind him. I think Lytle is going to want to take this fight to the ground where his jiu-jitsu will be his best weapon. Lytle has good hands, but I think Koscheck's kickboxing will be too much for him. Unfortunately, I also think Koscheck will be better on the ground and will eventually pound out a victory.

Winner: Koscheck, Decision, Round 3

Jonathan Solomon: Well, this should be a solid "highlight-reel" type fight for Josh Koscheck. Lytle is hardly going to compete for a championship in the UFC anytime in the near future. Koscheck is still one of the top wrestlers in the division. Unless Koscheck decides to stand for some reason, he should be able to take Lytle down at will.

Winner: Josh Koscheck, TKO, Round 2

Jeremy Lambert: If we get the Koscheck we saw against Hazelett and Lytle continues with his "balls to the wall" strategy then this could be a fun little battle. I think the winner of this fight will be whoever takes it to the ground though. Koscheck is a world class wrestler and he could put Lytle on his back any time he wants. Lytle isn't a great wrestler but if he can knockdown Koscheck or get inside and get a takedown, he's got great submissions from the top. I think Lytle will get the better of Koscheck on the feet, Koscheck will go back to his wrestling, and he'll ride out the decision.

Winner: Koscheck, Decision

Matt McEwen: Lately, it's been left to the lightweights to put on the high action fights on under cards, but this time around the welterweights get that task. This will be fun for as long as it lasts as both guys can throw good leather (how weird does it feel to say that about Koscheck?), but the difference will come down to Koscheck's wrestling. He's a smart enough fighter to know when he's in trouble on his feet - which will happen at some point with Lytle - and take the fight down. He should pound out a victory from there.

Winner: Josh Koscheck, TKO, Round 2

John Curry: Booooooo Koscheck. I don't like the dude. I can watch his fights with my television off. Lay and Pray. Lay and Pray. Decision win. BOOOOOO!!!!. I hope Lytle wins this fight I really do but I have to put my personal feelings aside and go with the right answer here although I hope it doesn't happen. I mean what can happen if Koscheck wins and Fitch wins? Koscheck won't fight him, they have already said they won't.

Winner: Josh Koscheck, Decision

Chris Robinson:Josh Koscheck has had a great career so far in the UFC, but his loss to GSP set him back. He's back to his winning ways and this fight should be no exception. Chris Lytle has become a gatekeeper in the welterweight division. He'll never be among the elite, but he's a good test for guys looking for a future title shot. That said, Koscheck should try and keep the fight standing to start, to test Lytle, but eventually it'll end up on the ground.

Winner:Josh Koscheck, Decision

Wendell Mitchell: Wrestlers like to lay and pray. It's their thing and it can occasionally lead to less than thrilling contests. Koscheck is considered by many to be one of the best pure wrestlers in the UFC and has laid and prayed his way to more than one decision victory. Both he and Lytle are coming off KO victories, so I don't see Koscheck wanting to throw hands with Lytle. I say he rides out another decision.

Winner: Josh Koscheck, Decision

Larry Csonka: Lay and Pry or Hump and Bump, I think that's how it will go. I hope I am wrong, because Koscheck did win his last fight via TKO, but Koscheck needs to win and he may go to what works.

Winner: Josh Koscheck, Decision


Joe Stevenson vs. Gleison Tibau
Dustin James: Can Joe Stevenson rebound from that tough loss to BJ Penn back in January at UFC 80? In my opinion he will, but Tibau is not a guy who should be overlooked. Stevenson will want to come out and end this fight quickly so he can prove to the world that he deserves another shot at the UFC lightweight title. However, as long as BJ Penn is the man holding that title.....Stevenson may want to think about other options.

Winner: Joe Stevenson, Decision

Adam Tool: Outside of Sean Sherk, Joe Stevenson may just be the strongest fighter in the lightweight ranks. If he wants to take Tibau down, then Tibau will go down. However once they get to the mat Tibau knows exactly how to work off his back, as he'll have the edge in the jiu-jitsu game. I think Joe "Daddy" will look to keep this fight standing, where he'll test Tibau's chin early and often before eventually getting the stoppage.

Winner: Joe Stevenson, TKO, round 1

Scott Kuczkowski: This fight is tough to call. Both Joe "Daddy" and Gleison have both looked impressive in the past. I think Stevenson is going to want to get back to the top of the lightweight division with a big win here. I look for Stevenson come out strong and dictate the pace and position of this fight. I think Gleison will be game and has a definite chance to pull out a surprise victory, but in the end I think Stevenson will be too much for him.

Winner: Stevenson, TKO, Round 2.

Jonathan Solomon: Stevenson has not lost consecutive fights since the beginning of his professional career, nearly a decade ago. Both fighters are well versed in wrestling and BJJ although Tibau is probably the better ground guy. Stevenson can take him down, but will he want to? I can't imagine this fight staying on the feet but if it should, I have no idea who would have the advantage. Tibau winning by any way besides a submission would be an upset in my mind.

Winner: Joe Stevenson, Decision

Jeremy Lambert: This should be an exciting ground battle baring a quick knockout. Stevenson has better power in his hands so if someone is going score the knockout, I would pick Stevenson. Both guys are good grapplers but they're good when they're on top. Whoever can put their opponent on their back first will likely win this fight. What's the over/under on how many times Stevenson goes for a guillotine choke in this fight?

Winner: Stevenson, Decision

Matt McEwen: I think my wife will have a heart attack....Jorge AND Joe Daddy on one card. She'll be in heaven. This should contend with Kos/Lytle for fight of the night, as both guys can go wherever the fight takes them. Tibau should have an advantage on their feet over the short-limbed Stevenson, but will be at a strength disadvantage in the clinch and on the ground. I think their submission games will cancel each other out early, and that strength will be the deciding factor as Stevenson wears him down and starts hunting for another title shot.

Winner: Stevenson, Submission, Round 3

John Curry: Joe Stevenson is absolutely awesome. It has to be said this guy is going go far in the sport. Tibau is a great BJJ worker on the ground and could give Stevenson some trouble. I don't think it will get to that point as Stevenson will rock Tibau quickly.

Winner: Joe Stevenson, TKO, Round 1

Chris Robinson:Stevenson vs. Tibau is the classic wrestler vs. BJJ expert match up. Another TUF alumi! Joe "Daddy" is coming off his recent title shot where he was destroyed by BJ Penn. Thibau is coming off a loss to Tyson Griffin. There must be a winner! Did I already use that joke? If you think this fight is going to be a stand up war, you are sorely mistaken. They makes creams for sore mistakes. Does it show that I don't care about this fight? Which is weird because I'm a big of Stevenson.

Winner:Joe Stevenson, Decision

Wendell Mitchell: Tibau has great BJJ from what I hear, but Joe Daddy is not going to let this fight get on the ground and will look to end this quickly.

Winner: Joe Stevenson, TKO, Round 1

Larry Csonka: It's either rebound or flounder for Stevenson. He is coming off of the brutal loss to Penn and if he wants to get back into the hunt he HAS to win here. Tibau is also coming off of a loss to Griffin. These fights are either dynamic or boring, there is no middle ground. I feel Joe Daddy is up for the task and will put a hurting on Tibau.

Winner: Joe Stevenson, Strikes, RD1


Patrick Cote vs. Ricardo Almeida
Dustin James: Don't be surprised if the winner of this fight is the new #1 contender to Anderson Silva's middleweight title. After a 4 year layoff from MMA, Almeida returned to the sport with an impressive submission victory over Rob Yundt at UFC 81. Almeida holds a victory over some impressive names in MMA such as Ryo Chonan, Nate Marquardt, & Kazuo Misaki. He is 9-2 as a pro with his last loss coming at UFC 35 to Andrei Semenov. His opponent, Cote, is on a 4 fight win streak in the UFC with wins over Scott Smith, Jason Day, Kendall Grove, and Drew McFedries. Cote's last loss came at the hands of former UFC fighter Travis Lutter back in November of 2006. Cote has impressed me during his latest stint with the UFC, however it's my opinion that he has his hands pretty full with Almeida. Can anybody say Anderson Silva vs. Ricardo Almeida?

Winner: Ricardo Almeida, Submission, Rd 3

Adam Tool: Once again it's the classic match-up of strikes versus submissions. The last time Cote went up against BJJ expert was at the Ultimate Fighter 4 Finale where he lost to Travis Lutter, although I imagine that he's been working non-stop on his submission defense in preparation for this fight. Almeida has shown the ability to absorb a fair amount of punishment, but I'm not sure if he's faced anyone with the kind of power Cote has. This one could easily go either way, but I'm taking "The Predator."

Winner: Patrick Cote, TKO, round 2

Scott Kuczkowski: This fight is simple. Cote is going to want to hit Ricardo so hard his mom will die. Everyone knows Cote has heavy hands, including Almeida. Cote has been submitted before though, so I think Ricardo is going to pressure him with multiple submission attempts. Not many guys can boast a submission victory over Nate Marquardt, but Almeida can. I think Almeida is going to have to eat some hard shots in order to get this to the ground, but I think he will be able to get the submission when he does.

Winner: Almeida, Submission, Round 2.

Jonathan Solomon: Both men are riding substantial winning streaks. Cote has four wins (three in the UFC) while Almeida has seven straight (between UFC, PRIDE and Pancrase). Almeida studies under Gracie Jiu-Jitsu and is a submission threat. Although Cote has power and that can end the fight at any point, Almeida will catch him.

Winner: Ricardo Almeida, Submission, Round 2

Jeremy Lambert: Cote wants to stand, Almeida doesn't. Cote has a deadly right hand that Almeida obviously has to avoid. Almeida doesn't have a great takedown but neither does Travis Lutter and he was able to quickly takedown and submit Cote. In a striker vs. grappler battler the sexy pick is the grappler unless the striker has a LEGENDARY SPRAWL~! Cote doesn't have that. I'll take Almeida.

Winner: Almeida, Submission, Round 1

Matt McEwen: While I'm interested in this fight, how the hell is it the semi-main? Either way, this should be interesting. Cote is a banger with some decided weaknesses in his submission defense, while Almeida is less than dangerous on his feet but has some of the best jiu jitsu in he division. I think Cote has been operating at peak ability the last few fights, but he's been in there against guys willing to play to his strengths. Almedia is smart and ego-less enough that he will not play into that game, and should get the fight down. I'd love to pick my fellow Canuck here, but I can't.

Winner: Ricardo Almeida, Subission, Round 1

John Curry: Cote, Cote, COTE! Got to love singing that. Cote has been on a streak in the MMA world since his TUF days. Yeah everyone knows this is Submission vs. Strikers but Cote is just too hard for Almeida to beat if he can't take him down. However, it seems that taking fighters down is easier than knocking them out.

Winner: Ricardo Almeida, Submission, Round 2

Chris Robinson: Patrick Cote likes to punch people. Ricardo Almeida likes to jiu-jitsu people. This is a big test for Almeida. His first fight back from his four-year layoff was a gift. No offense to all the Rob Yundt fans out there. For Cote, this fight will probably put him one fight away from a title shot. After beginning his UFC career with four straight losses, I'm shocked Cote was even given another chance to compete. His last two victories were by TKO and I don't think this one will be any different. Almeida is a seasoned fighter, but Cote is on a major roll right now.

Winner:Patrick Cote, KO, First Round

Wendell Mitchell: Cote may have worked on his ground game since Lutter submitted him, but I'm picking Almeida. I'm sure he's well aware of Cote's striking ability and will take this to the mat as quick as he can. Once there, I see Cote putting up a valiant effort, maybe even holding out until the end of the first round, but in the end, Almeida will win the bout and potential title shot.

Winner: Ricardo Almeida, Submission, Round 2

Larry Csonka: Cote wants to hang and bang, and while he is riding a four fight streak, three by TKO, that could be his undoing. Almeida, is rocking on seven straight wins and needs to take this to the ground to nullify those hands of Cote. I think he does that and makes it a long night for Cote.

Winner: Ricardo Almeida, Decision


LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT TITLE BOUT: Rampage Jackson © vs. Forrest Griffin
Dustin James: This is such A HARD FIGHT for me too pick!! This could be the toughest one for me personally since my stint here at 411 began. On one hand you have the former PRIDE veteran Quinton "Rampage" Jackson who has torn through the competition thus far in the UFC on his way to becoming UFC light heavyweight champion and one of the "faces" of the company. On the other hand you have Forrest Griffin who is the UFC's home grown star who can basically beat anybody in the game, but can also lose just as quick. I was one of the many people who picked Shogun Rua over Forrest and was shocked with the way Forrest stuck it too Shogun. Can Forrest pull that performance off twice in a row? One thing you have to remember is.......Rampage is not Shogun. Actually, Shogun holds a victory over Rampage. So if you want to use MMAth that would mean Forrest will become the new UFC lightweight champion. Oh, and Randy Couture predicts Griffin to beat Rampage and Couture is ALWAYS right......so that means........

Winner: AND STILL UFC light heavyweight champion, Quinton Jackson, Decision

Adam Tool: At last we come to the main event, and it's one of the hardest fights to pick. Rampage has been on a…well…on a rampage since coming to the UFC. Griffin meanwhile made the world stand up and take him seriously by choking out Shogun back at UFC 76. Griffin has been training with Randy Couture and reportedly working diligently on his ground game, but if Dan Henderson couldn't get Rampage to the ground what chance does Forrest have? Obviously Rampage packs a ton of power in his fists, but Forrest has shown an incredibly tough chin in the past. I love both fighters and have agonized long and hard about who I think will win, but in the end I'm going to root for the underdog.

Winner and NEW UFC light heavyweight champion: Forrest Griffin, decision

Scott Kuczkowski: Well, this is it, isn't it? This one is for all the marbles. I think Rampage is going to want to keep this fight on the feet and go for the big KO. Rampage has already stated that he thinks he has a better chin than Forrest and has questioned his punching power, so I think he will be happy to stand and trade. Forrest is going to have to push and win this fight wherever he can. I don't think he needs to worry about a big KO from Rampage, but I don't think he wants to set himself up for another Jardine incident. I see Forrest pushing and dictating the pace of this fight until he finds the opening he needs.

Winner: Griffin, TKO, Round 4

Jonathan Solomon: The fight that TUF was built around for several months. I am sure there are still people out there criticizing Forrest for being a TUF-Alumnus, even after his chokeout win of Shogun Rua. Those people need to take off their blinders and see that Forrest is a pretty damn good fighter, regardless of how he got his UFC start. He can obviously take a beating and stay on his feet. Rampage is arguably the best champion in the UFC (although you can make as good of an argument for Anderson Silva or B.J. Penn). Forrest will pose a tough test for the champ, but Rampage is still too dominant. Anything can happen, but Dan Henderson was controlled for five long rounds. Rampage is not going to tire out and he can handle himself on his feet. If this fight goes to the ground, Rampage will control it.

Winner: Your winner and STILL UFC Light Heavyweight Champion, Quinton RAMPAGE Jackson, TKO Round 3

Jeremy Lambert: UFC Title Fight of the Year. I'm calling it. The competition right now isn't great with only Sylvia vs. Nog being a great title fight. Still, this fight just has awesomeness written all over it. That or it has quickness written all over it. Jackson is the more powerful striker, Griffin is more technical. Jackson is a better wrestler, Griffin does well with the trip takedown. Jackson has the advantage with the ground and pound, Griffin has the submission advantage. Jackson has a better counter to Griffin's advantages though. Jackson has a really strong chin, his takedown defense is good, and he slams his way out of submissions. A lot of people think Griffin is a dead man in this fight but I gave up doubting Xtreme Couture fighters (especially Randy's main protégé) a long time ago. I think Jackson is going to win but I really think that this is going to be a back and fourth battle.

Winner: Jackson, Decision

Matt McEwen: On paper, Jackson has the advantage everywhere except in the submission game and should win this fight 99 times out of a hundred. But Griffin is he type of fighter that is more than he sum of his parts and usually fights to the level of his opponents. We'll see if he can get himself to the rarified air that Jackson currently occupies, but even if he doesn't, this isn't going to be a blowout. Griffin won't stand in front of Jackson like Liddell did, and won't try to get into a wrestling match with him like Henderson did, so it will be a different kind of fight. My brain is telling me to pick Jackson, but I'm going to be stupid and listen to that little voice in the back of my head that keeps saying "Yeah...but..."

Winner: Forrest Griffin, Decision

John Curry: I hate picking t his fight. Everything that has been said about this fight has been said. Two tough guys with a lot of heart and a great sense of humor get it on in what could be a FOTY match up. I have to go with my gut on this one.

Winner and NEW UFC light heavyweight champion: Forrest Griffin, TKO, Round 3

Chris Robinson:Well here we go! After a season of hatred, animosity, bad blood, disdain, and water gun fights, these two end their blood feud in a five round war. Who am I kidding? These two will probably go drinking after the fight. The only real trash talking for this fight was Rampage saying he wasn't impressed by Forrest's win over Shogun. I wasn't that impressed by it either because Shogun gassed out in the third and showed his conditioning was lackluster. Forrest is still a great fighter, and he's recently been sparring with Wanderlei Silva. Rampage has also stated that won't help him. I think sparring with a guy that holds two victories over Rampage could be just a bit helpful. If there are any chinks in Rampage's armor, Silva might know them. This one will probably be a stand-up war, but Jackson should take Griffin down if he feels like it. We all know Jackson can go 5, but I'm thinking Forrest could gas out by round 4. I love both fighters, so this one is a toss up for me.

Winner:Rampage Jackson, TKO, Round 3

Wendell Mitchell: Our main event for the evening and what more can you ask for? Two men who simply ooze charisma, and unlike a Baroni or Tito, neither man's skills have been diminished.

I love both of these guys. I just love Rampage a little bit more. Forrest's skill keep improving and he's a tough bastard, but has he ever been hit by someone that punches as hard as Rampage? Forrest has better BJJJ, but Rampage is all power and I can't really see Forrest getting a submission. If anything it would set up for some sort of high light reel worthy slam that will effectively take Forrest out of the fight. Nothing against Forrest, it's just not his time to be champ just yet. I expect this to win Fight of the Night honors and for the belt to remain around Mr. Jackson's waist.

Winner and STILL UFC Light Heavyweight Champion: Quinton "Rampage" Jackson, TKO, Round 4

Larry Csonka: Man, I can't seem to fully decide on this one. Rampage is my boy and I think he should take the fight pretty easily, maybe even a KO. But Griffin beat Rua and that scares me. I will just go with my first thought on this, and let's hope for one hell of a main event.

Winner: RAMPAGE, Decision

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