411's MMA Roundtable Preview: DREAM 5 (Lightweight Grand Prix)
Posted by Bren Oliver on 07.20.2008
The DREAM promotion crowns the company's first Lightweight Champion as their first Grand Prix comes to a conclusion on Monday, July 21st. Will it be Shinya Aoki, Eddie Alvarez, Tatsuya Kawajiri, Caol Uno, or perhaps a fighter from the reserve bout? Read ahead and find out what a handful of 411 MMA's best and brightest have to say on the matter!
Welcome back MMA fans to another 411 MMA Roundtable Preview! It is a HUGE weekend for MMA as we have THREE big events to cover. Today we'll be taking a glimpse at the conclusion to DREAM's Lightweight Grand Prix. Let's meet the 411 staff members that have taken the time to break down the semi-final pairings and given their thoughts on who they see as the last Lightweight standing!
NOTE: We'll only be covering the Lightweight Grand Prix since we are doing three roundtables this weekend...
THE STAFF:
- Author of "The Good, the Bad and the Ugly", he is Scott Kuczkowski!
- From the "Fighting Stance News Report", Adam Tool!
Ryan Seymour: I have my predictions set on Shinya Aoki, that being said I wouldn't count out Caol Uno. Uno is a veteran of the fighting world, with this bout being his 40th fight of his career. People who think Aoki is going to roll over Uno are very mistaken. Uno has beaten Rich Clementi, Din Thomas, Yves Edwards and even drew with the current UFC lightweight champion BJ Penn. But after seeing what Shinya Aoki has been doing lately, it is hard to pick against him. At DREAM.3 Aoki virtually created his own submission when he defeated Nagata with a mounted gogoplata giving the move a new name called the AOKIPLATA. The only thing not to love about Shinya Aoki is his rainbow colored tights that he fights in. Shinya Aoki has been on a roll lately and I think Uno will challenge him but Aoki will still be able to get the victory.
Winner: Shinya Aoki, Decision
Adam Tool: At this point I don't know how anyone can pick against Aoki. He hasn't been beaten in almost three years, and he'll have the advantage in the jiu-jitsu against anyone he faces in the tournament. It's hard to count out Uno, as he's the stronger fighter with the wrestling background to frustrate any opponent. Still Aoki has to be considered the favorite to not only win this fight, but to win the whole tournament as well.
Winner: Shinya Aoki, Submission, Rd 1
Jonathan Solomon: This may be the most exciting fight of the weekend. Aoki is amazing on the ground and working submissions. Uno has not been submitted in over a decade. If Aoki can get this fight to the ground, he will win. If the fight stays standing, this will be a toss-up. I can't pick against Aoki though.
Winner: Shinya Aoki, Decision
Dustin James: I can't express how much I want Aoki to win here. Uno has the ability and talent to pull of a win, however I just can't pick against Aoki here. This will probably end up being your "Fight of the Night" and let's hope that neither fighter gets gassed/injured and is able to fight in the Finals.
Winner: Shinya Aoki, Unanimous Decision
Scott Kuczkowski: Aoki is the fighter most people think will win this competition, but Uno has the advantage of playing the wily veteran. Aoki has fought a lot of stiff competition, but Uno has faced a "who's who" of MMA throughout his career. I think Aoki is going to be looking to jump into the guard and go for the easy submission, but I don't think Uno will fall for it that easily. I look for Uno to do some things that Aoki might not be expecting and get the win. Yeah, that's right folks, I'm picking Uno for the upset win.
Winner: Uno, Decision, Rd 2
Tatsuya Kawajiri vs. Eddie Alvarez
Ryan Seymour: Styles make fights and the contrasting styles should make this fight entertaining. Eddie Alvarez showed us against Hansen that he has some great stand up skills as well as wrestling ability. Kawajiri is very powerful in the clinch and when on the ground prefers to ground n' pound rather then look for submissions. Alvarez has only one loss which is at the hands of Nick Thompson who is going to face Jake Shields on the upcoming EliteXC card. I just have a feeling that the only American fighter to participate in this Lightweight GP will be the one to get to the final. How he goes in the final is a different story.
Winner: Eddie Alvarez, TKO, Rd 1
Dustin James: Will I end up getting the fight that I wanted since the beginning of this Grand Prix? I have stated in the past that I would love to see Aoki vs. Alvarez. Now, we are just two fights away from that happening. Alvarez is currently 14-1 as a pro with his only loss coming to Nick Thompson, which is not a bad loss by any means. However, Kawajiri is more experienced and has faced tougher opponents than Alvarez has. Will his experience pay off here?
Winner: Eddie Alvarez, Unanimous Decision
Adam Tool: Kawajiri undoubtedly has some big power, but lately he's been making a habit of letting the fights go to the judges. Alvarez packs a big punch as well, and is certainly the hotter fighter at this moment. If it goes to the ground I like Alvarez to take control, but if they keep it on the feet Kawajiri will likely be the favorite. This one is the hardest to pick, but I went against Alvarez last time and I don't think I'll do it again.
Winner: Eddie Alvarez, Decision
Jonathan Solomon: Another possible amazing fight in the making. Alvarez is a hell of a powerful striker. Kawajiri is about as strong, howevever, his last four fights have gone to a decision. Endurance will be a strong factor here. Only chance this ends early is with a big knockout.
Winner: Eddie Alvarez, Decision
Scott Kuczkowski: This is a tough fight to pick. Kawajiri has wins over some very good competition and has faced tough competition throughout the majority of his career. Alvarez is on somewhat of a roll right now and has only ever been stopped once. I think Kawajiri will have the advantage experience-wise, but I think Alvarez will push the action hard enough to take the win.
Winner: Alvarez, Decision
Joachim Hansen vs. Kultar "Black Mamba" Gill (Grand Prix Reserve Bout)
Ryan Seymour: Kultar "Black Mamba" Gill is a tough competitor, don't let his average looking 9-7 record deceive you. Gill has a good chin, this is evident by never being knocked out in his MMA career. His ground game is not the best though. Six out of seven of Gill's losses have came from submissions and it looks like a real hole in his fighting. Hansen is also known for having a good chin. Just recently in Hansen's fight with Alvarez, Hansen was knocked down twice but managed to get back up and last to the decision. The Norwegian, Joachim Hansen has some huge wins over Takanori Gomi, Gesias Calvancanti and Yves Edwards, while Kultar Gill hasn't really beaten anyone worth a mention. Even though Hansen isn't known for his submissions, I can see Hansen exposing Gill on the ground and submitting him.
Winner: Joachim Hansen, Submission, Rd 2
Adam Tool: It's too bad JZ Calvancante is still injured, because I believe everyone would agree that he's more deserving of a potential spot as an alternate instead of "Black Mamba." Plus I think JZ versus Hansen would've been a more exciting fight, especially considering Hansen won their first meeting four years ago. In any case, we'll take what we've got. Gill was a fighter to watch at one point, but his career has gone steadily downhill in recent years. Hansen has had some ups and downs lately as well, but at this point I see no reason he can't win here. Gill does have the submission skills to end this one in a flash, but unless he can catch "Hellboy" I think this should be an easy win for Hansen.
Winner: Joachim Hansen, TKO, Rd 2
Joachim Hansen vs. Kultar "Black Mamba" Gill (Lightweight Grand Prix Reserve Bout) Jonathan Solomon: Gill has a near .500 record and has submitted six times. One way or another, this will end with a submission. If Gill tries to keep it standing, Hansen will go for the takedown. If Hansen can't get the takedown, he will have some trouble.
Winner: Joachim Hansen, Submission, Rd 2
Winner: This fight isn't too difficult for me to pick. I just can't see Hellboy struggling against Black Mamba. And I 100% agree with Tool here. JZ Calvancante would have been a MUCH better choice than Gill, however he wasn't even an option due to an injury. Me so sad!
Winner: Joachim Hansen, Submission, Rd 1
Scott Kuczkowski: I'm a huge Joachim Hansen fan after his last fight with Alvarez. The two tore the house down and Hansen showed a ton of class in defeat. Black Mamba is probably going to be overwhelmed early by Hansen's hands which will then open him up for the submission.
Winner: Hansen, Submission, Rd 1
LW Grand Prix Final (Aoki/Uno vs. Kawajiri/Alvarez)
Ryan Seymour: (Aoki vs. Alvarez) I think betting odds would have this fight happening in the final. Two young mixed martial artists who both have a ton of potential in the lightweight division. In one corner we have the American, Eddie Alvarez who is only 24 years old and sports a convincing record of 14-1. Alvarez has flown under the radar in this lightweight GP, while most of the spotlight has gone on Shinya Aoki. Shinya Aoki will certainly have an extra incentive with a home crowd behind him. Aoki is only 25 years old and has a MMA record of 16-2 with 1 NC. Aoki has had most of the spot light in this lightweight GP, mainly because his controversial fight with Gesias Cavalcante at DREAM.1. Also it could be because his AOKIPLATA at DREAM.4. It will be great to see these two young fighters against each other, both fighters are well versatile fighters. But I think this fight will go to the ground and although Alvarez's ground game isn't bad, Aoki's is just incredible. From the incredible rubber guard that Shinya Aoki has, to the unbelievable submissions he can pull of. I predict that Aoki wins this fight with a submission and becomes the FIRST EVER DREAM GP WINNER!!!!.
Winner: Shinya Aoki, Submission, Rd 1
Adam Tool: (Aoki vs. Alvarez) Certainly I'm not alone in hoping this is the fight we see close out the show. Aoki is a wizard with his submissions, after all how many guys have you seen bust out a move that Bas Rutten has never seen? Alvarez has heavy hands, as we saw when he dropped Joachim Hansen in the first minute of their fight. If this one goes to the ground we'll likely see a battle of attrition, as both fighters will work diligently to get the advantage. If it happens this will likely be the fight of the night, and although Aoki is the safer pick, Alvarez is the sexier pick.
Winner: Eddie Alvarez, Decision
Jonathan Solomon: (Aoki vs. Alvarez) This fight has the ability to be a showstealer or a letdown. It will depend on the condition of each fighter after their first fight. If either does go the distance, will it have a negative impact on the finals? If both go in healthy and as close to 100%, I still can't pick against Aoki.
Winner: Shinya Aoki, Submission, Rd 2
Dustin James: (Aoki vs. Alvarez) Well, here we go. Will my predictions pan out correctly? If they do, then THIS could be your "Fight of the Night" depending on how the fighter's health and stamina are in tact after fighting earlier in the evening. Either way, I can see this going to a decision. Who's going to win however? Alvarez or Aoki? Good question......
Winner: Shinya Aoki, Split Decision
Scott Kuczkowski: I think Alvarez will walk into this fight knowing what he needs to do to walk out the LWGP Champion. The question will be if he can execute. This will be one of the greatest achievements for Uno at this stage of his career if he can win. I think both guys will come out guns blazing and will throw for the fences. If Alvarez can turn this into a slugfest and keep the fight on its feet, I see him taking the decision. If Uno can slow the pace and control things on the ground, I think he can steal the decision. I like Alvarez's chances.
