411 MMA Fact or Fiction 07.09.08: Griffin's Chances of Retaining his Belt, Affliction's Poor Marketing, and More

Posted by Bren Oliver on 07.09.2008

Was "Rampage" robbed? Should Gilbert Melendez be considered a "Top 10" Lightweight? Does Tyson Griffin deserve a title shot? Should Jesse Taylor have been allowed to return to the Octagon so soon after his meltdown on TUF 7? Adam Tool and Scott Kuczkowski debate these topics and more in this week's "Fact or Fiction"!

Welcome to 411Mania MMA's Fact or Fiction - the column NSAC Judges unanimously voted the best "Bachelorette" re-cap column on the world wide web! I'm back with another set of opinions as delivered from the fingertips of a few fellows who know a thing or two about Mixed Martial Arts, and back from my "4th of July" trip to the beach for that matter. For any crossover readership who happens to read my other column, "Punch Drunk Hangover", rest assured PDH will be back in all its glory next Monday and will definitely include my thoughts on the mixed card that was UFC 86. However, you're here for "Fact or Fiction", and not shameless self promotion, so let me first introduce this week's contributors and then skate on into our six subjects.

First up is a newcomer to both "Fact or Fiction" and the 411Mania MMA team. You may recognize Scott "Kuch" Kuczkowski from the comments he often leaves on MMA articles, as well as one of our Zone's newest features - "The Good, The Bad, and the Ugly" - where he breaks down events in a manner Sergio Leone and Clint Eastwood would be proud of. Across the aisle from Kuczkowski is a familiar face with more familiar keystrokes, Adam Tool, whose news report "The Fightin Stance News" can be found closing out every work-week with a solid dose of insight and opinion. And, of course, there are the co-stars to this lovely production we call MMA Fact or Fiction - the topics upon which our contributors base their delectable thoughts.

Fellow 411Mania columnists...are you ready? Then, America, with an enlarged heart and an empty skull, I say unto you the words of my Uncle...


ALLEZ FACT OR FICTION!!!!!!!


1. The lack of mainstream advertising for "Affliction: Banned" is inexcusible and will ultimately cost them thousands of PPV buys.


Scott Kuczkowski: FACT. The only thing about this statement that makes me cringe is the whole "inexcusable" claim. I don't know why they don't promote it or if there is some grand scheme that only the boys from Affliction are privy to, but yeah, I can see the lack of advertising costing them down the road. Right now the show is two weeks out and the only place I have seen an advertisement for it other than the internet is on HDNet. I'd like to think that Donald Trump would have made sure that word about this was getting out to the casual fans, but I haven't seen that happen yet. Affliction is going to learn the lesson that a number of promotions have gone out of business for not learning: if you can't draw the casual fans, you won't last for long. Affliction needs to bring in the folks off the street who only follow MMA to the point that they know when to buy UFC PPVs because they see the advertisements for them on Spike. EXC on CBS did a better job of advertising their show. Affliction's lack of advertisement will definitely hurt them.


Adam Tool: FACT. Honestly, are there any MMA fans that don't follow the news online that are looking forward to this show? Example: my brother-in-law is a big fan of the sport, but as a truck driver that spends most of his days on the road, he's barely even able to follow the UFC's schedule of events. The hardcore fans (i.e. most people reading this site) are pumped, but the casual fan has little reason to care about this show. For a new company looking to make it big in the increasingly-crowded MMA marketplace, this is not a good start. Of course we won't know for sure until the show is over and the buyrate numbers are released, but I won't be surprised if those numbers are relatively weak.


SCORE: 1 for 1. It's almost as if the UFC is becoming to Mixed Martial Arts what "Soulja Boy" is to hip-hop music - the flashy, mainstream beat selling millions of records that every bops their head to while underground artists are relegated to late-night rotation. Fortunately for everyone reading/writing this column, the UFC at least has a deep wealth of talent unlike a certain young "rapper". It's a shame so few people know about a card as incredible as "Affliction: Banned", but truly the company has nobody to blame other than themselves, as the consensus amongst hardcore fans and those in the media is that the event has been shamefully underpromoted.


2. Allowing Jesse Taylor to return to the UFC less than a month after the Ultimate Fighter 7 Finale sets a bad precedent in terms of permissible fighter conduct.


Scott Kuczkowski: FACT. I'm a little biased towards this because I'm not a huge JT fan, but yeah, I think bringing him back this soon is bad business. Jesse Taylor is a train wreck waiting to happen on a personal level (wait…it already happened and he was kicked off the finale for it) so I imagine it would only be a matter of time before he screws up again. I don't understand bringing him back this soon unless the UFC is looking to make some money off the fact that the guy acted like an idiot. Maybe they are worried that if they wait too long that no one will remember him at all and are operating under the mindset of "bad press is better than no press." What also confuses me is that Jesse wasn't the most dynamic fighter, so it's not like the fans were missing anything by not seeing him fight. The guy was basically a clone of Sean Sherk but with weaker ground and pound. What would be his finale? Pissing his pants in the Octagon?


Adam Tool: FICTION. Personally I'd be perfectly happy if Taylor never shows up on my TV screen again. He's not an exciting fighter, and he's got the personality of a Cro-Magnum. That being said, all reports indicate that after he was kicked off the show (which finished taping months ago) Taylor made big steps in getting his life turned around. He quit drinking, trained harder, and hopefully he's stopped peeing his pants as well. My philosophy is that everyone deserves a second chance, so I have no problem with Dana White bringing him back.


SCORE: 1 for 2. I hope "Koko the Monkey" has indeed cleaned his life up and is 100% focused on his family and training. Okay, maybe 99% on those things, and 1% on his strangely entertaining poetry. Let's just hope we never hear about him again belligerently running around a casino, and harrassing females and security, because this time, if he screams that he's a "UFC Fighter", he'll be telling the truth and that's something the sport and company definitely don't need to be burdened with.


3. Gilbert Melendez should no longer be ranked as a "Top 10" Lightweight after losing two of his last three fights (against Ishida and Thomson).


Scott Kuczkowski: FICTION. This was a tough one and I actually had to pull up some Lightweight rankings to get some perspective. My whole issue is "should no longer be ranked as a "Top 10" Lightweight". I think he still belongs on that list even though he has lost. His first loss was to Ishida in a pretty dull bout that saw Ishida take him down twice but not really cause any damage. The loss to Thomson isn't necessarily more excusable, but the fact is Thomson out hustled him for five rounds. If anything, I would say that fight alone should drop Melendez a spot or two but raise Thomson's ranking two or three spots. Despite those two losses, I still think Melendez belongs in the Top 10. How many other lightweights out there can boast a 14-2 record and claim victories over Clay Guida, Rumina Sato, and Tatsuya Kawajiri? Give the guy a break.


Adam Tool: FACT. If there wasn't much else going on in the Lightweight ranks, I could see Melendez sticking around in the Top Ten. However it just so happens to be one of the most competitive divisions in the world. You've got guys like Aoki and Alvarez tearing it up in DREAM, KJ Noons asserting his place in EliteXC, Gomi and JZ still hanging around, and of course the dozens of talented fighters currently working under the Zuffa banner (Penn, Florian, Huerta, Sherk, Griffin, Stevenson, etc.). Of course fighter rankings are purely subjective, so your results may differ.


SCORE: 1 for 3. I'm a fan of "El Nino", but I believe hurricane season has temporarily passed and won't be back until claiming another victory or two. He has some impressive wins, but I agree with Tool in the sense Lightweight is as deep as it gets, and losing two of three bouts in a row is enough to drop a guy with 14 wins out of the ten best fighters in the division (outside of maybe being a "Top 5" guy who loses to some variation of Penn/Gomi/Aoki). And really, what does "Top 10" even mean in a group of guys as stacked as the 155-pound class? Melendez is a very talented fighter with a bright future. He needs to tweak his game, perhaps mentally to an extent, and he'll be back banging with the best of 'em.


---SWITCH!!!---


4. Tyson Griffin next fight should be a #1 Contenders' bout for the UFC Lightweight Championship.


Adam Tool: FACT. Without a doubt. He's on a four fight win streak over some very tough opponents like Aurelio, Tibau and Guida. I know some people will hate on Griffin because he can't seem to finish his fights, but there's no doubt the man is dominant enough that he doesn't really need to. I say throw Griffin in there with Sean Sherk and if Tyson comes out victorious then he should absolutely be next in line. The only other option I would like to see is Griffin dropping down to 145 to challenge Urijah, but I'd say that's highly unlikely at this point.


Scott Kuczkowski: FACT. I initially said FICTION for this, but I changed my mind. I think Tyson Griffin right now has done everything he needs to do to be considered a contender for the belt. Do I think he should get a title shot tomorrow? No, but I would agree with pitting him against someone else for a title shot in the very near future. I'd like to see him go against the loser of the Florian/Huerta fight, as I think both fights would be very exciting. Maybe even Sean Sherk. Griffin has only one loss against Frankie Edgar, but has handled the rest of his opponents pretty well. The only other real issue I have with Griffin is his inability to finish. I think this makes him more difficult to market, but I guess if the UFC can market Sean Sherk then they can market Tyson Griffin.


SCORE: 2 for 4. I think most UFC Lightweights are in trouble when it comes to contendership. Dana White stated after UFC 86 that he's going with Penn vs. GSP II depending on the outcome of St. Pierre's title-defense at UFC 87. He also mentioned it meant the winner of Florian vs. Huerta, who is said to be getting the next crack at BJ's belt, would have to wait on the clash of champions to sort itself out. While Griffin may have proven himself worth of a #1 Contender's fight, he's going to have to face off against at least one more opponent before it's going to happen. Sean Sherk would definitely be an interesting choice, as would Nate Diaz (who has expressed dislike of the XTreme Couture Lightweight in the past).


5. Quinton "Rampage" Jackson was more deserving of the judges' decision than Forrest Griffin.


Adam Tool: FICTION. I know our taskmaster Bren will disagree with me here, as I've already been a witness to his outrage over this decision while perusing the 411 forums. There's no question that this fight was extremely close. However, let's remember what Goldberg tells us at the beginning of each show: scoring is based on effective striking, grappling, aggression and Octagon control. While Rampage punched harder, Forrest threw more strikes with more variety. Considering the way Rampage was hobbling around after all those leg kicks, I'd say Forrest was pretty effective in his striking. Rampage had no submission attempts, while Forrest tried two. More often than not Forrest took the center of the cage and was the one moving forward, pressing the action. Like I said it was close, but looking at the entire 25 minutes of action I have to say that Forrest was the winner.


Scott Kuczkowski: FICTION. I think this question is ridiculous. What would be the reasoning behind Griffin getting a decision he didn't deserve? A fix? Is this the WWE? No, it's not. Watch the fight. Forrest Griffin did enough to win the fight. Did he dominate Rampage? No, but he didn't have to. Forrest stuck to his game plan and out struck Rampage. Sure, Rampage probably landed more power shots, but Forrest landed more total punches and kicks. Anyone who thinks otherwise needs to take off their Rampage fanboy glasses and watch the fight again. While neither fighter was ever in danger of being finished, Forrest dictated the pace of the fight more than Rampage did, controlled the striking aspect more than Rampage, and out gamed Rampage. Honestly, Rampage didn't even look like the same guy who went 5 rounds with Dan Henderson. At the end of the second round, Rampage didn't look very confident and almost looked as though he realized that he had underestimated Forrest.


SCORE: 3 for 5. It doesn't have to be a fix for people to exhibit poor judgement. If you don't believe such things happen, I'll direct you to the recent scoring of a judge who gave a dominated Evan Tanner the edge over Kendall Grove or the memorable debacle that was Bisping vs. Hamill. I'll save the long-winded UFC 86 rant for a future PDH, as instead I'd rather state something I believe everyone can agree on. Jackson vs. Griffin II needs to happen in a bad way. The fans want it. The fighters want it. And, while it resulted in a controversial decision at best, the fight was extremely exciting, left onlookers wanting more, and could be marketed as a new "Liddell vs. Couture"-esque saga. The only reason it shouldn't be immediate has to do with Jackson's knee and whether or not he can fight again before January 2009.


6. Forrest Griffin will successfully defend his Light Heavyweight Championship at least one time.


Adam Tool: FACT. There are a number of variables to this question that made it difficult to answer. Mainly, who will Forrest defend his belt against? I don't think Rampage should get an immediate rematch (although I do think he should be only one win away from it) but if he does the fight could certainly go either way. If Machida gets the next title shot, as he should, then I may have to favor him. We could be waiting to see who wins Liddell vs. Evans, and either man could give Forrest trouble. However after his wins over Shogun and Rampage, arguably the top two light heavyweights in the world, it'll be hard to count Forrest out against anyone. He's made a lot of improvements since the loss to Jardine and I think he looks better than we've ever seen him before.


Scott Kuczkowski: FACT. This is a hard call, because we don't know who he will defend against. The reason I'm saying fact is that Forrest has demonstrated that he trains with and takes the advice of some very smart people. One of those people happens to be Randy Couture, one of the best fight strategists around. I think that with the team and trainers he has now, Forrest will be able to prepare for and be ready for just about any opponent he goes up against. Despite all that, I also think Forrest has matured as a fighter in the aspect that he doesn't just want to stand in there and trade punches with people anymore. Forrest learned from his fight with Jardine that just swinging for the fences and hoping to connect does not always work. I think that loss and the subsequent changes he made to his style have made him a better fighter.


SCORE: 4 for 6. The three top contenders, outside of a rematch with "Rampage", are Lyoto Machida, Liddell (assuming he beats Rashad Evans), and Wanderlei Silva. I think those are all bad match-ups for Griffin, though I refuse to doubt his ability to beat any opponent put in front of him. Were I "Kuch" or Tool, I'd be answering this sucker as "FACTION" cause I simply have no idea.


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Join us next week when two more participants discuss "Affliction: Banned", "UFC Fight Night 14", Patrick Cote vs. Anderson Silva, and other issues lingering out there in the Mixed Martial Arts' world ...